Seat of the week: Fraser

The electorate covering northern Canberra has been a stronghold for Labor since the ACT was first divided into two seats in 1974, presently providing a home for Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created when the Australian Capital Territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974, Fraser covers the northern half of Canberra, with Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River forming its southern boundary. The southern half of Canberra, together with the non-residential remainder of the Australian Capital Territory, is accommodated by the electorate of Canberra. Whereas Canberra was held by the Liberals from 1975 to 1980 and again for a brief period after a 1995 by-election, Fraser has at all times been held by Labor. Andrew Leigh came to the seat at the 2010 election after the retirement of Bob McMullan, who had held it since a rearrangement caused when the ACT’s representation reverted back to two seats after briefly going to three between the elections of 1996 and 1998. This involved the displacement of Steve Darvagel, who had come to Fraser at a by-election in February 1997 caused by the retirement of John Langmore. McMullan’s vacancy in Canberra was filled by Annette Ellis, who had hitherto been the first and final member for the short-lived seat of Namadji.

When McMullan and Ellis both announced their impending retirements in early 2010, there were suggestions that they were pushed as much as jumped, in McMullan’s case because powerbrokers wished for his seat to go to Left faction nominee Nick Martin. However, the independence of the local branches was instead asserted during the complicated preselection struggles which followed in both seats. Suggestions of a factional arrangement were made to appear particularly distasteful by the strong fields of candidates which emerged, with Leigh joined in the race for Fraser by constitutional law maven George Williams, locally well-connected West Belconnen Health Co-operative chair Michael Pilbrow, and over half-a-dozen others. The Left membership voted down a deal to win backing for Martin by reciprocating support for Right candidate Mary Wood in Fraser, reportedly due to concern about that the Right was not united enough to make the deal stick, and also because it was felt the faction would be better off securing an arrangement with Gai Brodtmann, who had stitched together a cross-factional support base in pursuit of her own bid for Canberra. When the Right’s own candidates dropped out early in the counts, its support was thrown behind the ultimate winners, Leigh and Brodtmann, with Leigh prevailing in the final Fraser ballot by 144 votes to 96.

Leigh was professor of economics at the Australian National University immediately before entering politics, having earlier practised law in Sydney and London and gained a doctorate from Harvard University. A Julia Gillard loyalist, he gained the position of parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister in the shake-up that followed Kevin Rudd’s abortive leadership bid in March 2013, only to lose it when Rudd returned to the leadership at the end of June. Although factionally unaligned, he won promotion to the outer shadow ministry after the September 2013 election defeat as Assistant Shadow Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Seat of the week: Fraser”

Comments Page 13 of 14
1 … 12 13 14

  1. “@MikeCarlton01: Let me see. We’ve got Pyne and Ashby. Credlin and ICAC. And what else ? Good thing the adults are in charge…”

  3. [582
    daretotread

    These days production designs are done on the computer so it should be very easy to switch production from making parts for cars to parts for tanks. There are Robots and flexible production lines.]

    …except we soon won’t make anything automotive in this economy…hardly so much as a roof-rack or a tow-bar.

  4. 589

    The new Coalition government, the last 2 anyway, attack on the Canberra public service is for two reasons. Firstly there is ideology and the second is the third ACT HoR electorate (created because of population growth in 1996 abolished in 1998 because of the reduced population growth( which was good for the Liberals at the close 1998 election)). Had the Rudd-Gillard government manged more terms the third ACT HoR electorate may well have reappeared and even been entrenched enough to survive the return of the Coalition.

  7. DTR:

    Not sure why you’re pitching a fit. You made a la-la land statement, and got corrected on it.

    Plenty of PBers including myself have dreamed of the Liberals losing their ACT Senate seat.

    Without Senate reform however, it’s highly unlikely to happen.

  9. daretotread@582

    Bemused

    I have plenty of idea of the complexity but that still does not mean it should not be done.

    Now if you had read my post you would see that I want a well trained group of “officers” (or specialists)who would know and use all the equipment. Vitally however they can train others. I would have to query how genuinely effective ANY equipment is if it takes too long to learn to use it. It is a balance but high tech equipment may not be much use in a real emergency, especially if it is so hard to use that we need someone to spend 8 hours a day for 30 years to use it.

    As for manufacturing capacity that is an old hat argument. These days production designs are done on the computer so it should be very easy to switch production from making parts for cars to parts for tanks. There are Robots and flexible production lines.

    So you would pit a low-tech mass army against high tech armed forces of another country? Good luck with that.

    I think you are really just proving my point.

  12. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/09/roy-morgan-business-confidence-fades-in-august/

    [Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its business confidence survey for August, which registered a 2.5% decline over the month to be 14.8% below the peak recorded in October 2013 following the federal election, and 1.7% below the average of the last four years….

    The main factor dragging down business confidence was the decrease in the “proportion of businesses feeling that economic conditions in Australia would improve over the next year and five years”. There was also a decline in the “proportion of businesses feeling that they would be better off financially in 12 months’ time”.]

    The ineptitude of the Abbott regime is registering even with its closest constituency.

  13. Well really zoidy how many years has it been since Labor had a primary vote exceeding 40% – 1 year in the last 21 years.

  14. CTar1 @ 514

    [Scottish homeowners face mortgage meltdown if Yes campaign wins

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/11080611/Scottish-homeowners-face-mortgage-meltdown-if-Yes-campaign-wins.html%5D

    Oh dear.

