New South Wales election live

Live coverage of counting for the state election in New South Wales.

Sunday

6pm. The Nationals have roared back into contention in Lismore with the counting of 504 postal votes, 56.9% of which have been primary votes for the Nationals. This is 17.5% higher than their polling booth vote, compared with only an 8.2% difference in 2011. The ABC is saying the Greens are on 50.4% two-party preferred, but I’m presuming this is based on a speculative preference flow – if you’re out there Antony, clarification would be much appreciated. The NSWEC has pulled its original preference count and is telling us we won’t get anything back until “the Distribution of Preferences has been completed for all Districts and candidates have been declared elected”, which strongly suggests to me there’s no new indicative count being done. In any case, if the ABC preference flow is correct, it would seem extremely likely that the postal trend will continue decisively in the Nationals favour.

1am. As best as I can tell, the two-party swing has been 9.4%, suggesting a final result of 54.8% for the Coalition and 45.2% for Labor, with preferences breaking about 33% to Labor and 19% to the Coalition, with 48% exhausting. This compares with 24%, 21% and 55% in 2011 – using those numbers would have caused you to overstate the Coalition two-party vote by a bit over 1%. The change in preference behaviour is roughly half that at the Queensland election, when Labor got 48% (up from 27%), the Liberal National Party got 16% (down from 22%) and the exhausted rate was 36% (down from 51%).

Saturday

11.31pm. The NSWEC announces counting has completed for the night. So there doesn’t seem to be much uncertainty left, apart from the narrowness of Labor’s leads in Gosford (0.6%), The Entrance (0.9%) and Strathfield at a pinch (1.3%), and maybe whether Liberal preferences flow heavily enough to the independent in Wollongong to endanger Noreen Hay.

11.16pm. Little further progress, except that the tide keeps ebbing towards Jodi McKay in Strathfield, who should now be okay with a 1.3% projected margin.

10.23pm. Not sure exactly why the Upper Hunter 2PP is entering in one surge, but now we’ve got 30 out of 45 and the Nationals are out of the woods.

10.15pm. Upper Hunter 2PP count now up to 16 booths out of 45, and the Nationals lead has dropped from 2.9% to 1.8%.

10.03pm. Earlier I noted the Nationals lead in Upper Hunter snapped from 0.2% to 2.9% — that turns out to have been because the 2PP booth count went from four out of 45 to 13. These are small booths so you wouldn’t want to be too confident, but it would still be a surprise if Labor won. In any case, the swing is a highly notable 20.3%.

10.01pm. Jodi McKay continues edging very slightly further ahead in Strathfield, her lead now 0.9%.

9.59pm. Antony explains peculiarity of Upper Hunter count, with lots of primaries and few 2PPs, and says on his view the Nationals primary vote is low enough that they’re in trouble. So we will keep that on the watch list.

9.56pm. Noreen Hay up a bit in Wollongong to 41.4%. Independent Arthur Rorris leads Liberal 20.9% to 19.4% — I suppose it’s possible he’ll do less well in late counting, which you often see with independents and minor parties, and that he won’t finish second. If he does, he’ll need a very strong flow of Liberal preferences. Whether he’ll get it is a question we won’t know the answer to this evening.

9.54pm. Another booth in Strathfield shifts ALP lead from 0.7% to 0.8%.

9.51pm. And now the lead’s recorded at 2.9%, so not sure what’s happening here.

9.49pm. Surprise late movement in Upper Hunter — 44.2% counted, 22.7% swing, projected Nationals lead 0.3%. However, there’s a big mismatch here between the number of booths reporting on two-party (four) and primary (37), so I suspect we may have an anomaly here.

9.45pm. 13% counted for upper house, and Land Tax Party’s vote has gone down from 1.8% last I looked to 1.6%. Probably nine seat to Coalition with one each as usual for Christians and Shooters, which would get the Coalition what they wanted, namely one cross-bench micro-party to sway rather than two. Too early to say anything with confidence though.

9.44pm. Another booth, another 0.1% on Labor’s projected lead in The Entrance — now at 0.8%.

9.40pm. Gosford right on the line, flipping between Liberal ahead and Labor ahead on the ABC projection with nearly every update.

9.37pm. ABC now calling East Hills after long have Liberal merely “ahead”, with a fairly substantial lead of 2.2%.

