Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

An uneventful weekly reading on voting intention from Essential Research, aside from a weak result for Palmer United, livened up a little by poor personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:

• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.

• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.

• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.

• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.

After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:

• Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.

• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.

Finally, a couple of links worth noting:

• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.

• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

881 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 18
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  1. [I dunno, have you checked the Coalition Party in the last 10 years?]
    Haha, fair point that. We are just as bad in some ways.

  2. Centre – the upper panel is one of the things I look at on the SP500 – the pink dots can show reasonable entry points – its algorithm generated in my charting program.

    ASX looks current a bit behind the US atm.

    Not prefect, but gets some reasonable results.

  5. Dave

    I don’t think the US will move on rates for at least until the second quarter of 2015.

    The big boys (Golman Sachs/Morgan Stanley) are running the show. They want it, they need it and they manipulate it (the volatility).

    CBA, SUN and TLS report soon 😎

  7. poroti

    “native and non-native”

    Some people must spend their lies looking for things to get indignant about. And some of them post on blogs 😉

  10. On twitter

    [MH17: The search is pretty well over. AFP likely to quit Thurs or Fri – “security risks too high, search rewards too low,” says AFP source.]

  11. poroti you inspired me to “waste” 5 minutes sussing out Ben Pitcher.

    In the process I found another Ben Pitcher who wrote this:

    Sex-Biased Sound Symbolism in English-Language First Names

    Awesome.

    And something by the guy who embodies political correctness gone mad – the Ben Pitcher who did the radio 4 show:

    The cultural politics of being a knob.

    In which he accuses the presenters of Top Gear of being a bunch of pricks. Literally.

    Its actually quite funny.

  12. [ Centre
    Posted Wednesday, August 6, 2014 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    CBA, SUN and TLS report soon ]

    I always look to see if the punters sell the Bank’s after they report – they are such a big part of our market and most market moves will involve them, either positive or otherwise.

  15. [MH17: The search is pretty well over. AFP likely to quit Thurs or Fri – “security risks too high, search rewards too low,” says AFP source.]

    No doubt Abbott will announce this at a presser. Haw haw. Looks like a job for Truss.

  17. kakuru@615

    MH17: The search is pretty well over. AFP likely to quit Thurs or Fri – “security risks too high, search rewards too low,” says AFP source.


    No doubt Abbott will announce this at a presser. Haw haw. Looks like a job for Truss.

    I hope Truss makes the announcement so that it is done in a dignified manner.

  18. guytaur
    [Your accusation is false. I am pro humanity not anti jew.]
    Well double standards are one of the benchmarks by which one can judge and the only State and collective in the world that you are “anti” is the (sole) Jewish State. So I ask you once again, given your self-proclaimed “pro humanity” stance, where are your posts which cry out over the hundreds of thousands of deaths, massacres and decimation of Christian communities, at the hands of Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans, Egyptians, some State players and some terrorist groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza? Do you have a pro humanity position on those which includes a “j’accuse” as you have on Israel. And again, deblonay … has he gone to Gaza?

  19. Mick77@618

    guytaur

    Your accusation is false. I am pro humanity not anti jew.


    Well double standards are one of the benchmarks by which one can judge and the only State and collective in the world that you are “anti” is the (sole) Jewish State. So I ask you once again, given your self-proclaimed “pro humanity” stance, where are your posts which cry out over the hundreds of thousands of deaths, massacres and decimation of Christian communities, at the hands of Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans, Egyptians, some State players and some terrorist groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza? Do you have a pro humanity position on those which includes a “j’accuse” as you have on Israel. And again, deblonay … has he gone to Gaza?

    Yes, fortunately there are no other states I know of that are for one particular regio-ethnic group.

    And none of that stuff going on in Syria or Iraq or anywhere else excuses the behaviour of Israel.

  22. Tomorrow is the national day of mourning for the MH17 victims.

    Can we hope that Abbott will restrain himself, given that a Newspoll is expected this weekend.

  24. [where are your posts which cry out over the hundreds of thousands of deaths, massacres and decimation of Christian communities, at the hands of Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans, Egyptians, some State players and some terrorist groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza?]
    Are these deaths caused by an ally of the west and a fellow democracy? Are they casued by governments we actively support and seek to shield from multilateral consequences? Does the west actively arm these states while they commit these atrocities?

    Your argument boils down to saying that we can’t be upset about one thing because another bad thing is happening somewhere else. I assume if your house is ever on fire you will stand around yelling about how nothing should be done because somewhere out there a much worse fire is burning.

  25. [Can we hope that Abbott will restrain himself, given that a Newspoll is expected this weekend.]
    OPERATION TONY IS HERE TO COMFORT YOU.

  27. So – will the tories have to stand Brian Loughnane aside ?

    How do they try to dodge all of this?

    [ Federal Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane has been drawn into a corruption scandal embroiling the party after an inquiry heard allegations he rubberstamped the use of federal channels to subvert the NSW ban on donations from property developers.

    An email shown at the inquiry suggests Mr Loughnane agreed for donations from property developers – which were banned in NSW in 2009 – to be made to the federal party to subvert the laws.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-hears-that-liberal-party-boss-brian-loughnane-knew-of-developer-donations-going-through-federal-channels-20140806-100vlc.html#ixzz39aevnZBl

  28. CTar1

    I liked this comment about the article

    [ One needs to be extremely highly educated to arrive at such a state of stupidity]

  29. To answer Mick’s strawman argument about the actions of other badly behaved states, like Syria, Egypt and Libya, there is a clear difference. The UK, US and Australia give Israel unreserved (nearly) political and economic support. The UK and the US provide them with arms and ammunition. The other bad state actors are roundly condemned, have sanctions levelled against them and are generally treated as pariahs by the international community.

