NSW late polling: Newspoll 55-45, ReachTEL 54-46, Morgan 57.5-42.5 to Coalition

Newspoll, ReachTEL and Morgan close their NSW election campaign accounts with polls showing a substantial victory for the Coalition.

Final polls in the reverse order of their publication:

• Thanks to James J in comments, I can report that Newspoll’s final result for The Australian has come in at 55-45 – but that there’s encouragement for Labor in a further result on respondent-allocated preferences, something we haven’t seen from Newspoll since 2004, which has the lead at only 52-48. The previous Newspoll at the start of the campaign had a Coalition lead of 54-46 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 44%, Labor is down two to 34%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Personal ratings tell a somewhat better story for Labor than we’ve seen in other places, with Mike Baird down two on approval to 57% and up three on disapproval to 29%, while Luke Foley is respectively up two to 38% and six to 37%. Baird’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed slightly, from 55-25 to 54-27.

We also get a Sydney/non-Sydney breakdown which is in line with other pollsters in recording a big disparity between the swings. With my own calculations of swings in brackets (no doubt we’ll see Newspoll’s own soon enough), the results for Sydney are Coalition 48% (-2%), Labor 34% (+6%) and Greens 11% (+1.5%), while elsewhere it’s Coalition 38% (-12.5%), Labor 35% (+10.5%) and Greens 11% (+3.5%). The swing to the Greens is interesting, given talk of the gains they stand to make on the north coast, perhaps to the extent of snaring the seat of Lismore. The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday from a sample of 1596.

• The final ReachTEL poll of the New South Wales campaign for the Seven Network is a bit at the low end of the Coalition’s recent form, crediting them with a lead of 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 53-47 in their last poll three weeks ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 45.5%, with Labor down 1% to 33.8% and the Greens up 0.3% to 10.5%. I don’t normally dwell on ReachTEL’s personal ratings because I don’t care for their five-point scale, but there’s a big ouch there for Luke Foley, whose disapproval rating (meaning very poor plus poor) has spiked 11.4% to 35.2%, with approval down 0.4% to 23.2%. Mike Baird is up 7.0% on approval to 48.8% and 4.4% on disapproval to 23.3%. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 1549. Full results, including their very helpful state breakdowns, here.

• We have also had the last Morgan SMS poll of the campaign, and it’s a forceful participant in the end-of-campaign Coalition surge, having their lead out from 56-44 earlier in the week to 57.5-42.5. Primary votes are 49% for the Coalition (up 3.5%), 29% Labor (down 3.5%) and 12.5% Greens (up 0.5%). The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 1086.

UPDATE (28/3/2015)

There is now a guide to the Legislative Council. I have also updated the poll tracker on the sidebar, which has made essentially no difference to the primary vote and previous election preferences, but Labor has clawed back 0.6% and one seat on respondent-allocated preferences. Preferences are very much the thing at this election – I’ll be surprised if the poll tracker is more than a point out on the primary vote, but we’ve now got two pollsters, Newspoll and Ipsos, with respondent-allocated results that suggest Labor will yield as much of a dividend from changed preference flows as they did in Queensland. However, my own respondent-allocated measure is based entirely on the more moderate results from ReachTEL, simply because ReachTEL was the only pollster that provided detailed breakdowns of preference flows. Last night’s ReachTEL poll means I’ve now got two of their polls to work with instead of one, and a better preference flow for Labor in the more recent result is behind the limited shift in the latest update. If you’d prefer to take Newspoll’s word for it you can factor in a bonus 1% to Labor on the respondent-allocated result, but that would only deliver them a further seat or two.

• Andrew Clennell in the Daily Telegraph:

The Greens are set to snatch a shock win in the seat of Lismore based on anti-coal seam gas sentiment, internal party polling from both major parties shows. A win to Greens candidate Adam Guise against veteran Nationals MP Thomas George comes with a loss in Ballina also likely for the Nationals, this time to Labor. The Nationals could lose as many as four seats statewide, with Tamworth MP Kevin Anderson under threat to independent Peter Draper and Monaro, held by small business minister John Barilaro, said to be lineball yesterday … Seats expected to fall from the Coalition to Labor, other than Ballina, were Swansea, Prospect, Londonderry, Granville, Wyong, Maitland, Blue Mountains, Rockdale and Strathfield … Both major parties expect Liberal MP Mark Coure to hang on in Oatley, despite just a 3.8 per cent margin. Labor also hopes to win Monaro and The Entrance and is expected to win Balmain and Newtown from the Greens.