9.33pm. ABC now back to Labor gain in The Entrance, but all it’s down to is a shift in the predicted margin from 0.5% to 0.7%. With 56.6% counted, this needs to stay on the watch list. A long history of very close results in this seat.

9.27pm. Other than that, Gosford and The Entrance very much in doubt. But as far as I can tell, all other results are settling in.

9.25pm. Jodi McKay losing ground in Strathfield: projected lead now only 0.6%, and ABC downgrades her from win to ahead. Noreen Hay now down to 40.5% in Wollongong, to the point where she could conceivably be in trouble. Independent Arthur Rorris’s 21.6% to 19.7% lead over the Liberals is narrow, but almost certainly sufficient.

8.58pm. Berejiklian asks a good question about preference exhaustion, but it wouldn’t appear that anyone’s placed to answer that. My vague sense though is that ReachTEL’s projections were about right.

8.57pm. ABC determining no swing at all in Monaro, with Nationals margin of 2.0%.

8.49pm. Antony says Queanbeyan results indicate Nationals to hold Monaro. Labor concedes Newtown, says Chris Uhlmann.

8.48pm. Labor gains Londonderry, vacated by Bart Bassett, with 15.8% swing off a third counted.

8.47pm. Hadn’t mentioned Tamworth – Peter Draper has fallen a bit flat there, safe Nationals retain.

8.45pm. The Entrance very, very close. Ditto Gosford.

8.44pm. Berejiklian points to 12.2% Christian Democrats vote in Granville, up from 5.3% last time, which has evidently not converted into a strong flow of Liberal preferences.

8.42pm. As Antony Green notes, Alex Greenwich’s 44.0% is well clear of Clover Moore’s career best of 39.8%.

8.41pm. Seat projection now closer to the respondent-allocated than the previous-election preference model.

8.37pm. Greens big show looking very much like the luck of the draw — their primary vote is essentially unchanged on 2011.

8.35pm. Prospect has now tipped over to the point where the ABC computer is providing 2PP projections and not just raw numbers (it took me a while to twig that it was working that way), and despite a slow count it’s calling it for Labor.

8.31pm. No Land Tax’s 1.9% suggests they’re a show for an upper house seat, I would have thought.

8.29pm. Long night ahead in Monaro. The ABC had a slight swing to the Nationals before, but now it’s a slight swing to Labor — 1.1%, with a margin of 2%. Slow count, with the picture unlikely to be clear until we see those big Queanbeyan booths.

8.27pm. Very good result for Liberal member Gareth Ward in Kiama, who has worked very hard from what I can tell, and is credited with a 1.4% swing. Nearby, Noreen Hay’s primary vote of 43% plus should see her right, despite the independent finishing second.

8.23pm. ABC calling for Londonderry, adding to Sydney area gains that include Blue Mountains, Campbelltown, Granville, Rockdale and Strathfield. But they don’t include East Hills, which isn’t looking good for them, or Seven Hills and Oatley, where the Liberals have won — never mind Coogee, Seven Hills, Holsworthy, Mulgoa, Parramatta and Penrith (if you were wondering about Jackie Kelly, she’s on 8.3%).

8.19pm. Labor now ahead in Gosford, which if sustained would add to Central Coast/Hunter gains in Maitland, Port Stephens, Swansea and Wyong, to which you could add Newcastle and Charlestown if using the 2011 election as your base.

8.18pm. The ABC computer has demoted Labor to “ahead” in The Entrance.

8.16pm. Antony not entirely convinced by his Strathfield numbers, but it would be very odd for the ABC to be wrong about a 3.7% lead with over 30% counted.

8.15pm. ABC projections filling out. Big Labor-versus-Coalition question marks are East Hills, Gosford, Monaro. Slow count in Liverpool and Prospect. Independent now second in Wollongong, which might be dangerous for Noreen Hay, but you’d think her 44.4% primary vote would be enough.

8.14pm. Despite hopeful talk from Berejiklian, the ABC is putting Labor 3.7% ahead and calling it.

8.11pm. Evenly allocated the ABC’s five undecided seats, result looks somewhere between the 2011 preferences and respondent-allocated preferences projections on my poll tracker — the primary votes of which are basically correct, with Labor 0.9% too low on the primary, the Greens 0.5% too high, the Coalition 0.3% too high.

