Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No real change in Essential Research, but some interesting findings from both parties’ internal pollsters have emerged in the media this week.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.

Federal electoral news nuggets:

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.

• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.

• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.

• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 17
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  1. CommSec ‏@CommSec 46s

    RBA Governor rules out rate cut: like to see lower unemployment, but not by inflating “already elevated level of housing prices”.^CJ #ausbiz

    Seems our Governor prefers high unemployment to low house prices, not to much of a surprise, lot’s of vested interests in Parliament with almost all Senators have conflict of interest with investments in Housing.

  4. zoidlord@546

    Retweeted by Roy Morgan
    Roy Morgan ‏@RoyMorganNZ 6m

    Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a sharp decline in support for National (45%, down 3%) http://ow.ly/B17OJ #nzpol

    Kim Dotcom mentioned that he was going to release some information about the Nationals that was going to be damaging on the 15th.

    This was mentioned in Triple J’s Hack segment last week during a focus on the “Internet Mana” alliance in the NZ elections.

  5. [WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 1:02 pm | Permalink
    NFL is that the game where two teams play two other teams?

    I’m pretty sure there are three subteams offensive defensive and special teams – the cheerleaders are a completely separate team but substantially fitter. But I’m not an expert.]

    I believe the gameday roster for each NFL team is 45 players ( 4 & a bit teams). With coaching & support staff, cheerleaders, media etc it’s easy to see why the sidelines seem so crowded.

  7. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@549

    Abbott just revealed one of their next election scares. The ALP will reinstate the carbon tax. They are going to rerun the carbon tax scare. I say to the ALP, go for it. Take it to the b’tards. Put an ETS/Carbon Tax on the policy platform. Fight it on its merits. People are ready for it, they will have seen there is no cheaper electricity without it, and a couple of hot summers and rainless winters will concentrate their minds.

    If we go full term to the next election, which we most probably will, people will see that they didn’t get back all the money Abbott promised that we will save, and will indeed lose out more due to the policies and budget measures that he is pushing out.

    Even worse if they realise it wasn’t as big an impact to have the CT around, plus people thought once Abbott repealed the CT, that was the end of the discussion. Apparently not by the looks of it. Voter fatigue.

  9. BK

    [ Abbott in QT described low income people’s super contributions as “squirrelling money away”. What a disrespectful idiot! ]

    It has always been part of the conservative’s DNA that poor people should not be able to save, but should instead spend every cent they earn during their lifetimes, and then die penniless.

  11. Amazing how deluded the government is in thinking that just because they’ve repealed a couple of taxes that the economy is fixed overnight.

  16. Hey Zoid:

    [Seems our Governor prefers high unemployment to low house prices, not to much of a surprise, lot’s of vested interests in Parliament with almost all Senators have conflict of interest with investments in Housing.]

    It’s not quite that easy. We’ve eaten half of next season’s seed as grain, and haven’t sowed enough for the future.

    This is a result of the so-called “wealth effect” of rising house prices, plus the short-run income maximising effects of the negative gearing-CGT discount nexus, which just brought future consumption forward at the expense of future productive investment.

    The next point in the cycle is probably going to be both inflation and unemployment and/or further declines to real wages, and at the same time the RBA will likely be forced to raise interest rates (at least it will if it follows the latest Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy).

    Or the whole financial system could freeze, the outcome of which is much harder to predict.

    Basically, I wouldn’t want to be in Stevens’ shoes now, but on the other hand, he’s ultimately responsible as a result of IR decisions the RBA made in the past.

  18. [Lynchpin

    Does anyone else think the Government dudding the electorate on Superannuation yesterday will show a 2% shift in primary vote to Labor?]

    The repeal of the mining tax will receive a very ho-hum reception in voter land (after all, it was directed at mining companies and Abbott told us many times that nobody paid it anyway).

    On the other hand, the attack on the superannuation guarantee is something that every employee can understand. Even if people do not see the money going into superannuation now, they know that it will be there when they retire.

    Very few people are likely to believe the Abbott/Palmer story about getting higher wages to spend now if they miss out on payments into superannuation.

  19. Just so I got this right… the Government who crowed about all of the unfunded spending attached to the deeply-flawed MRRT in Opposition – have been forced to keep a good whack of the spending, take a $6.5b hit to the Budget aaaand give up whatever little the MRRT brings in, just to satisfy their hate-boner for taxes?

    Morons…

  22. @LU/566

    What a load of rubbish.

    RBA was given $8 billion dollars, for doing sh!t all.

    And the best he can say, is that unemployment is at the expense of house prices? FFS.

  23. P1

    [It has always been part of the conservative’s DNA that poor people should not be able to save, but should instead spend every cent they earn during their lifetimes, and then die penniless.]

    It’s also the conservatives’ belief that poor people deserve to be poor. If they only worked harder, they’d be rich, and they could then afford a crafty accountant to help maximise their savings and minimise their tax.

  24. [RBA was given $8 billion dollars, for doing sh!t all.]

    That was ostensibly to cover be used to hedge the risk of the dollar collapsing as a result of lower IRs.

    [And the best he can say, is that unemployment is at the expense of house prices? FFS.]

    So what’s he to do? How does he use monetary policy to try fix unemployment without also pushing asset prices through the roof?

    Monetary policy can only do so much. It’s up to fiscal policy to get the economy moving from this point (ala Keynes), but that’s outside Stevens’ remit.

  25. @LU/574

    The solution is there, it’s the people in power that is refusing to do the hard work because it’s protecting their mates.

    The same problem that Labor failed to do with the tax reform.

    Coalition Party are doing the easiest work, and that is playing with the Unemployed and low income earners.

