BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

This week’s poll aggregate finds early signs of a shift in favour of Tony Abbott and the Coalition in the wake of the MH17 disaster.

Three new polls this week provide an early indications of a slight revival in the Coalition’s fortunes after the MH17 disaster and, some might claim, the carbon tax repeal. However, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate result differs only slightly from the one I published a week ago, for two reasons. The first is that a data entry error led an undercooked Labor lead last week of 53.5-46.5, which should have been 54.1-45.9. The second is that this week’s polls only imperfectly capture the effect of a news event which Australia woke up to on Friday morning. The earliest of the three was Nielsen, conducted from Thursday to Saturday, which showed no change to the recent trend in having Labor leading 54-46. Then came this week’s Essential Research sample which was surveyed from Friday to Monday, and caused the fortnightly rolling average to move a point in the Coalition’s favour. Most timely of the three was Monday night’s ReachTEL poll, which was the Coalition’s best result from the pollster since late March. After a fairly flat period since the budget, this makes next week’s Newspoll of particular interest.

Going off a corrected result for last week, this week’s seat projection has the Coalition up one in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, but down one in Queensland. The last federal poll we will ever get from Nielsen provides this week’s only new contribution on leadership ratings, and it’s enough to produce an upward tick for Tony Abbott for the first time since the budget, and also to narrow the gap on preferred prime minister. Bill Shorten meanwhile maintains a slow descent that has been evident since a spike in the wake of the budget. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

967 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. S777

    [I’m sure that can become the plot of a bad science fiction movie ]

    Right along the lines I was thinking – “They’ll come back as supergecko’s and wipe out life as we know it”.



  2. [ I’m sure that can become the plot of a bad science fiction movie – “The Attack of the Radioactive Space Lizards” ]
    staring with the rocket stage that ‘burned up’ over Australia..

  3. Dr Bonham,

    Your inputs are one of the reasons I visit this site but disagree with you on Abbotts positives. Could I suggest, like the Daleks, Abbott has no empathy (sorry mercy) and no matter how programmed (sorry scripted) will fail when confronted with intelligence. But, like the Daleks, he may well be a negative ( well I guess not for the BBC) for some time yet.

  4. Hockeys biography underlines just how unprepared the Tories were for government. They spent six years in opposition, the first three in denial and the second three screaming abuse, without doing any work on policy

    Then they found themselves in government.

    Their problems are exacerbated by the fact that even allowing for my bias, I have never seen a less talented cabinet in my 40 years as a voter.

    When you have people in important policy areas like Hockey, Pyne, Dutton, Cormann, Truss, Joyce … How do these people even get endorsed, let along elected, let alone elevated to the ministry

    I don’t care if I think they are wrong but none of them are even capable if arguing their case.

    I really do worry about what damage they can do before they can be dislodged. Despite their failings they have a big majority which will take some reeling in .

    Richard Flanagan is right. Two terms of the Tories is an unhappy prospect

  5. [ Why doesn’t he just go a sit on the back-bench and see what happens? ]
    Because he’s still as dumb as a box of hammers #utegate #rainman

  6. Ctar1

    Turnbull is a puzzle. He obviously lacks Keating’s courage.

    He also knows that the Tory ruling clique would rather be in opposition than turn to him.

  7. Not sure if anyone’s made this point, but in Simon Benson’s story today in the Tele he said that Abbott had “stiffened Obama’s spine.”

    Being published in a Murdoch rag, written by a Murdoch hack, about how glorious and brave Tony Abbott really is… and having ample experience of Murdoch’s Fox News in the USA… Obama will put 2+2 together and get the picture: the coward Abbot heckles only from afar, plus has publicly, and rather seriously insulted the US President.

    Obama won’t give a rat’s arse that Abbott didn’t actually write the story, or make the “spine stiffening” claim directly. Obama doesn’t need formal proof that the Tele is Abbott’s personal megaphone. We’re not talking legal eagles in a defamation case here. We’re talking mano a mano.

    Abbott, in using Australia’s crassest,most repugnant newspaper, The Daily Telegraph, to boast about his diplomatic and leadership prowess, and to spruik how he told that uppity US President where to go, and when, and what to do when he got there has potentially dealt himself out of any serious dealings with the US as long as Obama is President.

    It’s only been a couple of months since he was over there protesting that he was the best friend America ever had. Now he’s bragging in a Murdoch toilet paper how he told Obama where to get off. All from the safety of Canberra, of course.

    I dunno, but I think it’s a terrible move if the Yanks decide to take this seriously.

  8. He’s gone f**kin’ mad:

    [PM Tony Abbott deploys troops to eastern Ukraine to protect Australian Federal Police officers
    PRIME Minister Tony Abbott has ­confirmed troops will be deployed to eastern Ukraine to protect Australian Federal Police officers working on the crash site investigation.

    The Saturday Telegraph understands they will be deployed through the ­United Arab Emirates, which was the operating base for Australian ­deployments to Afghanistan. ]

    And what’s with this “PM Tony Abbott” style splashed everywhere?

  9. The guardian is serialising a new book on Murdoch by Nick Davis, the journalist who broke the phone hacking scandal wide open

    First episode on their site,worth a read.

  10. psyclaw @ 947

    [He says that this is poisoning our society, just as happened in preWW2 Japan,]

    Wasn’t there a poll a week or so ago in which nearly 30% thought the government was still not being hard enough on asylum seekers? So the poisoning seems to be well under way with both the LNP and Labor complicit. I suspect this race to the bottom will only end when the international community steps in and things will get far, far worse before that happens.

    […One must be very apprehensive as to what actions Morriscum can conjure up and implement, to further elevate the level of antagonism he promotes …… actually torture ASs perhaps (legal torture of course).]

    It’s already happening? Psychological torture has been a feature of AS policy almost from the beginning and no doubt there has been physical violence too, albeit only ad hoc. Morrison may have ramped it up, but it began under Howard.

  11. bludgers

    is it possible the incompetent punk abbott with his grandstanding over ukraine and slap at russia could provide a war in response.

    he is wrecking the australian economy (talk to any retailer about when current decline began), he wants to wreck health, education, national and international climate measures – and now russia, always way above his weight

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