8.05pm. Looks like a good night for the Greens, who might win as many as four lower house seats. ABC computer confident Labor will win Ballina if they get ahead of the Greens, but that’s not looking likely — Greens 30.0%, Labor 25.7%. The Greens are also well ahead of Labor in Lismore, so I’m guessing that’s looking a close-run thing between Nationals and Greens. ABC computer calling Newtown and Balmain for them.

8.05pm. ABC calling Oatley for Liberal.

7.57pm. I’m now getting that correction I anticipated in Strathfield. Now it’s projected that McKay is 1.7% ahead, although it’s not calling it yet.

7.55pm. Antony crediting Labor’s strong recovery in Hunter and Illawarra to electricity privatisation, and recalling something similar happening in 1991.

7.51pm. Overall, the election is playing very much according to script. Nationals in trouble in Ballina and Lismore, as forecast. Strong performance by Labor in Hunter and Central Coast. But Labor is falling short in Sydney, although an uneven picture with some stronger performances for Labor (Campbelltown, Blue Mountains) and some weaker (East Hills, Oatley).

7.50pm. Berejiklian calling Oatley and getting “positive messages” about East Hills, which would both be demoralising losses for Labor given their 3.8% and 0.2% margins.

7.49pm. But Greens well ahead of Labor for second place in Lismore, and surely looking good to win on Labor preferences.

7.48pm. Ballina on a three-way knife edge. Nothing between Labor and Greens for second place, nothing between Labor and Nationals if it’s Labor who gets ahead. Presumably Greens will win if they finish ahead of Labor.

7.47pm. Central Coast and Hunter going according to script for Labor. Very good result by the looks in Port Stephens; Maitland, Wyong, The Entrance, Swansea look like gains.

7.45pm. Monaro will clearly be close, but hard to pick given its diversity. You’d rather be the Nationals at this stage.

7.40pm. Very early numbers good for Labor in Macquarie Fields, and they’re well ahead in Campbelltown, looking good in Londonderry. Granville being called for Labor. But “Liberal ahead” in East Hills. Strikingly good result for Liberal in Strathfield — too striking I think, will want to see more numbers there. Still too early to say much about Seven Hills. Nothing doing for Labor in Sydney in seats beyond 8% – Holsworthy, Mulgoa and Parramatta looking safe for the Liberals.

7.38pm. Antony’s projected primary vote totals broadly in line with the polls, with the Coalition maybe a big higher than my poll aggregate. I’m not able to get a clear sense though of what preferences are doing in aggregate.

7.33pm. Labor “ahead” in Port Stephens, which is good news for them. ABC calls 49 seats for Coalition, 30 for Labor, one for the Greens (that’s Newtown I guess, but that’s off very early numbers) and two independents, meaning Greg Piper and (I guess) Alex Greenwich.

7.33pm. Seven Hills looking close. Sensing western Sydney slightly better for Labor than some commentary was indicating.

7.29pm. Liberals looking okay in Kiama. Only 3.4% counted in Wollongong, but the mooted independent is third on 18.6%. He’ll first need to overtake the Liberals on 21.4%, then get strong preferences to overtake Hay, who is on 38.4%.

7.29pm. ABC has Coogee called for the Liberals, so I ran down the garden path a little on that one earlier.

7.28pm. Campbelltown looking strong for Labor, despite talk they would struggle

7.26pm. ABC calls Maitland for Labor. Independent Philip Penfold doing well on 22.6%, but still running third. Elsewhere on the Central Coast, The Entrance remains called for Labor, and they’re ahead in Wyong on 4.5%. Liberals ahead in Gosford.

7.24pm. Blue Mountains looking good for Labor.

7.23pm. Greens looking strong on 3.7% counted in Newtown; close on Balmain in 1.4%. Early days yet in both.

7.22pm. Greg Piper returned in Lake Macquarie.

7.20pm. Still only 5.4% counted, but Ballina looking either Labor or Greens, barring a late Nationals recovery. No worries for the Nationals in Clarence though, and likely to get home in Tweed.

7.19pm. Remarkably strong early results for the Liberals in Oatley, with 4.8% counted.

7.18pm. Antony’s display has Nats “ahead” rather than confirmed in Lismore.

7.17pm. Greens matching it with Labor on 2.7% counted in Heffron, but no idea what booth it is — Greens vote is strong here at the northern, city end of the seat.

