BludgerTrack makes a fairly solid move to the Coalition this week on the back of relatively strong results for them in Newspoll and ReachTEL, to the extent that they are now ahead of Labor on the national seat projection, without going so far as to make it to a majority. Labor retains the lead on two-party preferred, but the model grants the Coalition a natural advantage in seat allocation because the decisive marginal seats will be defended by its first-term members. The change returns the two-party vote to where it was three weeks ago, before a 1.2% spike to Labor the following week. However, Labor has gone two seats backwards on the seat projection since then, because of changes in the way the votes are distributed between the states. The Coalition primary vote gain comes off the total for the Greens, which had experienced a spike over the previous fortnight, while Labor’s is essentially unchanged. Three new sets of state-level data were available to the model out of the four polls which published this week, which have caused Labor to drop two seats in Queensland and Tasmania, and one in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.
Some will be asking how Labor’s two-party vote comes to be at 50.9% when no published result has put it below 51%, for which much of the explanation lies in Newspoll’s rounded two-party numbers this week. As Kevin Bonham observes, the 51-49 result had poll watchers scratching their heads, as a crude application of 2013 preference flows to the published primary votes (Labor 34%, Coalition 41% and Greens 11% and 14% others) puts the Coalition slightly above 50-50. I don’t doubt that Newspoll has done its rounding properly – the result could be explained by primary vote rounding, minor party vote shares and the poll’s internal distribution of state results – but there can be little doubt that Labor was rounded upwards. Then there was Thursday’s 51-49 result from ReachTEL, a large sample poll with a good track record that the model takes seriously, but which is corrected for a slight Labor bias. The model grants Essential and Morgan together about as much weight as a single Newspoll or ReachTEL, and they had much the same results as each other after the fairly considerable Labor bias adjustment for Morgan. So the aggregate this week can roughly be seen as combining a 50-50, a 51-49 and a 52-48.
Newspoll provided a new set of results for the leadership ratings, which have unfortunately come to be dominated by the pollster since Nielsen dropped out of the game. As such, this week’s moves reflect Tony Abbott’s stronger performance in Newspoll, suggesting a second shift in his favour to supplement the one which occurred after MH17. He also widens his lead as preferred prime minister, although Bill Shorten’s net approval rating remains stable and fairly respectable, and solidly higher than Abbott’s.
Briefly
I’ve always applauded your point of view, but to deliberately miss the point, every time, about legislating the ability of ASIO to manipulate metadata is beyond my comprehend (in why you would support the new restrictions on our freedom).
On the other hand,
I fail to understand why a pissy little local council, a la Alpine, would still have ex-councillors shivering in their boots, unable to reveal why they voted in a specific way, because they had to hide things from their electorate.
What the fuck has a local council got to hide from its wardship?
National security? I don’t think so.
briefly@1000
And yet they squeal when they are called out as an enemy of Labor.
What is really going on when the Australian Defence Force Chief has to personally intervene in the case of the Naval Officer (the description means he has rank) who was roughed up by two men of “middle-eastern appearance”?
Is this some sort of attempt to “pour oil on troubled waters”? Sorry about the pun – not intentional!
Briefly,
re 1001
after “freedom)” the rest is directed to zoomster.
deewhytony@1003
By the time I saw it covered on ABC news this evening, the “Officer” had been demoted to a “Sailor”.
The media are always referring to anyone in the military as an “Officer” irrespective of their rank. I think on this occasion the ADF must have been at pains to get it straight with the media.
kezza2@1004
I bet the answer is something like “commercial in confidence” or “privacy legislation”. 😀
kezza
actually, it’s worse than that – I once worked as a lowly field worker for the DSE and I had to sign a confidentiality agreement.
I do appreciate your ongoing interest in my every word, though.
zoomster
[I do appreciate your ongoing interest in my every word, though.]
Not in the slightest do I have any interest in your bemused-like replies.
However, I would like an explanation for your assertion that still-to-this-day you can’t give a reason for a decision you made on council due to “privelege” reasons.
It’s okay. You can tell me. And afterwards I will shoot you.
A curious result of the Scottish referrendum….
in 7 days, the SNP membership has risen from a bit over 25,000 members to 62,870 members (yesterdays figures), i.e. 1.5% of the Scottish population and makes it the third largest party in the whole UK, outdistancing the UK LibDems.
The Scottish Greens have had a 375% increase in membership in the last week. from about 2,000 members to over 6,000.
Last weeks Referrendum was only stage 1.
I predict the UK General Eletion in May next year is going to be a much needed decimation, or more, of the Labour Party and hopefully also puting the sad LibDems out of their misery.
Though as one Scots blogger said, we have to keep at least one unionist MP so we can still make Panda jokes.
Bemused @ 1003
Of course, an Officer and a Gentleman would not be guilty of being careless with the truth.
An Able Seaman, well maybe …..
This is happening despite our English PM saying, Scots are enemies of freedom!!!
Maybe next time Westminster will call on Abbott to harrow the Scots.
kezza
You might like an explanation, but I don’t see any reason why I should give you one.
deewhytony@1010
The interesting aspect to me is the rush to correct once it emerged as all BS.
In the modern services, some of the NCOs and even plain enlisted men (and women) are quite well educated. This has not always been the case and remains so in some ‘musterings’ or whatever the contemporary term is.
Hi kezza2, good to see you.
I do understand the arguments put forward in relation to metadata and I don’t believe concerns about this are trivial.
But I also think the use of murder as a political weapon is a much more serious issue than the risk that ASIO may misuse their powers. Webcast executions are intended to provoke sectarian violence in this community. They already have.
It would be a profound tragedy were such violence to gain a grip here, especially as the greatest losers from sectarian violence will be our minority communities – Muslims, Jews and other visible but small groups. We already have instances of physical and verbal abuse directed against women and children from these communities.
Violence in the Middle East and Afghanistan will not be resolved easily or quickly, and it is inevitable that we will feel the shock-waves for as long as the warring there persists.
I should add that I think we share responsibility for hatching the circumstances in which this violence has developed. But this hardly means we will be able to ignore the revolutionary violence in Western and Central Asia. Far from it. We are in fact more likely to be drawn into it for many years to come, much as we may wish it be otherwise.
Ahhh. Phewwwww!
Once again a flight has landed in Munich without so much as a blip on the radar.
My wings are tender.
[zoomster
Posted Friday, September 26, 2014 at 9:49 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
You might like an explanation, but I don’t see any reason why I should give you one.]
Of course not. I reckon you made that shit up. As if a stupid little council in Victoria would have secrecy about its decisions – that you, still, to this day, cannot reveal.
It’s either corruption or hubris. And a load of shit.
briefly
[But I also think the use of murder as a political weapon is a much more serious issue than the risk that ASIO may misuse their powers.]
Sorry, pal, I don’t agree with you. Espcecially after today’s revelation that the ADF chap WASN’T attacked by people of “Middle-Eastern” look!! Just made it up to make people like you want to give up freedom.
I think ASIO is wont to misuse its powers.
Especially since I’ve just examined my light globe.
kezza
Yeah, or just that I’ve held positions of real responsibility and you haven’t.
kezza2@1016
WOW! You don’t hold back Kezza. 😆
For that matter, there’s things I got to know as a political candidate, an electorate officer, a teacher, a member of the local hospital board, and in probably a few other capacities as well, that I’m legally not supposed to discuss with anyone.
When I was a DSE fieldworker, I was not allowed to tell anyone – even my husband – where I was working each day. That one was a bit absurd, as we got changed into our biohazard suits on the side of the road by a busy highway every day…
zoomster
[Yeah, or just that I’ve held positions of real responsibility and you haven’t.]
Oh, tell me again, why I shouldn’t know the decisions you councillors make on my behalf – you know, taking into account the stuff I shouldn’t ever know about.
What a load of tosh.
What is it? Sewage, drains, roads, jihadis?
Yeah, what is it that local people shouldn’t know from their local council representatives?
Or are you so damn important that we’re not allowed to know.
Lucky you can keep a secret. Perhaps we could call that a conspiracy? Hmmm.
I cannot confirm nor can I deny whether or not I am, or have ever been, a spy.
[zoomster
Posted Friday, September 26, 2014 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
For that matter, there’s things I got to know as a political candidate, an electorate officer, a teacher, a member of the local hospital board, and in probably a few other capacities as well, that I’m legally not supposed to discuss with anyone.]
