Seat of the week: Jagajaga

Covering the eastern reaches of Melbourne, the electorate of Jagajaga has provided a reasonably secure electoral base for Jenny Macklin’s parliamentary career since 1996.

Jenny Macklin’s electorate of Jagajaga was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, and covers suburbs in north-eastern Melbourne from Heidelberg and Ivanhoe out to North Warrandyte in the east. Its present area was mostly in the electorate of Bourke from federation until 1926, which accounted for northern Melbourne including Brunswick and Reservoir; Flinders and Indi from 1922 to 1937, which respectively covered its western suburban and eastern interior regions; Deakin from its recreation in 1937 until 1955, at which time Ivanhoe was absorbed by Batman; and Diamond Valley in its eastern parts from 1969 to 1984. When created in 1984, Jagajaga extended north to Bundoora and had the Yarra River as its eastern boundary, with Eltham and its surrounds accommodated by Casey and Menzies. Its present configuration was largely adopted at the redistribution which took effect at the 1996 election.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party booth majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Jagajaga was in part the successor to abolished Diamond Valley, although that seat’s extension into rural areas further to the north made it a marginal seat that went with the government of the day at each election during an existence that ran from 1969 to 1984. Diamond Valley was won narrowly for Labor in 1983 by Peter Staples at the expense of Liberal incumbent Neil Brown, who would return to parliament in 1984 as member for Menzies and later became deputy Liberal leader (and was more recently a contentious appointment to the panel that appoints ABC board directors). Staples secured the considerably more accommodating electoral territory of Jagajaga in 1984, which had a notional Labor margin of 8.4%, and retained the seat until his retirement in 1996, in which time his closest shave was a 2.6% winning margin amid the Victorian anti-Labor backlash of 1990.

Staples was succeeded by Jenny Macklin, a former researcher and state ministerial staffer and member of the Socialist Left. Macklin retained the seat by 2.7% on her electoral debut and secured slightly stronger margins over the the next three elections. After the 2001 election she rose to the position of deputy leader, a position she maintained until Kim Beazley was deposed by Kevin Rudd in December 2006, at which point she made way for Julia Gillard. Macklin also exchanged her education portfolio for family and community services and indigenous affairs, which retained without interruption throughout the six-year saga of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government. The only change to her workload in government was an exchange of housing for disability reform in December 2011. This continuity has been maintained in opposition, albeit that she relinquished indigenous affairs and families and community services was rebadged as families and payments. In the meantime, Macklin secured her hold on Jagajaga with strong successive swings in 2007 and 2010, respectively pushing her margin out to 9.0% and 11.5%, before a forceful 8.1% swing to the Liberals in 2013 pared it back to 3.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Seat of the week: Jagajaga”

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  1. [The general probability is that Vlad lent some Buks to some half-competent Buk firers who, after a dozen or so successes downing Ukrainian aircraft, cocked it up by downing MH17.]

    I could live with that summary.

    But you don’t have to be of low intelligence, a “conspiracy/tinfoil hat” crazy to consider otherwise.

    No wonder Abbott got elected. So many people are ready to hear only what they want to believe. And not just out there in the Western Suburbs, either.

  2. 4 Corners is sombre viewing for anyone who thinks that George Pell, the Catholic Church heirarchy and their lawyers have a shred of integrity. Utterly shameful.

  3. guytaur

    Kiev barely 24 hours before MH17 claimed Russian fighters hopped over the border and shot down one of their planes. Supposedly the second time the Russians had done so in the previous 3 or four days. All makes for some pretty tense chaps on their side of the fight.

  4. sprocket

    [I can see a stunt coming. ]

    Budgie smugglers on. Surfboard out.

    Dog paddle from Hooke van Holland across to Harwich (Nav no prob – just follow the RO-RO ferry, then on landing a push-bike ride to Islington, skirting around the CoL on foot at a trott.

    Easy-peasy. Tones @ HOME.

  5. Incidentally, the Dutch MSM stories are generally short, appear to be copied from someone’s press release, make some reference to the Australian effort,and to Abbott’s thank you to the Netherlands, but are politely silent on the follow-up which would be, WTF is he doing here?

    He can’t even be bothered to learn how to pronounce ‘Mr Rutte’.

    The direct impact on the Dutch economy of Putin’s sanctions will be a drop of .3% of GDP.

    I imagine that, in private, they do not want Abbott ranting around about doubling up on the sanctions against Putin.

  6. guytaur

    “I can say that Putin’s plane and the Malaysian Boeing intersected at the same point and the same echelon. That was close to Warsaw on 330-m echelon at the height of 10,100 meters. The presidential jet was there at 16:21 Moscow time and the Malaysian aircraft – 15:44 Moscow time,” a source told the news agency on condition of anonymity.

    “The contours of the aircrafts are similar, linear dimensions are also very similar, as for the coloring, at a quite remote distance they are almost identical”, the source added.

    planes looked similar

  7. Warsaw is over 1200 km from where MH17 went down.

    16:21 minus 15:44 means that, as a minimum, and assuming they followed exactly the same flight path, over 500 kilometes in elapsed flight distance separated MH17 and Putin’s plane.

