The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to trend the Coalition’s way, to the extent that it reaches two milestones this week: parity with Labor on two-party preferred, and an absolute majority on the seat projection, albeit by the barest of margins. Three new polls were added to the national figures, those being Galaxy, the regular weekly Essential Research, and the fortnightly Morgan (fortnightly in the sense of publication, although the poll is conducted on a weekly basis). Also out this week was the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which have been factored into the state breakdowns, along with the regular state breakdowns from Morgan (published) and Essential (unpublished). The combined effect is to add seat each to the Coalition tally in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, while removing one in Victoria and Tasmania.
The quarterly Newspoll is a big deal for BludgerTrack, which is never better serviced for state data than it is immediately after being fed with three months’ worth of state-level Newspoll results. To this end, later today I will get around to publishing my own detailed quarterly state breakdowns for BludgerTrack, the previous instalment of which can be seen here.
BludgerTrack is still in the position of being slightly more favourable to the Coalition than any single published poll result, due to a variety of factors. Perhaps this could be best explained if I run through each of the pollsters:
Nielsen of course closed up shop a few months ago, which was significant in that BludgerTrack deemed it to be the most Coalition-friendly pollster, and the only one which adjusted for any substantial bias to that effect. Now that it’s gone, the model has a clear tendency to skew to the right of what a straight polling average would tell you.
Newspoll is rated as neutral by the model, but it hasn’t reported for a fortnight. When it did report, it gave Labor a 51-49 lead when the primary vote numbers looked a lot more like 50-50. It’s the primary votes that BludgerTrack goes off, so this was a 50-50 poll as far as the model was concerned. Clearly Labor got rounded up in the Newspoll result – it follows that they also got rounded down in BludgerTrack.
Galaxy is taken very seriously by BludgerTrack, and receives next to no bias adjustment at all. This week it gave Labor a lead of 51-49, although putting its rounded primary votes into the model produces a result of 50.6-49.4 going off 2013 preferences (as BludgerTrack does). If not for this poll, the Coalition would have moved into the lead.
ReachTEL’s last poll a fortnight ago had Labor leading 51-49, and BludgerTrack adjusts this pollster slightly in favour of the Coalition.
Morgan is reckoned to have the biggest bias in the game, that being in favour of Labor. Its result on respondent-allocated preferences this week was 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor, but the more telling point so far as BludgerTrack is concerned is that it was the Coalition’s best result since February.
Essential is noted for being slow to respond to changes, and for this reason, BludgerTrack treats its bias in a unique way, by dynamically adjusting it according to how its deviates from the model over time. Since it’s stayed stuck with Labor on the cusp of leading 52-48 or 53-47, while the other pollsters have moved to the Coalition, a Labor bias adjustment is increasingly being factored into its results.
The other development in BludgerTrack this week is that Morgan published a set of phone poll numbers on leadership ratings, and they were relatively very rosy for Tony Abbott, who wasn’t too far off parity on net approval and had a pretty solid lead on preferred prime minister. This has a pretty sharp effect on the BludgerTrack leadership ratings, which aren’t exactly spoiled for data and are always pretty sensitive to the most recent result, even if the poll in question was from a rather small sample, as was the case here.
UPDATE: As promised, here are the detailed state-level breakdowns featuring primary vote numbers and charts tracking the progress of the primary and two-party votes in each state. Crikey subscribers may enjoy my analysis of these results in today’s email, assuming it gets published.
I also promised two weeks ago that I was going to start tracking betting odds in these mid-week BludgerTrack posts, then forgot about it last week. Now that I’ve remembered again, I can inform you that there has been movement to the Coalition over the part fortnight in Centrebet’s federal election odds, with the Coalition in from $1.50 to $1.45 and Labor out from $2.55 to $2.70. Centrebet’s price on Campbell Newman being re-elected in Queensland has also shortened from $1.36 to $1.28, with Labor out from $3.15 to $3.65. There has been a very slight move to Labor for the Victorian election, with Labor in from $1.23 to $1.22 and the Coalition out from $4.00 and $4.10 – which sounds a bit generous to Labor for mine. The Betfair market evidently thinks so, as it has the Coalition in from $4.10 to $3.40 and Labor out from $1.48 to $1.59.
Sustainable future@43
Yes, I wondered the same thing. Doesn’t this indicate the model needs some tweaking?
guytaur@13
I would be very wary of pursuing ‘cost of living’ as an issue.
