BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

This week’s poll aggregate finds early signs of a shift in favour of Tony Abbott and the Coalition in the wake of the MH17 disaster.

Three new polls this week provide an early indications of a slight revival in the Coalition’s fortunes after the MH17 disaster and, some might claim, the carbon tax repeal. However, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate result differs only slightly from the one I published a week ago, for two reasons. The first is that a data entry error led an undercooked Labor lead last week of 53.5-46.5, which should have been 54.1-45.9. The second is that this week’s polls only imperfectly capture the effect of a news event which Australia woke up to on Friday morning. The earliest of the three was Nielsen, conducted from Thursday to Saturday, which showed no change to the recent trend in having Labor leading 54-46. Then came this week’s Essential Research sample which was surveyed from Friday to Monday, and caused the fortnightly rolling average to move a point in the Coalition’s favour. Most timely of the three was Monday night’s ReachTEL poll, which was the Coalition’s best result from the pollster since late March. After a fairly flat period since the budget, this makes next week’s Newspoll of particular interest.

Going off a corrected result for last week, this week’s seat projection has the Coalition up one in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, but down one in Queensland. The last federal poll we will ever get from Nielsen provides this week’s only new contribution on leadership ratings, and it’s enough to produce an upward tick for Tony Abbott for the first time since the budget, and also to narrow the gap on preferred prime minister. Bill Shorten meanwhile maintains a slow descent that has been evident since a spike in the wake of the budget. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

967 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. Lefty E. and. MTBW

    Yep. It looks like one of Morriscum’s minions has carefully read HeydonJ’s comments at the HC Directions Hearing on Wednesday, including reading between the lines.

    It’ll be interesting to see if the case now lapses since the 2 main issues, imprisonment on the ship and refoulement to Sri Lanka appear now to be non-issues.

    Morriscum seems to have chosen to retreat rather than wait for the HC to order him to do so.

    Interestingly I just heard Abbott say “well we did stop the boats for 6 months”.

    Now it might be dawning on them that if they are compelled to act 100% lawfully, stopping the boats is not so easy.

  2. [Because, of course, the Stone Age did immediately precede the modern electrical era.]

    Of course it didn’t, and we would have just fired up all of those steam engines that we have lying around…

  3. 904

    A few thousand years of history missing there. Stone age implies it would render metal objects unusable, which it would not.

  4. “Civilization will be thrown back to the Renaissance” just doesn’t have the same threatening sound to it.

  5. Libertarian Unionist

    Waiting patiently for their chance of world domination our new overlords post the storm will be the Amish .

  6. Quite surprised to see this as top storie in the Cyprus Mail.

    [Australia is considering tougher laws to stop animal rights activists secretly filming on farms and abattoirs and airing the vision in an effort to protect a multi-million dollar livestock trade, a move rights groups say will hide abuse.

    South Australia state is furthest along with a draft law before parliament that would impose heavy fines and a three-year jail term for secretly recording animal cruelty images.

    Seven U.S. states have introduced “Ag Gag” laws to make it illegal to take photos or videos at farms or slaughterhouses without the operators’ permission. U.S. rights groups say the “Ag Gag” laws violate the constitutional rights to free speech.]
    http://cyprus-mail.com/2014/07/25/australia-seeks-to-stop-animal-rights-groups-with-tough-video-laws/

  7. @Raaraa/912

    I hope Labor isn’t conned with having a Former LNP member being in the Labor Party as a spy/informant..

  8. No idea how Qld Labor party works but it’ll be a tad odd coming from the guy who triggered Newman’s big loss in Stafford.

  9. [ And surely Israel has the right to expect recognition of their right to exist. ]

    Interesting comment from a few pages ago.

    So, Israel need an acknowledgment of its right to exist.

    Within what borders?

  10. I am having a lovely stopover during me and my Mum’s trip to Victoria. I am staying with the wonderful PBer, Lizzie.

    All I can say is anyone who tangles with Lizzie tangles with Puff The Magic Dragon, and this dragon will singe their hides. 🙂

  11. Meanwhile, there has been another air disaster over Africa, largely ignored by the Anglo-Saxon press.

    France is sending troops into the crash site, which were already in Mali.

