The third and fourth cabs off the rank in the post-budget polling avalanche are Newspoll and Ipsos, and they reverse the situation of four weeks ago in that Newspoll’s numbers are considerably rosier for the government than Ipsos’s. To start with the former:
• Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last time. However, Phillip Hudson’s report in The Australian (paywalled) suggests Newspoll has junked a strict previous-election two-party preferred result in favour of something a little more speculative, with Labor allocated 80% of Greens’ preferences and 60% of everybody else’s. This compares with respective results of 83% and 47% at the 2013 election. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (up two) and 12% for the Greens (steady). If preference flows from 2013 are crudely applied to these unrounded numbers, it comes out as 52.3-47.7. On personal ratings, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 39% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 35% and down four to 46%. Abbott leads 41-40 as preferred prime minister, following a 38-38 tie last time. The poll had a sample of 1206 and was conducted from Thursday to today, which is slightly different from Newspoll’s usual practice of polling from Friday to Sunday. The Australian has full tables here.
• Ipsos has the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, a sharp turnaround on Labor’s 54-46 lead a month ago. It’s perhaps no surprise that the Coalition’s best poll in a year should come from Ipsos, which has consistently given it its strongest results during its six months of polling for Fairfax. Even so, it’s the best result for the Coalition out of six Ipsos polls thus far, eclipsing a 51-49 reading in late February. I’m presuming this is based on 2013 election preferences, though I should be able to provide a respondent-allocated result shortly (UPDATE: 50-50 by that measure as well). The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up four), 35% for Labor (down three), 13% for the Greens (steady) and 1% for Palmer United (steady). The strong Coalition result is reflected in the personal ratings, with Tony Abbott leading 44-39 on preferred prime minister after trailing 46-38 last time. Abbott is up eight on approval to 42% and down ten on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 41% and up one to 45%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.
Now to budget response. Newspoll has helpfully been providing more-or-less the same suite of questions since the late 1980s, and a comparative view of the current numbers suggests voters have a somewhat above-average view of the budget’s impact on their personal prospects, but an entirely average one with respect to the economy and Labor’s ability to have done a better job. Ipsos likewise asks similar questions to those that were being posed by Fairfax’s former pollster, Nielsen, although it would perhaps pay to read the current figures in light of the voting intention numbers produced by the same poll, which appear to suggest a Coalition-leaning sample.
• According to Newspoll, 20% say the budget will make them better off compared with 30% for worse off. The net rating of minus 10% is the eighth best result out of 29 budgets going back to 1988, although it’s lucky to have its nose in front of successive results of minus 11% in 2009 and 2010. Of the seven that surpass it, five were from the budgetary salad days of 2004 to 2008, the others being 1994 (an even more remarkable turnaround from the horror post-election budget of 1993) and 1998. Ipsos has somewhat better numbers for the government, in this and everything else, with 28% saying the budget will make them better off compared with 33% for worse off. When much the same question was posed by ReachTEL on Wednesday evening, it found 16.4% saying they expected to be better off, compared with 30.3% for worse off.
• Respondents invariably take the view that budgets will be better for the economy overall than for them personally, and this Newspoll result finds 46% rating the latest budget good for the economy versus 28% for bad. The net result of plus 18% is exactly in the middle of the historical range, ranking 15 out of 31 results going back to 1986. Ipsos has a roughly comparable question on whether the budget will be “good or bad for Australia”, which comes in at 54% good and 29% bad, and gets similar responses on fairness (52% fair, 33% unfair) and overall satisfaction (52% satisfied, 35% dissatisfied).
• On the question of whether the opposition could have done a better job, Newspoll’s results are 36% yes and 51% no, ranking it thirteenth out of 30 results going back to 1987.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan comes in on the budget-boost side of the equation, with a headline that the Coalition is in its best position since February last year. The Coalition primary vote of 41.5% is up 1.5% on a fortnight ago, with Labor down two to 35.5%, the Greens up one to 12.5%, and Palmer United steady on 1.5%. Labor’s lead narrows from 53.5-46.5 to 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, although the position is slightly less dramatic on previous election preferences, on which the lead shifts from 53-47 to 51.5-48.5, which was matched in a poll conducted in late September and early October. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2439 (UPDATE: No, turns out it was just the most recent weekend on this occasion – thanks to Aristotle in comments for pointing this out).
