Seat of the week: Menzies

The 2013 election delivered the Liberal Party its biggest margin yet in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies, which it had held comfortably since its creation in 1984.

Blue numbers indicate size of two-party Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Menzies covers eastern Melbourne suburbs from Bulleen at the western end through Templestowe, Doncaster, Donvale and Warrandyte to Wonga Park and Croydon North at the eastern end. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, prior to which the area had been divided between Diamond Valley in the west and Casey in the east. At the time of its creation it extended northwards to Eltham, but this area was exchanged for the Warrandyte end of the electorate in 1996. The entire area is solid or better for the Liberals, who have held the seat at all times by margins of no less than 5.4%. The present margin of 14.5% is the highest in the electorate’s history, following consecutive swings of 2.7% against the statewide trend in 2010 and 5.8% in 2013.

The inaugural member for Menzies was Neil Brown, who had held Diamond Valley from 1969 to 1972 and again from 1975 to 1983, having lost the seat with the defeats of Coalition governments on both occasions. Established in the safe new seat of Menzies from 1985, he served as the party’s deputy leader under John Howard from 1985 to 1987. Brown retired in February 1991 and was succeeded by Kevin Andrews, who won the by-election held the following May without opposition from the Labor Party.

Noted for his religious convictions and social conservatism, Andrews came to prominence when he spearheaded a successful push to overturn Northern Territory euthanasia laws in federal parliament. He was promoted to the outer ministry as Ageing Minister after the 2001 election and then to cabinet in October 2003, serving first as Workplace Relations Minister during the introduction of WorkChoices and then as Immigration Minister from January 2007 until the government’s defeat the following November, in which time he was dogged by the Muhamed Haneef affair.

Andrews was dropped from the Coalition front bench after the November 2007 election defeat, but returned as Shadow Families, Housing and Human Services Minister when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009. He had played a key role in Abbott’s rise to the leadership, having made a tokenistic challenge to Turnbull’s leadership a week earlier in protest against his support for the Rudd government’s emissions trading scheme. Andrews was back in cabinet following the election of Abbott’s government in September 2013 in the role of Social Services Minister, a newly packaged portfolio encompassing aged care, multicultural affairs and settlement services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,188 comments on “Seat of the week: Menzies”

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  1. Socrates

    A Sunni tribal leader who claims his grouping can mobilise 90$% of the tribes recently said that they can defeat IS and will only fight them on one condition. They do not want US guns but US and international support guaranteeing Sunni representation and rights within Iraq. Basically unwinding Maliki’s sectarian agenda. Will “we” take up the offer ?

  2. Fran

    Thanks.

    Poroti

    Agreed – the Libs have followed the slide in Republican ideology trend like sheep.

    Boerwar

    I agree on the history, and supporting Al Maliki was bad ethics and bad politics by the USA. But if they and we can negotiate objectively with the Sunnis, there is an opportunity. The IS is killing any Sunni who do not submit to them. I do not know if our leaders will have the wisdom to grasp that opportunity. Have a good day all.

  3. I see that Abbott is arming the Kurds… but only just enough to ensure that the Kurds can (a) assist in resisting ISIS and (b) ensuring that the Kurds cannot set up Kurdistan.

    I wonder how Abbott will spin being on the same side as Iran? After all, Iran has been arming the Kurds for weeks now, on the quiet, of course. I wonder when next we will hear Abbott ranting about the mad mullahs running Iran? Still it is nice to think that Russian warplanes, presumably being flown by Russian ‘volunteers’ are assisting Kurds who are being assisted by Iran and Australia.

    Ensuring that the Kurds can fight, but only a little bid, mains a fundamental status quo that, all the other horror unleashed by Howard’s Iraq invasion aside, Iraq is permanently destabilised.

    Incidentally, where was Abbott’s interest in Iraq’s humanitarian disaster when the Australian navy was blockading Iraq? Estimates vary widely but they run into the hundreds of thousands of children who died as a direct result of the Howard Government. Abbott was a senior cabinet minister of the Cabinet that approved the decision.

    The Australian MSM ignored the murderous nature of the blockade at the time. It has ignored it ever since. But Australian warships played an active part in the blockade.

    I wonder how many of the ISIS fighters who went hungry or who lost a brother or a sister to that blockade?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctions_against_Iraq#Estimates_of_deaths_due_to_sanctions

  5. So we have Abbott working side by side with Rouhani and Putin.

    I await the MSM’s probing questions on why we are fighting with Putin and Rouhani.

  6. We do not seem to have learned anything from the past. How groups/regimes have western powers supplied arms to only to end up with those weapons being turned against western forces.

    USA armed Afghanistan in their fight against Russia, then had those weapons turned against them when they went to fight to Taliban.

  7. Boerwar

    As scumbag Madeleine Albright said…..

