Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. rossmg

    the first reports of the leak, back in June, had another Age journalist fingered as the culprit.

    Of course, one could go all tin foil hattish and suggest that Tomazin’s ‘loss’ of her dictaphone was very…convenient.

  2. Just a random thought that Abbott was not at today’s AFP presser cause he is flying to the Ukraine to take ‘personal charge’ of the MH17 recovery effort.

    Surely not. Surely?

  3. sceptic

    I’m not sure it’s illegal to record someone without their permission in Victoria, as long as you don’t give the recording to anyone else.

    It’s clearly illegal to erase someone else’s recording you picked up in a lost property box and listened to. And then transmitted yourself.

  4. Poroti if you around

    Sorry went to sleep watching the games love your comment re the UK competitors

    Off again today past Oban

  5. [“They knew who it belonged to”

    I’m not sure they did.]

    Samaras listened to it and heard a private conversation between himself and Tomazin. Are you suggesting he couldn’t remember who he had the conversation with or identify the second voice on the recording?

  6. I ask what is the basis of the setting of 25 hours per week of work for the dole. This will force NewStarters to travel for more than three days. Why not 22.5 hours which would be three days? Libereal vindictiveness for sure!

  7. It seems pretty clear that the unauthorised recording was not per se illegal. I do find it rather sloppy practice to leave the recordings on the device for so long. If you have sensitive material upu don’t leave it on an insecure mobile device indefinitely.

  8. I don’t understand why Tomazin didn’t back up and erase the old recordings. Seems very slack. Doctors can use dictaphones but we download them daily.

  9. [The Liberian government has closed most of the West African nation’s border crossings and introduced stringent health measures to curb the spread of the deadly Ebola virus that has killed at least 660 people across the region.

    The new measures announced by the government on Sunday came as Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone struggle to contain the worst outbreak yet of the virus.]

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/07/ebola-forces-liberia-shut-border-crossings-20147280565867953.html

  10. mari

    Be careful of the Oban whiskey. It ha got quite a bite. They reckon something about seaweed being in the process.

  11. [ Dee

    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter”
    ]

    ——————————————————-

    Smug, greedy, well-fed white people have invented a language to conceal their sins. It’s as simple as that. The CIA doesn’t kill anybody anymore, they neutralize people, or they depopulate the area. The government doesn’t lie, it engages in disinformation. The Pentagon actually measures nuclear radiation in something they call sunshine units.

    Contra killers are called freedom fighters. Well, if crime fighters fight crime, and firefighters fight fires, what do freedom fighters fight?

    Carlin

  12. Well, as I said the other day, if the ALP had had the tapes, someone with no political ambitions would ‘own up’ to being the culprit….

  13. 346

    I read in one of the articles on the subject that they had CCTV of the Age journalist loosing the dictaphone and then it very quickly being picked up by security.

  14. Diog

    [Seems very slack. Doctors can use dictaphones but we download them daily.]

    As I said yesterday, so do students. My son regularly tapes his classes (with permission) and always downloads them to another device at the end of the day.

  15. Is Kevin Andrews considering putting on extra Centrelink staff who can count to forty, thought not.

    The paper chase he has generated for his brain fart will piss off business receptionists, will feed into news stories of young fred or mable who have applied for 200 jobs and not got a single interview.

    But most importantly it will prove the futility of his approach to the jobless. Make them apply for 40 jobs a day, will not change the fact – there are too many people looking for work and too few jobs.

  16. rua
    Craig Emerson just suggested that the unemployed bombard Coalition MPs’ offices with job applications month after month.

  17. Rua

    Heard an item on the abc news in Perth with some small business spokesman suggesting that employers might not be thrilled at the prospect of spending their precious spare time sorting through job applications

  18. [The CIA doesn’t kill anybody anymore, they neutralize people, or they depopulate the area. The government doesn’t lie, it engages in disinformation. The Pentagon actually measures nuclear radiation in something they call sunshine units.]

    Can you point me to any examples of the CIA saying they have depopulated an area? Or anyone at all referring to “disinformation” to make lying sound nicer? The “sunshine units” thing is pretty obviously a case of something the Atomic Energy Commission once did morphing into something the Pentagon is now doing.

  19. Employers won’t advertise widely if they know they will be swamped with applications. I’ve seen it before. They use agencies and personal contacts.

  20. “@newscomauHQ: Former speaker Peter Slipper has been found guilty of three counts of dishonesty for using cab charges to visit wineries.”

    Is the AFP going to go after wedding expenses now?

  21. William
    There is truth in Sunshine units claim… From WiKi

    The strontium unit was formerly known briefly as the sunshine unit,[1][2][3] a term promoted by the United States Department of Defense until public ridicule brought about its disuse. (Among the sources of this outcry was a George Carlin performance, released on the CD Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics, during a passage on governmental euphemisms for dangerous or unethical activities: “The Pentagon has actually begun measuring nuclear radiation in something they call ‘sunshine units’!”)

  22. Driving at about 3:30pm I heard one of the worst I/Vs I’ve heard for years.

    Abetz the prick, the country member. What an ars*hole.

    He was defending the work for the dole and 2 job applications per day.

    They are playing a small grab on ABC news broadcasts, but it sounds fairly benign when heard out of context.

    He was asked several times about various difficulties and stupidities about the job applications, to which he gave typically dismissive Abetz answers, including that fulfilling dole requirements builds character.

    But the worst answer was right at the end. Two job applications every single day is easy …… just. One in the morning and one in the afternoon.

