Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Roy Morgan poll records a slight move back to Labor, after last fortnight’s result gave the Coalition its best result since October.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan finds Labor improving from an unusually weak result last time, their primary vote up two points to 38% with the Coalition down two to 38.5%. The Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point, to 12% and a new low of 1% respectively. However, the respondent-allocated two-party result is steady at 53-47, the preference flow evidently being less favourable to Labor compared with a fortnight ago, and the shift on 2013 preference flows is also rather modest, from 53-47 to 54-46. As usual, the poll was conducted over two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, the sample on this occasion being 3314. I believe this and the regular Essential poll are the only federal polling we’ll be seeing this week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in Essential Research’s voting intention numbers this week are a one point gain for the Greens to 11% and a one point drop for Palmer United to 1%, leaving Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 41% and Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. Further questions have been framed with the looming budget in mind, the most striking finding being that 56% believe the Coalition’s policies favour the rich over the “average Australian” (20%), with Labor scoring a fairly balanced response over the available options. Relatedly, it is anticipated that the budget will be good for the well off (49% good, 9% bad) and business (32% good, 17% bad), but very bad for everybody else and for the economy overall (19% good, 33% bad). Eighty-two per cent of respondents signed on to the proposition that “some companies” and “some wealthy people” didn’t pay their fair share of tax. Out of seven listed economic issues, the cost of living rated highest as an issue of concern (87%) with the national debt and budget deficit tied for last place (63%). Opinion on the latest Iraq commitment is fairly evenly balanced, with 40% approval and 44% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

934 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie@41

    fess

    I think the rot set in (Victoria) when it was decided that the cheapest tender must always be accepted.

    As I used to characterise it: “An exercise in seeing who will give you the least for the least amount of money.” I should have added “while superficially appearing to meet requirements.”

    Tenders will try to spot something that has been left out so that they can bid low and then after winning, point out what has been left out of the tender and make a killing on the ‘variation’.

  2. Confessions

    I guess companies capable of running non clinical services at a hospital the size of FSH are few and far between.

    Serco’s record in the UK is terrible but how many other players are there in the field? Having made the decision to go down this road governments are in a bind if the only tenders come from people you would rather not do business with.

    What I wonder about is the extra costs that flow from cancelling a contract. Having set up the systems to have the work done by a contractor that presumably is scrapped and they start again. With a new contractor? with government staff?

    Not so many years ago ministers used to be held accountable for incompetence in their departments. Now they just blame the contractor and move on.

  3. Zoidlord, ‘Any policy that restricts a family/couple to NOT have children, will not work, there has been countless situations where this is the case, especially in China.’

    What does the first part mean?

    I would have thought the Chinese policy of one child per family has been hugely successful in restricting the population growth of China. Naturally, not 100% successful, but effective just the same.

  4. Only 1% difference between Male and Female vote, thats a bit unusual, it did happened 2 months ago, but dont know the last time it was closer than that.

  5. @PeeBee/54

    I have posted on this subject on PB before, and it’s not a successful policy.

    Secondly, to be a successful policy, it would mean that it must be applied to all families, this isn’t the case generally, the rich can have more than one child.

    Thirdly, in countries like China, where One child policy exists, it causes drama for neighbors, because they have to report any one giving birth

    More things can be found on google, just by simply, googling the articles.

    i.e:
    https://freedomhouse.org/blog/china-population-control-machine-churns#.VTTCTJNSXCs
    http://www.newsweek.com/2014/01/24/one-child-policy-one-big-problem-china-245118.html

  6. [Serco’s record in the UK is terrible but how many other players are there in the field? ]

    It isn’t just hospitals, but other areas as well. Prison transport for eg.

    I don’t know is the short answer.

  7. rossmcg

    [Not so many years ago ministers used to be held accountable for incompetence in their departments. Now they just blame the contractor and move on.]
    Exactly why so many pollies lurve privatisation. They can throw their hands up and declare “Nothing to do with us” , “commercial I confidence” or whatever.

  8. rossmcg

    Forgot to add. So although it is our money the people supposedly looking after our interests pretty much abrogate that responsibility.

  9. Very respectful interview by Leigh Sales with Bishop. No interruptions, mainly Dorothy Dix type questions, quite pathetic really.

  10. [62
    adrian
    Posted Monday, April 20, 2015 at 7:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Very respectful interview by Leigh Sales with Bishop. No interruptions, mainly Dorothy Dix type questions, quite pathetic really.
    ]

    Outrageous answers from JBishop. Basically, anything to finger the ‘Aussie Jihadists’ means sucking up to the murderous Iranian regime.

    Q: Torture their own citizens?
    A: They may give us Intel on Aussie Jihadists

    Q: State sponsor of terrorism such as Hamas?
    A: Aussie Jihadists…

    Q: they were the Axis Of Evil not so long ago?
    A: Aussie Jihadists.

  11. A few days in “rural” Australia can confirm that the hatred of Muslims, whipped up by Abbott + media is very real. It was always there of course, but now has been given free spirit.

