Seat of the week: Menzies

The 2013 election delivered the Liberal Party its biggest margin yet in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies, which it had held comfortably since its creation in 1984.

Blue numbers indicate size of two-party Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Menzies covers eastern Melbourne suburbs from Bulleen at the western end through Templestowe, Doncaster, Donvale and Warrandyte to Wonga Park and Croydon North at the eastern end. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, prior to which the area had been divided between Diamond Valley in the west and Casey in the east. At the time of its creation it extended northwards to Eltham, but this area was exchanged for the Warrandyte end of the electorate in 1996. The entire area is solid or better for the Liberals, who have held the seat at all times by margins of no less than 5.4%. The present margin of 14.5% is the highest in the electorate’s history, following consecutive swings of 2.7% against the statewide trend in 2010 and 5.8% in 2013.

The inaugural member for Menzies was Neil Brown, who had held Diamond Valley from 1969 to 1972 and again from 1975 to 1983, having lost the seat with the defeats of Coalition governments on both occasions. Established in the safe new seat of Menzies from 1985, he served as the party’s deputy leader under John Howard from 1985 to 1987. Brown retired in February 1991 and was succeeded by Kevin Andrews, who won the by-election held the following May without opposition from the Labor Party.

Noted for his religious convictions and social conservatism, Andrews came to prominence when he spearheaded a successful push to overturn Northern Territory euthanasia laws in federal parliament. He was promoted to the outer ministry as Ageing Minister after the 2001 election and then to cabinet in October 2003, serving first as Workplace Relations Minister during the introduction of WorkChoices and then as Immigration Minister from January 2007 until the government’s defeat the following November, in which time he was dogged by the Muhamed Haneef affair.

Andrews was dropped from the Coalition front bench after the November 2007 election defeat, but returned as Shadow Families, Housing and Human Services Minister when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009. He had played a key role in Abbott’s rise to the leadership, having made a tokenistic challenge to Turnbull’s leadership a week earlier in protest against his support for the Rudd government’s emissions trading scheme. Andrews was back in cabinet following the election of Abbott’s government in September 2013 in the role of Social Services Minister, a newly packaged portfolio encompassing aged care, multicultural affairs and settlement services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,188 comments on “Seat of the week: Menzies”

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  1. Diogenes@761:

    [Ed Milliband is farked if the Scots break away from England. Labor would be permanently in opposition without the 40 seat advantage they get over the Tories from Scotland.]

    All three of Tony Blair’s terms were with a larger majority than that.

  2. Boerwar

    Yes all forgotten the current “goodies” aligned with Baghdad a few weeks back who went to an Iraqi prison dragged out and executed a few dozen/score prisoners. Only the Sunni ones mind.

  3. Re the Scots: I think if I were Scottish I’d jump at the opportunity to break away from a polity as severely infested with the virus of market fundamentalism as the UK.

  4. There is no limit to the harshness of punishment Abbott is to inflict on Russia. After learning we are not going to export weapons I’ve just heard we will also no longer export oil and gas to them. The world’s largest oil and gas exporter will be devastated by the news.

  5. poroti@854

    There is no limit to the harshness of punishment Abbott is to inflict on Russia. After learning we are not going to export weapons I’ve just heard we will also no longer export oil and gas to them. The world’s largest oil and gas exporter will be devastated by the news.

    I believe a Vodka export ban is also on the cards. Take that, Putin!

  6. The hypocrisy of the Govt & ALP is clear for those watching with non-partisans eyes wide open.

    Why no action against other Govts/organisations who behave with the similar barbarity to ISIS/ISIL.

    I cringed at both the Abbott and Shorten speeches before QT today.

    Just tell us the truth about why we’re participating !

  7. The RC into the H.I.P. by Hanger QC has a bright spot near the end where he repeats what Possum Comitatus said about the rate of fires falling under the Govt program. He gives the numbers as well and says the good result happened because the Fed Govt put in place controls and practices to prevent fires. So much so that he saw no reason to pursue the matter further because there was little serious property damage and no loss of life or serious injury.

    from the report.

