The Australian has published its regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by (mainland) state, gender and age group, from its combined polling over the period of July to September. With this big infusion of state-level data, later this week I will publish the BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown, featuring state-level primary vote numbers and polling trend charts (you can see the previous effort from the end of June here). Also later today should be the regularly weekly Essential Research poll.
In case you missed it, yesterday’s Roy Morgan gave the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was down from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the 2013 election. The Greens were steady at 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.
UPDATE (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research – Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 4%, two-party 52-48 to Labor. A suite of questions on major government decisions over the past year turn in predictable responses, with turning back the boats, freezing foreign aid and dumping the carbon tax strongly approved of, and pretty much anything involving the budget disapproved of. The only neutral responses were for military aid to Iraq and dumping the mining tax. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated the economy well managed, against 28% for poorly. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living issues, and least concerned about national debt and the budget deficit. Other questions find an even balance between those who think income tax too high (42%) and about right (40%); more favouring less services and lower taxes (28%) than the opposite (19%), but with 35% preferring the current balance; and 59% thinking it would be good for the economy if corporations paid more tax, versus 17% for bad.
Moses likely a member of the Tea Party?
BB
I don’t think Paul Barry is the worst of the poor lot of journos we have here.
It is the likes of Latika and other softies who only look as far as what their eyes can see who have left it a little late to notice the threat to their press freedom.
guytaur
[Pup is unknown except for public statements supporting RET retention., but Labor throwing in the towel will make certain defeat.]
PUP has (some) power in the Senate. At most, this means he can have a repeal of the RET knocked back, which will create exactly the kind of uncertainty the renewable energy sector says it doesn’t want.
So a PUP no vote, assuming it prevents the repeal of the RET, will still effectively kill it off, because the legislation being in limbo will deter investment (please read the articles I linked to to see what’s happening).
Neither Labor or PUP have control of the HoR. Thus the only way they can influence legislation coming from the HoR is by doing deals.
Labor can dig in its heels and refuse to negotiate on the RET, in which case the government will do what it wants to do and put in legislation to repeal it.
Or Labor can do a deal with the government to make amendment to the RET, which (while watering down targets very slightly) will mean the RET has bipartisan support and will give investors the confidence they need to continue investment in the industry.
By ‘caving’ Labor can save the RET by giving investors the certainty THEY are saying they need to continue.
Of course, if you want to organise crowd funding for renewable energy, rather than relying on those investors, go for it. You might be able to raise enough money to buy a few hundred of those toy windmills…
guytaur
on the security laws: What Labor has passed has been basically what Labor was proposing since 2012. So (i) yes, the media has left it far too late to whinge and (ii) no, Labor probably wouldn’t have ‘watered down’ much at all.
I do note that all the hand wringing is about the possibility that journalists who do not take into account the consequence of their actions might actually be made to answer for that. There’s not much about the PROPOSED legislation – the requirement to keep meta data longer, declaring some foreign destinations to be ‘no go’ areas, and so on – at all.
Are the media going to whinge about these laws AFTER they’re passed, or don’t they care about them because they don’t impact on their profession?
zoomter
I look forward to you arguing this way when Labor compromises on Universal Medical Care.
It will be fun. The tactical process of negotiating in the Senate is the same. There is no reason for Labor to cave on this.
Just as there is no reason for Labor to cave on universal medical care. Labor does too much compromise which turns out to be defeat.
You cannot expect PUP to stand with Labor and the Greens when Labor will not stand
zoomster
Watch last night’s media watch. Take note of Professor Williams who is not a journalist and who did say the same before bills went through parliament.
The ALP will struggle to win due to the fact it is unable to produce or maintain a narrative.
The only reason they’re in front in the polls is due to the chaotic functioning of the Govt (Geoff Shaw saga).
The exact same situation exists federally.
Bill Shortens ALP is bereft of inspiration. Cannot produce or maintain a narrative or dictate the conversation.
Lame ducks.
I agree. If the MSM had been outraged before the bill passed Labor might have had political room to move to stop the draconian
Too late for the Telecrap to get the photoshoppers working now.
Rex
Shorten has a narrative as does Labor. Which yu will see between the terror and war porn.
I think that Labor has the economic narrative by the scruff of the neck and their message is getting through because the LNP is too busy doing fear on law and order front
Geesh, Rex – and the Victorian Liberals have a killer narrative? (As I pointed out, they didn’t win the last election on that basis, but by being Labor plus).
When Shorten was banging on about jobs, jobs, jobs, I remember posters here criticising him for being too focussed on one issue.
guytaur
as I’ve said to you before, I don’t need to listen to other people to form an opinion. I don’t need to outsource my thinking.