  12. [Outrageous answers from JBishop. Basically, anything to finger the ‘Aussie Jihadists’ means sucking up to the murderous Iranian regime.

    Q: Torture their own citizens?
    A: They may give us Intel on Aussie Jihadists

    Q: State sponsor of terrorism such as Hamas?
    A: Aussie Jihadists…

    Q: they were the Axis Of Evil not so long ago?
    A: Aussie Jihadists.]

    Next week a mutual defense treaty with North Korea. These guys are dangerously insane.

  13. It’s a wet and blustery night in Sydney. Rainfall recorded since 9:00 over 60mm at stations near the coast including the City, with wind gusts of up to 132kph at Wattamolla (on the coast 40km South of Sydney) and 104km/h at North Head.

  14. [ it is just about raising the GST and reducing the corp tax rate.]

    That seems to be the way the 2015 budget is going. No conversations will be entered into except on those topics but if you want to talk about that they are all enthusiastic and serious.

    If it does turn out that way it shows they learned nothing from 2014 and the Libs are fwarked for 2016.

  15. Good one on twitter

    [Eats an onion. Skols a beer. Can someone please put some bullshit in front of Tony Abbott’s face so he can eat what he is feeding us #auspol]

  16. [“Outrageous answers from JBishop. Basically, anything to finger the ‘Aussie Jihadists’ means sucking up to the murderous Iranian regime. “]

    Blah Blah Blah Anti-Abbott speil.

    Iran has never attacked it’s neighbours

    Iran has never invaded anyone.

    Iran has never launched an attack of Israel or the U.S(one of the few countries in the Middle East not to have done so)

    Iran has a bespoke democracy albeit a dodgy religious based one.

    Frankly I’ve always wondered other than sour grapes on Iran holding U.S embassy officials, not mistreated in any way mind you for many months after the Islamic Revolution why the U.S holds such dislike for them.

    I mean the Americans even shot down one of their passenger planes back in the 1980’s killing everyone onboard and even then Iran did nothing.

    I mean they’ve got nothing on the Chinese when it comes to state sanctioned murder and abuse and Labor were happy to sign us to dealing with them all the way back in ’72 under Gough.

    But of course… that’s different right?

  17. Polled in Brand, WA just now for a firm called “Ask Australia”.

    Questions of what party you’d vote for, which of the two majors you’d preference, whether or not you are likely to consider changing your vote, what party you voted for at the last election, whether you approve or disapprove of the local MP (Gary Gray, ALP) and whether certain statements (all positive statements) apply to that MP.

  18. Steve777@69

    It’s a wet and blustery night in Sydney. Rainfall recorded since 9:00 over 60mm at stations near the coast including the City, with wind gusts of up to 132kph at Wattamolla (on the coast 40km South of Sydney) and 104km/h at North Head.

    Ohhhh… Wattamolla!!! 😮

    When in high school I used to regularly go hiking in Royal National Park with a couple of my classmates.

    I think it was over Easter we set off from Otford intending to hike to Wattamolla in fine weather with good weather forecast.

    As we set up camp for the night there was a little cloud on the horizon out over the sea to the east…

    We woke up in the middle of the night with heavy rain blowing in under the rock shelf under which we had rolled out our sleeping bags. We were ill equipped for bad weather and in the morning after a cold breakfast set off to trudge to Wattamolla arriving there looking like drowned rats.

    The folks running the general store there took pity on us and we dried off somewhat in front of a fire while the old guy, a WW I veteran regaled us with tales of his experiences in France.

    We had been caught in the worst weather for that time of year for many years and totally out of the blue and not forecast.

    Ahhh Wattamolla. 😀

  19. @ TBA, 72

    You left out that time Iran was about five minutes from invading Afghanistan and wiping out the Taliban in the 90s after their embassy in Kandahar was attacked and the staff killed.

    It was only through US diplomatic pressure that they relented.

  20. Victoria @ 71: There are really no new ideas out there.

    The late, great Richard Hughes, in a 1973 column in the Far Eastern Economic Review, told the story of a Victorian Railways employee who, as long ago as 1921, was put on a charge that he did “Cause a piece of cow manure to be coated with icing sugar, decorated with strawberries, and disposed of at a church bazaar, as a goodwill offering from the Victorian Railways, the deception being not discovered until the camouflaged cake had been sliced and served at a tea party”.

  21. Arrnea Stormbringer@77

    @ TBA, 72

    You left out that time Iran was about five minutes from invading Afghanistan and wiping out the Taliban in the 90s after their embassy in Kandahar was attacked and the staff killed.

    It was only through US diplomatic pressure that they relented.

    Another triumph of US diplomacy.

    Worked well didn’t it? 😀

  22. Arrnea Stormbringer@80

    @ bemused, 79

    I’m fairly certain Osama bin Laden was in Afghanistan at the time, too.

    I have no recollection of that at all.
    If they had invaded and succeeded, I wonder how history would have played out? No 911 for a start.