    A Unionist newspaper quoting that snivilling spoiled rich boy Osbourne about another catatrophy if Scotland became a normal country.

    It can join the list:

    Everything from new jacobite war, threats from outer space to civil war in Africa!!

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/when-youre-happy-and-you-know-it/

  16. [“@JustinianNews explains why I have no regrets in advising #slipper to pursue an abuse of process claim
    theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
    #Ashbbygate]

    Amazing tweet from Bornstein considering they did not stick with Slipper for the hearing, sued him for unpaid fees and the advice was proven wrong in the place that matters – court.

  17. briefly@603

    582
    daretotread

    These days production designs are done on the computer so it should be very easy to switch production from making parts for cars to parts for tanks. There are Robots and flexible production lines.


    …except we soon won’t make anything automotive in this economy…hardly so much as a roof-rack or a tow-bar.

    Yes, not like WWII when GMH made artillery, railway workshops made aircraft parts for Beaufort bombers, Hendersons Springs made other parts etc.

    Equipment has got much more complex and at the same time our heavy industrial capacity has probably declined.

  20. @EDJ/618

    No, that’s selective.

    But if you want to be like that, The Liberal Party never past 40% primary votes by itself, it relied on a Coalition of parties.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2007

    Liberal Party of Australia 36.60%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2010

    Liberal Party of Australia 30.46%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2013

    Liberal Party of Australia 32.02%

  21. Yes well zoidy that kind of proves my point doesnt it? If you cant get to 50% on your own do it with a partner -the Libs partner with the Nats, why wouldnt Labor partner with the Greens?

  22. 614

    Scottish mortgages denominated in the legal currency of Scotland would likely stay in that currency if there was a change in currency. That is usually how currency changes work.

  24. Bemused

    Stop putting words into my mouth. If high tech equipment is needed and useable and has a reasonable shelf life then go ahead. All I query is super high tech outdated before it is used. I am NOT suggesting we do not have high tech equipment BUT if it takes too much training to use I suspect it is probably a white elephant.

    I also query equipment which has as its primary function overseas attack. I believe our defence force should be for defence, not for overseas incursions.

    Indeed I think in fact what I am saying is spend on the equipment if it is useful but save money on the grunts. This sounds very cruel but military cannon fodder are not a rare commodity. We do not need to keep many thousands of units in long term storage, given that each unit costs about $100,000/yr to maintain. Better to have trained specialists who can ramp up the supply of cannon fodder very very quickly.

  26. Bemused and Briefly

    Re manufacturing

    Quite!!!!!!!!

    Letting go the car industry was in defence terms utterly stupid. We just might need tanks one day or armoured vehicles. If there is a hot war they are not going to make it in a boat from the USA or South Korea.

  29. daretotread@624

    Bemused

    Stop putting words into my mouth. If high tech equipment is needed and useable and has a reasonable shelf life then go ahead. All I query is super high tech outdated before it is used. I am NOT suggesting we do not have high tech equipment BUT if it takes too much training to use I suspect it is probably a white elephant.

    I also query equipment which has as its primary function overseas attack. I believe our defence force should be for defence, not for overseas incursions.

    Indeed I think in fact what I am saying is spend on the equipment if it is useful but save money on the grunts. This sounds very cruel but military cannon fodder are not a rare commodity. We do not need to keep many thousands of units in long term storage, given that each unit costs about $100,000/yr to maintain. Better to have trained specialists who can ramp up the supply of cannon fodder very very quickly.

    What is the shelf / service life of aircraft, tanks, submarines etc?
    Measured in decades.

    What is the procurement lead time?
    From years to decades.

    Yes, we can ramp up production of rifles. Good luck!

  30. [ Indeed I think in fact what I am saying is spend on the equipment if it is useful but save money on the grunts. This sounds very cruel but military cannon fodder are not a rare commodity. We do not need to keep many thousands of units in long term storage, given that each unit costs about $100,000/yr to maintain. Better to have trained specialists who can ramp up the supply of cannon fodder very very quickly. ]

    Another use for Abbott’s “green army”, perhaps?

  32. daretotread@626

    Bemused and Briefly

    Re manufacturing

    Quite!!!!!!!!

    Letting go the car industry was in defence terms utterly stupid. We just might need tanks one day or armoured vehicles. If there is a hot war they are not going to make it in a boat from the USA or South Korea.

    Yes, but the car industry is gone.
    Our railway workshops are much diminished.
    Our aircraft heavy maintenance capacity is shrinking…
    We don’t even make a lot of our uniforms and boots.
    Get the picture?

  40. Scratch that. Qanda night. *sighs*

    [ABC Q&A @QandA · 33m
    In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 41%, ALP 37%, GREENS 12%.]

  42. Re the royal offspring …

    It really is astonishing news that an apparently healthy woman of childbearing age is pregnant for a second time. This is an amazing era. Perhaps she will blow us all away at some point and have a third.

  46. Cut penalty rates, to create jobs, anyone believing that is stupid enough the believe in trickle down economics….

    must be a Liberal

  48. ROFLMAO – Sam talking about the $10 bucks Gillardine raised from the mining tax. If he was fair dinkum he’d be advocating tripling it.

  50. Unless the Government legislates for employers to provide salary increases equal to the amount of the Super contributions ‘deferred’. The Federal Government couldn’t do that if they wanted to (which they don’t).

Comments Page 13 of 14
1 … 12 13 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *