BludgerTrack: 56.1-43.9 to Labor

This week’s poll aggregate records the government in an ongoing downward spiral in the days before Monday’s spill motion.

The flurry of pre-spill polling leaves BludgerTrack engorged with new data, offering a high-resolution picture of how things looked immediately before Monday’s Liberal party room meeting. The result isn’t quite matching Julia Gillard at her worst, but it comes awfully close – particularly on the seat projection, since the swing has bitten deepest in the especially sensitive state of Queensland. There has been a straight one-point shift from the Coalition to Labor on the primary vote to add to the two-point shift recorded last week, with other parties remaining stable. Labor is up four on the seat projection since last week, courtesy of gains in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

The leadership ratings are if anything even more remarkable, with new numbers added this week from Newspoll and Essential Research. The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see. It moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister, since it had only one data point to react to last time rather than two, last fortnight’s Galaxy poll having provided on the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. Bill Shorten’s rating softens a little, thanks to a somewhat off-trend result this week from Essential. Full results, as always, are on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,925 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.1-43.9 to Labor”

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  1. [2840
    guytaur]

    It’s obvious to me that neither the Greeks nor the EU want to agree. That’s a good thing when an agreement would mean persisting with an arrangement that is clearly in no-one’s interests and which can no longer actually be practically applied.

    It’s highly likely that we are now observing the prelude to Greek withdrawal from the Euro and then perhaps to a re-casting of the Euro system more broadly.

    Would this be a shock? Yes. But then, so what? The question is whether the participants can adapt to the shock. Of course they can. This being the case, the sooner they do it the smaller will be the shock and the quicker they will all recover.

  3. Meher

    [Let’s invent a fantasy scenario ..]

    Too late, it’s already been done.
    By Mal and company.
    That was exactly what was going on – invented fantasy – treated seriously by the inventors.

  4. No paywall
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-was-urged-to-make-chief-whip-changes-by-warren-entsch/story-fn59niix-1227222538714
    [Tony Abbott was urged to make chief whip changes by Warren Entsch
    The Australian February 17, 2015 12:09PM
    Gina Rushton Journalist Sydney
    Jared Owens Reporter Canberra

    PHILIP Ruddock was sacked as whip at the behest of disgruntled Liberal backbencher Warren Entsch, who believed the esteemed former minister wasn’t providing the “pastoral care” that MPs needed.

    Mr Entsch’s comments came as Malcolm Turnbull showed little support for Tony Abbott’s “very sad” decision to remove Mr Ruddock in a “captain’s call” following the thwarted leadership spill last week.

    Mr Entsch, speaking to News Corp Australia, said he told the Prime Minister last week that “the whip’s office wasn’t working and there needed to be changes”.

    “Philip is a great guy and has lots to offer the party but when he was whip the pastoral care that is required of that office just wasn’t there,” said the far north Queensland MP, who served as chief whip in opposition.]

  6. Re Utegate: the matter, had it been true, was clearly corruption. But it would seem that Malcolm Turnbull should have done more checking before going for the knockout punch, Abbott style. Should Bill Shorten find himself in similar circumstances, I would hope that he would be more careful.

    To Malcolm, it must have looked to good to be true, which should raise strong suspicion that it isn’t. After all, Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan are pretty smart. Would they risk their careers and their legacy for such small beer? This was after all like the Shire President of Oonagalahbee helping out a mate in return for a 15 year old ute worth maybe several thousand dollars. It should have rung alarm bells.

  8. [The matters revealed by Four Corners on the ABC last night are disgraceful and disgusting]

    Yep, that was pretty bad. Just shows how there are some really hideous people out there without any shred of humanity.

    BTW I wonder who they voted for?

  9. I see the the OO’s headline today was about Welfare for the Rich (though the story below was totally confused). Clearly, the Australian is now paving the way for the govt to chip away (a little bit) at welfare for the affluent (to give the appearance it’s next budget is fairer). Really, the Oz should put its newsroom in the PM’s office.

  10. briefly

    Not at all. Greece willing has a very different meaning to Greece not willing Greece stubborn etc.

    There is bias in those articles. Same story same facts

  11. [enjaybee

    Does any one know what happened there?

    Served his purpose but too obviously.

    So jettisoned, I’d guess.]

    He always seemed to the purveyor of dirt for Rupert’s rags. I find it strange he is no longer with Newscorp.