Most of the cost of living is outside of government control so you end up raising expectation you can’d fulfil. You make a rod for you own back when you win and get constantly reminded about what you said in opposition.
Better to focus on individual components such as the GP co-payment.
Zoomster
You are living in fairy land, just as you were in 2012 about Gillard. I do not want to turn this into an attack on Shorten, because it serves no purpose.
However Labor does need to look deep into its entrails and figure out why it has lost the budget bounce. Now my personal feeling is that it took the wrong turn on security and the war, and even on Ukraine. Being Abbott light on “terror” will not win a single vote and just turn off some others. Perhaps critically new voters of the left who are choosing for the first time will choose green and there they will park for the rest of their lives. Labor loses the enthusiasm, passion and hard workers it needs to energise its campaign.
Would opposing Iraq III have lost it votes. Possibly in the short term BUT as the almighty mess unfolds by election time Labor would be shown to have been wise.
The second problem is that by being “me, me little old me tooooo” Billy Bob just looks weak and ineffectual. Unfortunately a perception of being weak is deadly for a leader and difficult to overcome. For Billy Bob to the public knowledge that he was best buddies down at the US embassy probably means he needed to come out fighting to distance himself. Anyway too late now.
I am resigned to another 5 years of Abbott. Hopefully to public will use the senate to keep a rein on Abbott and co.
P1 @ 51
I believe any point on bludgertrack takes into account data at all points in time, though it’s likely that closer points contribute more than distant points. This means two things:
a) bludgertrack is following the trend, which is currently downward.
b) points at the end of the graph are more volatile because they’re at a discontinuity, missing the contribution from future points
You might be right Sustainable future – but there’s no poll evidence at all before us that Napthine will win.
Quite the opposite.
Plus he has to get a 0.3% swing to even tread water post- redistribution, and doesnt even have incumbments in five of his nine most marginal seats (4 are sitting ALP in now nominal LNP marginals, one is Shaw).
Its true the ALP will need to run a good campaign – but the LNP has been robbing taxpayers for months to promote themselves and so far little shift.
The redistribution has made it easier for GRNs to hold BOP in the upper house.
Zoomster
Agree with Bemused. What possible electoral impact will “cost of living” have. it is not even as if the government is responsible for cost of living changes.
I mean they are: the destruction of our manufacturing industry will bite big time on cost of living and quite soon but none of these issues are easy to explain. to the public and will have about zero electoral impact. The decline in the dollar is certain to hurt us all soon, but not sure how the ALP can get electoral mileage out of it.
It occurs to me that means the margin of error at the end of the graph is higher than in the middle.
YEs, I think the ALP would be wise to be ones seen to put limits and acheivement makrers on the IRaq involvement, if they are to maintain bipartisanship.
Imnot too worried about the closing gap – this was always going to happen with a war on.
The LNP still stink to high heaven on every domestic front, and itll tell over time.
Where the ALP eneds to focus is vision – be getting those messges out about a fiarer better country, not just opposing an unfair budget (though that is necessary).
I wouldnt be cutting too many budget deals with this lot either. Let them stew in their own incompetence.
DisplayName@54
Yes, I just re-read all the methodology stuff for BludgerTrack, and I can see why it says 50-50 even when the polling it is based on does not. I never really paid much attention to it before.
I think William should add an estimate for MoE of BludgerTrack – although given the convoluted calculation of BludgerTrack, how you would calculate such a thing is beyond me!
bemused
Kevin Rudd did cost of living. The whole kitchen table budget thing.
Unemployment is just as out of control of government as cost of living. Yet still elections are won and lost on it.
I’m sure William has a fancy pants computer to help him.
Probably the one sitting on his desktop ;).
Zoomster at 35:
I do not agree that Alberici, whom I am no great fan of, was unfair in the slightest to her guest.
It was perfectly legitimate for Alberici to ask the guest whether he condemned ISIS decapitations. It is a yes/no question. It is one I was very interested to know the answer to. That the only answer to the question given by the guest was that killing people was, generally abhorrent, and that the “West” was pretty directly responsible for the death of millions in “his” lands (a curious malapropism for one who is apparently an Australian citizen) was no fault of Alberici and I draw my own conclusion.