    12.9.24 …..That (CSIRO) report estimated the rate of insulation-related fires in dwellings pre-HIP to have been about 2.54 per 100,000 per year.

    12.9.26  The CSIRO’s analysis of the fire data indicates that the fire incident rate for those homes in which insulation was installed under the HIP is some 1.07 incidents per 100,000 households per year. That rate is below that which applied before the HIP started.
    .
    12.9.34  The data, however, with which no witness and no submission sought to take issue, shows that the rate of fires for the period of the HIP was certainly no greater than before that program started. This shows an apparent improvement in the controls and/or in the practices with respect to laying insulation in proximity to heat-producing elements in the ceiling under HIP. Although of course it is regrettable that any fires occurred under the HIP, it is of some comfort that few seemed to have resulted in serious property damage and none are said to have resulted in the loss of life or in serious injury to people.

    12.9.35  I have not found it necessary to pursue this issue further. The occurrence of fires does not appear to have been an issue of particular concern, other than to the media. I invited the parties granted leave to appear at the Commission and the public to bring to the Commission’s attention any particular concern that existed regarding fires. I also issued a request for such information during the public sittings of the Commission. 
That did result in submissions being made, but none that is contrary to the matters I have set out above.

  8. bemused

    [Governments don’t run banks or companies and they never should even try. Public enterprises should be run by boards appointed indirectly by the government.]

    The problem with Bank SA was that the government did try. Bannon met with Tim Marcus-Clarke frequently about the bank.

  9. Kurds and Arabs shafted after WW One Poroti
    _____________________________

    Your right about the Kurds being shafted by the West…but so were the Arabs at Versailles
    They had fought in Palestine and Jordan ,some led by Lawrence,and others by various Arab leaders to be free of Turkish Ottomam rule…only be being shafted when the UK took Palestine.Jordan and Iraq..and the French took Syria and Lebanon This led to an endless revolt in Syria and when the UK supported the establishment of a Jewish Homeland in Palestine,it touched of an Arab evolt which contnues to the present time

  12. [Bushfire Bill

    Saw a news clip tonight of NZ police looking for a guy after a shooting . They had a drone up helping to look in park bushland. Not a big fancy one just one that looks like what a beginner would get.]

    The cheaper, smaller drones are getting better every day.

    The one I have weighs 1.5 kilos with a full payload, including the drone itself, motorized gimbal, video transmitter and Go-Pro camera. With this payload, flying time is about 15 minutes before you need to head for home.

    In this configuration, range is about a 1 kilometre radius (depending on trees interfering with the video signal) with a 700 metre ceiling. You can see a long way from 700 metres (although the legal ceiling in built-up areas is only 125 metres). The aircraft will fly around 50kph at top speed.

    The picture is perfectly smooth and very professional looking as you can shoot up to 2704 x 1536 with a Go-Pro, edit it at that pixel size and then only squeeze down to 1920 x 1080 at final render. Assuming you use “Protune” mode in the Go-Pro you can easily get “cinema quality” images with full depth and sharpness – not “digital” looking at all. My drone is the same one the guy used to film the new Apple building.

    The aircraft comes with GPS on-board. If it loses the control signal it will automatically return to Home Base, and there are several other very useful GPS features (including flight-path programmability – making it a REAL autonomous drone). The video has a “heads-up” display which makes visual navigation, via the live video feedback, easy. Unless you’re just flying it around a park you need the video feedback, as the aircraft virtually disappears at 100 metres distance against a bright sky. After that, you’re on your own, just you and the camera and the drone. Once again, the rules come into play: they stipulate that you can’t fly it out of visual range in built-up areas.

    CASA used to enforce a rule that made it mandatory for any pilot receiving payment for flying his or her drone to have a full private pilot’s licence (the theory part, not the actual flying). Hundreds of professional photographers and cinematographers obtained these, costing up to $25,0000 each. Otherwise insurance would be voided too, as well as flying them for profit being illegal without a licence.

    Lately though, CASA and the government are talking about reducing licencing restrictions, drawing a “weight” line at 2 kilograms. Over 2 kilos… you still need that licence. Under 2 kilos… you can earn as much as you like, as long as you keep to the height, privacy and safety regulations. No licence required.