    If we were to stop lending our support (along with the US, most of all) and condemn the ongoing carnage wreaked by Israel, then Israel would – if it’s claims to be a genuine western democracy are to be believed – quickly rein itself in.

  30. [Dozens of disillusioned Liberal members have approached the Institute of Public Affairs, the free market think tank says, threatening to quit the party because of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s broken promise on the Racial Discrimination Act.

    The IPA has emailed its supporters pleading for cash to fund a $38,000 attack ad which will use the Prime Minister’s own words against him.

    “Tony Abbott has given up but the IPA never will,” the email says.

    The IPA will quote from Mr Abbott’s speech to the IPA in 2012 when he said “freedom of speech is an essential foundation of democracy”.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-party-members-threaten-to-quit-party-after-tony-abbotts-backdown-on-changes-to-race-hate-laws-says-institute-of-public-affairs-20140806-3d8i7.html

  31. @vanOnselenP: I reckon the Hollowmen would have thought about using counter terrorism to coverup an 18C backdown for comedy, but decided it was too silly.

  34. [Dozens of disillusioned Liberal members have approached the Institute of Public Affairs, the free market think tank says, threatening to quit the party]
    Approaching the IPA ? Surely unhappy members should make their feelings known to those running the party………….Oh wait.

  36. [Dozens of disillusioned Liberal members have approached the Institute of Public Affairs, the free market think tank says, threatening to quit the party because of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s broken promise on the Racial Discrimination Act.]

    Dozens! What a catastrophe!

  39. Mick 77

    Just home and very surprised to see you showing your face back here.

    So now you can answer my Baden-Clay question that you ran away from when ranting on about the fact that he was detrimented because key questions were not put to him.

    So I ask again? How do you know what questions were not put to him about his ” shaving cuts”? Betcha can’t answer so you’ll abdicate again.

    And by the way, care to comment on the autopsy evidence not given to the jury …… that Mrs B-C had blunt force trauma to back of head, broken teeth, abdominal bruises ……. she probably sustained these injuries whilst shaving her legs no doubt.

    And what’s your comment at the inadmissable evidence that Mr B-C was for a long time a frequent philanderer, using internet sites for meeting ladies, and that he was not a monogamous hubby who strayed once, as he claimed?

    I’m sure you know that both of theses area of evidence were released on order of he judge the day after sentencing, maybe even to reassure the jurors that they’d done good.

    Gotta go out now ….. maybe you’ll have the honesty to reply and admit that your pro Mr B-C stance was incorrect, or mere trolling.

  40. jules

    Steve Fry must have been reading stuff like that for a segment on Q&I. A pointy blob and a round blob were displayed and he gave two made up words and asked which name belonged to which.

  41. Well the people upset over 18C aren’t going to desert the Liberals for Labor or the Greens. And there’s no one to the right of the Liberals except at the most extreme fringes. Tony Abbott has made a pragmatic decision which, no doubt purely by chance, happens to be the right one.

  42. Don’t you worry too much, John.

    Liberal Party supporters are just a little slow catching up with the rest of us.

    [He warned the Liberal Party base was becoming increasingly unhappy about the Coalition’s decision to break key election commitments.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-party-members-threaten-to-quit-party-after-tony-abbotts-backdown-on-changes-to-race-hate-laws-says-institute-of-public-affairs-20140806-3d8i7.html#ixzz39aknbzqv

  43. Peter van onselen refers to episode of Hollow Men “vulnerable to attack”

    Here is the episode that Abbott must have got his inspiration from re natiional,security. You gotta laugh team Australia

    Check out this video on YouTube:

    http://youtu.be/6GgvtqDrKuk

    Sent from my iPad

  44. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    They just don’t make trolls like they used to. We definitely need a Troll Training Centre – or Troll for the Dole pic.twitter.com/7RT8N4Y5HE

  45. If right wing types quit the LNP then a leadership change to Turnbull may become possible.

    Nervous backbench MP’s will be looking at where the votes are not ideology.

  46. victoria

    Note in the link you gave to Abbott and the IPA, Fairfax say Abbott was interviewed by Uhlmann, he wasn’t it was Michael Brissenden.

    Pagemasters strike again.

  47. [The search is pretty well over. AFP likely to quit Thurs or Fri – “security risks too high, search rewards too low,” says AFP source. ]

    Sounds like the MH17 search was about as successful as the MH370 search.

    Angus Houston really should think twice before accepting his third job for Abbott, whatever it is.

  49. psyclaw

    [And by the way, care to comment on the autopsy evidence not given to the jury …… that Mrs B-C had blunt force trauma to back of head, broken teeth, abdominal bruises ……. she probably sustained these injuries whilst shaving her legs no doubt.]

    What was the legal argument for the autopsy findings not being made available to the jury? It seemed to be a bizarre thing not to enter into evidence.

  50. Kevin One Seven

    Back at #234

    It sometimes happens that courts have weak links (judges who cannot write judgments) which require other judges to fill in.

    There is a story that when Vince Bruce, New South Wales Supreme Court judge, was incapable of writing judgments, there was an offer, by at least one of the judges to provide two judgments, one for one side and one for the other, which he could then choose from.

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