Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.
Labor got scared by the “hit list” phrase used by the Coalition in 2004, and ever since the 2004 election loss they haven’t gone anywhere near the gross inequality in the funding of Australia’s schools. Julia Gillard decided to give every school in the country a funding increase, including the high fee private schools. David Gonski’s recommendation was to come up with several billion dollars extra in schools funding each year and to focus that extra funding on the least resourced quarter of Australia’s schools. He didn’t want the extra funding to be spread thinly across all the schools in the nation. He wanted all of it to go those schools which are chronically under-resourced. PM Gillard could not bring herself to do that because Labor has internalized a false lesson from the 2004 campaign: that private school funding is the third rail of Australian politics. Touch it and you die.
PM Gillard’s reforms are better than nothing but they are a timid, diluted version of what is actually needed to bring the least resourced schools up to an adequate level of resources.
Jesus.
A coalition govt implements a raft of harsh measures on boats, supported by the Senate cross bench, not the opposition, and Greens nuff nuffs here spend their evening whingeing and moaning…..about the Labor party!
Talk about pissing into the wind.
Nicholas
Whitlam was the first Federal leader to look for a way to fund private schools (specifically Catholic ones), so Labor started the funding of private schools by the Commonwealth.
That said, both MySchools and Gonski were ways to direct more funding to public schools whilst taking the politics out of the equation.
MySchools rates schools according to performance and demographics. Unsuprisingly, the schools which rate poorly and thus demonstrate they are in need of greater assistance tend to be public schools and small, regional private schools (again, the Catholic school system).
Gonski proposed to direct funding to areas of greatest identified need.
So Labor found a way to direct more money to public schools without saying that was what they were doing.
They wouldn’t have been so twee about it if there weren’t good grounds for believing that a direct attack on private school funding would involve some electoral backlash.
(Of ongoing interest in both the discussion on asylum seekers and private schools is the idea that these issues haven’t been polled, focus grouped, etc to the nth degree. Political parties don’t tend to adopt strategies on a whim).
From the Urban Dictionary:
nuff-nuff
A Retard.
Someone that can’t integrate properly in society.
Someone that has a very low IQ usually due to learning disabilities of no fault of their own as opposed to a ning-nang or general idiot who is stupid because they never engaged their brain or tried to learn anything.
Used in a derogatory way to describe idiots who behave as if they never received an education or to decribe a person who behaves in a way that contradicts their IQ level.
The bus was full of nuff-nuffs going to special school.
The guy was a complete nuff-nuff.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=nuff-nuff
Why should that surprise you confessions? I for one take it for granted that the Coalition is conniving and cruel on this issue, and the bill passed by that gaggle of twits in the Senate will come back to haunt them.
Labor is the only party capable of implementing humane policies on refugees, and as such I, as a member of the ALP, want to do all I can to see that Labor does so.
Morrison got his bills through parliament, can point to the notch on his belt which says STOP THE BOATS, meaning that he is one of the very few Abbott ministers who has successfully implemented the govt’s agenda.
I know that this is distasteful to some, and tantamount to accusations of being a sociopath and other hysteria laden terms from others, but at the end of the day he’s done his job. Not many of his peers can claim similarly.
This has to have lifted his leadership stocks with the partyroom in the event Abbott is replaced before the next election. Despite all the hoo-ha about JBishop.
[No, because of Tampa. This goes back well before Rudd.]
I agree, it could even go back to what happened that time boatloads of strangers arrived on these shores from Europe.
I do feel Rudd had a chance to draw a line and move in a new direction. He probably wasn’t up to it, or to being PM to be honest. The further we get from 2007 the more that seems apparent to me.
No one in 2016 will care that Morrison stopped some boats in 2014.
JD:
It surprises me because of the constant carping and whingeing of those here. For all accounts Labor opposed the govt’s bills, yet for some unknown reason, we’re on constant frickin replay from the days when the then Labor govt (yes, government not opposition!) first proposed the Malaysia Solution.
Some still want roses and chocolates when they aren’t even on offer. They need to get a clue.
Nicholas,
Is that from the Green’s membership prospecting questionnaire?
[ No one in 2016 will care that Morrison stopped some boats in 2014. ]
Something the Libs will be very upset about i’m sure. 🙂 The lowlife scum.
confessions – Given how heinous the bill was, Labor is definitely to be commended for voting against it. For me, it’s up there with Labor’s vote against the Iraq War in 2003. I can only speak for myself when I say I supported the Malaysia solution. But I won’t stop trying to play my own small part in trying to get Labor to implement more humane policies if it wins in 2016.
