Essential Research once again fails to show much sign of the post-Australia Day collapse in Coalition support evident from other pollsters, with two-party preferred still at 54-46 (only one point weaker for the Coalition than before Australia Day) and primary votes unchanged on last week at 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, excepting a one point drop for Palmer United to 2%. But once again, there is still plenty of bad news for Tony Abbott in the subsequent attitudinal questions, with only 28% saying Tony Abbott should be kept as Liberal leader until the election under all circumstances versus 22% who went for an option allowing him six months to improve, and 39% believing he should go right now. Among Coalition voters, the results are 48%, 34% and 14%. Support for the party room’s decision to reject the spill motion is evenly divided at 40-40, becoming 71-18 among Coalition supporters. The poll reports 49% of respondents expecting Labor to win the next election versus just 23% for the Coalition, and 61% considering it unlikely Tony Abbott will still be leader at the time versus on 20% for likely.
On top of that, a semi-regular suite of questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues actually finds movement in the Coalition’s favour on economic management, education, climate change and treatment of asylum seekers since the question was last asked at June, albeit that the poll was conducted at the lowest ebb of post-budget backlash. Other results are effectively unchanged, the Coalition retaining strong leads on security and the war on terrorism (up three to 19%), economic management, controlling interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers, but marked down heavily on protection of the environment, and Labor strongly favoured on health, education and industrial relations (UPDATE: I should observe that a flaw in Essential Research’s “difference” column is that it shows Liberal minus Labor, when respondents are in fact given a third choice for the Greens. Presumably Labor would have generally better “difference” ratings otherwise). The poll also finds 44% opposed to the government’s data retention policy with 40% in support, and 37% holding a strong view that submarines should be built in Australia, 34% believing it should only be so if the cost is similar to alternative options, and 12% requiring that the cost be lower.
meher baba
[Because, as I have said, Turnbull would seem to be a poor judge of character: that’s perhaps his tragic flaw which, as Aristotle would have put it, will bring a sense of catharsis to us as we watch the rest of his career play out).]
Turnbull’s a fkn arsehole. He’s not so much a flawed character as a dickhead, with an axe to grind.
Get over your bromance.
meher baba@45
This from my post above –
[ Instead he concocted a dud yarn about an old ute ]
Now you’re trying to verbal me.
Rudd had declared the loan of the ute on the parliamentry register – it was kosher.
The tories including turnbull tried to link that ute loan to corruption by a PM.
There were NO linkages of misconducted associated the the loan of the ute.
The allegation of corruption ‘to help a mate’ was false, there was NO proof and turnbull turned his back on all his legal training when he ran with the unproven allegations.
It goes to character and very poor judgement by turnbull.
And Turnbull likes to get the sympathy vote because his mother left him – she left his father, but let’s not quibble.
Fascinating article re the effect on the CPI by the deregulation of fees.
With the concessions Pyne has flagged, it looks like this essential piece of legislation will cost both students and tax payers in general more.
Win, win.
I wonder how the Poodle will respond?
kezza2,
As always, you cut through the hi falutin flimflammery of subtle debating points and get to the real point.
More strength to your arm, comrade!
Kezza2
Concur with GG!! 😀
Steve777@43
That is a brilliant initiative. Whoever thought that up deserves a raise in pay.
Barney In Saigon
Is there anything that this govt does, that is well thought out?
kezza2: I have no bromance with Malcolm. I don’t go for posh private school types: if I was ever going to turn, it would have to be for a bit of rough.
vic,
What do you mean? The Abbott Government is a highly sophisticated well oiled machine.
This is as good as it gets.
[As always, you cut through the hi falutin flimflammery of subtle debating points and get to the real point.
More strength to your arm, comrade!]
Yeah, no actually. I’m going to tighten things up a little around here concerning gratuitous abuse of public figures.