These laws were first mooted by Labor in 2012. A committee of Senate and HoR reps discussed them and released recommendations earlier this year. There’s been plenty of time for the media to whinge about them.
There’s also been no particular reason for Labor to ‘water down’ provisions that they basically introduced. (They did make some changes, btw).
The media is only crying about these laws now because it affects THEM. The laws which affect US they don’t seem to give much of a toss about.
guytaur and zoomster
From a non-partisan, non-engaged, swinging voter perspective the ALP are inspiration-less.
Oh look! Another one of the Government’s idiotic ideological prejudices masquerading as a policy idea has fallen over, after a nasty encounter with the real world:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-abandons-plan-to-make-job-seekers-apply-for-40-jobs-a-month-20141007-10r46j.html
zoomster
Not listening to others. How to live in a cone of silence.
Rex
My experience of swinging voters is that they’re not after inspiration. They usually seem more concerned with what’s in it for them when making a final decision.
lefty e
You have got it wrong – Abbott says it is “re-defining”!
guytaur
and gosh, my cone of silence apparently means I’m better able to argue my case than you are to counter it.
If you can’t back your position with arguments, but rely on ‘read this tweet’ or ‘listen to this guy’, that suggests you don’t understand the issue well enough to have an informed opinion.
Daniel Andrews will be the next premier of VIC, and it wont even be particularly close.
He’s got a good narrative on level crossings, 24 hr public transport, taking the unpopular E-W link to a vote, and moving on from the chaos of the entire Bailieu-Napthine-Shaw fiasco.
Its the government that is struggling to define what its about, despite a criminal assault on the state treasury to promote the LNP.
Rex
Kevin Rudd and John Howard had something in common. They could connect directly with voters. That is voters saw them addressing their concerns.
When Paul Keating lost it was not the vision thing. It was the connect with voters.
In all cases a drip drip drip approach to reach voters who only see politics as background and focus the week or even day of the election.
Shorten is doing that
guytaur
I think you should go to the naughty corner for a while you just aren’t as smart as Zoomster thinks she is.
zoomster
Yeah quoting experts in their field is so outsourcing.
Victorian government in full steak knives mode.
Yesterday, Andrews launched a $100 million plan to create 100,000 jobs in Victoria.
Today, Napthine has announced a $33 billion plan to create 200,000 jobs…
Labor is obviously more efficient, though…
Uh Oh North and South Korea have been firing at each other no injuries reported yet.
guytaur
If you were quoting them, at least you’d be showing some understanding. Saying ‘listen to this guy’ isn’t.
zoomster
Its not like I started today. I just point you to experts because then maybe you will pay attention. Something you did not do when I was telling you things.
I hope you did notice what I said about the media at the beginning of this. It does seem we are on the same page as far as the media role goes.
[Premier Denis Napthine today outlined Victorian Jobs in the 21st Century, a $33 billion initiative to create 200,000 jobs and provide training for nearly 1 million Victorians.]
http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/11183-33-billion-plan-to-create-21st-century-jobs-and-a-skilled-economy.html
Apparently an earlier version had ‘nearly 1 billion’ — obviously someone in the Premier’s office comes from the Barnaby Joyce school of Mathematics.
[Abbott government abandons plan to make job seekers apply for 40 jobs a month]
Damn! There goes the iPhone app I was developing so that the 40 application could be made with a single tap of the screen from the comfort of your sofa whilst pulling a few cones.
I even had a 3 word slogan for it ‘Job-App-Tap’.
There is no room for ingenuity in this country.
mh
Its now 20 so not all lost 🙂
guytaur
20 was what it has been for yonks.
[
Rex Douglas
Posted Tuesday, October 7, 2014 at 1:14 pm | Permalink
guytaur and zoomster
From a non-partisan, non-engaged, swinging voter perspective the ALP are inspiration-less.
]
Oh less see: Last federal govermnet.
1) A price on carbon.
2) Renewable energy target.
2) Broadband.
3) NAtional disability scheme.
4) Gonsky.
All of which the Abbott government is trying to detroy.
I’d say your problem is a short attention span.
lefty e@168
I’m not the biggest fan of Vic Labor, but I really hope this is the case. With the MSM fighting for the Coalition, you can’t be too sure where this might be heading.
Again yesterday at about 7.10 to 7.15, Napthine said “we fixed Labor’s mess” as “Premier of Victoria”. I wonder if we’ll see the same ad aired again tonight. Nobody has even asked the question on who’s paying for this.
mikehilliard@177
Don’t give up the code yet. They’ve only reduced it to pushing for 20 applications a month.