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Next to no change on voting intention from Essential Research this week, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 40%, the Coalition steady on 41%, the Greens down one to 10%, Palmer United steady on 1%, and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The budget has 34% approval and 33% disapproval, which isn’t bad as these things go, and respondents were also equally divided as whether the budget made them more or less confident in the government’s ability to manage the economy, at 31% apiece. One point of clarity involved comparison of this year’s budget with last year’s, 45% rating it better and 15% worse. The government particularly seems to have hit the target with small business, as 66% say the budget will be good for them compared with only 6% for bad. In terms of personal impact, 15% say good and 28% say bad, while for the economy overall the figures are 30% and 22%.
geoffrey #1895
Yeah, online site polling isn’t conclusive of anything. They’re only a gauge of a select few who visit certain sites, and not representative of the electorate as a whole.
Kevin Bonham explains aptly. Second-last paragraph on the page.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-field-guide-to-australian-opinion.html
Millennial
Posted Wednesday, May 20, 2015 at 10:56 pm | PERMALINK
geoffrey #1888
What makes you say that Labor internal dynamics are giving the ‘enemy’ a free kick?
——hi what other explanation is there for why he is there?
surely not the fact that he thinks he can do job because that is a personal delusion – it must be something about blocking another candidate, keeping some factional or union control, putting up a veneer of stability (when same dynamics caused instability in first place etc etc) … wasn’t the current leader meant to be a popular one, then why isn’t he? i am being harsh by the way not because i like being harsh (haven’t been until now) or because bill deserves such personally but that times feel desperately urgent again.
an opposition leader should provde he/she would be good as pm and this is not the case
bill has provided some stability in party and in electorate (whether or not a high labor poll would have bee possible can be left aside for now) since election but a change of gear needed now
Millennial
Posted Wednesday, May 20, 2015 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
geoffrey #1895
Yeah, online site polling isn’t conclusive of anything. They’re only a gauge of a select few who visit certain sites, and not representative of the electorate as a whole.
Kevin Bonham explains aptly. Second-last paragraph on the page.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-field-guide-to-australian-
——-are then i must be correct or at least we do have a different of opinion – because SMH online is generally non conservative and as reliable as such polls get – if you choose to ignore or overlook such massive results then do so but at your peril.
basically if rumours that TA wanted to call an election before now are at all correct then there is every reason for him to do so in near future
heaven forebid the outcome for this country
if result is close now why would anyone think shorten can win a campaign for a close result??????????
1893
Do you agree with that article?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/what-is-independent-australia.html
What Is Independent Australia Independent Of?
Article rebukes IA for failing to live up to its claimed standards, mainly by publishing Bob Ellis articles and failing to correct errors in them.
In the fallout from it I am pleased to say Frank Calabrese has unfollowed me on Twitter, though the claim that he has blocked me seems to be incorrect. We also had a pleasant trip down memory lane (not in the article) to the scene of the 2009 so-called “missing Newspoll”, a debate I had forgotten.
geoffrey #1902
But what evidence do we have that Shorten is “blocking another candidate, keeping some factional or union control, putting up a veneer of stability”?
silmaj@1904
Essentially, yes.
Millennial
Posted Wednesday, May 20, 2015 at 11:10 pm | PERMALINK
geoffrey #1902
But what evidence do we have that Shorten is “blocking another candidate, keeping some factional or union control, putting up a veneer of stability”?
————— i said party dynamics were doing that. that is an interpretation, based on guesswork and want of other exlanation of why he ran and why was successful. on other hand i am sure he is a reasonable and consultative party leader within the fed parliament. that is fine. but that is not enough to be a leader – deputy perhas. but leader needs quality above and beyond charisma articulate quick thinking persuasion and yes, strategy and degree of the ruthless when needed
[Like we said Gillard had to go before the 2013 election?
The funny thing is that there is almost no “liberal cheer squad” wanting Abbott.
Its pretty much just TBA!]
You’re part of Abbott’s cheer squad you utter farqwit.
You’re just too stupid to realise it.
Bill Shorten can be ruthless, I have no doubt. I think anyone who gets to be leader of any party has to have a ruthless streak.
I am sick of charisma. I do not think it has much going for it and can lead a party into a mess. There have been plenty of charismatic fraudsters and spivs.
I like Bill’s calmness. I prefer that style and i wonder if the voters might prefer that now, too. Just take the wheel, drive the bus and stop doing handstands and driving with your feet.
