Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

A somewhat surprising status quo result from Essential Research this week, but plenty of bad news for Tony Abbott in the numbers for all that.

True to form, Essential Research bucks the trend in recording little change this week, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens steady on 9%, Palmer United up one to 3%, and two-party preferred unchanged at 54-46. Reflecting other polling, Tony Abbott is now running third as preferred Liberal leader on 11%, behind Malcolm Turnbull on 24% and Julie Bishop on 21%. A semi-regular question on leader attributes is particularly interesting at this point in time, with Tony Abbott up eight points since early December on “erratic” and down nine on “capable”, together with smaller adverse movements on other measures. However, Bill Shorten’s ratings are slightly worse than last time, which I’m inclined to put down to this week’s survey being a somewhat bad sample for Labor, hence their surprising failure to record any improvement on voting intention despite a strong result last week.

Further questions find a 34-34 draw on the question of whether Australia should become a republic, compared with 31-31 when the question was last raised in October; 26% in support of the reintroduction of knights and dames with 46% opposed; and 14% supportive of the Prince Philip knighthood with 69% opposed. Strikingly, a question on the minimum wage finds it to be deemed too low by 61% and too high by only 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,096 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 22
1 2 3 4 … 22

  2. It needs to be said also that this script on this page sucks through bandwidth. I had my ipad tethered through my phone, and it sucked through about 500 megs in 45 minutes. I use it on my desktop with adblock now.

  3. “@vanOnselenP: Tonight on #PVOnewshour our panel will examine the news of the day, and we’ll go live to Queensland to hear what Mal Brough has to say…”

  4. kezza2 @100
    [I thought, wowsers, for the first time in my life I’M the PRE-EMINENT personage on here.
    ]
    just so long as you don’t start knighting dukes

  5. Erwin lived so that Manfred could live.

    Hitler have Erwin the option of killing himself and saving his family OR Hitler topping the lot.

    Erwin killed himself and Manfred lived. He went on to have a post war political career.

  7. There seems to be two stories doing the rounds:

    (1) that Bishop will not challenge
    (2) that Bishop would not take the job because she does not feel she is up to it.

    IMHO, she is largely a dud Foreign Minister and would most likely be a dud prime minister. I am kind of hoping that both stories are true.

    As for hoping that Abbott hangs on for Labor’s sake:

    (1) Labor should be voted in on a suite of policies, not on the basis of some lunatic clinging onto power like grim death.
    (2) The sooner our polity starts the post rotten apple recovery and healing process, the better.

  8. Why would I want to listen to LIAR MAL BROUGH?

    Take a walk, PVO.

    And while I’m on the Dutch, why didn’t Bolt declare a conflict of interest regarding dickhead’s knighting of Phil?

    If he was honest, he would tell us he was brought up to HATE the Brits.

    Never met a Dutch-born constituent yet who would pay fealty to the English crown.

  10. [“@vanOnselenP: Tonight on #PVOnewshour our panel will examine the news of the day, and we’ll go live to Queensland to hear what Mal Brough has to say…”]

    If the rumour mill is correct, that ellipsis is supposed to lend extra significance.

  11. “@MiaFreedman: ‘Yes I made promises but things different after election that we couldn’t control’. Abbott destroyed Gillard for saying the same thing. #npc”

    Thanks for posting this tweet (and others) Guytaur. The logic of Abbott’s argument may be one he is not so comfortable with (assuming he has the capacity to understand it).

    Having admitted that he made promises (to the voters) that he has not been able to keep (after the election) makes plain the voters have not got what they voted for. Since Abbott claims it was the voters, not his Parliamentary colleagues, that gave him the PM gong, it would follow logically that he should give us another vote now he has breached his promises. Things like his self-claimed “signature” promise, no less.

    Alternatively his Parliamentary colleagues are entitled to replace him for being hopelessly compromised. Surely even Abbott cannot think that a candidate for PM can say anything before an election and then do whatever he likes afterwards and still claim a mandate from “the people”.

    The second comment to be made about Abbott’s preposterous claim that a PM voted in should not be removed involuntarily except at an election is that this arrogance must go down well with Liberal MPs. It is the very same “command and control” attitude that has seen him make his ridiculous “Captain’s pick’ (now a pejorative descriptor) which has caused so much damage to the Liberal Party. Good to see Abbott spurns Howard’s much more modest (if equally conflicted) claim to tenure as PM. If being a “Liberal” stands for anything it must surely be to revolt against Abbott’s undemocratic, demagogic construct.

    The Essential poll as to who would make the best leader of the Liberal Party giving Abbott of 11% is extraordinary. I can imagine that some of those 11% would be ALP supporters who are enjoying the Liberal Party woes and fear a more capable leader. In any event 11% must mean support for Abbott in the Liberal Party has evaporated.

