Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Diog

    Head Office staff aren’t Opposition staff, because their positions aren’t influenced by whether or not the Labor party is in government.

    To be really technical – and, as I’ve said before on this, Noah Carroll is really careful with his language – HO are ALP staff, paid for by the ALP, whereas Andrews staff are Parliamentary staff, paid for by the taxpayer.

    The former continue in their positions regardless of whether the party is in government or Opposition.

  2. Z

    Fair enough. Though that makes it look like Andrews would be horrified and defamed if it was his own staff but he doesn’t know and doesn’t care and wouldn’t be surprised if Head Office did it.

    I can’t believe The Age are now arguing that it was illegal to listen to and send on the tape but think it was fine to record private conversations without the participants knowledge.

  3. “@olliemilman: Justice Hayne says “events have overtaken” his previous directions. Full court hearing is vacated #hc157”

  4. One of ‘The Age’s repeated ‘concerns’ has been that the staffer/s involved would work in the Premier’s office if Andrews were to be elected.

    Kosmos is very unlikely ever to be in that position, being very firmly entrenched at HO for some years, so one hopes ‘The Age’ is reassured on that point.

  5. “@olliemilman: Plaintiff is able to amend the claim to unlawful detention. Statement of claim deadline 4pm 31 July”

  6. K07 @302

    In case someone asks a question about the Crikey Tips and Rumours tidbit ?

    [ we hear that all is not well with the AFP and the deployed forces:

    The AFP members deployed to Europe are not International Deployment Group (IDG) members as reported. The IDG are not to be used for this deployment, rather members from the wider AFP, even though these members are neither experienced nor trained for overseas deployments.]
    http://pbxmastragics.com/2014/07/27/voluntarism-vs-compulsion/comment-page-1/#comment-145302

  7. K17 #302

    I’d say he didn’t want to be the one to flag the possibility that not all remains will be recovered – so the Fed was sent to deliver that message.

  8. Diog

    I know the disctinction seems a bit moot, but it is very real. ‘The Age’ should certainly be aware of it, even if ordinary people on the ground aren’t.

  9. ABC News ‏@abcnews 5m
    Andrew Colvin of AFP now speaking to the media. He says we must be prepared for possibility that not all remains will be recovered. #MH17

  10. Diog

    particularly in the light of Tomazin’s reassurance to Ballieu that she wouldn’t use their conversation in any way and that she’d forget it had ever happened.

    You’d think that would mean either not recording the talk to begin with or erasing the records immediately afterwards, not hanging on to them for nearly six months.

  11. [ ABC News ‏@abcnews 5m
    Andrew Colvin of AFP now speaking to the media. He says we must be prepared for possibility that not all remains will be recovered. #MH17 ]

    But … but .. but … Tones promised to bring them home!

  12. [Andrew Colvin of AFP now speaking to the media. He says we must be prepared for possibility that not all remains will be recovered. #MH17]
    Was it EVER not going to be thus?

  13. Z

    Kosmos said there were lots of different recordings of a range of people including himself in the tape.

    It’s not just Bailleu who was shafted.

    Take home message is you can’t trust the reporter or her organization to act ethically. They are obviously very lax about confidential information and have no compunction about secretly recording conversations.

    Journalists are the most unethical professionals I’ve ever come across.

  14. guytaur

    How desperate is Morrison to avoid policy being tested by the HC?
    It’s only time before the whole lot gets tossed out as illegal / unconstitutional

    “Questions of lawful use of govt migration power won’t go to a full court. Govt counsel keen to know about timing. Hayne says not long #HC18”

  15. [ Andrew Colvin of AFP now speaking to the media. He says we must be prepared for possibility that not all remains will be recovered. #MH17

    Was it EVER not going to be thus?]

    Crikey! As if they could be. Was it the Lockerbie crash where 10 bodies were never found?

    Abbott’s went into overdrive too soon.

  16. Zoomster

    Can’t have the Age alerting people to facts on this. They haven’t finished with indignation yet.

    BTW The photo in the BorderMail the other day was lovely. You lucky duck – enjoy every moment in Canberra. You well deserve it.

  17. Did Abbott send out Deputy Commissioner Colvin to dump the bad news story while he hid? Typical Abbott bastard act.

  18. sceptic

    Real desperate. No amendment option with the Senate. Labor is the most friendly the LNP has got on the issue.

  19. [The repeated meme of ‘The Age’ was that someone who would be in the Premier’s office should Andrews win had been privvy to the tapes.
    That’s still untrue.
    What Andrews denied was that he or any of his staff had had anything to do with the dictaphone.
    And that’s still true.]

    I don’t think this is a major issue, but the reports are that Andrew’s CoS was given a USB recording of some of the conversations, listened to at least one of them and participated in a discussion about what to do with the device before it had been destroyed, so I’m not sure your summary is quite accurate.

  20. Why was the tape destroyed?

    They knew who it belonged to and should have returned it to her.

    Destroying it would seem, to this non-lawyer, to be criminal damage.

  21. [ABC News ‏@abcnews 5m
    Andrew Colvin of AFP now speaking to the media. He says we must be prepared for possibility that not all remains will be recovered. #MH17]
    Brave Sir Robin sends a lackey out to deliver unpleasant reality. What an unsurprisement.

  22. Why was the tape destroyed?
    Not ” tape” but SSD

    Because it was recorded without permission or the knowledge the person (s) on it, the information contained wouldn’t be the property of the journalist if they hadn’t asked permission to make it.

    Destroying the digital recorder is another matter, easily rectified by buying a new one.

  23. Shellbell
    Greens speakers treated hostilely at Gaza protests

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/27/greens-targeted-boos-and-shoes-angry-pro-gaza-protests

    —————————

    Greens NSW Senator Lee Rhiannon and NSW Greens Upper House MP David Shoebridge released a joint media release on the 10 July (before the NSW state labor conference).

    http://davidshoebridge.org.au/2014/07/10/media-australia-must-end-the-silence-on-palestine/

    The media release included:

    [” Rocket attacks from Gaza must stop. These attacks cannot be used to justify the overwhelming and brutal collective punishment unleashed by the IDF.

    …“The Israel and Palestinian conflict is not one of equal players. There is an oppressor and there is an oppressed.
    “We condemn and ask that all acts of violence by both Israelis and Palestinians cease.

    “The Greens will continue to support all those working to end the blockade of Gaza and for the withdrawal of the Israeli military from illegally occupied Palestinian territories.]

    Also included is a graphic showing how Palestine has shrunk in area between 1946 and 2012 as well as its fragmented nature.

  24. (tin foil hat on) Has the CCTV footage of the recorded being “lost” been made public? Was it a “dead drop” for the journo to a source to disseminate a recording she could not touch with a bargepole? (tinfoil hat off)

  25. Sceptic

    [Because it was recorded without permission or the knowledge the person (s) on it, the information contained wouldn’t be the property of the journalist if they hadn’t asked permission to make it.
    ]

    Kosmos was not in a position to know whether or not the recordings were made with the permission of Bailleu.

  26. I should add that its pretty hard to argue you destroyed the recording because it wasn’t made with permission when you have disseminated it yourself.

  27. Families SA exec who lied to the public about the latest sex abuse scandal resigns. Rankine should go as well.

  28. Just received our home and contents renewal. Going to cost nearly double what it did 2 years ago, I assume mostly because of all the weather related claims in recent years as the sums insured haven’t changed much.

    The sooner those listening to the deniers realise CC has a cost and no amount of sticking heads in sand will alter this the better. Prevention is always cheaper than cure.

  29. Viewed from afar, The Age’s indignation over the lost recorder and who listened to what seems just a little too righteous.

    Journalists spend most if their life dealing with people who only tell half he story.

    I suspect that in this case we might be getting only a portion of the story from The Age.

    They were so sure of their facts when they dropped the bomb but they didn’t name anyone. Alarm bells rang for me right then.

  30. [Activist group GetUp! says it is the victim of tactics “almost too dirty to believe” after one of its anti-coal videos was yanked by YouTube over what GetUp! says are fake copyright claims.

    The group says it posted an animated video – Don’t trust this company with our Great Barrier Reef – to YouTube on June 7 to draw attention to plans by Indian-based company Adani for a massive coalmine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/getup-fears-dirty-tricks-after-youtube-pulls-video-20140728-zxots.html#ixzz38k00CFxb

  31. @Peg/336

    The whole copyright nonsense is out of control, now political parties and their supporters can use it to their advantage.

    But Internet is big.

  32. Dio

    I understand the SSD contained other recordings, including ones of those involved with its destruction.
    The only one incompetent & operating illegally here is the journalist.
    The SSD contained other recordings & only a Total Idiot would leave them on the device.
    One that didn’t appear to have a PIN code….
    Plus it appears they were backed up. Better the Age look at an inside job

  33. I agree The Age is getting a bit too transparent in its jowl-quivering outrage. Every day they have at least one editorial or opinion piece sounding off about how MAD they are about it. I’m not sure the public really cares. Even The Herald Sun is largely ignoring the story, and that’s saying something.

  34. Dio

    Forgot to add, it’s plausible the delegates destroyed the whole SSD as it wasn’t possible to delete the illegal recording of them as data could be recovered.hence destroy the lot

  35. Tinfoil hat time. Could The Age be running with its angle to deflect attention from a transgression of its own.

    The leaked conversation was months old. Who else had heard it? Who might have had a copy of it?

    Not unknown for a reporter to play a recording to a colleague. Sharing a digital file can be done in the blink of an eye.

  36. Just read that article on the Greens’ poor reception at pro-Palestine rallies this weekend. I felt very sorry for the poor guy at the Brisbane rally who was booed by the crowd, drowned out, then had his microphone switched off merely for saying that Hamas has been condemned by the UN and that it was his opinion Hamas didn’t represent the crowd. Wrong on the latter point apparently!

    In Melbourne a Green senator had her microphone snatched away for daring to suggest that Hamas ought to be disarmed as part of a long-term ceasefire with Israel.

    Frankly disgusting behaviour. There you have it folks, if Hamas and Islamic Jihad are too much for you, don’t bother showing up at a pro-Palestine rally. You’re not wanted.

  37. [Answer the phone in the middle of the night to the horror. Decry the murders. Speak out decisively to say justice will be done. Round up all the other world leaders to do the same. Send servants into the fields to ensure that we can honour these souls with decent burials.

    Show me a world leader who wouldn’t have done precisely what Abbott did. Even the gormless ones made an attempt.
    Now, Prime Minister, let me speak to you privately for a moment. I absolutely applaud your achievements, but it is time to move on. You’ve had a fatherhood moment. Now it’s time to return from the world stage where no one is electing you but you can generate some glory]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/jenna-price-tony-abbott-should-get-back-to-work-and-stop-focusing-on-mh17-20140728-zxmqt.html#ixzz38k6KfAZS

  38. [The only one incompetent & operating illegally here is the journalist.]

    sceptic Agree with that and Rua might be on the ball re ‘the drop’ to someone who could use the stuff on the tape, except that the wrong person picked it up.

    Andrews should do a ‘Howard’ and be really strong on why the journo was taping private conversations. Fight back firmly.

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