[@PatsKarvelas: On @RNDrive in an hour I’m joined by Arthur Sinodinos & @edhusicMP for political panel, & @BenPhillipsUC from NATSEM. #auspol]
Good to see Turnbull’s numbers man Artie the Bagman out doing media the day after Malcolm’s tour de force appearance on Q&A.
Beware the Ides of March.
Oops! Just saw your ‘tightening up’ comment.
Of course I meant the esteemed Senator Sinodinis the numerate one.
Utegate was no conspiracy, or if it was there seems to have been only one conspirator – Mr Grech.
I didn’t post on PB back in 2009. My thoughts at the time were that it was hard to see how smart guys like Rudd and Swan could be so stupid. And yet, there seemed to be strong evidence. Turnbull wasn’t stupid either. But then Rudd and Swan were absolutely firm in their denials – no waffling, evasions or apparent dussembling as I remember. I thought it might have been a beat up but back then the Murdochracy was not yet campaigning full on for regime change.
I enjoyed the denoument and Turnbull’s discomfiture. Apart from Grech, it wasn’t a conspiracy, it was a huge stuffup.
William,
That horse bolted long ago!
GG
Dog help us if this is as good as it gets!
vic,
Who you gonna believe?
Tony Abbott or your own “friggin” eyes?
GG
😀
I think enforcing a ban on calling politicians and journalists “arsehole” and “dickhead” is pretty doable actually, and my paymasters would rightly expect no less of me, if ever they had occasion to give the matter any thought.
#62 is fine, Sprocket.
Steve777@64
No – there were allegations that were but forward under privilege.
No matter how *strong* or otherwise.
Indeed the *allegations* stunk to high heaven.
He who accuses must proven.
That is when the whole charade fell apart – taking turnbull with it. He knew the job was dangerous when he
took itseized it.William,
Being doable is not in question. Whether you can sustain it is?
I wish you well on your sanitary endeavours, though.
Even the AMA are spruiking John Oliver’s segment on the tobacco industry
[John Oliver gives Australia’s plain packaging laws a global audience! youtube.com/watch?v=6UsHHO… #auspol #health @iamjohnoliver #JeffWeCan]
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6UsHHOCH4q8https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6UsHHOCH4q8
Grech probably thought Turnbull was a gullible fool. He had form after all:
“THE Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, is giving a $10 million boost to research promoted by a rainmaking company part-owned by Rupert Murdoch’s nephew Matt Handbury, despite scientific experts hired by the Government stating the firm had provided “no convincing data” to support the technology”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/turnbulls-10m-for-rainmakers-with-no-proof/2007/10/23/1192941065568.html?page=fullpage
sprocket 62
Beware the Ides of March.
You may be onto something there. First full partyroom meeting March 3rd, after one Newspoll. Second full partyroom meeting March 17th, after another Newspoll.
Ides of March (15th) fall on Sunday when everyone comes back to Canberra after a week off.
Maybe Malcolm could strike a special commemorative coin, like Brutus did.
alia
[Turnbull was doing nothing short of taunting Abbott]
Saw a clip showing the Ruddock bit and taunting is an excellent description of what it looked like.
Must have missed the news of Peter Ryan’s resignation from Victorian parliament. Anyhow, Gippsland South by-election on March 14.
My recollection is that Utegate only started with the Ute, which was declared and therefore kosher.
The real core of Utegate was the allegation that favours were being arranged between Rudd, Swan and a group of Queensland “mates” to get them preferential deals on government underwritten insurance, necessary because of the GFC.
Glenn Milne (remember him?) even wrote a column alleging that “Ipswich Inc.” – a cabal of Queensland real estate agents, car dealers and other spiv-type businessmen – has unfettered access to Rudd’s office and were in fact dictating national policy to him. In short: Ipswich Onc was running the country, because it controlled Rudd.
THAT is how stupid it got.
