BludgerTrack makes a fairly solid move to the Coalition this week on the back of relatively strong results for them in Newspoll and ReachTEL, to the extent that they are now ahead of Labor on the national seat projection, without going so far as to make it to a majority. Labor retains the lead on two-party preferred, but the model grants the Coalition a natural advantage in seat allocation because the decisive marginal seats will be defended by its first-term members. The change returns the two-party vote to where it was three weeks ago, before a 1.2% spike to Labor the following week. However, Labor has gone two seats backwards on the seat projection since then, because of changes in the way the votes are distributed between the states. The Coalition primary vote gain comes off the total for the Greens, which had experienced a spike over the previous fortnight, while Labor’s is essentially unchanged. Three new sets of state-level data were available to the model out of the four polls which published this week, which have caused Labor to drop two seats in Queensland and Tasmania, and one in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.
Some will be asking how Labor’s two-party vote comes to be at 50.9% when no published result has put it below 51%, for which much of the explanation lies in Newspoll’s rounded two-party numbers this week. As Kevin Bonham observes, the 51-49 result had poll watchers scratching their heads, as a crude application of 2013 preference flows to the published primary votes (Labor 34%, Coalition 41% and Greens 11% and 14% others) puts the Coalition slightly above 50-50. I don’t doubt that Newspoll has done its rounding properly – the result could be explained by primary vote rounding, minor party vote shares and the poll’s internal distribution of state results – but there can be little doubt that Labor was rounded upwards. Then there was Thursday’s 51-49 result from ReachTEL, a large sample poll with a good track record that the model takes seriously, but which is corrected for a slight Labor bias. The model grants Essential and Morgan together about as much weight as a single Newspoll or ReachTEL, and they had much the same results as each other after the fairly considerable Labor bias adjustment for Morgan. So the aggregate this week can roughly be seen as combining a 50-50, a 51-49 and a 52-48.
Newspoll provided a new set of results for the leadership ratings, which have unfortunately come to be dominated by the pollster since Nielsen dropped out of the game. As such, this week’s moves reflect Tony Abbott’s stronger performance in Newspoll, suggesting a second shift in his favour to supplement the one which occurred after MH17. He also widens his lead as preferred prime minister, although Bill Shorten’s net approval rating remains stable and fairly respectable, and solidly higher than Abbott’s.
bemused:
Either I am a nice person, or you are calling my mother a liar :devil:
Mad Lib@1049
Oh yes they are your lot.
Don’t try your usual weasel words and slippery tactics to escape that.
Yes, you and confessions are on a unity ticket there. But to tell the truth, I don’t even think she was aware of what she endorsed.
[bemused
…Oh yes they are your lot.]
Bzzt. wRONg
[Don’t try your usual weasel words and slippery tactics to escape that.]
Bzzt. wRONg again
How are you tonight 007?
Mad Lib@1051
So your mother’s a liar. It’s hereditary.
I would respond to that davidwh, but I can in no way imply, nor ignore, the insinuation that I may, or may not be, or not be, a spy or not a spy.
Ergo, I do not respond.
Everything@1053
Your buzzer is malfunctioning.
Well I am glad I am adopted then…
bemused
[I love a good cat fight!]
Hyuk Hyuk
You have no awareness of your innate sexism, do you.
That’s not a question.
Mad Lib@1056
So what’s new?
bemused:
In a battle of wits, the unarmed usually sit it out.
Well hi in any case 🙂
It’s been an interesting day today. The ASIO powers certainly have got folks hearts racing.
Mad Lib@1061
Go ahead. Sit it out.
davidwh@1062
The dreaded thought police have always been able to screw people over. What’s new?
That was a bizarre case about that sailor who claimed to be attacked by ‘men of middle eastrern appearance’ and then withdrew the allegations, apparently under a cloud. And that something like this created national headlines and required an apology from the chief of the Australian Defence Forces is a worry.
And all the other crap going on. 800 police to arrest 15 suspects. Muslims being harassed. A man walks into a school with a knife.
And these draconian laws – did the UK pass anything similar during the decades of IRA threats and attacks?
Abbott is to far too keen to join a war and overreacting with domestic legislation but is on this occasion not dogwhistling. He is trying to trying urge that no group in the community should be singled out. Of course others like Bernardi, Lambie and George Brandis are just idiots and we shouldn’t pay them any attention.