[So – regardless of what I was taught in school, or what I think I should think because it’s the accepted thing to think – I think every life has value, and hundreds of lives are worth saving.]
If you think every life has value how can you possible accept the idea of infinite mandatory detention? Or of not processing claims by people cos they come from Srighanistan.
Fair Dinkum if those of you who think that “being nice to refugees” is somehow a vote winner you are in a state of denial or live in some parallel universe, particularly when those refugees are from the Middle East. Xenophobia is very much part of the Australian psyche. If Australians keep on losing jobs and having their living conditions downgraded by Liberal NP governments as they are at the moment nothing will change if Labor starts being “nice to refugees”. Things will only get worse.
So if that’s what you want keep pushing the “be nice to refugees” line and Labor will probably be out of office for ever.
Nicholas
The Liberals would have some difficulty in running the anti-private school line against someone like Bill Shorten as he went to the sort of school they approve off, We saw this earlier when Shorten attacked the government over it changing the Gonski policies.
You’re right, changing first-term Prime Ministers was an extremely well thought out strategy – a model of diligent decision-making. No trace of panic or insanity.
As I said earlier, if you don’t know the right questions, polls won’t give you the answers you need. Looking at polls which show that people aren’t sympathetic to asylum seekers is not a sufficient basis for deciding whether a humane AS policy would produce an electorally significant net loss of votes for Labor. If rigorous data to that effect existed, it would be widely discussed by people who actually understand these matters (a group which seems not to include Labor’s senior strategists, sadly). Can’t a major party attract some decent psephologists to advise them? Possum? William Bowe? Kevin Bonham? Top tier social researchers from our universities?
[No one in 2016 will care that Morrison stopped some boats in 2014.]
Wrong. Of all the coalition promises pre election, the 3 that stick in people’s minds are stopping the boats, ending the carbon tax and mining tax. It has delivered on all three of those. This gives them a good platform from which to launch a resurgence campaign for re-election.
It would appear from PB in any case that the Greens are choosing triumphalism over the govt in the hope that boats are their downfall. I would argue that this is premature and naive.
I see we are redoing AS again.
Rather than go back and rehash what went wrong in the past which cannot be changed lets talk about what can be done in future.
How can we get a policy up that recognises international law and is humane? Something I know Labor people want to do.
I think it is important to add that I do not think Labor did break international law. Remember the cork bottle effect we are seeing at AS centres now was not intended by Rudd.
Rather he intended AS to be settled in PNG one day not immediately which is why no formal agreement on settlement was made. Instead the idea was to work on a real regional solution with ASEAN.
The international law breaking and deaths rape etc have happened because the LNP do not understand this point. These offshore camps were transit camps for short term occupancy only. Which is also why the security etc was built as it was.
In any discussion about AS it has to be realised what was Labor and what is the LNP.
Fessy is right, the ALP need to not allow the boats to become central to the campaign or they risk seeing this government get re-elected.
The boat issue needs to disappear and be replaced by the policy of increasing the immigration intake, there really is no other option.
JD:
The best resolution to boat arrivals is a regional approach, which Labor has advocated for years. Not only does it stop people making a risky uncertain journey by boat to Australia, but ensures that the region has an orderly migration system, something that will be needed when the worst effects of AGW really start to bite.
As predicted, the bellicose Abbott is becoming more amenable to Labor’s agenda in Victoria once they were elected.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/fate-of-states-big-projects-thrashed-out-over-lunch-20141205-1213ov.html
confessions @ 1217 – that’s assuming that no scandals about Operation Sovereign Borders, or Manus, or Nauru, or the refoulement of genuine refugees, come out in the next two years. They might not. But if they do, then all bets are off as to whether boats will be a positive for the Coalition in 2016.
confessions @ 1220 – I am entirely in agreement with you on that. I think we should be setting up a processing centre in Indonesia.
Does anybody know if the children to be released from detention are all unaccompanied minors or will children be removed from their parents. Also what is to stop Morrison from taking them out of detention and returning them to their country of origin.
And really, does nobody want to discuss the very real possibility that Scott Morrison is now presumably the PM in waiting? JBishop is being chaperoned on her official duties which says it all about how the Liberals view their women MPs who get positive media coverage.
Or do people really want to choose the nuff nuff option of OMG but Labor did this on boats back in the day? Cause I gotta say, we’ve done Labor-boats-eyeroll to the frickin end of days, and there’s only so long one can spend looking in the rearview mirror.
jules
[If you think every life has value how can you possible accept the idea of infinite mandatory detention?]