Mark Coultan of The Australian likewise says Labor is “expected to win Ballina” and has “high hopes in neighbouring Lismore, although Labor is in a battle with the Greens to finish ahead on primary votes”. However, the Liberals are “hopeful of retaining Oatley”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald‘s seats-to-watch list rates Wollongong as “one of the few seats Labor could lose, due to the South Coast Labor Council’s Arthur Rorris running as an independent, backed by the Wollongong mayor” – a prospect I’ve not previously seen discussed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

148 comments on “NSW late polling: Newspoll 55-45, ReachTEL 54-46, Morgan 57.5-42.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Meanwhile… here in Queensland, Anna 2.0 calls in the cops over some dodgy going-on’s by a Labor MP.

    I mean Christ they have been in power for what? 2 Days?!

    New election now

  2. TrueBlueAussie@51

    Meanwhile… here in Queensland, Anna 2.0 calls in the cops over some dodgy going-on’s by a Labor MP.

    I mean Christ they have been in power for what? 2 Days?!

    New election now

    Nothing better then a squealing tory to go with a cup of coffee.

    Keep the squealing coming truthie…

  3. Thanks Bill Shortn. You’ve just sealed the fate of the ALP. I reckon there’ll be a shift to the coalition because of your cowardly acquiescence on the meta-data bill.

  4. I especially loved this bit:

    “In a letter to Police Commissioner Ian Stewart, Ms Palaszczuk said she had immediately forwarded the woman’s allegations to Labor state secretary Evan Moorhead on March 18 and he had encouraged her to make a complaint to police.

    “Since that time, details of the allegations have been made public,’’ she said.

    “In light of this fact, I feel it is now incumbent on me to refer the matters to the Queensland Police Service for its consideration and investigation of the allegations as appropriate.”

    So hang on… if the details of the dodgy goings on WEREN’T made public she WOULDN’T have referred it to the cops?

    I mean FFS… 2 Days in and we have the chook covering arses for dodgy Labor MP’s already.

    Must be the stench of NSW Labor corruption seeping up north

  5. William, I think Darren Chester would be a bit shocked to find out that he is the Liberal state member for Wyong and not, as one might have thought, the National federal member for Gippsland in Victoria. The member for Wyong would in fact be Darren Webber.

  6. The Legislative Council guide is missing a word I presume to be “groups” after the number 81 in its description of the 1999 tablecloth ballot paper in the middle of the second paragraph.

  7. *rolls eyes at TBA*

    A member having not disclosed to the party a history of (perpetrating) domestic violence makes for a political nightmare for Qld Labor, but “dodgy goings-on” or “corruption” it definitely is not.

  8. Rebecca he didn’t do his tax returns for multiple years so he could avoid paying child support. That is pretty dodgy. ATO might be interested.

    As to the ALLEGED DV issue… well that’s an unknown for now but hopefully the truth is put into the open for all to see rather than another Craig Thomsonesque arse covering exercise.

  9. Just voted. However, this being a blue ribbon Liberal seat, my neighbours will have outvoted me again. Fortunately, my upper house vote does make a difference of one in about 4.5 million. I voted to block electricity privatisation plus any nasties the Liberals haven’t told us about.

    P.S: it took about 30 minutes to get to the head of the queue, and the queue when I left was about twice as long as when I arrived. Should ID laws ever be introduced, more Election Commision staff will be required to keep things moving at an acceptable pace.

  10. Re TBA: well, in the case of the member for the Qld seat of Cook, the police investigation will take its course should the police decide one is required, as will any investigation by the ATO if warranted, then we shall see if a by-election is needed. If so, the people of Cook will make their choice. Whoever they choose will be the right result – that’s democracy.