    [Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq: We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

    Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omnskeu-puE

  9. [42
    Socrates

    This story highlights the complexity of the current IS fighting in Iraq and Syria. It also shows the potential for a political solution or at least an effective coalition against the Islamic State, given how many enemies it has created in the Arab world, and how little legitimacy it has.]

    On the contrary, events in Iraq and Syria (and elsewhere) illustrate the depth of sectarian hatreds and the support for theocratic revolution among the Sunni, following a similar revolution in Shiite Iran.

    Far from illustrating the capacity of the US to foster a political (and, still less, a military) solution, the current situation is a direct consequence of recurrent interference by western powers in the century since the collapse of the Ottomans.

    The current conflicts can also be seen as a revival of the historical military contests between Persia and its neighbours, contests that lasted for centuries and had both territorial and religious dimensions.

  11. [ poroti

    Posted Sunday, August 31, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    As scumbag Madeleine Albright said…..
    ]

    ———————————————–

    And another one of her quotes :

    It is the threat of the use of force [against Iraq] and our line-up there that is going to put force behind the diplomacy.

    But if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see the danger here to all of us.

    Stated on NBC’s Today Show (February 19, 1998)

  12. 51
    poroti

    This amounts to the Sunni demanding the re-constitution of the regime of Saddam Hussein and the ejection from Southern Iraq of pro-Iranian elements.

    It is a counter-revolutionary proposal that cannot succeed, but which more importantly illustrates the utter futility of attempts by the West to impose its will in the region.

  13. Bw /Poroti

    [After all, Iran has been arming the Kurds for weeks now, on the quiet, of course.]

    The motivation for Iran is obviously they don’t want to be surrounded by Sunni states.

    What I do wonder is what part the Pakistanis are playing in all this?

  14. briefly

    [which more importantly illustrates the utter futility of attempts by the West to impose its will in the region.]

    Yep. The whole area is a quagmire of interconnections across state borders that won’t be resolved anytime soon, or maybe ever.

  15. briefly

    [This amounts to the Sunni demanding the re-constitution of the regime of Saddam ]
    No it does not. Maliki has been terribly and indeed murderously sectarian. The Sunni have legitimate reasons to demand this is redressed.

  16. Another March today. A reminder the the Canberra Press Gallery National Security is not the Abbott poll boost he thinks it is

  17. CTar1

    The Pakistanis are probably treading very carefully. They have long had to damp down attempts by local loons from both sides trying to stir up sectarian conflict. A wide scale outbreak would destroy the place.

    This may keep them busy in the mean time.

    [Islamabad: Shades of Tahrir Square
    By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

    KARACHI – The nerve-wracking sit-ins of thousands of protesters of the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Dr Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), now in the 11th day, have turned Islamabad’s D-Chowk, the highly sensitive area in front of the Parliament House and near diplomatic enclave, into a version of Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Qadri, a Canadian cleric has besieged the country’s capital with thousands of protesters in the capital’s Red zone area, while it is thousands of Imran Khan’s supporters who have flocked to D-Chowk to demonstrate anger at alleged vote-rigging in last year’s election.

    Whichever camp they back, protesters are demanding removal of the government of Nawaz Sharif, the dissolution of parliament anda re-election ]
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/SOU-01-270814.html

  18. Got to wonder at the thinking.

    Abbott buys bomb proof BMW costing around $500k without a proper tender process as one of his daughters hets the gig as an ‘ambassador’ for BMW.

    Abbott then jumps on a push bike to ride around North Sydney and to do those travel allowance rort charity bike rides.

    Will he be ordering a bomb proof bike?

  19. Thank dog J Bishop is not the Treasurer. Her math is worse than Joe’s. She starts with a noice Hyper Bowl.

    [Julie Bishop has described Islamic State as “one of the most barbaric and brutal terrorist organisations the world has ever seen” – and there are Australians “at the head of it”.

    “There are at least five times as many Australians fighting with (Islamic State in Iraq) than there were fighting with al-Qa’ida and the Taliban,”……….Ms Bishop said about “30 Australian citizens” were involved in fighting with al-Qa’ida and the Taliban…….There are at least 60 Australian citizens who are fighting with extremists in Iraq – ]

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/foreign-minister-julie-bishop-says-isis-most-significant-domestic-security-threat-we-have-faced/story-fnhocxo3-1227042428529

  20. [65
    poroti

    briefly

    This amounts to the Sunni demanding the re-constitution of the regime of Saddam

    No it does not. Maliki has been terribly and indeed murderously sectarian. The Sunni have legitimate reasons to demand this is redressed.]

    I’m sure the Sunni have well-founded complaints. But this does not mean it is within the writ of the US to satisfy them. It is more likely that the Sunni will create their own autonomous region/s – perhaps create a new State or States – than the Shia-dominated regime will be dislodged from Baghdad. This is occurring before our eyes.