    Questionable assumption: that Putin was going to fly over the Ukraine to get home.

  8. thorn rick

    Yes rt anonymous source. Not followed up because its not true.

    Putin is not a man to keep quiet on foreign powers attempting to kill him from the public person we have seen.

    That’s a crock precisely because Putin has not used it.

  9. guytaur@941


    How many Russian planes that could be mistaken for a Commercial Airliner were flyinging in Ukraine skies.

    In other words what targets would a Ukraine fired missile be firing at?

    As I think it was Dee who pointed out, they had form. They had previously shot down a Russian plane.

    Why would anyone knowingly shoot down a Malaysian airliner?

  10. Regarding Pell and the four corners story, is there any direct contradiction of his RC testimony that might amount to perjury? That was the risk Joh faced after the Fitzgerald inquiry.

    I agree it is very doubtful any Australian AG, Labor or Liberal, will ever have the moral courage to put a catholic bishop on trial. We simply do not have good enough quality people in our parliaments.

    As for the next poll, I do not know what the number will be, but I find it hard to envisage a shift towards Abbott. The news has been consistently bad, exposing his inability to make a policy shift of substance, rather than ideology. Good evening all.

  11. My guess is that Newspoll may be not so peachy – 52/48 or 53/47. The last poll at 54/46 at the high end compared to where to Bludgertrack is now, based on more recent polling. The MH17 and Iraq distractions may also have taken some heat temporarily out of the Budget backlash. Not sure how much attention last week’s shenanigans with Brandis and Abetz will have got traction. Hopefully I’m being too pessimistic and today’s Morgan is a pointer to a new trend…

  12. bemused

    Its not shooting down Malaysian Plane that answers the question. It is what were they aiming for? What was the actual target?

  13. Boerwar

    Add to that visibility was poor. Heavy cloud was mentioned by several eye witnesses at the time and bad weather supposedly why the plane deviated from its intended course.

  14. S

    The political strategy appears to have been to separate Abbott from his ministerial dunderheads, drones and desperates.

    It may work. I don’t know.

    I was thinking only the other day that had Abbott been the prime minister to make a decision whether or not to hold an RC into child sexual abuse we would definitely not have had one.

  15. bw

    Commercial airliners fly higher than military craft as a rule. Its the whole reason it was deemed safe to fly across a warzone at all

  16. What has that got to do with the theory that the Ukraine was trying to down Putin’s plane but cocked up by shooting down MH17?

  17. [Why would anyone knowingly shoot down a Malaysian airliner?]

    M.A.S. may have done one of them over on the ever present check-in luggage weight head-job extra charge bit on a Vladivostok to Lubango direct flight.

    This sort of thing gets me fuming and with a memory like an elephant I might do an ‘Arnie’ on them.

  18. [If you look closely at the top left photo, expand if you are on iPad , you will see a lady at the table…]

    Not on iAnything, so no lady visible. Just more of Abbott’s Blokesville.

  19. Online Shopping in UK predicting to be worth 100 billion pounds…

    about 4% of GDP – with probably more room to go.

    I wonder what the equivalent is for Australia

  20. Morgan trending, ALP increases its lead over L-NP (56%:44%)
    Is it possible for News Poll to give Abbott a boost.
    Given the continual banging on about he man Tony giving it to Putin…. I think it’s the last desperate attempt to change the bad news, Malcolm for PM in 6 months…

  21. [RT @TonyAbbottMHR: Thank you to ADF & AFP personnel involved in Operation Bring Them Home – we are all proud of you]

    F’ing “we”??? Does this Dickh@#d think he’s taken over from queeney?

  22. “@anthonysegaert7: #BREAKING: UK Foreign Office Minister Mark Simmonds resigns. Government says it is unrelated to current crisis in #Israel”

  23. @zoidlord

    Thanks. So plenty more room for retailers to complain that they will be rooined if we don’t bring in laws to stop online shopping.

  24. [sceptic
    Posted Monday, August 11, 2014 at 9:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Morgan trending, ALP increases its lead over L-NP (56%:44%)
    Is it possible for News Poll to give Abbott a boost.
    Given the continual banging on about he man Tony giving it to Putin…. I think it’s the last desperate attempt to change the bad news, Malcolm for PM in 6 months…


    Do you know what the coalition pv was in the Morgan Poll? The Labor pv was 38%.

  25. Darn

    Despite gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP fell to 38% (down 1% over the past fortnight) whilst the L-NP primary also fell, to 37.5% (down 0.5%) ….

  26. guytaur

    [Mike Carlton stars in Mediawatch]

    I’m trying to believe in the ‘stars’ bit.

    Has he got a Mohican style haircut in the last 24 or something like that to make him worth having to pick up the ‘remote’?

  27. Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 1m

    After 4 Corners anyone who had any doubts of Geoge Pells removal from Aus should have those doubts dispelled- seems to be the way they work

  28. “@PaulBongiorno: The SMH was utterly pathetic in the sacking of @MikeCarlton01 if we want that sort of response we would buy the Oz”

  29. Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 2m

    Aus should thank @JuliaGillard and hung parl for the Comm into child abuse . Rudd and Abbott in majority would have “bent ” over to church

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