[I like Bill’s calmness. I prefer that style and i wonder if the voters might prefer that now, too. Just take the wheel, drive the bus and stop doing handstands and driving with your feet]
Politicians don’t need to be liked but they need to be respected.
Abbott is not liked and a lot of Australians don’t respect him at all and won’t forgive him for the atrocity that was last year’s budget. While Abbott remains leader Labor has a chance of winning the next election.
Bemused
Having read the article three times, having been in UK Christmas for a month, UK employment now at 5.5% the writer is shooting his own foot. Now his defending of Greece really tells you where he’s at.
geoffrey #1908
Do leaders need to be charismatic? I mean, take Dan Andrews election win in Victoria, or Annastacia Palaszczuk’s election win Queensland. They (arguably) didn’t win because they were charismatic leaders; they won because the government and the respective premiers were so tainted in the public eye.
Not that I wouldn’t prefer a charismatic Opposition Leader, but it’s not necessary to win elections.
Puff, I agree, I like it too. The only people who don’t like it are the liberals. Hence their obsession of denigrating him. The harder they try, the more confident I am that he is the right person for the job.
silmaj@1912
You had better read it another 3 times as you clearly haven’t understood it.
He identifies Greece as a special case.
1910
I have no doubt that Shorten can be ruthless. His role in the leadership changes at either end of Gillard`s leadership shows that. The question is whether or not he is ruthless with the correct people at the correct time.
silmaj #1912
But unemployment rates going down aren’t necessarily due to harsh austerity policies.
It’s like saying the Earth’s temperatures are rising because the number of pirates has been decreasing.
(i.e. correlation does not imply causation)
Charisma is vastly over rated.
I don’t recall Howard ever showing much of it. Or even any at all.
Just Me #1918
I was thinking the exact same thing 10 minutes ago!
i agree with tom and i agree with puff
problem is perceptions in general public and no evidence this will do trick …… but who knows. i would prefer someone more proactive and bright in public …..
1917
Did I say they were.
1915
Read it again. His dismissal of bond vigilantes now makes it obvious.
yes howard had his own charisma by 1998 ….
ruthless on occasion only not as matter of course
i think rudd lacked in in calling 2013 election – ran out winning back leadership then tried to play it fair with electorate – he was 3/4 weeks away from Pm his party victory so dumbfounded libs and media
[Tony Abbott may be personally unpopular among middle-ground voters but the group that broke from the ALP at the 2013 election is not coming back to Bill Shorten, with many regarding him as a ranting puppet obsessed with political point scoring, and lacking in charisma.]
Well someone sure as hell is coming back to Labor and Bill Shorten. The 2pp at the last election was 53.5 coalition to 46.5 Labor. At present Kevin Bonham has it at 51.8 – 48.3 to Labor, enough to move about 22 or 23 seats.
There is a lot of crap being talked here tonight.
darn
well good end to any discussion – what you disagree with you deem ‘crap’ … PB at very best … you forgot to mention that regardless of TPP all polls show abbott gaining to and past shorten as PPM. why did you not mention that, and how you be sure that factor has not kept poll narrower than should be and could given spotlight put on leaders in campaign determine outcome? it must be enviable having such a black and white view of politics. perhaps you and TA should have a chat.
I don’t think I’d describe Shorten during Gillard’s downfall as ruthless, rather I’d describe it as desperate to seem influential. He definitely did not come across well at all that night.
silmaj #1921
That’s what you were implying, by “UK employment now at 5.5% the writer is shooting his own foot.”
It suggests that you think, that because the UK unemployment is 5.5% (as it has been constantly falling since mid-2013), and by immediately saying that you think the article, is fallacious (i.e. shooting his own foot), and since the article is primarily about decrying austerity politics; you imply that the anti-austerity article is false because austerity politics led to the UK unemployment rate of 5.5%.
Carey Moore@1926
Perhaps a bad case of ‘buyers remorse’?
[geoffrey
Posted Wednesday, May 20, 2015 at 11:50 pm | PERMALINK
darn
well good end to any discussion – what you disagree with you deem ‘crap’ …]
Geoffrey
On election night 2013 most people here would have killed to have the situation we have now with Labor not only back in the game but leading it. That just didn’t seem possible back then.
You need to get a bit of perspective on things.
[Perhaps a bad case of ‘buyers remorse’?]