  12. Scott Morrison has ruled out asset tests on the family home and Shorten has stated that Labor dont support it either. Shorten mentioned pensioners who live in modest homes that have since increased in value. Do we expect them to sell their home so that they are able to do the weekly shopping

  14. fredex: “Let’s invent a fantasy scenario ..

    Too late, it’s already been done.
    By Mal and company.
    That was exactly what was going on – invented fantasy – treated seriously by the inventors.”

    The fantasy was concocted by Grech. But what Malcolm and co were presented with by Grech was a prima facie case of corruption involving the PM.

    In no way was Malcolm responsible for inventing this fantasy. It was presented to him by an ostensibly credible source: a very senior public service whistleblower who had been responsible for managing the program.

    As Steve777 notes, the fact that it was too good to be true – along with its unlikely nature and the oddball character of Grech – should have rung alarm bells.

    It’s absolutely fine for you and most others on PB to be resolutely biased against the Libs. But, like Godwin Grech, you don’t need to start making things up.

  15. outside left

    He took that school from a wreck to where he is now.

    Lakemba is the seat formerly in the charge of Morris Iemma and a friend of mine just sent an email that Morris once got 74% of the two party preferred vote.

    Bet you that this man will get a really high vote in a largely Muslim community.

  17. Meher

    And if I recall correctly Grech had a record of helping out the Tories since the Howard era so Turnbull et al probably had no reason to doubt him despite his so called oddball character.

  18. Unemployed and broke, Thomson must be wondering whether it was worth fighting.

    [Former federal MP Craig Thomson may have to represent himself in his civil trial against the Fair Work Commission as he cannot afford a lawyer, the Federal Court is told.]

  25. MTBW

    and a very centralist and down-to-earth person.

    They f’cked up badly there and then sent KK on an impossible mission.

    Another waste.

  26. Burgey @ 2841

    [Abbott would be mad to go for DD or anything other than a by-election in a seat as safe as Mitchell right now.]

    I don’t see the problem……………

  28. This is getting boring meher.
    So after this I’m opting out.

    Here is [a pretty lousy] transcript of the Cassidy Gillard interview I mentioned.
    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/media/pressrel/7AXT6/upload_binary/7axt60.pdf;fileType%3Dapplication%2Fpdf

    I can’t cut and paste so you will have to read it to see how Gillard cut to the chase and didn’t play the media game of presuming that just cos Mal says something it must be true and Kev and Wayne have gotta be liars.
    There was no ‘prima facie’ case cos there was no case at all.

    It would all have been over in a day or 2 and Mal might have kept on as LOTO – IF [you like that word] he had put up some evidence.
    But he didn’t have any.
    He didn’t check, he just smeared.
    He later said he had not seen the e-mail/had seen the e-mail/sorta more or less seen the e-mail.

    Have a read – even Cassidy had to concede, maybe you should do the same.

  29. Boerwar@2842

    dave

    It seems to me that Tsipras and Vamoufakis repeatedly verbal euro officials, and repeatedly state multiple greek ‘positions’ some of which are mutually incompatible.

    The germans (and others) must be thinking that this shower have no integrity, and that they will only stick to any agreement they might make if they feel like it on the day.

    BW

    Tsipras and Vamoufakis held out a magic pudding which they and most greeks knew could not be delivered.

    All involved look to be just about out of rope.

    Maybe that expression should be “Beware when bearing gifts to Greeks” ?

  30. I think the number of genuine oldies in million dollar houses would be relatively low and relatively easy to deal with. You could easily defer the impact against the house value as a temporary measure. People more than 5 years off retirement would be told what the rules are and have to plan knowing that.

  31. [Let’s invent a fantasy scenario in which, tomorrow, a senior public servant clandestinely approaches Bill Shorten tomorrow and tells him of an email that shows that someone in a senior minister’s office had intervened in a government grants process on behalf of a friend of that minister: a friend who, say, made his beach house regularly available to that minister and his family. And the senior public servant invites Shorten to arrange for senators to ask him questions about this issue at Senate Estimates. Never mind about the Prime Minister, let’s just imagine that it’s any Cabinet minister.]

    Or better yet let’s think about what happens when a Prime Minister is being actively lobbied by members of an industry, lets for the sake of the argument say it is the private higher education industry. And lets say the government of that Prime Minister soon after being elected proposes changes to funding of higher education that were not foreshadowed before the election but which dramatically advantage the private higher education industry.