She allowed the guest to “answer” the question by stating that ISIS actions needed to be seen in context – and indeed demonstrated she listened to the answer by fairly accurately quoting back that answer to him later in the interview before again repeating her original question. That the guest only wanted to avoid answering that question and reframe the interview in the hope that viewers would take a different perspective to the activities of ISIS only demonstrates either the guest’s lack of trust that the viewer would continue to listen to him after he told us decapitation was a legitimate tool in the rightful campaign of ISIS or lack of conviction in his own conflicted moral position which is, apparently, support for the ISIS “end” notwithstanding the means by which ISIS seek to achieve it.
For those posters who think the interview was a waste of time because interviewer and guest spent much of the time talking over each other I disagree. I learnt that there are significant groups of people in Australia who not only support ISIS but are prepared to do so on national TV and ignore the reality of the ISIS campaign.
In my opinion guests on interviewers are NOT entitled to use the interview as a platform for their own unexamined opinion. It is the necessary role of the interviewer to probe those parts of the guest’s opinion that are most difficult to reconcile with say, the laws of physics, basic facts or logic. I only wish Alberici would do the same when the likes of Abbott, Hockey, Pyne and co do the same.
Guytaur
Kevin Rudd did run cost of living but it did not work out particularly well for him. Apart from focusing on Coleworths and banks there is not a lot that can be done, especially now with the dollar tumbling. Petrol prices and electricity prices are issues but ones ALP should stay away from just now.
Also the real issue now is unemployment and job security. Cost of living is an issue to run when the economy is booming and some people get left behind. it is not an issue for times of employment stress.
Can Abbott get anything right? But his lies go out first and the corrections don’t have much effect.
[TONY Abbott’s office admitted yesterday he was wrong in claiming Islamic activist group Hizb ut-Tahrir planned to import foreign “preachers of hate” to stir up antagonism against Western involvement in Syria.
The admission came as the Prime Minister indicated that under new anti-terror laws he planned to crack down on the group, which is proscribed in some countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, but not in Australia and most Western countries.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/abbott-admits-islamic-hate-preacher-claim-false/story-fn59nqld-1227084291721
@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Immigration Minister @ScottMorrisonMP is speaking on #asylumseekers policy http://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW #auspol #refugees
Windhover
Phew! I thought I was the only one who thought that way.
guytaur@60
No. Governments can have a profound influence on employment / unemployment.
Look what Labor did during the GFC to maintain employment and look what the Libs have done wiping out the car industry. More to come.
DTT
Cost of living is the issue. All the attacks by Abbott have been on cost of living. Add pension cuts uni fees medical co payments privitisation added costs of climate change effects increased unemployment.
All adds to cost of living for most voters while Abbott works to reduce cost of living for billionaires and foreign multinational companies
dtt
[Cost of living is an issue to run when the economy is booming and some people get left behind. it is not an issue for times of employment stress.]
That seems backward. Surely the more stressed people are about their income/employment, the more significant they will find cost of living issues.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/10/07/keane-why-the-war-on-terror-gets-a-blank-cheque-but-we-ignore-bigger-threats/
Good article, well worth the read – particularly by ALP pollies.
Some excerpts.
[Normally, a minister announcing a commitment costing hundreds of millions of dollars, with no spending or timing constraints and no offsetting savings, is savaged both by the opposition and media commentators….
All the opposition could say was that it was “not giving a blank cheque” to Johnston;…
Consider domestic violence, which kills dozens of women and children a year (and which is every bit as ideologically driven as terrorism)….
conservative politicians use national security as a wedge issue …
The only way out of this self-reinforcing system of Stupid, ultimately, is to break it by ending the unrepresentative dominance of people like me in the political class, and replacing us with people more representative of the lived experience of Australians]
And, just to riff off BK’s mention of the terrorism of DV, here is a link to First Dog’s excellent cartoon that should have been a ‘light on the hill’ for more.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/sep/05/tony-abbott-domestic-violence
Windhover
I do not think I agree with you. Alberici mishandled the interview and if anything gave aid to the enemy, since by so badly managing the interview many Sunnis might be more inclined to sign on to terror than they were before.
Now do not get me wrong. i have no time whatever for that particular brand of Sunni extremism, any more than I do for the Spanish Inquisition, but such a blatantly biased and unprofessional interview should never have happened.
Now Red Kerry or even Tony Jones would have asked the question, allowed the guy to waffle, repeated the question in a slightly different way, and if he waffled would have simply stated “I assume then that you will not condemn the barbaric acts of ISIL” and then moved to another question. In other words cut the ground from under the guy’s feet without making him look to be persecuted.
