BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Tony Abbott overtakes Bill Shorten on net approval in an otherwise uninteresting week in the world of poll aggregation.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research, have made as little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate as one poll did last week, although Labor does at least make a gain on the seat projection in New South Wales. Things are a little more interesting on the leadership ratings, thanks to a new set of numbers from Newspoll (which has only one more poll to go in its present form, not two as I intimated in the previous post). This finds Tony Abbott overtaking Bill Shorten on net approval to add to the preferred prime minister lead he opened up a few weeks ago, and which he continues to consolidate. The improvement in Abbott’s standing since the nadir of the Prince Philip knighthood has been quite remarkable, although his net rating of minus 11.8% is by no means anything to write home about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,572 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. sprocket_

    Abbott set some sort of national record for scaremongering hyperbole today. He reckoned “they” are coming after everyone in every nation with the message “submit or die” .

  2. GG @ 3495

    The paragraph that was most cogent to me was the quote from Rabbi Sacks:

    “Those who are privileged to grow up in stable loving association with the two people who brought them into being will, on average, be healthier physically and emotionally. They will do better at school and at work. They will have more successful relationships, be happier and live longer.”

    Take out or, rather, adapt, the biological element (‘who brought them into being’) and you have a statement that goes through the ages for the best childhood for any child. Sadly, the entire recipe is one that is not available to very many children at all. Blended families, single parent families, adoptive families, foster families are all accepted in our society as, not only alternatives, but improvements where the male and female whose egg and sperm created the child are incapable or unwilling to provide all those other elements that Rabbi Sacks talks about.

    To put it another way – if you measured the outcomes for those who grow up in a stable, loving relationship with one, two, three or more adults responsible with their upbringing with those who grow up with their biological parents without any measure of love, responsibility or caring, you will see that the love matters much more than the biology.

    Indeed, it can be argued (although there does not seem to be the data to support it except from sources where the outcome was pre-determined) that growing up with both biological parents is, perhaps, one of the least important factors of all in the best outcomes for children.

  3. [ “There’s nothing malevolent about Joe, he’s a good bloke; but his preferred mode of debate is stream-of-consciousness,” the MP said. “In this climate, when were being accused of lacking empathy and we’re using a budget to try and make up on fairness, we can’t afford…” ]

    …to have the truth about our real intentions revealed to the voters.

  4. [I understand that you are a fan of Gillard but the words of that tweet above about her not wanting those two journos tell it all.]

    …tells a lot about the journos, you mean.

  5. Jonathan Green
    Jonathan Green – Verified account ‏@GreenJ

    I suspect the next twist in all this will be IS snapping up Sydney investment properties.

  6. Abbott has doubled the debt

    He’s smashed business confidence.

    He’s anti clean energy.

    He’s culturally divisive.

    He’s socially divisive.

    …and Bill Shorten isn’t much better.

  7. JM – that quote was unbelievable.

    These clowns have got away with a great deal by twisting the words of others and their own gaffes to restate things in a different way – and actually succeeded in a compliant media.

    However, the problem with Eleventy’s gaffe is that the fix showed anyone trying to get into their first property, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, how ignorant they really were.

    For starters, they are trying to turn the comment into one about mortgage stress. They are pushing for all they are worth about how they really get mortgage stress. Well, that’s not the problem. The problem that is exercising the minds of so many young and not as young as they were people is getting a mortgage to be stressed about. They simply cannot get in on the ground floor because they are being outcompeted at the purchase point.

    Then, of course, it is the insulting idea – voiced by Sue Boyce last night on the Drum (until I had to turn it off after only six minutes) that the problem is people want too much in their first home – three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Hockey did the same – proudly announcing he had to start with a flat as his first property. They don’t don’t get the problem that first home buyers will take anything as long as it is in a location that means they don’t spend as much time commuting as actually working. I can’t imagine anyone wanting to live within, say, 15 kilometres of Sydney CBD (because they work there) not being prepared to take a unit and holding out for a freestanding property.

    So I don’t know who Hockey and Abbott and the other Liberal boosters think they are trying to convince, but talking empathetically about mortgage stress and then critically about expecting too much is not going to go down well with renters and their families, especially parents, who are just trying to find somewhere to buy where the deposit is remotely affordable.

  8. Rex D

    Now that is a patently foolish remark. Only a PM with a majority in the lower house has the capacity to stuff things up as effectively as Abbott.

  9. I am still trying to understand what Shorten did that was unethical whilst secretary of the union. Can someone explain it to me

  10. Since when did anyone have to do something wrong for the Abbott government to smear them? As with Gillian Triggs, this dog whistling is about the bogan vote.

  11. vic
    It’s some kind of circular, boostrapped thing. Journalists sit around interviewing, quoting and agreeing with each other that its not a good look. See, everyone agrees that its not a good look, so it must not be a good look.

  12. victoria..

    Perhaps this will help ..or not..

    Hugh Riminton @hughriminton
    .@cpyne: “no-one is suggesting @billshortenmp has done anything wrong” but he must answer #AWU qns. TenNewsSydney

  13. lizzie #3513

    I was being generous to Shorten.

    Afterall, Abbott is currently preferred as PM.

    The ALP must install a new leader to maximize it’s chances of removing this crazed PM/Govt.

  14. victoria

    As far as I understand from the blather I’ve heard so far from the LNP the major crime was being a (insert scary music ) “union boss”.

  15. [Can someone explain it to me]

    I’m sure Captain Chaos would be delighted. It’s just that his explanation may not be wholly reliable.

  16. [no-one is suggesting @billshortenmp has done anything wrong” but he must answer #AWU qns. ]
    What a slimy toad that Pyne is.

  17. TA must be heartbroken that a beautiful power station and coal mines are closing. Joe has already told the the workers soon to be unemployed to find a better paying job. Oh and the town of Leigh Creek will be virtually wiped from the map – it must be because of the carbon tax?

