BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 54
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  1. Re BK @1984: and they didn’t get anything like $550 when the Carbon Price was removed. In fact, these increases neatly offset the drop in power prices (which themselves didn’t last long).

  3. [And isn’t it a treat to now watch the obsequious and effete David Flint talking on the subject!]

    David Flint is one person I would like to see have his trousers drenched by a passing car on the street.

  4. From memory the WA govt funded the shortfall so pensioners and retirees could keep their concessions, but I might be wrong about that.

  7. Meanwhile, Keane has a go at Abbott as well:

    […While Tony Abbott was preparing to bestow a knighthood reserved for “pre-eminent Australians” to a wealthy Greek bigot living in the UK, another type of anointing was taking place in New York. As revealed in the Financial Review, on the weekend Rupert “all Muslims not guilty” Murdoch received Julie Bishop, Foreign Minister of his far-flung vassal state, Australia, and senior member of the client government he helped install there.

    The timing of the meeting, and its revelation by Fairfax, is exquisite — and entirely unsubtle: just when Abbott demonstrated his leadership is permanently hostage to a political mindset that deeply confuses even his strongest supporters, there’s Bishop getting the News Corp imprimatur on the same day as Fairfax slavishly devoted an article to her thoughts on why Australia should retain a military presence in Afghanistan (“nice place to send refugees, wouldn’t want to live there”) beyond the current withdrawal date. Bishop the statesperson, Bishop the anointed one, Bishop the heir apparent. At least, that’s how she’d like the rest of us, and particularly her parliamentary colleagues, to see her at the moment her leader’s failings are on such public display.

    For the moment, her colleagues would settle for a leader who resides on Earth, rather than one who frequently visits our little world but whose permanent home is on some other political planet,…]

  8. TPOF – I think the media largely beat the scholarship issue into the ground at the time. It adds to the favours for friends impression of this government, but it’s probably best left there.

  10. teh_drewski@1976

    Gecko – the rumour is, as far as I know, that Abbott’s family are largely for display purposes only at this point in his career.

    As it’s pretty irrelevant to his performance as PM, I think the media are quite right to ignore it, even if it’s true, which I have no idea about.

    Oh that. Thanks teh_drewski

    And quite right they should ignore stuff like that too. Otherwise we’d be fed nonsense about things like 20year old slush funds… or unmarried (barren) women (with bottoms, no less). Thank goodness we’ve a media that steers away from all that irrelevant shit. 😐

  13. Steve777

    He also has this on his high rotation play list “……the disastrous budget/financial situation that we inherited from the previous/Labor government.”

  16. [For the moment, her colleagues would settle for a leader who resides on Earth, rather than one who frequently visits our little world but whose permanent home is on some other political planet,…]

    Is Keane referring to Abbott with that or JBishop? It’s somewhat hard to tell.

  21. -Not sure. What we do know however is that no Liberal MP is going to hold her up as a whistle-blowing hero again.

    Fess – The LNP PM just gave an Australian knighthood to Greek-born, British consort. You make a brave statement in weird times!!

  22. GG @ 2020

    Some points to ponder…

    A total wipeout in Queeland to Newman … Suspect Abbott’s position would be terminal and moves could be afoot to start a spill

    A win to Newman Govt with a <10 seat majority … expect a slow burn including leaks and 'rumblings' through 2015

    Question is … if the latter would Newman still be dumped?

  24. briefly – But my point is that, if Greece DOESN’T default, it still won’t be able to raise new credit! Rather, it will just stay on the treadmill. So what’s the downside to defaulting? Obviously if it stays on the Euro it won’t be able to run an expansionary fiscal policy unless it soaks the rich. Le’t’s hope it does.

  25. I have zero per cent interest in JJJ and Taylor Swift combined but accept that other Bludgers have some interest. From today’s Crikey:

    [Haters gonna hate, hate, hate. While debate and think pieces continue to dissect the phenomenon of #Tay4Hottest100, (for those who have managed to ignore it — BuzzFeed campaigned for Taylor Swift’s Shake It Off to win the Hottest 100, and it was disqualified by the station), we are glad to know that the Young Liberal Movement have taken a position on the issue. This motion was passed at their annual conference on Saturday afternoon, condemning any move to disqualify Taylor Swift from the poll as “the ABC undertaking North Korean democracy”.]