Having recollected all that, I also recollect that something seemed fishy with the way that Grech was allowed to smarm his way out of the affair by bunging on a “mental health” excuse. Also there was a hint of some physical illness, as well. The onset of all these illnesses was pretty sudden, beginning not long after Grech was caught.
The ease with which Grech escaped any sanction at all (besides being heavied out of his job) always had a “WTF?”aspect to it, and made me suspect there WAS a kernel of truth in what Turnbull was alleging.
Email records would have to be checked if it ever got serious. When they were checked the record would be found wanting. So why did Grech use emails? I always thought it might have been to get Turnbull’s attention only, but that Grech had no intention of actually producing them as evidence. Then things got out of control. Grech, when fessing up to the emails DID appear pretty genuinely shaken up about it at Senate Estimates.
All in all, letting Grech get off seemed to me to be an indication that something was not quite right on the Labor side, and that perhaps there was more substance to the Grech/Turnbull story than met the eye.
victoria
That was an excellent piece by Oliver. Straya came out looking pretty good. Those effing tobacco companies really are a malignant mob.
Steve777 – re Malcolm – you can’t cheat an honest man
William – he quit just after the Queensland election when all the attention was on Queensland and Canberra.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/time-for-fresh-talent-former-nationals-leader-peter-ryan-bows-out-of-victorian-politics-20150202-1341af.html
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/leader-peter-ryan-departs-at-watershed-moment-for-nationals-20150214-13dt00.html
[William Bowe
Posted Tuesday, February 17, 2015 at 5:23 pm | PERMALINK
I think enforcing a ban on calling politicians and journalists “arsehole” and “dickhead” is pretty doable actually, and my paymasters would rightly expect no less of me, if ever they had occasion to give the matter any thought.]
Anything to help.
Because ar$eh@le and d*ck/head/f@(ker are so, so, so reasonable – and nobody’d ever know the difference, would they?
Gawd!
Turnbull & Grech!
Turnbull is the guy who organised a meeting to hand over documents in a dark alley out of fear for his life.
Turnbull has been involved as a legal eagle in some high profile cases. Cases that put the twists and turns of Agatha Christie’s novels to shame.
One may consider that maybe, just maybe he believed because he desperately wanted an easy way to destroy Rudd.
However, there was the little matter of secret arrangements to meet Grech in Lucy’s office, apparently for coaching purposes.
There are so many holes in that utegate saga that have remained unresolved.
Oops! Just saw your ‘tightening up’ comment.
Right. Back on the other thread in relation to a hypothetical Labor version of scholarshipgate, I meant the lovely Julie Bishop, the learned George Brandis and the astute Christopher Pyne.
BB
[Having recollected all that, I also recollect that something seemed fishy with the way that Grech was allowed to smarm his way out of the affair by bunging on a “mental health” excuse. Also there was a hint of some physical illness, as well. The onset of all these illnesses was pretty sudden, beginning not long after Grech was caught.]
Yeah, but you forgot the recollection that Nick Minchin was behind it all.
How Turnbull also escaped the rainmaking scandal is a bit of a mystery. When it comes to his past efforts many in media seem to have selective memory loss. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-20/turnbull-pumps-10m-into-rainmaking-gamble/731004
I love conspiracies.
They are fuelled by gut feeling, obscure gossip from someones brother’s girlfriends step father who knows the cleaning lady and a never ending human talent to insist that one and one equals whatever you want it to.
Of course, if the facts are clear cut and unquestionable, the only thing you can do is blur ithe image and start questioning.
The truth is out there somewhere. But, it’s well disguised and never likely to make it’s present location or circumstances known to the real worrld because truth is a left wing conspiracy in its own right.
I’m looking forward to the day that we find out that Godwin Grech drove the 9/11 terrorists to the Diego Garcia base where the Malysian airline is stored in Kevin Rudd’s ute. You know it makes sense.
Kezza, if you’re suggesting that my injunction won’t apply to garbled spellings of said words, you are, as usual, mistaken.