    Now what would an opposition leader do if it was discovered that a close relative of that Prime Minister, lets say just hypothetically a daughter, had been awarded a scholarship by a private higher education institution with close links to the Prime Minister’s party, and this scholarship was worth a very significant amount (let’s say about $60k) but the institution doesn’t actually do scholarships, and there was no real assessment (or indeed application process), nor was the scholarship advertised.

    I think we know that Shorten would be much more cautious than Turnbull had been on Utegate. And a good thing too. I just hope that he sets up a Federal ICAC so that such fantasy scenarios can be properly investigated.

  32. Utegate

    Another factor that maybe Turnbull wouldn’t have been aware of is that the rumored beneficiary of Rudd’s largesse is probably the last person someone like Rudd would have risked intervening on behalf of, so the story was improbable from the start.

    I agree with Meher that it was an allegation that Turnbull couldn’t ignore – he had to follow it up – but the due diligence process was seriously deficient.

    That I think is the legitimate criticism of Turnbull in regard to the affair

  33. WWP

    [ People more than 5 years off retirement would be told what the rules are and have to plan knowing that.]

    People who own expensive real estate and don’t have their superannuation organised don’t get much sympathy from me.

  35. George Roberts @George_Roberts
    BREAKING: plan to move Chan and Sukumaran from Bali tomorrow morning has been postponed on the request of the Indonesian Attourney General.

    Why am I starting to get the feeling that the Indonesians are playing this so as to get the maximum amount of abject grovelling out of the Australian Government (and people)?

    Stopping the boats may have come at a huge cost to our self-respect.

  36. Ratsak @2881:

    Brillian. Indeed, we have seen what Shorten would do, and why it means he has nous and Turnbull doesn’t. Shorten didn’t go off half-cocked, for one. He didn’t embarrass himself before learning all the facts, and he didn’t make it a three-ring circus.

    Shorten is out of Turnbull’s league (the more I see of him, the closer to (1) I decide to put the ALP) and it shows. My only worry is that the media may decide to actively run interference for Turnbull, the way they did for Abbott before the election.

  37. meher baba@2864


    The fantasy was concocted by Grech. But what Malcolm and co were presented with by Grech was a prima facie case of corruption involving the PM.

    In no way was Malcolm responsible for inventing this fantasy.

    turnbull went in boots and all and was wRONg.

    It showed him having very poor judgement.

    He has to take responsibility for *HIS* own actions in utegate – and it shows him in a very poor light.

    In fact he should have resigned as LOTO over it and not waited to be given the boot.

    As for ‘learning from his mistakes’ – easy to make that claim – hard to substantiate it.

  39. ajm

    [Stopping the boats may have come at a huge cost to our self-respect.]

    The orange life boats were something gauranteed to p$ss the Indonesians off.

  41. Matt @ 2886

    [ My only worry is that the media may decide to actively run interference for Turnbull, the way they did for Abbott before the election.]

    Doesn’t work any more. Witness South Australia, Victoria and Queensland.

  43. Executions delayed at the request of the attorney general.

    “@George_Roberts: BREAKING: plan to move Chan and Sukumaran from Bali tomorrow morning has been postponed on the request of the Indonesian Attourney General.”

    Executions only happen on the island the transfer was for.

  45. Dave

    Using Meher’s logic, if I phone the police and tell them that you are a bserious addie, they’ll come straight away knocking on your door and off you go.

    No investigation needed, because a serious allegation existed.

  46. guytaur

    Thanks for that I heard some comments on the radio this morning hinting about something like this.

    Maybe the backlash they are receiving will change things particularly if Australia started to threaten the aid they are given.

    The response on ground by all sorts of people is shaming them.

  48. The orange life boats were something gauranteed to p$ss the Indonesians off

    Waiting for the orange lifeboats to make an appearance…possibly in the shape of coffins

  49. (From the Bongiorno article in BKs links this morning)

    [The Murdoch Sunday tabloids reported Mr Abbott and Ms Credlin rejected concerns from ministers Kevin Andrews and Eric Abetz that a six-month waiting period for school leavers to get unemployment benefits was “too harsh”.]

    Crikey, if Eric Abetz is saying you’re being too harsh then maybe a moment of quiet reflection is called for.

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