  26. SHB,

    I’m expecting the result in Qld to be a hung Parliament. Which will also see the feralocity of the Backbenchers unleashed.

    Also, NSW is going to the polls in March. With Vic gone and Queensland on a knife edge, the Libs will be after blood.

  27. SGH 2022 – I still feel it is unlikely the LNP will lose in Queensland, but it did strike me this morning that if that did happen, there would be a Federal Liberal Spill when they all come back to Canberra a week later and Tony would be gone.

    And I think if LNP returned “narrowly” ie lose about 20 seats, they would probably lose Ashgrove so their Campbell Newman problem would be solved. And then they will line up to pay glowing tributes to their beloved “Dear Leader”. Cue the violins.

  28. Tennis Whinge:

    Just turned the tennis on to hear Sharapova playing. Can’t stand it, so turned it off. Personally I think screaming on every shot is cheating of the highest order, and it should be banned.

    I also don’t get why females are exempt from playing to 5 sets… it takes fatigue out of the equation and this, for my money, lessens the result.

    There, that feels better. As you were.

  30. [briefly – But my point is that, if Greece DOESN’T default, it still won’t be able to raise new credit! Rather, it will just stay on the treadmill. So what’s the downside to defaulting? Obviously if it stays on the Euro it won’t be able to run an expansionary fiscal policy unless it soaks the rich. Le’t’s hope it does.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN]

    I imagine that all capital and income that can be shifted has been shifted. Any capital that can fly has taken flight. Any mobile rich persons are gone or will shortly follow.

    The rich greeks got that way by not paying taxes. They are not going to sit around while SYRIZA strips them of THEIR ill-gotten loot. Tax payments, such as they were, fell before the election as people realized that SYRIZA was going to form government.

    SYRIZA has apparently signalled that it wants the institutional reforms (including the building of a real tax collection capacity) back on the table.

    SYRIZA is also going to open the social spending tap, immediately ensuring that Greece’s budget surplus goes down the tubes and worsening its overall debt situation. This will no doubt be excacerbated by the ongoing decline in tax receipts triggered by the prospect of SYRIZA gaining government.

    I wonder who the Left are going to blame for the consequences when the greeks continue to spend more than they earn, frighten old capital out of the country, frighten new capital from going into the country and continue not to pay their taxes?

    Oh, wait… the banks, the germans and rich greeks.

  31. BW

    [I understand that SYRIZA is not going to pursue this sort of institutional reform with as much vigour as the last mob. Instead it is going to tell EU taxpayers that the 200 billion euro they loaned to Greece should just be wiped off the books.

    Basically, SYRIZA is just another bunch of Greekmailers: give us the dough or we’ll wreck the joint.

    This from a mob that have avaded around 300 billion euros worth of tax over the last decade.]

    I think it’ll cost them too much not to implement that system. There’s too much loses from not being able to properly collect taxes, and having to pay for recovery would cost more than to withhold funds in the first place.

    Greece doesn’t have to forgo paying the entire debt. What they have to do is convince the EU to write off part of it and there has been precedent for this I believe.

    Some of the arguments I hear is that some are arguing that Germany had their debt written off in a bigger portion after inflation by other European nations than what is asked in this case.

    About your point @2000, I can’t speak for ANEL, but I think they’re the equivalent to Liberal off-shoots, some of which with extreme opinions, akin to Bob Day, Cory Bernardi or Pauline Hanson.

    Whereas To Potami has been clear from the start that they won’t go for any anti-European measures and that might including reneging or writing off debts.

    Despite ANEL giving supply and confidence, I can see To Potami and PASOK voting with Syriza with some of the more left-leaning issues.

    KKE (the Communists) are to the far-left and for ideology’s sake, will not do any deals with any parties from the looks of it.

    [If he hates Buddhists, what would Kammenos think of the Greens…]

    If I’m not mistaken, Syriza, within its coalition, includes Green-Left parties. Doesn’t seem to have any bearing on Kammenos.