  23. 78
    pedant
    [Posted Monday, April 20, 2015 at 9:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Victoria @ 71: There are really no new ideas out there.]

    too true. 😀

  24. [72
    TrueBlueAussie

    Iran has a bespoke democracy albeit a dodgy religious based one.]

    This is just absurd. It’s a bit like saying Stalin had a custom-made judiciary.

  25. @ briefly, 83

    No, because under the Iranian system, all the positions are directly or indirectly elected by the people, even the Supreme Leader (appointed by the Assembly of Experts, whose members are elected by general vote for eight year terms).

    Yes, there is corruption within the execution of that system, but even Western states can’t claim to be free of that.

    It is at least true that Iran is one of the most democratic nations in the Middle East.

  26. Adrian

    Yes Four Corners is finally lifting the lid on the shame that is our current uni system. Fake students paying real money for fake degrees to get real visas. That is what it is all about.

    It is all true, and widespread – not just in Sydney – the fake entry qualifications, abysmal english standards, refusal of administrators to expel cheating and failed students, potentially corrupt managers taking kickbacks, and students leaving universities with degrees when their standard may be no better than a high school student. Indeed, many are probably not as good as a student in the top quartile of high school graduates. Their english skills would make them unemployable in this country in all but the most menial of jobs. So they clean and drive cabs. Or nurse. Xanthippe has gotten out of academic teaching, and I am glad she did.

    If we are so desperate for export income, we would be better off taking these people’s money and giving them a thorough high school education. At least they would have an employable level of english.

    Who was the worse education minister, Gillard, Evans or Pyne? I don’t know, all have been a disgrace. Gillard being appointed a “Professor” after leaving politics is laughable. I wonder why she didn’t go back to her great legal career?

  27. Socrates

    We might have discussed this previously but how would you improve degree programs, I personally would prefer more assignments but I’m bias against exams.

  28. BTW Xanthippe taught at Adelaide University, so don’t think the behaviours Four Corners are only happening at the “second tier” universities. They are happening in every institute, in every state.

  29. TBA

    I generally agree with you, I’ve never really understood the U.S level of angst towards Iran, I’m aware that they funded several terrorist activities in the 1970s and 1980s

  30. Socrates@85



    Who was the worse education minister, Gillard, Evans or Pyne? I don’t know, all have been a disgrace. Gillard being appointed a “Professor” after leaving politics is laughable. I wonder why she didn’t go back to her great legal career?

    Oh dear… 😮

  31. mexicanbeemer@87

    Socrates

    We might have discussed this previously but how would you improve degree programs, I personally would prefer more assignments but I’m bias against exams.

    I am the exact opposite.

    Assignments are too easily cheated.

  32. MB

    Plagiarism is so rife that there is no alternative to FTF exams now. Students can buy any document on line and submit it as their assignment. A shame, but that is life in the internet age.

    How do you improve the course content? Wrong question. The problem is the stidents, not the course material. You need to screen out the sub-standard students. Many of these students simply should not be there. They are not ready to start a proper uni level course. In an average Australian high school, public or private, they would probably be in the bottom half of the class. They do not have the foundational english and/or maths skills to understand the material. All they do is slow down the rest of the class.

    Also, any naive employment ministers who think that giving unskilled students a piece of paper saying “degree” will improve our workforce skills or shorten a dole queue is seriously deluded. (Perhaps you need that to be a minister?). What Greece did to their economic statistics, we are doing to our universities.

  33. @MB/87

    Not according to some European countries.

    I think it was places like Sweden and Finland that has seen better results with less homework/assignments.

    Infact last year there was talk of Swedish town banning homework.

  34. My experience of international students

    Some are okay but I have seen a few students who sit in class and you can tell that they are not following the tutor.

    In one tut, I sat next to one international student and he was so disengaged that he spend pretty much the whole tut playing a game on his phone.

    On another occasion there was a group presentation with four students, two were pretty good but there were two others, two of them couldn’t speak more than a few words of English, I felt sorry for the other two as I could tell that they had being well prepared.

    One one hand I think its a good thing for Australian Universities being able to attract these students but some of them are a real nightmare to do group assignments with.

    Again I make the point that it would be really good if individual assignments were undertaken with higher level of weighting.

  35. I currently work closely with overseas school students. While some are excellent, the work of others is abysmal. Year 12 assignments are submitted that would get a C if done by a 7 year old, complete with pictures of dolphins or dinosaurs. There is MUCH less effort in them than your average 7 year old and the English is very little better. (actually worse). Structure of a topic is non-existant

    Partly the problem is the very well meaning teachers who baby these kids sheltering them from reality.

  36. Socrates@92

    MB

    Plagiarism is so rife that there is no alternative to FTF exams now. Students can buy any document on line and submit it as their assignment. A shame, but that is life in the internet age.

    Yes indeed.

    I was also pissed off group work in postgraduate courses where some group members just bludged off the rest and got the same mark. Even when reported as we were told to do in course materials, nothing was done.

    So people emerge with degrees that have relied in large part on the work of others. 😡

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