  13. [“@bevanshields85: Peter Hartcher says majority of partyroom now against Abbott, all needed is a trigger for a challenge/spill #auspol” ]

    Brough is rumoured to be the trigger. That’s the scuttlebutt PVO was alluding to.

  17. [Peter Hartcher says majority of partyroom now against Abbott, all needed is a trigger for a challenge/spill]

    Haven’t they been running with this stuff for days now? First there’s a majority – then it’s only 20. Then he’s been given assurances of another few months. It’s all just a load of garbage really.

  18. TBA

    [Interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition Government]

    This time round it’s an emergency measure, coz the economy is tanking – thanks to to the government. Did you not get that little detail?

  21. [“Peter Hartcher says majority of partyroom now against Abbott, all needed is a trigger for a challenge/spill”]

    The Sydney Leftist Herald has been running this leadershit speculation for months.

    Fairfax demands a new leader… they think they run the joint, and people complain about Murdoch bias?

    Why there may indeed be a shift in leader why pull the eject cord more than 18 months before an election? You want the honeymoon effect of a new leader a couple of months before the election not a year and a half away.

  22. Windhover

    Totally agree.

    Abbott’s just covering his arse with his bullshit about being elected by the people.

    He knows, and everyone with a brain knows, that it’s the party room who decides the leader, not the people.

    When Gillard was PM, Abbott appealed to the ignorant, of which Australia fields the vast majority, who think they have a say in who leads the country.

    He’s still trying to appeal to the ignorant. I think he’ll be voted out before too long.

  23. [Of course interest rates on average should be lower but if interest rates come down today it is because the economy is struggling, not because it’s doing well,” – Joe Hockey, 2013]

    So stick that in your pipe and smoke it TBA

  25. RaaRaa

    [If he goes ahead and do regardless of what his party team think, it’s not hard to make that link that what the electorate thinks is not his immediate concern.]

    Think about it. What incentive does he have to stand aside, or give a proverbial about what others think? If the party is determined to roll him, then no serious concession he could make would prevent it, so he might as well carry on regardless, milking the position for all it’s worth. Every day his bank account and his ego are both flattered. What happens to his party is none of his concern. Hung for a sheep as hung for a lamb might be the thinking.

    Indeed, if his party really is smashed at the next election, he may even derive some grim pleasure from seeing so many of those in his party who have never liked him denied a chance to spit on him from a great height, or to enjoy what he enjoyed.

  26. [You want the honeymoon effect of a new leader a couple of months before the election not a year and a half away.]

    Suffer in your jocks. Your change of leader is just weeks away.

  27. [“Suffer in your jocks. Your change of leader is just weeks away.”]

    Have you got that date you were going to give me on when Abbott will be gone yet?

  28. 111

    When Abbott said that about a PM being removed by the voters, I think it could be him justifying any move he makes to call an election if a move is made on him. It would not surprise me if that is what he did.

  30. TBA, alternatively if Abbott tanks the Governments popularity much further waiting much longer to change leaders may not give sufficient time for things to be resurrected. Do you think Abbott will turn things around?

  31. Tom
    It is not in Abbott’s hands to call an election if he is dumped. The GG will ask the parliament if a government can be formed and the answer from Julie/Malcolm/Scott would be “Yes”. End of story.

  32. 121

    The Liberals want Abbott to stop destroying the Liberal brand. They also want him not to hurt them too much at the New South Wales election in late March.

  36. [“TBA, alternatively if Abbott tanks the Governments popularity much further waiting much longer to change leaders may not give sufficient time for things to be resurrected. “]

    But then the Sydney Leftist Herald will be onto it’s next leadershit speculation gig.

    I mean really and truly… how many Prime Ministers is Fairfax wanting in 6 Years?

    They want this leadershit spill because it helps sell them newspapers… they’ve been going on about it for months.

  40. [ Interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition Government ]

    “Interest in LeaderSh$t will always be higher under a Coalition Govt” is probably more apropos of the times, ToBeAdvised. 🙂

  45. [ Spill within the fortnight according to Riley ]

    I hope he’s right. Tactical disaster for the Libs as it means they are most likely to burn their next leadership on the altar of the whole “unfair” bugdet theme.

  48. [ I can’t quite put my finger on why, but TBA’s latest contributions are sounding weirdly familiar. ]

    Ah….i reckon he’s Shows having a lend of us and laying off the caps lock. 🙂

  49. [30-40 isn’t a majority.]

    It’s more than enough to spill the leadership. The anonymity of the ballot will ensure Abbott is history. Who’d have thought after Labor’s leadership troubles the Libs would be in the same place less than two years later.

Comments Page 3 of 22
1 2 3 4 … 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *