Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Patrick Bateman@192

    Question – isn’t “work for the dole” a very short hop away from outright communism?

    I.e. if the private sector is failing to produce good outcomes, the state steps in and pays people flat wages to work even if there is no demand for that work.

    Sounds very un-Liberal to me.

    yeah nothing says communism quite like sub minimum wage labour!

  2. Hamas’ offer of a 10-year ceasefire.

    So unreasonable!

    [Hamas is offering Israel a 10-year truce if it accepts 10 conditions. The Jerusalem Post reports, based on an Israeli Channel 2 newscast.

    1. Withdrawal of Israeli tanks from the Gaza border.
    2. Freeing all the prisoners that were arrested after the killing of the three youths.
    3. Lifting the siege and opening the border crossings to commerce and people.
    4. Establishing an international seaport and airport which would be under U.N. supervision.
    5. Increasing the permitted fishing zone to 10 kilometers.
    6. Internationalizing the Rafah Crossing and placing it under the supervision of the U.N. and some Arab nations.
    7. International forces on the borders.
    8. Easing conditions for permits to pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque.
    9. Prohibition on Israeli interference in the reconciliation agreement.
    10. Reestablishing an industrial zone and improvements in further economic development in the Gaza Strip.]

  3. […the Prime Minister organises, effectively, a small army to move into Ukraine.]

    Eleven unarmed men would have to constitute one of the smallest armies in the history of human civilisation….

  4. [And Russia has noticed, too, first blasting Abbott’s criticisms as “unacceptable” and then — government sources say — subjecting Australian diplomatic communications to intense surveillance.]

    Yep – one can imagine Putin saying “Find out if this guy really IS dipsh*t crazy.”

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  5. Zoomster

    You gave fallen for the cover story. The eleven unarmed men are in fact eleventy eleven highly trained armed to the teeth operatives fresh from their latest triumph, stopping the boats.

  6. kevjohnno

    nothing much has changed. My son (in his gap year) was harrassed about his clothes, hair, attitude etc – having demanded he turn up to interviews with them in full formal gear, they then offered him a series of field work positions, even though he had provided them with a medical certificate saying that he couldn’t do manual labour.

    Each time they asked him to front up for one of these jobs, he did, worked for half a day until his back gave out, and then went back to his doctor’s, who said he shouldn’t be doing such work…

    When I went to pick him up from one of these jobs, he was still trying to work – lying down on the ground and reaching up to tie whatever the plant was onto its support. The employer was so impressed by his efforts and attitude he said he’d take him back in an instant if his back improved, so it wasn’t a lack of work ethics holding him back…

  7. Zoomster at 203:

    The 11 unarmed Australian invading force brings to mind the classic Peter Sellars movie “The Mouse that Roared” in which Grand Fenwick invaded and defeated the USA.

  8. Apologies for all that extra gumph. I mucked up cut and paste (obviously) but thought I had managed to delete all the rubbish…

  9. [177
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Say what you like about Bolt, but when he sticks his tongue in the furrow, he doesn’t miss one single dag.]

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  10. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 10:36 am | PERMALINK
    Ah, fun…a visit by the Jehovah’s.

    I quote scripture at them, they quote scripture at me, I tell them St John was probably sleeping off a bottle of retsina when he dreamed up Revelations….]

    About twenty years ago I got to know a Jehovah’s Witness (a woman in her late 50s/early 60s)who called at my door. I told her straight that I didn’t share her views but out of sheer curiosity was prepared to find out a bit more about why the JWs believed the world would soon end. She called at my home on numerous occasions after that and to her credit she was very willing to answer all my questions and patiently explained to me the reasoning and scripture behind her beliefs. They were interesting conversations but I never did arrive at the “truth” as they like to call it.

    I got to admire her for her openness and honesty and I asked her one day just when she thought the world would end and got the standard answer – only God knows that. I then parried with the question – do you think it will be within the next ten years (this was twenty years ago) to which she was non committal. So I said what about twenty years and to my surprise she said that if it had not happened by then she would feel her beliefs were wrong and she had “wasted her whole life” on them.

    She moved to Bendigo soon after that and I have never seen her again. But I sometimes think of her and feel sad about how disillusioned she must have become as those twenty years passed and nothing happened. Her two daughters were also involved in the JWs and had at the time been recently married. Both of them had vowed not to have children until the old world ended and the new one arrived with the return of Christ. Unbelievable, but true.

  11. Zoom

    Almost a world record attempt on the ‘Not able to be displayed characters’ front.

    😀 Shall I call you My Say from now on? (*going into hiding now*)

  12. [rossmcg
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 11:41 am | PERMALINK
    Zoomster

    Too many words. Kick Putin Out.]

    “Operation Punt Putin”?

  13. [Has Milne tackled the problem of job search in a small town? I spose the Colaition will say “then move”, a la Turnbull.]

    I feel sorry for the small businesses in our area. Bet they hang ‘no job’ signs on the window before long.

    Does the policy include the employer having to sign somethng to say the person had applied?

  14. Labor obviously leaked the dictaphone tape.

    [Victoria’s Opposition has admitted that ALP staff listened to and then destroyed a journalist’s dictaphone that had been lost earlier this year.
    ]

    I still think the Age secretly recording conversations is very dubious. I’d be pissed off if I was the Labor guy who found he’d been secretly recorded.

  15. zoomster@220

    BH

    The jobseeker has to supply a contact name for the job application, so Centrelink knows who they spoke to.

    and if they applied online, through an agency, what then ?

  16. Citizen

    Yep,that’s it.

    And I expect that later today, after Morrison has seen off the high court, he will be put in charge.

    After all, it would just be an extension of operation sovereign border. Just not our border. But that sort of detail has never bothered Morrisson..

    I wonder the ADF has any maps of Ukraine … Try google

  17. Zoomster

    First Dog is brutal. I often wonder how pollies feel when they see stuff like that.

    Or are they like all those sports people who never read the paper?,

  18. In a couple of years the job networks will be overworked, underpaid, stress of centerlink staff will be overwhelming again (if not already).

  19. [“… as dumb as a bucket of bolts”]

    Player One Can we give that a capital ‘B’. Bolt sure is one.

    CTar Thanks A bunch of women riled over injustice is a formidable foe.

  20. BK

    [CTar1
    I remember the Rawleigh’s van well as an eight year old.]

    Me too and their antiseptic ointment fixed just about anything.

    Great memories!

    The man who came to our door had been in WW2 and had been gassed in the course of it. He was a lovely bloke.

  21. Ctar1

    Yes we all know about the sports people who never read the paper. I used to know a guy who covered cricket at international level. The blokes who never read the paper always seem to know what he had written about them

  22. More than three years later and this farce is still clogging up our court system.

    [CHILD pornography charges against former Labor MP Bernard Finnigan have been downgraded — but his lawyers say the case against their client is an abuse of the legal process.

    As first reported on advertiser.com.au’s The Pulse live blog this morning, prosecutors today filed new, less severe charges against the former Labor Party MP in the District Court.

    Finnigan is now charged with one basic count of obtaining access to child pornography, and one basic count of attempting to access child pornography.]

  23. [In a couple of years the job networks will be overworked, underpaid, stress of centerlink staff will be overwhelming again (if not already).]

    Besides being totally unreasonable, the whole thing is a terrible waste of time – the poor unemployed have to find and apply for 40 jobs a month (of which there might be 5-10 if they are lucky that they are qualified for or interested in), the job service has to administer this whole ghastly process for no great reason at all, and employers will have to sift through myriads of applications from people who don’t even want the job they are offering. Whole things sounds like a great big brainfart.

  24. [Victoria’s Opposition has admitted that ALP staff listened to and then destroyed a journalist’s dictaphone that had been lost earlier this year.}

    The Age are well and truly on the warpath here. This could yet destroy either Labor’s chances in November or Daniel Andrews even earlier. As the dictaphone has been stolen and then destroyed, presumably some criminal charges will be laid at some stage.

  25. MTBW

    [had been in WW2 and had been gassed in the course of it. ]

    Or WWI? (if WWII he must have been an ‘Innisfail’ graduate – poor bastard)

  26. BK

    I can’t remember the name of our one either but he was very personable and making an honest living. He also got to have a chat with all the ladies of the house.

    I am in Sydney and there was a store in the city called Winns (hope I have the spelling right}.

    All the stay at home Mum’s would buy clothes in the City and then the man would come to the front door once a week to collect the time payment for them.

  27. Looks like the Queensland Police Commissioner is under the orders of Newman “suggesting” the gangs will come back if the High Court rules in favor of gangs.

    Dude, the gangs left.

  28. MTBW
    Now I remember we also had the Watkins man.
    I also remember bread deliveries and ice deliveries by haorse and cart. My granddad used to follow them to pck up dung for the veggie garden.

  29. The never-ending paean of praise from the collective media for Abbott and the Coalition Government re MH17 continues to astonish me. Even Abbott-haters like Andrew Elder concede that “he’s done a competent job”. Of course, what is coming out of the typewriters and mouths of the Murdoch cheer squad is completely over the top. And then there was Michael Stuchbury’s drivel on Insiders yesterday where I believe I actually heard him say that MH-17 had completely turned things around for Abbott and, unless anything else goes seriously wrong before the next election, he’ll sail through to a second term!!

    Let’s look at what the Government has actually done re MH-17:

    1. The PM and others have publicly expressed grief and dismay (TICK: but this is surely “Government 101” and any political leader should be able to do this competently.)

    2. Abbott has ranted and railed publicly against Putin and Russia in a way that seems to me to be a reprise of his rhetorical style when, as Opposition Leader, he tore into the Gillard Government. The idea that this ranting and railing has had any impact on Putin’s behaviour is a wet dream of the Murdoch cheer squad. For the rest of us, the PM’s anti-Putin rhetoric of the past week and a half can be seen as good, solid political grandstanding which has probably had no international effect at all or, possibly, has been a bit counterproductive to Australia’s interests (particularly any farmers or businessmen who wish to try to sell things to Russia in the next little while).

    3. A UN Security Council resolution sponsored by Australia was passed. It’s not clear to me exactly what this achieved: like all UN resolutions, it’s a bit of a flagship to promote good behaviour rather than having any enforceable impact on the ground. But, to be fair, this looks like the closest thing to a discernable achievement.

    4. A large number of public servants, AFP officers and perhaps military personnel have been sent to Holland, the Ukraine or somewhere. It’s not clear what all of them are doing over there, but some good might come of it in due course.

    5. Abbott has spent a lot of time on the phone talking to other world leaders. The cheer squad would have it that he has been leading them towards a more firm, decisive approach. This is far from clear, because I cannot see that anybody anywhere has taken any particularly decisive action yet against any party: particularly Russia. Maybe I’m missing something here…????

    6. Abbott has given a lot of public briefings , as he did about MH-370. It seems to me that, since the advent of 24 hr news channels, Prime Ministers and Premiers have given more and more of these sorts of briefings during disasters/crises at shorter and shorter intervals: whereas in the past, these have been left to military or civilian personnel or perhaps the relevant minister. Some of the briefings have included comments about human remains that I felt were in pretty poor taste, as I also found the silly slogan “Operation Bring Them Home”.
    Apart from the risk of featuring this sort of guff, I think these endless briefings by senior pollies in these situations are not a terrific idea because quite often there isn’t a great deal to report, but pollies feel that they always have to be seen to be “doing something”. Yesterday on Insiders, Angus Houston was terrific at explaining how it was all a bit of a waiting game at the moment. Abbott doesn’t seem able to provide that sort of a briefing.

    So what does all of this add up to? From my perspective, not a hell of a lot. A bit of ramped-up ranting and railing against Russia which probably didn’t achieve much but probably won’t hurt Australia either because we don’t really matter to Russia. A successful Australian resolution at the Security Council resolution which doesn’t happen every day (and, of course, wouldn’t have happened if the Coalition had had its way with our bid to join the SC). And a bit of community grieving led by the mourner-in-chief, which is fine.

    This was not 9/11 or the Bali bombings. Nobody on the plane was being targeted because of their ethnicity, culture or religion, their government’s support for Israel or any such thing. The plane was shot down my mistake by some extremely reprehensible Russia-sponsored insurgents. Russia deserves some criticism for having made what happened possible, but I really can’t see why that couldn’t have waited until the investigation of the crash was complete.

    And, for me, the big question continues to be the one of why the relevant authorities felt it was safe for the plane to fly over the region.

  30. BK

    We had the bread cart and the Milkman to!

    We must stop this we are giving away our ages – as if some haven’t already some on here haven’t guessed it yet 😆

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