71% of Liberal voters think no spill was best option, Liberal MP’s are more partisan than Liberal voters. (thats how we got here)
This is enough for Abbott to hold on 6 months. He has sacrificed Ruddock at his alter, and is ready to sacrifice Peta and Joe if needed, that will keep the backbenchers in line.
In a couple of months, the NSW election and federal budget will be behind them and nobody will want to give Abbott an easy way out, he will have to lead them to an unwinnable election and retire shortly afterward.
BB
Can you imagine, after mental illness was put front and centre of politics, the PM going after Grech who was painted as being of a very sickly constitution and suffering a severe mental illness.
Is old kero head still acceptable?
jeffemu @ 91
[Is old kero head still acceptable?]
Why shouldn’t it be? It’s terribly polite.
Dee@90
I recall a comment from the time by Bludger, ‘ShinyBum’ a Canberra PS who said about gretch, “He wasn’t sick before he got caught”.
Lance
I thought Murdoch’s nephew never received the $10 million, re: rainmaker, due to the change of government.
ANYWAY, LEAVING ALL THAT (The Malcom Turnbull WINNER, Tony Abbott LOSER) aside, the best thing that happend this week is this:
ANDREW BOLT got the biggest kick in the nads
Why is this so? Let me paint the ways.
A day of firsts for women in politics, and one in particular
And that would be Leeanne Enoch being elected as the first female indigenous representative to the Qld parliament.
Before I tell you what happened, let’s revisit Andrew Bolt’s comments (for which he was convicted for racial vilification):
[Exactly how Aboriginal is Enoch? By what superior right can she welcome me to ‘her’ country? Why is she insisting on a racial difference the eye cannot even detect? Doesn’t her ancestry make her more an oppressor than a victim?]
That’s Andrew Bolt, the little boy who often refers to his Dutch heritage (though who could tell because of his skin colour?) finding it hard to “fit in” in Australia, even though he was born here.
Suck it up, Andrew. Get over the fact that an Indigenous Woman who you tried to put down has actually been elected to parliament and is now a Minister.
Something you’d never achieve in a lifetime.
[William Bowe
Posted Tuesday, February 17, 2015 at 6:11 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza, if you’re suggesting that my injunction won’t apply to garbled spellings of said words, you are, as usual, mistaken.]
Rightio.
There is probably a bit on Malcolm and his rainmaking mate to come out. Labor probably won’t go near it. There’s likely to be a few in the Liberal Party, however, that know more about Turnbull’s time as Water Minister and aren’t afraid to use it against him, if need be.
Here’s a link to Leeanne Enoch’s election:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-day-of-firsts-for-women-in-politics-and-one-in-particular-20150216-13foeh.html
What about when we’re quoting accepted (cough) luminaries like Bob Ellis, who called Mr Howard a “ghastly little f*wit” in an essay reproduced in “So it Goes” (I think it was that brilliant tome, anyway).
Actually I’m just being a dick. As long as people can continue to refer to The Poodle, Talcum, Ol’ Kero Head – and even the unimaginative squibs from the right, such as “KRudd” and “The Gillardine” – it’s fine. Anything to lift the tone of the blog. 😉
zoomster
Talk about good timing! I have been invited to be part of a kick-off meeting of four or five LandCare groups who have put in a joint application for a Green Army project. They have been successful – it has a value of $190000 which is predominately labour costs for a supervisor (who can be locally recruited, and nine 17 to 24 year olds. These young ones will be paid a training wage of $10 to $16 per hour. There will apparently be some Cert I and Cert II raining modules created around the projects. There is minimal allocation of money for materials.
There is an apparently broad requirement for the projects to be of an “environmental nature”.
Details regarding the rules of engagement and mutual obligations are very sketchy at the moment so we will have a lot of questions to ask.
This company
https://www.manpower.com.au/job-seekers/greenarmy.aspx
is a labour hire company who has been contracted by Greg Hunt’s outfit to provide the labour.
It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.