Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW

Two new polls strengthen the view that Mike Baird’s government will enjoy a fairly comfortable victory next month – provided assumptions about preferences prove correct.

James J in comments relates that tomorrow’s Weekend Australian carries a New South Wales state Newspoll showing the Coalition leading 54-46, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. Mike Baird has personal ratings of 59% satisfied and 26% dissatisfied, while Luke Foley’s are 36% and 31%. Baird leads as preferred premier by 55-25. The poll was conducted from Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1119, in keeping with Newspoll’s regular practice of conducting polls at the start and end of state election campaigns.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll conducted from Friday to Sunday, and while the sample was a very modest 418, the results were remarkably similar to Newspoll’s: 43% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 10.5% for the Greens. However, Morgan has come up with a rather different headline two-party figure of 52.5-47.5. As I noted in relation to further similar results from Galaxy last week, a lot depends on the veracity of the pollsters’ assumption that preferences will behave as they did in 2011, notwithstanding that things played out very differently in Queensland.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): A ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network is slightly stronger for the Coalition than Newspoll on the primary vote, crediting them with a lead of 44.6% to 35.0%, with the Greens on 10.0%. However, ReachTEL calculates a narrower two-party preferred lead of 53-47. Further questions confirm that Mike Baird is rated a good deal more highly than Luke Foley, but that the Coalition is heavily weighed down by hostility towards the Abbott government. The poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 1496.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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