I don’t.
[Or of not processing claims by people cos they come from Srighanistan.]
I don’t.
Now, back to you and your willingness to let hundreds drown so you can claim the high moral ground…
[that’s assuming that no scandals about Operation Sovereign Borders, or Manus, or Nauru]
Unlike the previous Labor govt, the coalition has run a hush hush closed shop.
Vicious cycle: you need access to the issues in order to report them. But if the issues aren’t forthcoming, they won’t be reported.
confessions @ 1227 – that’s unfortunately a good point.
As for Liberal leadersh*t, JBish is a lightweight who’s bought way too much into her own hype. Scott Morrison is a Nazi. Having said that Morrison definitely seems to have improved his stocks in the Liberal Party. But his conduct as Immigration Minister, while ruthless, immoral and efficient, does not well for any future as Prime Minister. He won’t be able to stonewall when things aren’t going his way.
fess,
Unless there is an unexpected surge in arrivals AS will die as an issue. Labor will run dead in 2016 and basically endorse the Government’s position. Most of the AS will be re-settled, so there is nothing to see there.
No doubt there will be the usual sound and fury from the usual suspects. But, the majority of voters endorse the current situation and that means Labor won’t be changing things any time soon.
The self appointed morality police can froth at the mouth as much as they like.
JD @ 1188
What i described already happened when Howard was in power, and IIRR back then “people smugglers” were more likely to be out of work fishing types and the networks were more informal. The reality is attempting to stop people smuggling may not stop it or even slow it, just increase the risks to asylum seekers associated with it.
If Morrison doing what he does is what it takes to actually stop the boats then we should let them come.
My previous comment should read, “does not bode well”.
Nicholas
[You’re right, changing first-term Prime Ministers was an extremely well thought out strategy – a model of diligent decision-making.]
Absolutely. Planned about a year in advance, executed smoothly (as was acknowledged at the time; it’s only in hindsight that it’s been painted as a disaster). Unfortunately, Rudd was more of a tw*t than anyone in the Labor party thought possible.
[Looking at polls which show that people aren’t sympathetic to asylum seekers is not a sufficient basis for deciding whether a humane AS policy would produce an electorally significant net loss of votes for Labor.]
But it’s a very good start.
At the time of Tampa, Labor in Indi was polling on 48% compared to the then Sophie Panapolous on 52%. Overnight, the polling plunged back to 60/40. Without Tampa, it’s possible Mirabella would never have been elected.
Of course you can keep changing the question until you get the answer you want. This seems to be an attitude commonly taken by the Greens to facts which don’t suit them – if the electoral system doesn’t deliver the results you want, then it needs to be changed; if the polls don’t show what you want them to show, they mustn’t be being done properly, etc, etc.
Real political parties man up and accept reality. Sometimes it’s not as pretty as they’d like it to be, and sometimes they work to change it, but it still has to be accepted.
Morrison plays well in NSW. I doubt that he will travel well beyond his home region.
[I think we should be setting up a processing centre in Indonesia.]
Yeah, bugger what the Indonesians think about it. 😡
Bushfire Bill – 1177 – Glad to hear that. I am still amazed at Danger Dog – many dogs seem to go almost crazy with thunder and lightning, and like many other animals seem to sense these things coming long before humans. As your late “Bog the Dog” apparently demonstrated.
Clearly Danger Dog is one of a kind!
gg
“Stop the boats” plays well in WA as this is where the boats are aiming for.
Dan Gulberry @ 1234 – if you had read my previous comments before posting, you would have plainly seen that I said that we should establish a processing centre in cooperation with the Indonesians, with a commensurate increase in aid funding to ensure they benefit from the arrangement as well. Forgive me if I didn’t want to type it out again.
Lenore Taylor sums up the state of play
[Every morning the major parties send out the “messages” of the day. These aren’t really super-secret documents since ministers and MPs dutifully recite them into any available open microphone.
But seeing the government’s messages in their original form is helpful in making sense of the end of an astonishingly bad first year, in which the government lost the confidence of the electorate with spectacular severity and speed.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/05/the-coalitions-own-messages-are-neither-coherent-nor-convincing#comments
A clear Barnaby fail.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/25691936/no-chance-of-rural-bank-joyce/
The Nationals set themselves up as some kind of influence within the coalition partyroom on behalf of farmers, but as usual when it comes down to it:
[He says the federal government’s concessional loans scheme would lead to farmers getting into even more debt.]
Which means:
1. they rolled over to their Liberal peers.