7.15pm. ABC computer calling Goulburn for the Liberals.

7.14pm. The ABC computer is calling Lismore for the Nationals, but the question is whether a Nationals-versus-Greens result might tell a different story.

7.13pm. Antony talking up the Liberals in a few seats where I’m not seeing numbers yet. Berejiklian says they’re “looking like a chance” in The Entrance, but I’m not sure if she’s actually looked at the figures.

7.12pm. ABC computer calls The Entrance for Labor from 16.3% counted.

7.12pm. First numbers from Tweed have 18.0% swing to Labor with Nationals 3.6% ahead; 4.9% counted.

7.11pm. And Antony cautious says ABC computer “indicative” of Coalition victory.

7.10pm. Antony brings up bad early number for Labor in Monaro, but cautions the seat will be decided in Queanbeyan rather than these rural areas, where things could be very different.

7.09pm. Lineball between Labor and Greens for second place in Lismore, but with Labor looking to be falling short if it’s them.

7.05pm. Not sure what’s going on in Coogee. Antony is obviously seeing something different from me, because I just heard him refer to encouraging numbers for Liberal member Bruce Notley-Smith. And the ABC numbers I was just citing have essentially disappeared – now they’ve got a 2PP with only 141 votes counted.

7.03pm. Encouraging numbers for Labor in Coogee — 6.7% counted, 9.4% swing, Labor 1.1% ahead.

7.02pm. Richo on Sky appears to suggest he’s thinking the Greens will win Lismore.

7.01pm. Antony brings up a Goulburn two-party result that bears out what I just said — big swing, but not big enough.

6.59pm. Very strong looking results for the Greens in Ballina, even taking the booths into account, but unfortunately here too the notional count is Nationals-versus-Labor.

6.56pm. It’s actually looking like Pru Goward is down about 20% on the primary vote with Labor up 4%. That’s still not enough to account for her 26.8% margin.

6.52pm. The most advanced count is in the who-cares electorate of Cootamundra.

6.49pm. Early figures for Goulburn look superficially good for Pru Goward, giving her 53.2% of the primary vote, but there’s nothing in from Goulburn proper.

6.46pm. Greens on 29.9% and Nationals on 40.8% in Lismore, suggesting preferences from the 23.8% Labor vote will be decisive, which is no surprise. Antony appears to be doing an estimated Nationals-versus-Greens throw, but the NSWEC count is Nationals-versus-Labor.

6.40pm. Most a case of primary vote counts in safe Nationals areas at this stage. Still not seeing any two-party counts so I can get a bead on preferences.

6.37pm. Lismore is geared for a Nationals-versus-Greens count, which is good. With 1% counted, there’s a projected Nationals margin of 2.4%, but it’s too early at this point. Meaninglessly early figures for Golburn and Rockdale, both lineball at this very early stage.

6.28pm. A few tiny booths in from around the place. One is Fairy Hill Hall in Lismore, but it only amounts to 62 votes, which seems a bit odd because there were 420 here last time.

6pm. Polls have closed, and we should get the first and smallest booths in in about half an hour or so. There are two exit polls doing the rounds, ReachTEL with 54-46 to the Coalition, Galaxy with 55-45 from primary of 46% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 11% for the Greens – so very well in line with the poll tracker, in other words.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

649 comments on “New South Wales election live”

  1. I just realised that the NSW electoral commission web site is calculating upper house seats quota percentage using the total votes to calculate quotas. ABC web site is using valid votes (excluding blank etc). ABC is correct and electoral commission is wrong.

  2. Thanks Nathan @529.

    The Upper House count on the Electoral Commission site has now caught up with the ABC one, but it showed a much lower primary vote count for quite a while.

    I find it odd that the Electoral Commission has a count for “Blank Votes” and a separate count for “Other Votes, including Informal”). Blank ballot papers are informal so having a separate count/pile doesn’t mae much sense, & nor does pooling informals with anything others.

    But in any case, it seems clear that the L/NP will win at least 9 seats and be able to get privatisation through, albeit with a few sweeteners for Fred Nile (who also seems to have got back again, even though his party’s vote has dropped again even with the absence of a Family First candidate).

  3. Zoomster 537. If 44% of people say Fed Libs influenced decision and 39% said not – that is not cancelling out. It is 44% saying that Fed Libs influenced vote.