If you think cost of living is not an issue then you have to disregard the whole petrol price adds to cost of everything argument. As well as the argument Abbott used about the carbon tax.
I thought the Alberici interview was appalling.
Right from the get go she was talking over the guest and did not listen to what he was saying.
Emma you are better than that!
Display
If you have no job the price of televisions or even petrol is minor. The problems are the giant costs over which the federals have no control – rent, electricity, public transport and food.
Medicare, dental costs and banking charges emerge too but these can be addressed without the “cost of living tag”
Hmmm. I don’t think I’d want Tony in my team.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-backs-lateline-host-emma-alberici-over-fiery-hizb-uttahrir-interview-20141009-113fxd.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
Guytaur
Of course cost of living is an issue. However it is a bit like discussing the importance of head lice control in the midst of an Ebola epidemic. Employment is the biggie. it will dwarf everything else.
Billy should be yelling jobs, jobs, jobs, manufacturing,jobs, submarines, jobs, jobs, 457 Visas, jobs, outsourcing, jobs, jobs, even dare I say the swear word Tariffs.
Dtt
If you are on Newstart the cost of living exceeds your income. Known as the poverty line.
A six month cut to your income means cost of living makes you homeless.
DTT
Having said all that where are the swinging voters? In the unemployment queue?
If that Lateline interview last night had any benefit it was just to confirm what we already know that there are people out there who justify the type of behaviour being carried out by ISIS and think the West are a bunch of evil despots. Other than that it was a truely bad interview and a waste of the ABC’s time as it was always going to go the way it did.
[Australian Super Hornet drops two bombs on Islamic State targets http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-09/australian-super-hornet-drops-two-bombs-on-is-targets/5800764 … via @ABCNews Let the chest beating begin!]
dtt
[Zoomster
Agree with Bemused. What possible electoral impact will “cost of living” have. it is not even as if the government is responsible for cost of living changes. ]
Er, what?
I suggest you address that post to the person who made the comment, not to me.
“Australian Super Hornet drops two bombs on Islamic State targets”
Angry camels wave their humps in defiance.
dtt, I would suggest that both CoL and employment are related issues that complement each other.
Sustainable Future and Player 1
[william, how do you get 50:50 from a set of data that all has the split 49.5:50.5 or higher in labor’s favour? I’m not saying it’s wrong, and certainly trend data suggests the xeonphobic and military push by LNP and the Murdoch propaganda unit has again proven that australian swinging voters are not too bright and at heart an ugly bunch of racists. I just wonder how that data gets you to 50:50 and not 49.5:50.5.]
What you say is correct if all of the data had a split 49.5:50.5 to the ALP. If you look closely at the BludgerTrack chart there are some very recent blue points with 2PP > 50. This presumably correspond to some recent polls with the LNP ahead…I don’t recall seeing these though.
[lizzie
Posted Thursday, October 9, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink
Australian Super Hornet drops two bombs on Islamic State targets
]
Please; it’s ordinance delivery.
I would also suggest that “fairness” is also related and complementary to both.
If the interviewee said that all killings were abhorrent then he has answered the question ‘yes’ that Isis beheadings are abhorrent – but without falling for the stupid questions patently false premise that somehow Isis beheadings are worse than say Iran or Texas or China executing an innocent person or an Australian plane accidentally dropping a bomb on an innocent Kurd family (hasn’t happened yet but is inevitable really).
So the interviewer could not say ‘you won’t condemn Isis beheadings’ because the answer is ‘yes you prat I just did’. Having been outsmarted she had to be honest and state explicitly that the question isn’t whether or not Isis beheadings are abhorrent but whether they are a special super evil form of killing that is much worse than other good types of killing like dropping a bomb on a wedding party of innocent people – simple good collateral damage.
The answer to that question would be interesting. Clearly Emma wasn’t as smart as her interviewee. For the record ‘yes’ ‘no’ answers are pathetic and she should be sacked for asking a question she wanted a yes no answer to in the first place
Windhover
I’m not going all ‘raa, raa, the guy was right” but criticising Alberici’s style, which appeared to be ‘stick to the script I’ve got in front of me and answer the way I expect you to.”
The best way to expose idiots/extremists etc is not to try and reduce them to yes/no answers, but to give them scope.