  21. briefly

    [ It is more likely that the Sunni will create their own autonomous region/s]
    My guess too. However as the US and Iran between them have a huge say in Baghdad it makes sense for the Sunni leaders to at least ask the US to do something. I think it is a chance that should be taken as it shows they are for the moment still willing to give international action a chance.

  22. Mari, I’m afraid that I’m mainly a lurker, but I do check BK’s links each morning and often use them as inspiration for some anti-Abbott-government tweeting. I try to keep an eye on PB during the day, especially for alerts about interesting press conferences or events at ICAC or TURC, but I don’t manage to read everything here.

  23. Briefly/Socrates

    It is of course even more complicated that just Iraq ans Syria.

    The leading Gulf states are Sunni but there are poor Shia which threaten rebellion. Saudi and the Gilf states hate iran and the shia because they threaten their OWN existence.

    This is the reason why Saudi first funded Alqueda – YEP our friend Saudi was behind Osama bin Laden and it is why they gave arms to ISIS. It is also why they game arms to the Chechnyens. the Saudis openly persecute Shia. Now most of the Shia live in the oil rich east.

  24. The ‘charity shag’ described by Jackson. I haven’t yet worked out from the comments who was donating to charity and who was receiving it.

  25. lizzie@74

    The ‘charity shag’ described by Jackson. I haven’t yet worked out from the comments who was donating to charity and who was receiving it.

    Not sure if you’re serious, Lizzie, but to me it is a shag given to a man by a woman out of the goodness of her heart.

  28. AA

    Menzies seems to be have the same wisdom as a corrupted print job 😛

    To be fair though, I think the small-l liberals like Menzies and Fraser are so much better than the current crop of wingnuts we have now despite some of the policies I disagree with.

    Some of the centrist policies they had are not unlike Hawke or Gillard’s.

  29. AA

    [Abbott buys bomb proof BMW costing around $500k]

    And it just won’t be one.

    Also the selection made by Labor as only viable option.

  30. Speaking of a blue-ribbon electorate, does these ones (Menzies) have the same amount of solar panels on the roof in the suburbs as in the Labor-dominated electorates?

    I’m sure there’s more than the apartments can hold in the Green latte sipping suburbs but for the Kooyong electorate where I work in, there’s too many heritage-style houses to properly hold many solar panels.

  31. 😀

    Beautiful examples of different interpretations of a question. I assumed that either sex could offer the charity.

    Lots of ‘charity shags’ in marriage, then.

  32. Raaraa@78

    AA

    Menzies seems to be have the same wisdom as a corrupted print job

    To be fair though, I think the small-l liberals like Menzies and Fraser are so much better than the current crop of wingnuts we have now despite some of the policies I disagree with.

    Some of the centrist policies they had are not unlike Hawke or Gillard’s.

    Although I lived through the Menzies era, I don’t remember much happening. For some of it I was too young to take notice and for the rest it is because ‘not much happened’.

    Menzies did do a few useful things. He kept the Snowy Mountains Scheme going, he set up the RBA to achieve some of the objectives Chifley sought via nationalisation, he started the Commonwealth Scholarships to fund some students, who otherwise could not afford it, to go to university.

    These may not have been radical measures, but they were all constructive as opposed to the wrecking policies currently being pursued by the Abbott Gang.

  34. Bemused

    Menzies must have really believed in the Domino Theory otherwise he would have had us sit out Vietnam (ie follow the Brits).

  41. Confessions

    I watched what i could online at the hospital as my FIL has developed a severe infection. He has leaukaemia and he was in a serious condition. Today he has improved and I am home catching up on house stuff.
    I was with a few cousins during the afternoon watching the game online. They are Bombers supporters. One was saying Essendon would win, and the other Carlton. I kept saying, Carlton will not get over the line as has been the experience of the whole year. I was half right!!

  43. [Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor Aug 29
    Mr Abbott at it again dog whistling “race” .Invasion of Ukraine “reprehensible ” whilst British “settlement” best thing since sliced bread.]

  45. vic:

    Sorry to hear of your father in law.

    I thought we’d win, so was disappointed for it to end in a draw. Still, better than a loss.

  46. CTar1/fess

    Has indeed been a very difficult run on the home front with ill health and other sad occurrences. Just got to put one foot in front of the other.

    Re the Carlton game. They have been competitive, but they are not polished enough to finish off games. Hopefully Malthouse can take the team to the next level in 2015. Go blues!!

  48. I’ve just been reading an article in the SMH about corrupt LNP politician Tim Owens.

    His wife is described as a “respected expert in mindfulness”.

    Does anyone have the remotest idea what that means?

  49. [74
    lizzie

    The ‘charity shag’ described by Jackson. I haven’t yet worked out from the comments who was donating to charity and who was receiving it.]

    Either way, the reference does recall the comparison “as cold as charity”.

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