After three new polls this week – from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research – the BludgerTrack poll aggregate comes in at 53.6-46.4 to Labor, with Labor picking up one each on the seat projection in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. However, the movement is partly down to a methodological tweak involving Morgan, for which bias adjustments are now based only on the pollster’s track record within a year of the poll in question, and not as before over the entirety of the term. The same change was made for ReachTEL a couple of weeks ago. Over the long term, the effect of these changes is neutral – but in the short term they’re favourable to Labor, as both these poll series appear to have leaned less to Labor lately than they did earlier in the term. Newspoll and Essential also reported leadership ratings this week, which have had the effect of furthering Tony Abbott’s decline, while also stymieing Bill Shorten’s gains over the previous fortnight.
Two further snippets of recent attitudinal polling:
• The Guardian relates a Lonergan Research poll had a 57-43 split in favour of taking in more refugees in response to the Syria crisis, although there was a 54-46 split in favour of “Operation Sovereign Borders”, namely boat tow-backs and related policies. The results suggest these were “forced choice” questions, in which the only alternative to jumping off the fence was to hang up on the call – which Kevin Bonham has his doubts about. The poll encompassed 1109 respondents and was conducted on Tuesday night.
• The Australia Institute has conducted online polling (note the self-selecting kind) on extra funding for ABC regional news services, which was found to have 59% nationally and 64% in rural and remote areas. Further polling on the same question specifically targeted the electorates of Eden-Monaro, New England, Wide Bay, Sturt, North Sydney and Wentworth.
Also:
• The loudest of hosannas are in order for David Barry’s election results resource, which features – in the most streamlined, intuitive and accessible fashion imaginable – aggregate and seat-level results for all House of Representatives elections since federation, including preference distributions and preference flow data; facilities to explore data as bar charts, line charts and scatterplots; and interactive results maps which, on top of anything else, mark the first time all historical federal electoral boundaries have been brought together in one place.
• A Liberal National Party preselection process is under way to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the remote Queensland seat of Maranoa. The Chronicle reports that David Littleproud, a manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick, and Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, are “joint favourites”, while the Warwick Daily News narrows it down to just Littleproud as favourite. Other nominees are Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville. Maranoa mayor Robert Loughnan was named earlier, but would seem to have dropped out of contention. The preselection will be conducted by a postal ballot, with the winner to be announced on October 23.
• Liberal MP Andrew Southcott last week announced he would bow out at the next election, after 19 years as member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby. Labor came close to toppling Southcott at its high-water marks of 2007 and 2010, but the 2013 landslide boosted his margin from 0.6% to 7.1%. Southcott is 47 years old, and speculation about his motives in pulling the plug have rested on two factors: his recent failure to win the Speakership, and the threat posed to his seat by the Nick Xenophon Team, notwithstanding that it is yet to announce a candidate. It is expected that the Liberals will be keen to field a female candidate. Sources quoted by The Advertiser suggest potential contenders include Carolyn Habib, a youth worker and former Marion councillor who ran unsuccessfully in the marginal seat of Elder at the March 2014 state election; and Nicolle Flint, a columnist for The Advertiser; and Caitlin Keage, a staffer to Senator Simon Birmingham. Labor has already preselected Mark Ward, a teacher at Urrbrae Agricultural High School, Mitcham councillor and narrowly unsuccessful candidate at the Davenport state by-election in January.
• Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports numbers from the Tasmanian Labor Senate preselection that has seen incumbent Lisa Singh dumped from third position in favour of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. Singh outpolled Short in the rank-and-file half of the vote, which respectively gave 221, 123 and 110 to the incumbents, Ann Urquhart, Helen Polley and Lisa Singh, with Short on 74 and another 14 voters scattered among various also-rans. However, Short closed the gap when the half of the vote determined by unions and conference delegates was added to the total, by 158 votes to 154.
Does anyone know when they are due to finish the Lodge? I’m wondering if Tony might miss out on ever using it?
