James J in comments relates that tomorrow’s Weekend Australian carries a New South Wales state Newspoll showing the Coalition leading 54-46, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. Mike Baird has personal ratings of 59% satisfied and 26% dissatisfied, while Luke Foley’s are 36% and 31%. Baird leads as preferred premier by 55-25. The poll was conducted from Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1119, in keeping with Newspoll’s regular practice of conducting polls at the start and end of state election campaigns.
Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll conducted from Friday to Sunday, and while the sample was a very modest 418, the results were remarkably similar to Newspoll’s: 43% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 10.5% for the Greens. However, Morgan has come up with a rather different headline two-party figure of 52.5-47.5. As I noted in relation to further similar results from Galaxy last week, a lot depends on the veracity of the pollsters’ assumption that preferences will behave as they did in 2011, notwithstanding that things played out very differently in Queensland.
UPDATE (ReachTEL): A ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network is slightly stronger for the Coalition than Newspoll on the primary vote, crediting them with a lead of 44.6% to 35.0%, with the Greens on 10.0%. However, ReachTEL calculates a narrower two-party preferred lead of 53-47. Further questions confirm that Mike Baird is rated a good deal more highly than Luke Foley, but that the Coalition is heavily weighed down by hostility towards the Abbott government. The poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 1496.