  4. Isn’t there a Queensland thread you can go throw your toys out of the pram into, TBA?

    I’d say this is no better than a par result for Labor, and more probably a reasonably poor one. A new Premier after the last one resigned in a corruption scandal; a traditionally deeply unpopular main campaign issue in privatisation; and a deeply, deeply unpopular national brand for the governing party. 10% is probably on the low side of the swing you’d expect in those circumstances, especially given how far the electorate swung to the Coalition last time.

    A good grassroots campaign and a confident, articulate leader can only get you so far.

  5. I would think the result is quite good for Labor. One of the possibilities after the last election was that Labor would not recover. See 1997 national election.

    A different party would come forward which took a lot of previous and existing Labor support. That hasn’t happened and Labor is now in a position to possibly win the next election.

    The Leg Council vote confirms the lack of other parties challenging Labor apart from Greens.

    Labor still has to deal adequately with the stench of the Obeid etc years. With the history of the Labor Right in NSW you have to hope the Federal Executive could intervene. No one else seems capable of fixing it.

  6. As for mandates on power privatisation. Why should a big result in the election 4 years ago on different issues give the LNP the numbers to get a policy in this time. Clearly a majority of voters in Leg Council at this election took a different view.

  7. I loved the way both the NSW ALP & GRN leadership poured cold water on the ‘mandate for privatisation’ notion.

    That merely gives you a mandate to present it to the upper house.

    In the NSW case, as the GRN spokesy noted, the upper house is the ‘people’s house’: its proportional and only relies on actual voter prefs, unlike the dodgy federal one: distorted by state franchises and a ‘unelected hack preference’ system.

    Its therefore much more representative than the lower house, where a dead heat between right and left of 45% primary each led to an easy win for one side.

  8. Re the influence of the Federal Liberals on the state vote:

    44% said they were infuenced, 39% said they weren’t, with 17% apparently didn’t know, those being either not influenced, influenced subliminally, or so rusted on to one or other side as to be beyond influencing.

    “Cancelling” any influence would be if, of the 44% who said they were influenced, about 22% were more inclined to vote for the Government as a result, while about 22% said they were less.

    Then there’s the question of whether such ‘influence’ was strong enoung to change votes, which would be a much smaller proportion. My feel is that the Abbott factor may have been a one or two percent point negative for team Baird, perhaps enough to offset media bias.

  9. In 2007 Informal got 71% of the Green vote in the upper house
    In 2011 Informal got 78% of the Green vote in the upper house
    Currently Informal is 92% of the Green vote but probably finish at 87% of Green vote.

    Perhaps informal will be the 3rd most popular choice at the next election.

  10. Overall, great night for the GRNs, broke new ground in taking 2 regional seats from Nats. At least one of which the ALP could probably never win.

    Average to middling night for the ALP: winning 14 seats with 10% swing is nothing to sneeze at under at any time.

    But with privatisation on offer, it probably should have done better.

    Then again, people were unfairly primed by the magnificent QLD comeback: 2015 NSW is much more like the normal post-landslide ‘modest recovery’ election.

  11. And yes, the Obeid factor.

    It has to be said, its not a bad result in that context. Somewhat aided by the LNPs own travails with IBAC.

  12. If informal does pass the Greens in the upper house then the Greens could rightly claim “No one gets more votes than the Greens”

  13. Glenn Druery on Upper House result

    [
    Glenn Druery ‏@GlennDruery 9m9 minutes ago
    The 10th Lib & No Land Tax Party will likely battle for the last LC seat. Current count winners – 9 Lib/Nats, 7 ALP, 2 Greens, 1 CDP, 1 SFP.]

  14. Thanks shellbell

    There will be ramifications from this result the Libs truly played dirty.

    Brooks had large computer generated signs on buses and deliberately had a truck parked at the polling gate opposite my place which he was told to remove and which ended up in my street.

    He was giving bottles of water to the local shops with his brand on them to hand our and then we had the article in yesterday’s SMH reporting that stickers were being posted on Cameron’s signs accusing him of being a pedophile love.

    This will all end up in court is my guess and I hope Cameron carries through.

    Lived here for forty five years and never seen anything like it.

  15. MTBW

    pretty low act IMHO. Chris Murphy has posted this on twitter.