Jacqui Lambie and Pauline Hansen are best exposed by avoiding yes/no questions but by letting them rip. A good interviewer will nudge them in directions which will see them elucidate their answers.
Alberici got bogged down by insisting on a yes/no answer. She would have been better letting the guy rip, and thus exposing his agenda (if that was what was needed).
Good interviewers let interviewees dig their own pits. They don’t prepare one beforehand and then expect the interviewee to jump on the spikes.
DisplayName@86
“Fairness” is something most will claim to believe in and is a great general theme around which to build a campaign based on particular manifestations of ‘fairness’.
[william, how do you get 50:50]
William explained it all above. PB uses primary results rather than 2PP and then William’s model provides for any estimates bias. William may be wrong but that is how he does it.
dtt
[Billy should be yelling jobs, jobs, jobs, manufacturing,jobs, submarines, jobs, jobs, 457 Visas, jobs, outsourcing, jobs, jobs, even dare I say the swear word Tariffs.]
Pre budget, jobs, jobs, jobs was precisely what Shorten was yelling – and posters here criticised him for being too narrow in his focus.
fredex
[and replacing us with people more representative of the lived experience of Australians..]
Like Jacqui Lambie and Ricky Muir.
Guytaur
I am no disagreeing with you, it is just that Zoomster et al were waxing lyrical about how the ALP is going to bounce back with “cost of living” rhetoric.
I just do not think it is the political topic of the moment. All I am really saying is that Bill Shorten needs to be truly passionate about something BIG and cost of living is a damp lettuce. If you want to run “cost of living” latch on to a bogey man cause of cost of living increase and run with that. Banks, landlords, electricity and gas suppliers, take your pick but come out swinging. However I think that the issue right now is dwarfed by the jobs security stuff.
Ten minutes ago my pool guy left the house. He is about 53, formerly working in IT for the Brisbane City Council, who have now much to my amazemen
DavidWH
[If that Lateline interview last night had any benefit it was just to confirm what we already know that there are people out there who justify the type of behaviour being carried out by ISIS and think the West are a bunch of evil despots. Other than that it was a truely bad interview and a waste of the ABC’s time as it was always going to go the way it did.]
I don’t think the West are a bunch of evil despots. I do think the West has been pretty happy to prop up evil despots if it was required to keep the oil flowing cheaply.
I think the West is right to oppose ISIS militarily as they are clearly a barbaric outfit.
I also think the West should reflect on its previous unprincipled interventions in the ME and the possibility that these interventions have led to the emergence of groups like ISIS.
dtt
[Zoomster et al were waxing lyrical about how the ALP is going to bounce back with “cost of living” rhetoric. ]
I repeat – I never made that comment.
Seriously.
Guytaur
Sorry accidentally posted before finishing
Ten minutes ago my pool guy left the house. He is about 53, formerly working in IT for the Brisbane City Council, who have now much to my amazement outsources all their IT work to Mumbai. The few who do work in Australia are here on 457 Visas.
This is the big issue. Outsourcing of skilled jobs overseas. This is what labor needs to be screaming about.
Zoomster
I would not have been critising him. I do not think Bill does passion well. He should be sending out Doogie or Kim Carr for this task.
[I am resigned to another 5 years of Abbott. Hopefully to public will use the senate to keep a rein on Abbott and co.]
a senate that keeps abbott in check will keep him their longer. the failure of the government to get harsh budget measures, their bigot protection legislation, pension and school bonus cuts, RET repeal and the farcical inDirect inAction bills, etc through has helped them recover in the polls. had they not had the senate to save them from themselves, they’d be polling south of 45 TPP.
I stand by my vic election predictions – on redistributions, napthine has a few marginals, and I don’t sense people are angry with him or inspired by labor. they’ll go status quo unless the ALP can link napthine to abbott. they need to use the term ‘Abbott-napthine agenda” – and “napthine-pyne education plan” at every opportunity. (note that prissy has been the quietest in the media he has EVER been – their internal polling must being telling them to keep him away from media while the government is trying to look macho – prissy’ll hate being out of the spot light, as well as not having media ops with young men in uniform and tones being all manly).
[Shadow Assistant Treasurer @ALeighMP says ABS turbulence comes from Treasurer’s neglect: https://www.scribd.com/doc/242349676/Andrew-Leigh-Mp … #auspol ]
Septemeber unemployment at 6.1%, if I heard correctly.
Full-time employment increased by 21,600 in September, but part-time employment fell by 51,300.