Oooh, zoomster, the CIA agent.
Sorry, dear. Should never have asked you to expose the secrets of your professions.
Are you fucking serious? Really?
You decided to become a representative of the people to keep secrets from the people.
No wonder we’re pretty much disillusioned with politics.
Roll on MacDuff.
Greens attack Labor over the Libs new laws, Greens give the Libs a free pass on government borrowing, Greens attack Labors ETS, Greens offer support to the Libs direct action and PPL scams. The Greens are looking very much like an opportunistic political party with no concrete values.
paaptsef@1024
Well said.
briefly
On this occasion I find little of substance in your post @911 (how ironic!) with which I can agree.
Societies that respect their citizenry don’t spy on them without significant cause. Yes, we must do what we reasonably can to prevent violence, but ‘what we reasonably can’ must take account of the dignity of the citizens. Unless there are good grounds for thinking they may be committing indictable offences, or planning to do so we ought to be focusing our efforts on those who may be.
All of the acts of ‘terrorists’ that one would wish to restrain appear in our criminal law, and we have police whose job it is to gather evidence and where apt, to apprehend them and subject them to due process. These police have all the authority they need to do their job without unduly trampling on the privacy of citizens. Calling some set of acts ‘terror’ does not make the acts more dangerous than the same acts committed by non-terrorists.
The reality is that the vast majority of indictable offences are committed by people who are not under surveillance, even though there would probably have been good grounds in many cases for doing so. The reason for this is obvious: we lack the resources to do it, but objectively, you could get a lot more safety tracking perpetrators of domestic violence that putative terrorists.
Yet here we are with the regime threatening in theory to gaol journalists, tamper with computers and a raft of other things to prevent acts that will never claim as many lives as domestic violence, poor driving, or run of the mill street thuggery.
No member of the public here has been killed by a jihadi. The closest thing we’ve so far had is a guy shot dead after being under surveillance (under the old laws) for some months and some troubled Pacific Islander.threatening an Islamic school at Minto.
If we’re suddenly at much greater risk, let the regime explain that in detail. Until then I call this whole thing utterly bogus,
Mad Lib@1022
You needn’t worry.
I and others here are quite happy to tell you what you are.
kezza
chuckle. Yes, that’s right – being legally bound not to discuss certain things is something I can just put aside because you want me to. You naive little pumpkin.
“. . .that I’m legally not supposed to discuss with anyone”
This is beyond a joke.
You decide to represent the people, but you sign up to secrecy, to prevent the people from knowing.
Why would a person of integrity do that?
They wouldn’t.
It’s only people who want power who would sign up. Or those who want to change those provisions from the inside.
Sounds like you didn’t even try.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-26/queensland-mothers-murder-leads-to-domestic-abuse-case-rethink/5772572?section=qld
Meanwhile, back in the real Australia, women [and kids] die every week, more or less, as a result of domestic violence.
Or, as First Dog put it, quoting someone, ‘shit happens’.
[zoomster
Posted Friday, September 26, 2014 at 10:21 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
chuckle. Yes, that’s right – being legally bound not to discuss certain things is something I can just put aside because you want me to. You naive little pumpkin.]
Oh, how it must seem so amusing to you that people in a democracy want people of integrity in positions of power.
Okay, I get it. You have no integrity. And no wish to have it.
Chuckle, chuckle.
And so the pretence of importance lingers.
And the longer you keep the secret of the Alpine Shire, that the constituents must not know, the longer you are complicit in keeping those same constituents ignorant.
That’s your idea of democracy?
What’s so damn important in a shire, in a local government area, that has to be kept from the locals?
Are you able to answer that? Or are you just going to hide behind “legalities”?
Don’t you think the people of the ward who voted for you have a right to know what you’re keeping secret?
Today marks the first ever UN International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons(aka Nuclear Abolition Day.)
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN): http://www.icanw.org/
Shut up, Kezza.
kezza
Try this as a hypothetical: You have a problem with your neighbour undertaking illegal works. You don’t want bad relations with them, but the works they’re undertaking are impacting seriously on your life. You ask a councillor to act but also ask them to deal with the situation in such a way that your neighbour never knows or suspects that you were the person who alerted the council.