  28. [The solution is there, it’s the people in power that is refusing to do the hard work because it’s protecting their mates.]

    If you’re referring to the Parliament and it’s role in determining fiscal policy, then I am in nothing but complete agreement!

  29. zoidlord@572

    @LU/566

    What a load of rubbish.

    RBA was given $8 billion dollars, for doing sh!t all.

    And the best he can say, is that unemployment is at the expense of house prices? FFS.

    You completely misunderstand his statement.
    He is afraid to lower interest rates to reduce unemployment because lower interest rates will cause further inflation of house prices.

  30. Monetary policy can only do so much.

    ‘Macroprudential regulation’ has become somewhat trendy elsewhere of late.

    I’m not quite sure why it has been comprehensively ruled out as an option here.

  32. 579

    So the solution is to end negative gearing on existing homes and thus relieve the pressure on house prices, allowing interest rates to be lowered to relieve unemployment.

  33. So, the Vic Govt previosly saved Geoff Shaw and now want him expelled, but the Oppistion who previously wanted him expelled now want him saved… ??

    Idiocy engulfs us.

  34. [He is afraid to lower interest rates to reduce unemployment because lower interest rates will cause further inflation of house prices.]

    Yep. The risk-free rate is already below inflation, so real interest rates are negative. If you want to maintain the value of your savings you are compelled to speculate. If you already own capital, you win.

    And of course if you’re a bank operating in an inflation-targeting regime replete with free Govt deposit insurance you always win, because you’re running a shell game.

  35. Coming Up – Monday, 8 September
    Jimmy Barnes – Rock Legend
    Kim Williams – Author and former media executive
    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells – Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Social Services
    Sam Dastyari – Labor Senator
    Kate McClymont – Investigative journalist

  37. [I’m not quite sure why it has been comprehensively ruled out as an option here.]

    Because it might work? 😉

    I think the NZ experience is that it’s the FHBs who have stayed out of the market for loans, thereby deny the Ponzi pyramid it’s new lower level.

    Or in other words, if you don’t have any funds, you can’t bet anything in the shell game.

  38. @bemused/579

    Judging by the recent data, there is pretty much low inflation all around.

    EU/UK:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28982551
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/02/uk-britain-inflation-yougov-idUKKBN0GX19W20140902

    Australia:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/rba-to-hold-as-inflation-stays-flat/story-e6frg926-1227043614296
    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-beginning-slow-003609473.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/td-securitiesmelbourne-institute-inflation-gauge-at-sevenmonth-low-20140901-10auhi.html

  39. victoria

    A judicious selection of those panellists might be interesting, but as a group they’ll all be fighting for supremacy. And of course Tony J will win!

  40. Sabra Lane ‏@SabraLane 3m

    PJ Keating, the father of compulsory super; says yesterday’s deal was ‘tawdry’ and nothing other than ‘wilful sabotage’.

  41. Zoid,
    Property prices aren’t included in standard measures of price inflation, even though they are primarily consumptive goods.

  43. My last (mildly provocative) pontification for the day is that compulsory superannuation is acting a protected shop for the finance industry, who make billions clipping tickets, and in doing so eat the future wealth of the working class (industry super aside). The rate should not be raised.

  45. [ Lynchpin
    Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    Does anyone else think the Government dudding the electorate on Superannuation yesterday will show a 2% shift in primary vote to Labor? ]

    More likely few voters know or care about it.

    They are being shafted by the tories left right and centre without barely a peep from most.

  46. Puff, the Magic Dragon @ 558

    I have a problem watching sports where men play it in pyjamas.

    So one-day & 20/20 cricket matches are obviously off your viewing list.

  47. From April

    [Capital gains tax exemption on a person’s principal place of residence and the ability to negatively gear, irrespective of how wealthy a taxpayer may be, some say, are burdens on the federal budget.
    Now, 1.2 million people negatively gear – that is, deduct any losses they make on ­investments, including mortgage interest, from their overall income when they calculate their tax liability. Tax Office statistics show negatively geared property investors claimed $13.2 billion in losses in 2010-11, up from $10.1 billion the year before. The average loss per negatively geared investor was $10,950, but this loss doubled for those earning more than $180,000 to $23,800.
    An option to limit the number of investors accessing negative gearing, by restricting the tax benefit to new housing, could ­substantially reduce that figure, and have an added benefit of increasing housing supply, some groups say.
    Australia is one of only a few developed nations that allows negative gearing, which economist Saul Eslake says is wasted money that inflates house prices.
    This is made worse, he says, by a raft of other policies including the Howard government’s 1999 decision to tax capital gains at half the rate applicable to other income and the decision by successive federal and state governments to boost first home buyer grants.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/boom-puts-spotlight-on-negative-gearing-20140411-36him.html#ixzz3CEPZvETx

  48. @LU/593

    Negative Gearing is also acting a protected shop for Realestates, Landlords, Overseas investors, etc.

    And I agree with Tom @ 582 in removing it.

    Not to mention that Judith Sloan (And TheOz) is against it though:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/calls-to-restrict-negative-gearing-fly-in-the-face-of-the-facts/story-fnciif3z-1227041749615

    But then again we have this article over at Businesspectator:
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/7/9/australian-news/why-negative-gearing-australias-biggest-policy-failure

  50. dave

    Abbott shouldn’t militarily go near Ukraine with a barge pole. Humanitarian aid is fine, although I doubt they need it. Military aid is ridiculous.

    I’m in favour of acting against ISIS given the real risk of genocide (and us helping fark up the country in the first place) but there is absolutely no reason to get involved in Ukraine.

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