In any case Daesh is real of course. Grownups in charge can deal with them, without changing the country. Just heard the headline on the ABC ‘Australia is in a Climate of Fear’. I suppose the headline on the Telecrap is probably “Wah! ! We’re all going to die! Abbott will save us”
Why is everyone so afraid? If we’re scared, Daesh wins. I don’t like the way things are going and that’s not because I’m worrying about being beheaded or blown up.
To be honest I haven’t noticed people being scared. I walked around West End and there were the usual variety of people going about their normal activities. Personally I think it’s more in the media than real life. We just have a few idiots using this as an excuse to overtly display prejudices.
Goodness, Lateline has promoted the Sailor to an Officer again.
Get your story straight guys. He is a Sailor, and obviously not a very bright one.
davidwh@1066
Yep! I had a normal conversation with a gent of ‘Middle Eastern appearance’ this morning while handing out campaign literature. No-one else was panicking and avoiding him.
The effect on me is I will go out of my way to smile and engage with people of such appearance and be prepared to step in if any goon threatens or harasses them.
We should always remember that BOTH Jesus and the prophet Mohammed were men of middle eastern appearance.
Mad Lib@1069
What are you doing here?
You excused yourself @1061.
Jesus is a recognised as a prophet in Islam, but not the Messiah.
Christianity and Islam are merely derivatives of Judaism.
So why do they squabble?
I say that as an objective observer as I don’t believe in any of them.
Steve777
And these draconian laws – did the UK pass anything similar during the decades of IRA threats and attacks?
I don’t know about the Uk but the Irish Republic passed significsnt anti-terrorist laws on a number of occassions, resulting in a number of political crises. In one the President was forced to resign when he tried to delay the passage of one particularly nasty infringement of civil rights.
As for Stormint – well of course Westminster assumed control of the province after its attempt at internment without trial failed. I read somewhere that at one stage 5% of catholic men were being held without charge. As the song goes
“not for them a trial or jury
Nor indeed a crime at all
Being Irish means your guilty,
so we’re guilty one and all
Around the world the truth will echo
Cromwell’s men are here again”
The original Israelites, as opposed to Europeans and others who adopted Judaism, are genetically the same as Palestinians.
So why don’t they unite to chuck those European converts out of their ancestral homeland?
Yes, I think that there’s a lot of media hype and a few idiots are reacting to it and their reactions are then being hyped up.
The media are the ones whipping up the hysteria at the moment rather than the “regime”, as Fran puts it.
Look at Fairfax’s appalling tabloid treatment of the 18 year old terror suspect — in the orgasm of excitement over the “scary story”, they stole the wrong Facebook picture to publish on their dispacable front pages.
And then look at the ABC and others falling over themselves to report on the allegation of that “officer” (or is it sailor now?) being assaulted by some random “Middle Eastern” men. The notion of the allegation was just too exciting for them to even consider whether it made any sense or had any veracity. A few enquiries with the ADF before screaming to publish might have helped here.
For all the faults of the “regime”, the hysteria is almost exclusively the making of our shitty press.
In terms of the new terror laws, even former Minister Bob Carr was lamenting the lack of powers to prevent Australian fighters engaging in Syrian and other conflicts. Government has been grappling with this issue for some time now and much of the current bills being debated are the product of that long term consideration.
Look we have here the problem of people whose lives are at risk because they are under the delusion that Ali was the first Caliph.
Cambodia is a very safe place for them. The Cambodians are mainly Buddhist for all they care Fatima could have been the first Caliph
(This is satire, possibly in poor taste but still satire)
After a 14 years of Labor cotrol the Syd.Uni SRC has fallen to a Green -aligned indiginous candidate
________________________
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labors-grip-on-sydney-universitys-student-representative-council-ends-after-14-years-20140926-10mj3c.html
deblonay@1077
How unfortunate!
However, a display of looniness will see that person removed at the earliest opportunity. 😀
…Oakeshott C…..1076…I don’t know about satire,but it’s certainly in poor taste
Before the new laws come in I”d just like to say that Abbott is obviously a CIA plot to make President Bush look respectable
paaptsef@1080
Hmmmm… that certainly has the ring of plausibility.
I think you are onto something. 😀
Thanks Kev 😉
[So why don’t they unite to chuck those European converts out of their ancestral homeland?]
From a well-referenced Wikipedia article:
[Citing Autosomal DNA studies, Nicholas Wade estimates that “Ashkenazic and Sephardic Jews have roughly 30 percent European ancestry, with most of the rest from the Middle East.” He further noticed that “The two communities seem very similar to each other genetically, which is unexpected because they have been separated for so long.”]