    If this amendment goes through, there’ll be an explosion of professional and semi-professional drone flying. It will really (forgive the pun) take off. My little Phantom-II will be perfectly legal, and will have the ability to capture quality footage that up until only a few years ago could only be captured by hiring a (real) helicopter and camera rig for tens of thousands per day. Small drones like mine have already been used for cut-away shots in feature movies. Larger ones (up to 5 kilos) can carry professional Canons, Nikons, Black Magic and Red-One cameras for truly stunning footage.

    The downside is that someone is going to do something stupid one day and the whole industry will be holding its breath waiting for the regulatory axe to fall again.

    The chances of criminals or even terrosists getting a hold of a drone (or two, or three) is there, too. I doubt whether it will be long before we hear of a terrorist attack using personal drones in some capacity. They have been banned within a 5 kilometre range of the coming G20 meeting, for example, so law enforcement is awake to the possibilities. Licencing restrictions wouldn’t stop terrorists, of course, as gun and explosives laws don’t, but the natural knee-jerk reaction against legitimate civilian pilots will be ferocious.

    In some ways, fair enough. In any activity there is always one idiot who thinks they can push the envelope: someone who believes they are a superior driver will break speed rules. Someone who has an ideological hatred, or criminal intent will eventually break drone flying regulations. And then there are just the yahoos who exceed the limits for the hell of it, thinking only that their drone was so cheap they can afford to buy another one if it crashes into a truck, or some kids playing, or the Harbour Bridge or the spectators at an Iron Man competition. All of these have happened, but not often enough to cause “the authorities” to crack down on the aircraft altogether.

    So, best to make hay while the sun shines, flying-drone-wize. The temptation is always there to go that little bit over the line, but you have to be responsible for the good of everyone – in the industry and out of it. As soon as some turkey abandons this rule, it’ll be the end of the Age Of Innocence for recreational drone flying.

  14. Boerwar re “raining death” on the M East
    ___________________________________
    Actually one can date the start of this phase after WW2,at the time of the Suez crisis when UK/France and Israel invaded Egypt to “take back” the Suez Canal and they hoped…to unseat Nasser…and find a more pliable leader in Egypt
    It all collapsed when Kruschev warned the West to get out and the US under Eishenhour ,who had no illusioins about the reasons for the attack…made his opposition know and sold down the British Pound and the world markets acted ,and led to a crash which made Eden pull back,and was the last phase of the old British Empire,followed soon after by Eden’s resignation

  15. [The Abbott government’s latest attempt to scrap the mining tax appears doomed with Clive Palmer declaring his senators will vote it down without changes.]

    Is this shot in the locker no. 2 for the MRRT?

    And if so, could the govt be storing away DD triggers?

  18. [And if so, could the govt be storing away DD triggers?]

    Doubt there’ll be a D/D. The punter only need reminding that, whatever Abbott promises, he probably will do the opposite. Plenty of evidence for that. Palmer would also welcome one, as he stands to gain from extra Senate seats if his vote holds up.

  20. Diogenes@858

    bemused

    Governments don’t run banks or companies and they never should even try. Public enterprises should be run by boards appointed indirectly by the government.


    The problem with Bank SA was that the government did try. Bannon met with Tim Marcus-Clarke frequently about the bank.

    There should have been a Board between Marcus-Clarke and Bannon. And even a Board is there for Governance and not day to day operations.

  21. The AFL really needs to sort out the fiasco of being told by the Victorian clubs what guernseys they will wear. Interstate clubs have to wear a distinctive away strip but the Victorian clubs get away with doing bugger all.

    Every serious sporting league in the world has proper away strips and if the AFL wants to be taken more seriously, it needs to get more professional.

    [“From us to West Coast, we are furious that some clubs are forced to wear a white clash jumper or come up with alternative strips and some clubs are not,” Thomas told The Advertiser.

    “It is time that there was one rule on alternative jumpers — and one rule that applies to everyone.]

  22. confessions

    I don’t think the govt is interested in a DD.