    [chris murphy ‏@chrismurphys 28m28 minutes ago
    @fran_b__ @wespro65 hearingLNP campaign manager see with stickers
    ]

  16. spocket

    We all know that but first time I have seen those stickers thank you and who also put out other unauthorised letters about a mosque being built in the area.

  17. Wakefield

    [Zoomster 537. If 44% of people say Fed Libs influenced decision and 39% said not – that is not cancelling out. It is 44% saying that Fed Libs influenced vote]

    Exactly what I was saying. I was pointing to the silliness of those in the media dismissing the figures.

  18. 552

    Blanks are being counted separately because they can easily be seen to be blank. Most other informals require more complicated observation to be seen because they have numbers.

  19. I don’t think the Greens need to become right wing as such to broaden their base, just become less anti wealth creation.

    The Greens are pro-wealth creation. It’s just that their concept of wealth excludes rent-seeking, like pocketing massive capital gains from something so unproductive as buying and selling existing housing. The Greens’ concept of wealth has a proper emphasis on assets which add value to society – knowledge, public transport infrastructure, clean energy infrastructure, high quality manufactured goods, education. Also the Greens stand for a much fairer division of national income between wages and profits. Over the last forty years the profits share has been rising because of deliberate policy decisions on tax, industrial relations, and financial regulation. The wealth that we currently have disproportionately favours a small elite, and that is economically inefficient and wrong. Our tax system needs to tax rent-seeking very heavily and make the distribution of wealth less unequal.

  20. 522

    This result is the vindication of the NSW Greens using the campaigning tactics perfected by the Victorian Greens in Melbourne 2013 and Melbourne and Prahran in 2014. The NSW Greens probably have won 4 seats because their regional support is better concentrated and in a region the ALP had been under performing in and they had a strong issue to run on.

    I remember that you were critical, before the final result came out, of the Victorian Greens decision to target Prahran. That looks to have been a good decision.

  21. Has any one commented on the very very high level of exhausted votes, in seats such as the Entrance.

    There are about 4500 minor party votes including greens but just a fraction have gone to EITHER major.

    This is really amazing. Have not checked elsewhere but Labor needs to go a-wooing

  22. they want the ALP to move more to the Left, but if the Greens do actually succeed in driving Plibersek or Albanese (or their Left leaning successors) from Sydney/Grayndler, and the ALP don’t feel like they can win them in the future … the ALP necessarily drifts further right.

    Tanya Plibersek is hardly left-wing. Her progressive credentials are deciding shabby after she led the charge to send our troops on yet another pointless mission in Iraq. She championed a right-wing policy of concentrating yet more power in the hands of our unaccountable national security agencies. If she is what counts as progressive in Labor circles then heaven help the ALP, because things are going to get worse for Labor before they can get better. Labor cannot be a slightly less right-wing neoliberal party than the Liberals and expect to prosper as public disillusionment with that economic framework grows. People want things that cannot be delivered unless neoliberalism is abandoned – particularly the economic illiterate surplus fetishism and ridiculous focus on a currency-issuer’s debt in its own currency (debts which can always be serviced with no negative impact on taxpayers). Labor puts itself in the unnecessary fiscal straitjacket of a right-wing ideology and wonders why it flounders in government. The ideology itself is deeply flawed and Labor should educate the public about those flaws. Sadly Labor politicians genuinely share the public’s ignorance of government finances.

  23. @579 daretotread, what are you basing that on? I don’t see a particularly high level of exhaustion in The Entrance or anywhere else; indeed, if anything it seems lower than last time.

  24. Zoomster touches on an interesting point regarding rural voters, if we look back over history there have been cases where Liberal candidates have been elected.

    Forgetting modern politics for a moment, historically Liberals sat more to the left, when the ALP was formed, many Liberals became ALP aligned, whilst those who were anti-union, just floated around and depending where you look, they have either become the moderate wing of the Liberal Party, the Nationals or the Greens.

  25. of 4500 votes Labor got 800 and the libs 200. seems very low to me or is there something wrong with the tallys on the ABC.

    In the last Qld election the greens exhaustion rate was just 20% or so. Not sure about other minors.

  26. Frick

    Actually it may be a tallying issue. Looking at East Hills there is obviously an error in calculating TPP, so maybe it is just a part of the tallying process by EC.