  18. Just the Gillard thing all over again.

    – She has to answer the questions.

    What are the questions?

    – I am not going to get into specifics, but she must answer the questions.

    What are the questions?

    Round and round we go.

    Rinse and repeat.

  19. RD @ 3520

    They are not going to do it. So far the only people trying to get Shorten out of the job of leader of Parliamentary Labor Party are purist party members and Greens, who sound like yappy terriers – the dogs that bark as the caravan moves on (as Keating famously put it) – and those who are desperate to distract from the disasters of the most disastrously incompetent government in the history of federation by pointing elsewhere – anywhere else but their own incompetence.

    Within the Parliamentary Party itself, left and right, Shorten is fully supported as leader. By Albanese; by Plibersek; and by the others on the front and back benches. Not a whisper of dissent. Get over it. As I said on the Killing time thread, the worst day of the Rudd and Gillard governments was better for Australia and more competently managed than the best day so far under this circus.

    Quite frankly, if Abbott remains PM the coming election will be the closest to a drover’s dog election in my lifetime. If the voters don’t throw this mob out on their ears come election time I really will wonder what is going on in my country. Their stupidity, ignorance and incompetence is of such a basic level, voters don’t need anyone to tell them how bad they are.

    My view remains that most voters are not focussed on deciding who to vote for because there is no election in the offing. As soon as people start to think seriously about the voting decision, this government is a dead duck. And it’s a dead duck even if they replace Abbott in June next year and go to an election in a reprise of 2010. Because they are just that bad.

  20. TPOF,

    Until you can provide facts to back up your assertion that marriage is a least important factor in a child’s up bringing, then you really just have personal opinion to support your view. Listing the variety of alternatives that exist doesn’t give you anything more than a list, some hokey wishful thinking and a shouty argument who see the world differently.

  21. Rex Douglas #3520
    I really don’t see why that should be necessary.

    If you think a more charismatic MP could challenge Abbott, and the MP is already in parliament, then there’s no need for that person to be the Leader of the Opposition: the MP should just speak their mind and attack Abbott and his gang; if the message is powerful enough, it should stick to Abbott regardless of whom the messenger is.

  22. Rex @3510:

    […and Bill Shorten isn’t much better.]

    With all due respect Rex, I think you couldn’t be more wrong about Shorten. As Union Leader, Minister and Opposition Leader, Shorten has proven himself to be a competent administrator and skilled negotiator. He is nothing like Abbott in either temperament or ability. The problem with Shorten at the moment is he is being too nice. He is letting Abbott get away with far too much and he needs to start tackling Abbott head on. The country simply cannot wait for closer to the election before Labor starts taking the fight to the government, because by then it will be too late. The media won’t hold Abbott to account so Shorten has to.

    Abbott’s comments about wind farms and his stated desire to get rid of more of them is compelling evidence the man is quite demented. He hasn’t got the first clue about how to govern Australia and lay the foundation for future growth and prosperity. As BB has rightly noted, the conservatives, politicians and commentators alike, refuse to accept the responsibility for the future. Instead they play silly culture war games. They are fighting the same battles they fought in the Student Council at Uni. They give not a moments thought to the consequences of their actions and that an illinformed, ignorant comment about wind farms in the morning costs 50 people their high paying jobs in the afternoon. We are being governed by ignoramuses, egged on and encouraged by idiots. It’s time for Labor to step up and whack the shit out of these small minded luddites.

  23. victoria..’s not for me to speculate..

    ..but, but, CLEARLY Mr Shorten has questions to answer..

    …Baldrick!! …BALDRICK!!! have you thought up those questions yet?!!!

  24. It was barely a week ago, that some bludgers were fretting about Labor not being forceful against the citizenship brain fart of Abbott and Co. I for one thought Labor’s position was spot on. As per Essential citing 81% agreeing with the brain fart (as best as it is understood by the voters) Labor’s approach was indeed the right one

  25. markjs

    Shorten’s response to date has been good. He said if he is called by RC, happy to go. I notice that Margo Kingston isnt happy with Shorten’s approach

  26. Re Rex @3510: you can lose the last sentence. Or maybe you can provide evidence for Bill Shorten being guilty of all those things.

  27. [ Mr Abbott replied the location of wind farms was primarily a state government issue but said he agreed they could cause health problems. ]

    Yet again – FDR was right –

    [ A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned to walk forward.

    ~Franklin D. Roosevelt, radio address, Oct. 26, 1939 ]

  28. Leyonhjelm brightens up Abbott’s day:

    [THE federal government could face a tough fortnight as it tries to pass key budget measures, with crossbench senator David Leyonhjelm vowing not to side with the coalition as much as he has done in the past.
    THE Liberal Democrat said he had been annoyed with some government tactics over the past 12 months, especially during the carbon tax repeal debates.
    “I think I’m going to be less pragmatic and more purist,” Senator Leyonhjelm told Sky News on Thursday.
    “I don’t think I’m going to cut the government as much slack as I did.”]

  29. victoria..

    “..I notice that Margo Kingston isnt happy with Shorten’s approach.”

    Oh dear …Bill really is fwarked then.. **sarcasm**

  30. vic @ 3540
    Choosing a metric that suits you doesn’t make for a great argument. You need to explain why “popular opinion” by itself is how you judge the “right approach”.

  31. Some condescending bludger the other day suggested that others were failing to comprehend their argument. Did they stop to think that maybe it wasn’t lack of comprehension, but simple disagreement? Disagreement based on, say, a different opinion of what a political party’s role is?

    I suggest that our politicians have (at least) two roles. One is to network, two is to advocate. vic’s proposed metric is fine for the first role, but inadequate for the second.

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