    They would admit themselves the only thing keeping them afloat right now in the polls is warmongering and boats… of which the ALP is on a full unity ticket.

  25. Rex

    I am not so sure. If Team Abbott thinks the only way for its polling is down ramping up the terror threat now makes sense to boost their polling going into an election.

    Otherwise why bother doing now with the next election in 2016 and the terror thing in the past?

  26. guytaur@875

    Rex

    I am not so sure. If Team Abbott thinks the only way for its polling is down ramping up the terror threat now makes sense to boost their polling going into an election.

    Otherwise why bother doing now with the next election in 2016 and the terror thing in the past?

    They will store away the DD trigger, and then ramp up the BOATS! and JIHAD! scare campaigns. If things break their way – e.g. a full blown terrorist incident involving Australian deaths or something similar – then they will go the DD route.

    Otherwise they will have to take the harder path, and try and actually govern for a few years.

  27. I did the political compass again (the last time being some 5 years ago) and found myself near Gandhi on the left-right scale, but a bit more libertarian.

    I think JG here would end up somewhere Hawke would have been on the left-right scale, and I think Hawke is just slightly right of centre.

  28. BB:

    A DD could well see the end of the DLP, the motoring guy, the Glibertarian in NSW, and possibly the FF guy in SA.

    If PUP were to increase its Senate share at the expense of all or some of those guys, then it would be smoother sailing negotiations-wise for the govt compared to the nightmare it has now.

  30. I look with dismay at what the Coalition and Labor are doing in Iraq and I recall the words of Bernard Woolley in Yes Prime Minister: But in a democracy, shouldn’t the people get to, you know, discuss things a bit?

    Funnelling weapons to a faction in a war is an extremely risky step, both for ourselves and for the people with the misfortune to live in a land awash with weapons. There should have been a Senate debate to address questions such as:

    Name the occasions in modern history when external powers intervened on the side of a faction in a civil war.

    On which occasions did some of the people receiving the weapons and training end up using it against the security interests of the suppliers?

    On what occasions did the extra weapons improve the wellbeing of the people living in the place the outsiders intervened in?

    What are the mechanisms through which extra weapons for a faction in a civil war helps the creation of peaceful, stable, effective, transparent and accountable political institutions? On which past occasions did this happen?

    Does an organization’s use of beheading justify military assistance to factions opposing that organization? Can opponents of the Saudi Arabian government expect Australian weapons now? Why not? Which beheadings do we let slide and why?

    What is the likelihood that ISIS is using highly theatrical brutality to bait outside powers into attacking them and raising their profile and prestige in the eyes of potential recruits? Is it sensible to give gruesome trolls the response they are hoping for? Is it our job to assist the propaganda strategy of ISIS? Shouldn’t we make an informed guess of what they want us to do and then do the opposite?

    How did the invasion and occupation of Iraq create the Sunni insurgency which ISIS has exploited? In hindsight was it prudent to impose a Shi’ite led and dominated government on Iraq’s Sunni communities? If we didn’t foresee the Sunni insurgency, what are we failing to foresee as outcomes of arming Kurdish fighters?

    There are significant Kurdish minorities in Turkey and Syria with troubled relations to the regimes in those countries. How will those regimes react to our arming the Kurdish fighters of northern Iraq / Kurdistan? How could they hurt us, directly or indirectly, if they don’t like what we are doing?

    Where does ISIS get its money? What are our relationships to ISIS’s donors?

    What is a realistic plan for stopping the cycle of violence in Iraq? How will more weapons bring legitimacy to Iraq’s disordered political arrangements?

  32. Just received a letter from my energy provider Red Energy.

    It says here that the average residential customer is meant to see a saving of $145 for electricity and $105 for gas.

    So that means we’re $300 short of the promise.

  34. BB
    We’ve been over to Melbourne for the Christening of granddaughter number 4. Having endured the ceremony which was integrated into as full church service which inclused communion I was more then ever unconvinced of basis and reason of the whole thing. The service was held in a large church and, apart from our family and friends there would have been no more than 20 regulars there – and they were predominately quite old. Not a good sign for the parish.
    Apart from that we had a cracker of a weekend.
    So the Dawn Patrol will resume again tomorrow morning. Again thabks to badcat and mari and others for pitching in.
    Twitter will also get some attention.