  27. Love this from last night from Sam Dastyari:

    [Elections nights are always emotional and live television coverage can proffer some delightful dummy spits and brain snaps.

    Labor senator Sam Dastyari last night slammed former resources minister Martin Ferguson for supporting electricity privisation.

    You “don’t get a bigger rat”, Mr Dastyari said of Mr Ferguson, and called for him to be expelled from the Labor Party.]

    I agree with Dastyari!

  28. Nicholas

    Sadly i have to agree with you about Tanya P. I recognise she is highly competent, but here left wing credentials are very dubious. There are five broad areas on which people may be assigned as left/right. To be of the left in the ALP I think you need a score of 6 or more.

    On foreign policy/security issues she is to the right, with both Carr and Rudd well to her left on most issues. Score 0 or if generous 0.5. Albo as far as i know would get a 1.5 (eg meta data)

    On social issues I think she is progressive, so she may score to the left on these issues. score 2. So would Albo

    On human rights eg refugees, indigenous etc I see her as in the middle, not as outspoken as someone like Melissa Parke or Albo. I will be generous and give her 1. Albo 1.5

    On green issues I believe she is quite strong so give her 2.

    On economic issues, which while critically important I have really no idea. Albo we know stands for infrastructure so he gets a 1. To be fair I give Tanya P a 1 too but not sure it is justified.

    So score out of 10 Tanya 6.5 but I am being generous. Albo gets an 8.

  29. Edwina

    I would not approve of anyone dissing the party that gave them a career in politics once they leave politics.

    Not classy!

  30. Senior Labor figures favouring privatisation of power should have shut up during the election campaign. Now that the votes are in, I have no problem with them arguing that Labor should wave it through the upper house, if that is their view (even though it’s not mine). In particular, Marin Fergusen should be expelled.

  31. Sky’s coverage was big on rats, first there was Jackie 8% Kelly and then there is Martin Ferguson.

    Both do fit the definition of rat, not because they disagreed with the parties policy position but because they openly campaigned against it thus openly supporting the other side.

    This is why I take issue with people who call Richo a rat, as all he does is gives it too both sides but when it comes to the crunch and the thing which matters he hasn’t ran an election campaign against the ALP.

  32. And Iemma, although he has probably suffered enough for his opinions. In any case far better to keep Robbo and expel Iemma.
    Whatever we do we must ensure the sparlies keep their jobs featherbedded.

  33. Someone still inside the party might explain to me why it is absolutely essential to keep electricity in government ownership but it has always been acceptable to have gas in private but regulated hands

  34. OC

    It is very sad isn’t it they should all just shut their mouths and keep their thoughts to themselves but some of them have huge egos.

  35. Regarding Tanya and Albo, I think some people have a very narrow view of what constitutes left/right wing.

    Traditionally left = liberal/progressive
    Traditionally right = conservatives

    Under the historical definition as I understand it, both Tanya and Albo are to the left.

    To underscore this, we would view the industrial left as being left, yet many of the views held by people in the industrial left would be described by many people in the non industrial left as right wing views.

    We saw this with Julia Gillard, very much a member of the industrial leftie.

  36. Dtt

    ALP’s idea of wooing is exemplified on this blog by a few choice folk who go apoplectic whenever the Greens are mentioned. If the party chooses to stay rooted in the 90’s that’s simply sad.

  37. I am suspicious of privatisation because of the way it often increases costs and reduces service levels. It privatises profits and socialises losses. Private owners cherry-pick potentially profitable areas and leave unprofitable / difficult areas (typically those serving the least advantaged) on the taxpayer. It creates rent-seekers. Even if highly regulated, I see no point and a lot of risk in privatising monopolies. The experience of highly privatised economies, e.g. the USA, or the experience of privatisation in the Thatcher years in the UK, does not inspire confidence.

  38. I think a lot of people basically resent seeing infrastructure that the public paid for flogged off – usually to mates of the party in power. Especially the profitable bits. They’re not so interested in the loss-making bits.

    That mates thing just seems plain corrupt.

    And the sale thing just seems a bit too much like theft dressed up as public policy.

    then you have shysters like Newman ignoring the income from these utilities when making calculations on debt. QLDers didnt buy it – who would?

    Then you have the now 20+ years popular experience of it NOT leading to more efficient and cheaper services.

    Whats so hard to understand about all that?

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