The party are responsible for giving us the mad bad dangerous Abbott. They have a lot to answer for
@3301 – they’re still re-building the guardhouses. It might be a little while yet.
@samanthamaiden: Barbara Ramjan has just released a media statement + a redacted affidavit incident with @TonyAbbottMHR at Sydney Uni http://t.co/SvqBs3qrL5
It must be handy to have a military arm that can carry out all sorts of war crimes but still shield the political wing from any criticisms.
dwh
So Blair should never have talked to Sinn Fein then.
Tones gets sledged in WA. LOL
http://junkee.com/youre-all-a-bunch-a-wan-keeeers/65456
guytaur of course he should have and did when the time was right. However I doubt Blair ever openly supported the IRA.
[ mb @ 3292
my personal favourite, “it’s all Labor’s fault because they turned the Senate against the Government”. ]
Thats a concept that i still find utterly gobsmacking. Abbott started this term with what i thought would actually be a relatively, RW friendly Senate?? That they are now not i see as completely down to the ham-fisted way the Libs approached legislation early in their term, as well as massive over-reach of sheer unmitigated nastiness in the 2014 Budget.
dwh
Sinn Fein was not a legitimately elected government. Like it or not Hamas is.
dwh
To make it clear. That means Hamas has more legitimacy than the government of Saudi Arabia
[“@samanthamaiden: Barbara Ramjan has just released a media statement + a redacted affidavit incident with @TonyAbbottMHR at Sydney Uni http://t.co/SvqBs3qrL5“]
It was 38 Years ago… Farking GET OVER IT!
Nobody gives a flying shit if someone punched a wall 38 Years Ago but this is the sort of stuff the lefties grapple onto.
I mean Rudd threw a salad on a plane once and abused a flight attendant to the point she was in tears and the lefties got over that one pretty quick
TPOF@3295: Yes indeed. When you think about it, leaving aside Labor and the Greens, the remaining crossbench – from which the Government only needs to get 6 out of 8 votes to pass any piece of legislation – features nobody holding any particularly strong left-of-centre principles (except, arguably, Xenophon on pokies).
They would all be capable of being cultivated to agree to moderate right-of-centre policy changes in exchange for some consideration of their own particular local and/or policy interests.
That the Government hasn’t done a better job here indicates ineptitude. I’m not sure of the statistics, but I reckon they’ve been most successful in getting legislation passed when they’ve been able to do a deal with the Greens or Labor.
Howard and his key ministers showed great mastery of Senate negotiation in how he dealt with the Democrats, Harradine and others. This lot seem a bit lost in the process: they have never seemed to be much good at the interpersonal stuff.
I’m told that Cormann is something of an exception. Likewise Birmingham.
davidwh re. Corbyn and Hamas
Says here that Jeremy Corbyn does not support or condone the actions of Hamas or Hezbollah; just that he thinks that they should be part of any Israel/Palestine peace talks.
[MP Jeremy Corbyn has explained why he described Hamas and Hezbollah as “friends” during a parliamentary meeting on the Middle East.
The Labour leadership candidate said he had used the term in a “collective way” but insisted he does not agree with what either organisation does.
“There is not going to be a peace process unless there is talks involving Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas and I think everyone knows that,” he told Channel Four News.]
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/139578/labour’s-jeremy-corbyn-why-i-called-hamas-our-friends
Imacca – That’s what happens when you use Erica Abetz as your negotiator and make take-it-or-leave-it demands. You are right. An unbelievable own goal. Arrogance personified.
TBA@3312: I know it doesn’t always seem like it here on PB, but Rudd is no longer a player in Australian politics.
It would be rather fun if the ALP addressed all their QT questions to Turnbull, with the preface – “As the next Prime Minister of Australia, do you…”
“@barriecassidy: Ipsos polling Canning with a sample 3 times that of Galaxy. Result tonight. That’ll help those trying to figure out what to do next @auspoll”
[I know it doesn’t always seem like it here on PB, but Rudd is no longer a player in Australian politics.]