  35. BB
    We’ve been over to Melbourne for the Christening of granddaughter number 4. Having endured the ceremony which was integrated into as full church service which inclused communion I was more then ever unconvinced of basis and reason of the whole thing. The service was held in a large church and, apart from our family and friends there would have been no more than 20 regulars there – and they were predominately quite old. Not a good sign for the parish.
    Apart from that we had a cracker of a weekend.
    So the Dawn Patrol will resume again tomorrow morning. Again thabks to badcat and mari and others for pitching in.
    Twitter will also get some attention.

  36. [“Ed Milliband is farked if the Scots break away from England. Labor would be permanently in opposition without the 40 seat advantage they get over the Tories from Scotland.”
    All three of Tony Blair’s terms were with a larger majority than that.]

    In fact there is precisely one election (1964) since the 1920s that would have seen a different PM elected if you took out the Scottish seats.

  37. Rex:

    Not saying we’ll see a DD any time soon, just that the appeal wrt clearing out the nuff nuff Senate detritus must be high for this govt given the Senate numbers as they currently stand in terms of getting legislation through.

  39. confessions

    Is this shot in the locker no. 2 for the MRRT?

    Without paying too much attention I was under the impression that this MRRT repeal bill is different to the last one, and thus couldn’t be a trigger bill yet.

    Could be wrong.

  40. [ Amos Aikman @amosaikman · 21m
    Sounds like Peter Chandler is the NT’s new Deputy Chief Minister, elected by parliamentary wing. Dave Tollner no-show for meeting, I hear.]

    A leader AND deputy leader change in their first term in govt?

  42. Jackol:

    You’re most likely right. I haven’t really taken any notice re the detail beyond what’s been reported in the MSM.

  43. CTar1

    It was the male who suffered the walk of shame.

    Briefly

    I am very much better. The GP said my temperature was now normal and the cough has largely gone. I haven’t had to resort to medication and I spent some of the day sitting in the sun on the verandah, feeling guilty about not being at work especially as I was then feeling pretty good. Yes, I was raised as a Catholic. I junked the religion but kept the guilt.

    It occurred to me though that the colleague who works at the next desk in my faculty was back for the first time in three weeks after having a heart attack and a stent put in. I don’t suppose he’d have seen the funny side if I’d come in ill and given him what I had!

    But thanks again to you and all the others who have shown me such solidarity when I was feeling poor.

    🙂

  44. BB
    So, a terrorist could strap a kilogram of plastic and a detonator onto one of those things, enter the GPS coordinates and then return to his day time job of Australian Post moto postal delivery person?

  47. Confessions
    Bob Gosford in Crikey reports that

    ‘Vowles provided a useful scorecard of the revolving door to the CLP cabinet, which had, since August 2012, included:

    Two chief ministers;
    Four deputy chiefs (now vacant);
    Four treasurers;
    Four education ministers;
    Three business ministers;
    Three employment ministers;
    Three local government ministers; and
    Two health ministers.’

    I guess that they will have to update that list a tad after today.

    They are not certain whether they are ‘a nest of vipers’ (Tollner), a shower, or a shambles.

    IMHO, they combine the three rather well.

  48. JBishop

    “Labor are scaremongering we have no plans for a co-payment, its a hypothetical on a hypothetical…..”

    She also promised there would not be an increase in the fuel excise.

    She must have been out of the room making the tea and bikkies when these decisions were discussed by the MEN..

  50. Dio

    ‘guernsey’ and ‘jersy’ gave their names to jumpers and to breeds of milking cows. But there is not an island called ‘jumper’. Nor is there an island named ‘cardigan’. But there was a lord, thereof.

    Apart from that, it really is time that the provincialist crow eaters stopped whinging about what Victorian AFL clubs do and don’t do.

    If it weren’t for the Victorians, the South Australians would still be doing second rate, minor league footie.

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