    In the meantime, there should be no crap about ‘tainted votes’ or the like. In any case I wouldn’t get too excited. Labor holds the seat by a margin of 7%.

    P.S. what is it about electorates named ‘Cook’?

  11. [“In the meantime, there should be no crap about ‘tainted votes’ or the like. In any case I wouldn’t get too excited. Labor holds the seat by a margin of 7%.”]

    Won after a 10% swing against the LNP member, you should try and keep up.

    7% is nothing in QLD. It’s even less nothing in a QLD By-election.

  12. William

    I know this is an important day for you for other reasons but you might like to know that there is a three pager on Knox in Fin today.

  13. Tough choice today.. I really like Steve Whan the local member but still cant stand NSW Labor.

    So I vote for Steve Whan while holding my nose to the NSW Labor stench, praying that Labor wont win government and gave the libs my upper house vote.

  14. MTBW@69


    Is this sort of behavior allowed under the Electoral Commission.


    The posters are unauthorised and therefore illegal. If they are shown to be linked to the winner’s campaign (assuming the Liberals win) then that will be grounds for overturning the result. But if as is more likely no link is shown or the real culprits are fringe hysterics then there might not be any redress.

  15. Kevin

    Thank you for the reply.

    I have never seen such tactics as this.

    Last week we had an unauthorised document delivered to our letter boxes complaining about a Muslim Mosque being erected in the area which hasn’t yet got Council approval.

    Some one on here this week that the candidate is a millionaire bought about be his owning a sign writing business.

    This is entirely over the top but some people will do anything.

  16. Thank you for reflecting all the polls but some of them are dodgy at best.
    The one that best reflects what I see is the one that says 52/48 LNP with a margin of error 0f 3%. that reflects to me the only legitimate one of the lot of them.
    I know that you cannot assess the credibility of each of them and again I thank you for your efforts . it has been fantastic. Ken.

  17. Interesting mtbw it’s obvious east hills is in play, given Baird is at pad stow according to smh. Still do these type of campaigns work? I reckon people are smart enough to see through the stuff reported in the smh.

  18. I predict that the fist polling booth to rapport will be the Lord Howe Island booth. This is a fairly safe prediction.

  19. @84 – I think below 35 would be considered a disappointment. I’m personally predicting 38 – with 33 being the worst I can see and 41 being the absolute best.

  20. SMH has compared the campaign against Murphy with that against Jodi McKay in Newcastle last election.
    It should be remembered that the campaign against McKay was organised by Joe and Erik who were on an earner from the boganaire.
    I am assuming Murphy is on the left so is this an inside job from the right.
    A. It would get rid of someone who looks articulate and competent – the last thing the right wants in the parliamentary left
    B. There were good odds to be taken on the Libs retaining their most marginal seat
    Its a question that must be asked.

  21. As we discussed when Robbo was rolled there is not much talent in caucus.
    Thi is a natural result from running a Nomenklatura system of governance. Those in charge ensure that their underlings are less competent than they are and therefore no challenge. After several generations of leadership those who are left are generally the dregs.

  22. Let’s hope that it’s 52-48, as Newspoll’s respondent-allocated preferences suggest, and that the undecideds break strongly Labor’s way. Then, with a bit of luck and selective donkey voting, we may yet have an interesting night.

    No excuse for Queensland Labor’s failure to vet its candidates.

  23. 91

    I am not seeing anything that potentially belongs to Prahran.

    Lismore (apart from the surprise factor, it being held by the Nationals rather than the Liberals, its rock solid conservative history, it having been predicted by polling and the Greens looking like coming second on primaries) is like Prahran in potential Green win after having been in 3rd place last time.

  24. shellbell

    Not so! Perhaps twenty years ago but not now.

    I have been here from 1969 and this area has changed.

    Lots of 600m square blocks now being sold as Veterans have died and duplexes going up everywhere bringing in $1 million each.

  25. Well I hope the campaigh against Murphy is investigated and appropriate charges laid. Its things like this that destroy our democracy

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