Do you really want that councillor – even years later – to go around telling people that you caused the problem for your neighbour?
William
I’ll shut up to. It’s bedtime, anyway.
Morrison’s Holiday in Cambodia descends into farce
[After inking the agreement that has provoked a storm of criticism, Mr Morrison stood and clinked champagne glasses with Cambodia’s Interior Minister Sar Kheng, as it became clear to journalists corralled behind rope barriers that neither intended to explain anything about the agreement or to answer questions.
“What about the $40 million pay-off (to Cambodia),” a journalist shouted.
Mr Morrison ignored growing heckling while pretending to toast a line of generals and unidentified VIPs on stage whose share of the bubbly had crashed to the floor.
Neither Mr Morrison nor Mr Sar Kheng said a word during their five minute appearance.
They walked out together, leaving Cambodian journalists gobsmacked.
Cambodian officials admitted when Mr Morrison’s convoy had returned to the luxurious Raffles Hotel Le Royal that Mr Sar Kheng had intended to hold a press conference to inform Cambodians about the agreement but called it off at the last moment, apparently at Australia’s request.
For months the Abbott government has refused to publicly reveal any detail about the agreement.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/refugee-deal-triggers-awkward-moment-for-scott-morrison-in-cambodia-20140926-10mux0.html#ixzz3EQNbX6CU
Bemused/Paapsepts
I am as ready to believe the Greens are or will be opportunistic – they are a political party but I am concerned that you lump those issues together as if they are of equal weight and ignore the principles;
[Greens attack Labor over the Libs new laws,]
So they bloody well should. Shame Labor Shame.
[ Greens give the Libs a free pass on government borrowing,]
There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with government borrowing. it is the purposes for which it is used that are important.
[ Greens attack Labors ETS,]
I will give you this one
[ Greens offer support to the Libs direct action]
While direct action will achieve little and be expensive it is not of itself a bad policy. The idea of clearing weeds etc is fine. There are some OHS issues that need to be addressed, but the principle is OK even if having a low priority. You would expect all Greens to support such initiatives.
[and PPL scams.]
This is a hard one because the principle that maternity leave is a workplace right is very good. I personally benefited from just such a scheme and it would be hypocritical of me to deny it to others. I imagine if there are teachers, nurses, public servants, academics etc amongst the greens they will also feel the same way.
[The Greens are looking very much like an opportunistic political party with no concrete values.]
I think based on the examples chosen you are hard pressed to make a case for opportunism.
Rendition of refugees to Cambodia is outrageous.
What next? Do we send North Korean asylum seekers to Syria and Syrian asylum seekers to North Korea?
[Phnom Penh: The behaviour of Australia’s Immigration Minister Scott Morrison in the Cambodian capital late on Friday was a diplomatic embarrassment.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/refugee-deal-triggers-awkward-moment-for-scott-morrison-in-cambodia-20140926-10mux0.html#ixzz3EQOgZmri
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/refugee-deal-triggers-awkward-moment-for-scott-morrison-in-cambodia-20140926-10mux0.html
William Bowe@1033
You are a killjoy William.
I was enjoying that little bout. 😆
ET
You may have the solution!! We can send Africans to Iraq, Iraqis to Korea, Cambodians to Africa and Afghanis to Cambodia.
[1026
Fran Barlow
briefly
On this occasion I find little of substance in your post @911 (how ironic!) with which I can agree.]
For some reason, I’m re-assured by this, Fran 🙂
Seriously, there is seldom any dignity in violent death or in communal revenge.
Spilt champers aint the source of the embarrassment…
Excuse me, William. I was away on a phone call with my kids in Europe.
Now, what was it? Shut up.
Yep, okay, free speech and all that.
bemused
There’s something seriously wrong with you. Get it checked out.
1017
kezza2
Time will tell I expect.
Mad Lib@1038
Well that’s your charming political gang!
You explain them, don’t ask us.
Mad Lib@1043
So you would have us believe you have a sense of shame?
It aint my lot…..however, it is your lot, as the ALP supports the same policy. Confessions supports rendition of refugees to Cambodia and zoomster supports rendition of refugees to Malaysia.
kezza2@1045
😆 I love a good cat fight!