    With that being said, I couldn’t care more or less how Syriza will go but I will look with interest on the outcome from this. It makes for an interesting case study where if they do well, they should be emulated, and if they do terribly, then it’s a lesson well learned for others. I think the actions will have as much global effect as it did with Iceland’s reforms.

  34. [I also don’t get why females are exempt from playing to 5 sets… it takes fatigue out of the equation and this, for my money, lessens the result.]

    It’s also one reason given for why they earn less in prize money (in some tournaments). Which I think is fair enough. It’s not like female athletes are able to play 5-set matches, and if they want to change the current arrangements, just do it.

  35. Gecko

    [Can’t stand it, so turned it off. Personally I think screaming on every shot is cheating of the highest order, and it should be banned. ]

    Yep. The umpires should have stopped Selles all those years ago

  37. [This motion was passed at their annual conference on Saturday afternoon, condemning any move to disqualify Taylor Swift from the poll as “the ABC undertaking North Korean democracy”.]

    It’s a good thing the Young Liberals are focusing on such important issues.

  38. Ctar1,

    I reckon the better alternative is to turn down the picture and listen to the sound.

    That way the vision can be anything that comes to mind.

  39. Re Gecko – I agree about shrieking at the Tennis. It wouldn’t be tolerated in Criket: bowler – “Urgghhhhh!!”; batsman: “Wheeeeee…..”.

    People who know say the grunt is not heard on the practice courts. Greats of the past didn’t do it – it seemed to start in the early 1990s. The only reason for it must be to put off the opponent and to mask the sound of the serve or return. It’s cheating. Umpires should be more like League and AFL Referees – send cheats off.

  40. RR @2027

    This discussion suddenly reminded me of that ABC documentary on The Nationals which was replayed on ABC on Sunday night. Despite the name, it seems focused on Queensland and Joh (especially Joh).

    I wonder if the outcome of this election might be a re-hash of that era.

  41. td, Gecko – there used to be a 5 set final for the WTA tour final from 1984-1998. I remember seeing some of these. Looking at the scores, the only 5-setter winner who would have lost in 3 sets was Seles against Sabatini in 1990.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WTA_Tour_Championships

    I think the main reason they have not gone to 5-setters is that the depth in women’s tennis is poor. Thus many early round in grand slam which are already scores like 6-0 6-1 would just become 6-0 6-1 6-1.

    But I was disappointed they changed back in that one tournament that did have a five set final as it set it apart even from the 4 majors.

  42. Barnaby Joyce on 2pm news Sydney displaying his disgust at Abbott giving a Knighthood to Prince Phillip.

    There are apparently meetings of coalition members taking place now.

  43. BW @2025

    [This motion was passed at their annual conference on Saturday afternoon, condemning any move to disqualify Taylor Swift from the poll as “the ABC undertaking North Korean democracy”.]

    This explains the sudden outburst from TBA on this issue yesterday, where out of the blue he compared Triple J to Nazi Germany.

  44. [If I’m not mistaken, Syriza, within its coalition, includes Green-Left parties. Doesn’t seem to have any bearing on Kammenos.

    With that being said, I couldn’t care more or less how Syriza will go but I will look with interest on the outcome from this. It makes for an interesting case study where if they do well, they should be emulated, and if they do terribly, then it’s a lesson well learned for others. I think the actions will have as much global effect as it did with Iceland’s reforms.

    by Raaraa]

    SYRIZA is going into government coalition with Kammenos’ Party.

  47. GG

    [I reckon the better alternative is to turn down the picture and listen to the sound.]

    Yep. The ‘mute’ button button is not only useful for Tones and Christine Milne but also for tennis.

    That Polish guy the other day was way out there.

  48. [While Tony Abbott was preparing to bestow a knighthood reserved for “pre-eminent Australians” to a wealthy Greek bigot living in the UK, another type of anointing was taking place in New York. As revealed in the Financial Review, on the weekend Rupert “all Muslims not guilty” Murdoch received Julie Bishop, Foreign Minister of his far-flung vassal state, Australia, and senior member of the client government he helped install there.]

    How is this not corruption, by a foreigner no less?

  50. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 18m 18 minutes ago
    Liberal Senator: “can someone put a fork in him he’s done”.]

    Oh boy.

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