I always thought that Tony Abbott was a lot like George W Bush except not as smart or as eloquent.
He’s also a bit like Vladimir Putin, especially all that Action Man stuff, but again not as smart.
William Bowe@1083
And the percentage of Middle Eastern ancestry of Palestinians is?
Pretty high, I should imagine. As well as that though, your insinuation that Ashkenazic and Sephardic Jews are “Europeans who adopted Judaism” is an anti-Semitic calumny.
William Bowe@1086
I never said that.
They certainly diluted their ancestry with a fair amount of European DNA and also became culturally removed from the Middle East.
I am of predominantly English ancestry with a bit of Irish.
I make no claim to either place being my ancestral homeland given to me by God and therefore rightfully mine.
[They certainly diluted their ancestry with a fair amount of European DNA and also became culturally removed from the Middle East.]
Which is rather a different thing from “converting”. If Andrew Bolt’s slipshod appraisal of the facts concerning certain individuals got him tripped up over 18C, it would be pretty hard to see how your own effort in relation to an entire ethnic identity would fare any better.
William Bowe@1088
Those they married converted to Judaism. I would expect very few would have converted otherwise.
Their Jewish ancestors left the Middle East, just as my ancestors left the British isles.
I have no right to return to the British Isles, along with a whole bunch of others of similar background, and disposes the current inhabitants. My ancestors made choices, or had them forced on them, and I bear the consequences, for better or worse.
Goodnight William. Your time zone gives you a couple of hours advantage. 🙂
bemused@1090
The extra few dozen IQ points helps as well.
It would seem to me then that your premise is about 30% true, the rest being distortion and exaggeration. I have no doubt though that others who would be “reasonably likely, in all the circumstances” to take offence at your comment — and there would be no shortage of them — would mount a pretty fierce argument against even that much of a concession. Who would win, I wonder, if it came before the commission?
LOL! Witness the embarrassing farce that was Morriscum s Cambodia announcement: http://m.theage.com.au/comment/refugee-deal-triggers-awkward-moment-for-scott-morrison-in-cambodia-20140926-10mux0.html
[1087
bemused
William Bowe@1086
Pretty high, I should imagine. As well as that though, your insinuation that Ashkenazic and Sephardic Jews are “Europeans who adopted Judaism” is an anti-Semitic calumny.
They certainly diluted their ancestry with a fair amount of European DNA and also became culturally removed from the Middle East.]
What is the point of this observation? Are you trying to assert that Jews are not really Jews? What is the point of such a claim? It seems to be qualitatively similar to Bolt’s (racially offensive) assertion that Eatock et al are not “real” aborigines.
I’m a big fan of Laurie Oakes, and today’s column on press freedom is up to his usual standards. But:
[The Government should be pushed to frame anti-terrorism laws in a way that minimises the infringement on press freedom.]
There’s that passive voice so beloved of Bushfire Bill. Should be pushed by whom? I’m pretty confident that he means, but knows he cannot say, the very papers he’s writing the column for. Who, as Mark Colvin noted today, had a fair bit to say about such matters not so very long ago.
briefly
[What is the point of this observation?]
I doubt there is a point to it.
UK:
[MPs’ Iraq vote: Commons passes vote by massive majority to include Britain in Isis strikes]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-iraq-vote-commons-passes-vote-by-massive-majority-to-include-britain-in-isis-strikes-9758454.html
Here we go again.
New thread.
[Greens give the Libs a free pass on government borrowing]
The Greens didn’t give “a free pass on government borrowing”.
*Along with Paul Keating* the Greens supported removing the debt cap. Is Paul Keating an enemy of Labor?
Government borrowing still needs legislative approval. The inability of (some) Laborists to be able to describe things accurately shows the strength of their arguments.
So Tony Abbott did have some real business in NY after all.
To get a pat on the head, and receive more instructions.
[PHILLIP COOREY
Tony Abbott has made time in his busy schedule at the United Nations in New York to dine with media mogul Rupert Murdoch, chairman of Twenty-First Century Fox and News Corp.
The Prime Minister, once an employee of News Corp, and Mr Murdoch met on Thursday night. The pair also had dinner when the Prime Minister was last in New York, in June. Mr Abbott’s office declined to divulge where the pair dined this time.
]
http://zite.to/1utmgTY