    The bastard was totally dismissive about the many practical issues ….. What about those not online? Cost of10 stamps per week to someone on 6 months of no income? Cost of bus fairs to deliver applications, interviews? etc

    It is really hard to decide who I dislike most out of this unfeeling, incompetent, hypocritical rabble.

    OH just commented about today’s Newstart performances by Abetz and Pruneface …… “Well there’s another big group they’ve alienated ….. Good O!”

  23. Let’s hope Qantas doesn’t give “the world’s leading statesman” another chance to posture again (from Crikey’s Plane Speaking blog):

    [It isn’t clear for how long Emirates and Qantas will be saying different things about the missile risk over Iraq, but for the time being Qantas is going to fly where its business partner fears to go, right across territory contested by the ISIS insurgency…

    What part of “these missiles can destroy targets as high as 70,000 feet” doesn’t Qantas understand? The airline has been asked to share its superior wisdom on the capabilities of the surface to air technology that Emirates fears has fallen into the hands of the ISIS militants.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/07/28/qantas-to-fly-where-emirates-fears-to-go-but-for-how-long/

  24. Rex

    I was just musing about the fact that despite your many posts criticising Shorten’s responses to all and any issue, he’s doing well in polls.

    Whilst he usually displeases you, he must be pleasing quite a few more of us.

  25. [There is truth in Sunshine units claim… From WiKi]

    The page is badly in need of an edit. None of the three citations provided say anything about the Department of Defense. The one that attributes a source is the one I mentioned – the Atomic Energy Commission. It is perfectly clear that the true source of the claim as stated and widely propagated on the internet is this guy:

  26. “@CliveFPalmer: The @PalmerUtdParty won’t let new work for the dole measures pass @AuSenate. Australia needs a real plan for growth to create jobs #auspol”

    So alienating voters for no reason 😀

  27. To be fair Pegasus, the National Greens position of condemning both sides is another example of what we see so much of elsewhere — false equivalence.

    The oppressor and the oppressed do not stand equal. The battered spouse who raises her fist or a blunt object against her abuser does not deserve condemnation and anyone who said that ‘both parties should be condemned’ would rightly be dismissed as an offensive fool. Likewise, tHe folk in the Warsaw Ghetto were entitled to do whatever they could to resist the genocidal assault on them by the Nazis. In this country, the indigenous in some places fought back against the European colonists — and they were entitled to do so.

    Gaza is an open air prison controlled by Israel, who are the occupiers, and who, every few years punctuate their more mundane brutality with murderous assaults using high tech weapons. Until Israel launched a land invasion they had suffered no casualties at all and now the toll stands at roughly 1200 Palestinians, of which about 72% are civilians, and about a third children. Israel has lost 43 of which all but a handful are soldiers. The IDF has admitted firing upon schools and UNRWA shelters. It has levelled whole neighbourhoods using weapons supplied by our allies.

    We here in the belly of the beast have no business condemning both sides equally. One side is committing systematic war crimes and is completely ignoring its obligations as an occupying power. The Palestinian side is firing off weapons that in the last 14 years have killed about 28 people, and none this year. Had the Israeli regimes in that time shown a determination to abandon the occupation and normalise relations, there can be little doubt that these missiles would have been halted.

    The reality is that the Israeli regimes don’t see a cessation of hostilities as in their political interest, so they regularly find some pretext for resort to disproportionate violence in order to reforge the blood line separating the Arabic and Hebrew speaking communities.

    I’m not the slightest bit surprised that our position provoked anger and disgust amongst those appalled at the IDFs conduct. To be giving aid and comfort to Israel by condemning Hamas for fighting back really is shameful.

  28. Re Guytaur @389: Clive Palmer talking good sense on this occasion.

    So Tony’s maybe off to lead the charge in Ukraine. Maybe he’ll be kidnapped by the bad guys and held to ransom, like Richard the Lionheart. We coukd pay the separitists millions to keep him.

  29. I always found Carlin’s act to be too self-consciously curmudgeonly to be funny. Whatever Carlin did, Bill Hicks did it much, much (MUCH MICH MUCH) better.

    As for the Sunshine Unit, it would make some sense that a measure of radioactive activity might have some reference to the biggest source of radiation in our solar system (ie, the star we call the sun). People will bend over backwards to see a conspiracy where there clearly isn’t one.

  30. Rex

    [Is he more popular or less hated?]

    I am no big fan of Shorten in particular but you have to admit that Labor is not a shambles like the LNP are.

    Abbott is absolutely loathed by people and with good cause.

    I know of no one who likes the man.

    As an aside I am increasingly impressed with Ed Husic.

    Watched some of the NSW ALP Conference on APAC yesterday and Husic is really impressive.

    He is measured articulate and comes across as really genuine in his approach.

    Being Muslim may be a problem for some outside of the Party but as an alternative to the product of ten pound poms we have now he would run rings around him.

  31. The idea that “sunshine unit” is deceitfully propagandistic is true enough as far as it goes. But it happened in the mid-1950s, and had nothing to do with the Pentagon.

  32. Steve777

    [So Tony’s maybe off to lead the charge in Ukraine. Maybe he’ll be kidnapped by the bad guys and held to ransom, like Richard the Lionheart. We coukd pay the separitists millions to keep him.]

    Love it!

  33. absolutetwaddle

    There is absolutely no need to use the sun. There has long been screeds of units for measuring radiation. Using the sun would be pretty misleading . One hell of a difference between copping some beta radiation on your skin and gamma radiation.

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