[
zoomster
Posted Tuesday, October 7, 2014 at 1:38 pm | Permalink
..
Apparently an earlier version had ‘nearly 1 billion’ — obviously someone in the Premier’s office comes from the Barnaby Joyce school of Mathematics.
]
And this from the man that has done his best to destoy the Victorian TAFE system.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/tafe-cuts-leave-system-reeling-20120507-1y8oq.html
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/tafe-funding-in-crisis-20140407-3696n.html
zoomster@176
Not to mention the big difference between “creating jobs” and “keeping jobs”.
We should be asking what the net number of jobs is.
Tudge defending the treatment a familly who are claiming that:
(1) No one was arrested.
(2) They have been told nothing.
(3) The mother was dragged out of bed with the bedsheets being dragged off her and allegedly punched.
(4) The backyard was dug up
(5) The federales spent some time ‘tossing’ the house.
(I assume that this was part of the process in which 800 officers did a mass event which may or may not have resulted in as many as two arrests. Who really knows? Under the legislation no-one has to say anything to anyone about this stuff and the arrestees are not allowed to say anything to anyone about it either.)
When asked, Tudge says the people who did the alleged stuff are doing ‘a tremendous job’.
Right.
I assume that there is a concerted caimpaign by the Abbott Government to ensure that every last muslim in Australia is filled with fear and loathing of the state organs of law enforcement and of their political masters.
It should work, no?
It’s an interesting question, though – should government be about inspiration? Or should it be about governance – which often isn’t inspiring at all.
Working methodically through issues, taking expert advice, consulting with the community etc is nowhere near as inspiring as saying “This is my vision for the future! Vote for me and I will do this!” but it results in better outcomes.
mike hilliard
You are w-a-y too late on that one:
Dole Bludger app
[
Raaraa
Posted Tuesday, October 7, 2014 at 1:49 pm | Permalink
…..
Again yesterday at about 7.10 to 7.15, Napthine said “we fixed Labor’s mess” as “Premier of Victoria”. I wonder if we’ll see the same ad aired again tonight. Nobody has even asked the question on who’s paying for this.
]
Has anyone asked what exactly was Labor’s mess?
A TAFE system that worked pehaps?
It should work, no
dead cert
John Howard’s government was never about inspiration. Most people saw it as solid and sensible, maybe even a bit boring. But it by and large didn’t frighten the horses. That, plus a spot of dogwhistling got them over the line in four successive elections. A bit before my time but I gather that Menzies was similar.
Essential no change. Missing the Burqa Bounce evident in Murdoch organs…
ALP 52 LNP 48
http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/10/07/essential-voters-harden-their-hearts-on-the-budget/ (paywalled)
http://essentialvision.com.au/decisions-made-in-the-budget-2-by-voting-intention
Glad to hear Essential pushing on the budget questions.
frednk@188
Exactly. Didn’t Brumby end his term with the budget being in pretty good shape in contrast with the other states?
However, the government’s overall support has remained the same, with the Coalition’s primary vote on 40% and Labor’s on 39%; the Greens remain on 10% and the Palmer United Party on 4% for the same two-party preferred outcome, 52%-48% to Labor.
Boerwar
[I assume that there is a concerted campaign by the Abbott Government to ensure that every last muslim in Australia is filled with fear and loathing of the state organs of law enforcement and of their political masters.
It should work, no]
Reading the story it read almost exactly like the stuff the late Saleem Shahzad was reporting from Afghanistan in the early years after the invasion. He noted that such raids, again largely fruitless, played a large part in the people turning against the allies and give support to the then down and out Taliban. Can’t say it will win any hearts and minds here either.
Zoom
[esterday, Andrews launched a ]
I don’t think he’s going to make it.
Insipid.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/10/07/postcard-from-young-the-muslim-capital-of-the-outback/
[“It’s so misleading and inaccurate it’s not worth the paper it’s written on.”]
Essential
[Q. Do you think that sending military forces to Iraq will make Australia more or less safe from the threat of terrorism?]
More safe 15%
Less safe 51%
Steve777
A big meme back in 1995/6 amongst Murdoch Meeja was the nation was suffering from “reform fatigue” after all that reform from Hawke/Keating. Apparently we were in need of a bit of a break. So no surprise the Rodent was telling us his desire that we be…….
[ relaxed about the present; and I’d also like to see them comfortable and relaxed about the future]
Does being “relaxed” means just leave it in his hands and he will handle it and decide what’s best for us?