Hallelujah.
guytaur #3310
Huh? How did you figure that?
[““@barriecassidy: Ipsos polling Canning with a sample 3 times that of Galaxy. Result tonight. That’ll help those trying to figure out what to do next @auspoll””]
And showing what all other polls have shown… Coalition well ahead, Abbott preferred PM, Libs Primary vote 10% above Labors…
Fairfax, ABC and The Guardian Conclusion: Abbott’s leadershit on the line
guytaur
Ipsos polling came out last night
Millennial@3314: I’m already noticing a trend of Corbyn needing to explain that “when I said this thing, I was meaning something entirely different to what the words seems to mean”.
As I said yesterday, if he goes down this path, he’s stuffed IMO. He’d be better saying something like “that’s right, I think the state of Israel is a dreadful thing – as bad as apartheid – and I therefore support anyone who is trying to bring it down: including terrorist groups, in the same way that I supported terrorists like the ANC in opposing apartheid.”
It’s not an argument I agree with, but I reckon it’s exactly what he thinks. So he should be honest about what he thinks. Otherwise he’s going to end up in a tangled mess.
@3321 – you aren’t that stupid. Context matters.
Mill
Hamas was elected. After the split with the Palistinian Authority.
World says Palestine is a State so elections count.
Adrian – They employ Paul Sheehan because he doesn’t cost much. He’s a lowly-paid shill for the rich. Go figure.
The Ipsos poll is already out and is consistent with Galaxy. I’m not sure it made anything clearer other than the Libs will probably win with a greatly reduced majority.
I’ll believe the Liberal leadership rumours when it actually happens but I am not holding out much hope. 🙁
victoria
Sorry I meant to put posted 19 hours ago. Posted too quickly.
[World says Palestine is a State so elections count.]
With two separate elected governments.
guytaur #3318
The poll Cassidy refers to was the Ipsos poll that was 52-48 to Libs released last night.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/byelection-backlash-threatens-new-leadership-ructions-20150913-gjljtr.html
Domestic Violence first question
I’m not taking X too seriously until we see his candidates. He’s got form with dismal running mates, mainly Bressington.
Fairfax boldly proclaimed back in Feb that there would be a leadershit change and was even telling us who the most likely new leader would be. As in. It already happened.
Hey… when writing the news becomes a bit tedious, just make shit up.
“It was 38 Years ago… Farking GET OVER IT!”
Said no one in the LNP when they went after Julia Gillard and her 20 year old home renovations with her ex-boyfriend.
guytaur #3325
[Hamas was elected. After the split with the Palistinian Authority.]
Yeah, I understand that. What I couldn’t understand was you claiming the Sinn Fein wasn’t.
Good first question. I also note Maidens tweet re Ramjan affidavit.
Mill
Sein Fein had elected representatives but were not a government.
JacetheAce
🙂
Abbott using QT to campaign for Canning
On domestic violence, Abbott gives moralising lecture about ‘all violence is bad’ and promises nothing.
TBA – it goes to his character. It is relevant.
@3333 – Just because you remember something a certain way, doesn’t mean that’s the way it is.
Blessed are the wine makers
Abbott talking about violence towards women in Reps as I type. His actions matter.
The China FTA is an export deal….Abbott
guytaur #3337
[Sein Fein had elected representatives but were not a government.]
Ah, I see. You’re talking about Sinn Fein representatives in Northern Ireland, not in the Republic of Ireland.
“@SamDickfos: OL to PM: Can the PM nominate a single person sitting behind him that think he’s the best possible PM? #qt”
Ruled out of order
Mill
Yes.
Ramjan’s comment gives context to the Minister for Women’s faux concern for domestic violence
Domestic Violence….Abbott Minister for Women….
The one thing not being talked about is the number of men who are victims. Looking at stats the other day I was surprised to find that while a women is killed at the average of one per week, men ate killed at around one every 10 days.
The figures are not they far apart.