2. they are permitting things getting worse for farmers.
3. they really have NFI what has to happen.
All of which is fine if the policy argument is there, but FFS stop claiming you are the voice of rural Australia/farmers/etc.
JommyDoyle 1200 – I was reading about the recent Clacton by-election in the UK, won by the UKIP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11145780/Clacton-by-election-UKIP-voters-turn-their-backs-on-the-world-beyond-the-pier.html
Tim Young, the candidate for Labour, which came a distant second in the 2010 election, also despairs of the debate on immigration, suggesting the by-election has become a one-constituency referendum on Europe.
All the more bizarre, he explained, since the latest statistics compiled by his party’s councillors show that only 249 migrants moved into the local council region last year, fewer than the number of locals who left the area.
Try telling that to Mrs Mattacks. “If you go down to the town, you see them,” she said. “There are thousands coming in all the time, without the ones we don’t know about.”
As someone commented, if there really were thousands of foreigners, surely the UKIP would not have won so easily!
I think if we get Turnbull as Treasurer it will only be if Julie Bishop is PM.
Thus the stuff we are hearing about Hockey could be part of the make Bishop campaign we have seen some Newscorpse hacks running.
It is telling the Joe on the Nose story was done by the editor brought in to make sure the Tele said what Murdoch wanted.
As long as it isn’t a net vote loser for Labor, a humane AS policy is an urgent priority and politically feasible.
In this context humane means no indefinite detention. People need to be in the community and permitted to work and study while their applications are processed.
Asylum seeker policy must also be equitable in its relative impacts on poor and rich nations. We shouldn’t be foisting the tasks of processing and resettlement onto Malaysia, Indonesia, PNG, and Nauru. Those countries have more than enough to be getting on with without us getting precious about asylum seekers setting foot on our soil. Let’s just process them on the Australian mainland. A on-shore detention centre is one quarter of the cost of an off-shore one, and on-shore community-based detention is cheaper still. So let’s be fiscally responsible and let applicants live, work and study in the Australian community while their applications are processed. Any sharing of the resettlement load should be negotiated between us and other RICH countries. We shouldn’t bribe PNG to do our work for us, like Labor did, or bribe Nauru and Cambodia, like the Coalition did. Those countries are not suitable locations for resettlement and it is a human rights violation to shove people there to live in squalor.
[Unless there is an unexpected surge in arrivals AS will die as an issue. ]
Not so sure. I can see the coalition whipping the boats issue for all it’s worth from here to the next election in an attempt to wedge Labor.
Dan,
There is a difference between the message and the messager, comrade.
Nicholas
On AS and polling. At elections we do not really know as its one policy in a bag of policy promises.
However what we do know. Boats has been running hard in the press as the government pushed the issue to get the legislation through this week.
If AS is a vote winner how much lower would the polls be now?
not sure if any one has noticed it yet as I have been in the tally room all day but the District of Prahran is a 3 way contest between Liberal, Labor and Green with 14 votes in it, and 7 votes from caulfield pre poll from electors deemed not eligible to vote
Lateline is doing a political scorecard.
One RW commentator gave a 5.
billie
Lets hope Labor or the Greens get up. 🙂
[and Greens nuff nuffs here spend their evening whingeing and moaning…..about the Labor party!]
confessions Neither JD or me are greens, you need to exercise your scroll finger. You’re right about Morrison tho – ironic that his treating people like shit makes him a potential leader and Hockey doing the same thing to different people might end his chances of leading.
[Now, back to you and your willingness to let hundreds drown so you can claim the high moral ground…]
Zoomster if what Morrison is doing is the closest we can come to preventing hundreds drowning perhaps it isn’t worth it.
Regional processing won’t stop boats, it might lower the numbers to something acceptable to the public. But it won’t stop people trying to arrive here by boat. Doing what Morrison has might be enough, maybe not.
Regional processing for its own sake is a thing that needs to happen because the numbers of refugees in SE Asia will increase. That is a given. Its got nothing to do with stopping the boats, but if its done right it would be a humane and sensible approach to the whole issue.
And if/when the whole region tackles the problem we’re going to have to do it thinking ahead 50 years to possibly hundreds of millions (maybe more) of refugees on the move.
[I think if we get Turnbull as Treasurer it will only be if Julie Bishop is PM.]
And then watch all the old white male social conservatives fall over with massive heart attacks, including most of the Cabinet. If Jules was to have a go at PMship, she would need an old conservative white male as running partner to make the team half acceptable to the party. More likely the lemmings will follow Abbott over whatever cliff he leads them.