No. There wasn’t any conviction in it, so it wasn’t that. It was more a “I think the tide in the party room is going in favour of Rudd, so I want to get ahead of it” attitude.
geoffrey #1925
But the problem with PPM rating is that they skew to the incumbent.
For example; Rudd, in the lead-up to the election, had a large lead over Abbott in PPM ratings, but almost every poll showed Labor losing to the Coalition.
1927
I’m simply implying that the article is an opinion as they all are. The trajectory of the UK over time will work out the authors intelligence. Bearing in mind that many economies have gone in the opposite direction. Sitting and observing will bring a truth.
Ffs. The dole is a whole $230.00 per week!!
[abbott is under fire for suggesting employers “try before they buy” when hiring long-term unemployed people.
Abbott made the comments during an address to the Queensland Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday morning, where he was highlighting a new initiative which allowed people who have been unemployed for more than six months to work for a private enterprise for a month before losing the dole benefits.
“That person can do up to four weeks of work experience with your business, with a private sector business, without losing unemployment benefits so it gives you a chance to have a kind of try-before-you-buy look at unemployed people,” Abbott said.
“What we have permitted for the first time in this budget is, if you like, real work for the dole. Work in a business for the dole,” he said.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/20/tony-abbott-under-fire-over-try-before-you-buy-jobseeker-comment
[you forgot to mention that regardless of TPP all polls show abbott gaining to and past shorten as PPM.]
1. ReachTel gave Shorten 57.2-42.8 PPM. Which is hardly a shabby result. Can’t tell whether that is up or down for him, as I can’t find the last ReachTel that asked that question (going back to at least the 29th March poll).
2. Not particularly relevant anyway. Elections are determined by 2PP, and that is looking okay to me.
Getting too far ahead of Abbott on both measures increases the risk he will be replaced by his own party, and that is not necessarily to Labor’s advantage.
Well, my bus got caught behind the “blame Labor for the bad traffic” travelling billboard today. Who could possibly have thought this was a good idea?
Theotherone
Abbott and his side kick Matthew Guy
[ “That person can do up to four weeks of work experience with your business, with a private sector business,…]
I think we can all see where that is going. The employer will just grab a new dole bludger every month, and voila! a free full time dogsbody for the business.
Serfdom, here we come.
Carey Moore@1930
Oh, so a true ‘man of principle’.
Just me
What absolutely shits me to tears is that the dole is a miserly $230.00 per week. Joe Hockey and his ilk claim $270.00 per night to stay in their “partner’s” home. Now that is a bloody rort
silmaj@1932
Some opinions, such as the author of that article’s, are based on fact.
Others are just dreamt up. Like the adherents of Austerity.
Night all
Goodnight all.
I don’t think that anyone ever accused John Howard of being charismatic. He was not particularly liked but he was respected. Many found his plain and plain-spoken and slightly boring persona reassuring, a sort of return to a sort of Menzian golden age of certainties. For most, he didn’t frighten the horses.
Abbott is no Howard or Menzies. He doesn’t do consensus. He is a ferocious warrior of the social / cultural right, loved by his side and despised by a large segment of the population who he sees as his cultural enemies.
I don’t think that he is an economic ‘rationalist’, however, in the way that most of his party (including/especially Hockey, Turnbull, Cormann et all). In fact I don’t think that he is particularly interested in his economy. His positions have been all over the place in that regard. Think his ‘signature’ PPL scheme for example. But the forces pushing for the transfer of power to corporations are happy to have him as his figurehead for the time being, and he is happy to lead them, in the sense that a figurehead used to lead the sailing ships of old.
silmaj #1932
Which ‘economies’ have gone backwards exactly?
Whoever leads Labor toward the next election will face the full wrath of a media still desperate to find something in Abbott. Their current focusing on Shorten’s just an indication of this.
1940 Bemused
The austerity(budget tightening, budget balance, budget deficit reduction) is always hard. Trying to rename or demonise it requires a new world order perhaps Logan’s run.
1944
I’m not going to list all burnt look at france.
[What absolutely shits me to tears is that the dole is a miserly $230.00 per week.]
Not even average rent around here. 🙁
silmaj #1947
How has France’s economy going backwards?
This OCED report doesn’t claim this:
http://www.oecd.org/economy/france-economic-forecast-summary.htm
1949.
You should read the document and look at the figures. This is an economy that has next to zero interest rates and is relying on depreciation to look positive. My australian friends who have invested there no that it heading for cactus. As do the major business reporting economists. The article you posted was a little short