    [Le Monde.fr – Vol AH 5017 : des soldats français arrivent sur la zone du crash

    Les débris de l’appareil, avec 51 Français à bord, ont été identifiés au Mali. Il n’y aurait aucun survivant, selon le gouvernement, qui privilégie la piste des « conditions météorologiques ».

    http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/07/25/l-epave-du-vol-ah-5017-d-air-algerie-a-ete-retrouvee-au-mali_4462551_3210.html
    ]

  12. Ministers to join pro-lifer who believes the ‘pill kills’ at World Congress of Families

    [Women who take the pill choose partners who share a similar genetic profile causing them to lose interest in sex and become more likely to be the victim of violent assault and murder.

    It is just one of the unconventional theories of Dr Angela Lanfranchi, an American pro-life campaigner who also pushes the debunked link between abortion and breast cancer.]

    [Dr Lanfranchi is set to speak at next month’s “World Congress of Families” event in Melbourne where she will share the stage with federal Social Services Minister Kevin Andrews, and a number of Victorian Liberals, including state Attorney-General Robert Clark and anti-abortion campaigner and Victorian upper house MP Bernie Finn.]

  13. [I am having a lovely stopover during me and my Mum’s trip to Victoria. I am staying with the wonderful PBer, Lizzie.
    ]

    Yes, also pass my regards to Lizzie!

    It is amazing you are having a mini tour of some of PB’s favourites in that part of the world, zoomster and Lizzie!

  14. [Women who take the pill choose partners who share a similar genetic profile causing them to lose interest in sex and become more likely to be the victim of violent assault and murder.
    It is just one of the unconventional theories of Dr Angela Lanfranchi, an American pro-life campaigner who also pushes the debunked link between abortion and breast cancer.
    ]

    A little loony, but at the end of the day, condoms are best for both contraception and prevention of disease, with almost zero risk of side effects.

    If it is not on, it is not on!

  15. The Age’s political editor give Morrison a serve

    Costly, cruel, futile: the price of Scott Morrison holding 157 asylum seekers on floating prison

    [Now answer the question: what more has the government achieved than if it had opted in the first instance for what Morrison calls the “backstop measure” of taking the asylum seekers to Christmas Island before consigning them to indefinite detention on Nauru or Manus Island? Would the deterrent have been any less?

    What drove this insanity is not difficult to fathom because Scott Morrison kept reminding us of it in the final week of Parliament, even as he taunted Labor for being “too weak” to stop the boats.]

  16. CTar1

    Interesting.

    My ABC ap seems to have Morrison, MH17, a Qld Lib wanting to be Labor, Euthanisiaists killing kids, and an SA road rage case.

    With Air Algérie buried under all that stuff.

  17. The three air accidents in close time proximity also got a mention on 24 during the day – they had someone on to discuss that more people have been killed so far this year on commercial passenger A/C than in all of last year (210 I think was last years number).

  18. Re Slothy @925: the purpose of the Government’s asylum seeker policy is to trick racist bogans into voting for radical market reforms that will hurt them and their families.

  19. Steve777 @ 929

    Ah, okay. I’d thought Abbott’s and Morrison’s chest beating on the issue was a small dick syndrome thing.

  20. [Meanwhile, there has been another air disaster over Africa,]

    Sailors say big waves come in threes. Let’s hope this is the last for a while.

  21. Bishop has now changed her lyrics.

    The task at the crash site is now ” difficult” whereas yesterday it was “gruesome”.

    Is it possible she is learning, or has there been a focus group and new instruction from the boss, Peta.

  22. [ Re Slothy @925: the purpose of the Government’s asylum seeker policy is to trick racist bogans into voting for radical market reforms that will hurt them and their families. ]

    [ Steve777 @ 929

    Ah, okay. I’d thought Abbott’s and Morrison’s chest beating on the issue was a small dick syndrome thing. ]

    Both make sense on the available evidence.

  23. Darren – The Desktop/Laptop ABC Web takes notice of where you’re from. Possibly the ‘Ap’ version.

    That the ‘black box’ has been found now story 3.

    Who knows! (I could speculate that a cookie keeps track of what stories you read and serves and sorts based on that).

  24. Richard Flanagan speaking sense on Lateline.

    Even with his comments about Japan in WW2 and Australia with AS.

    It starts with public figures making out some people are less and that anything is then justified.

  25. In political terms, the most significant development of the week was the Press Gallery’s consensus view that the Federal budget is a dismal failure. Even the Oz concurred. That is a damning indictment for the LNP government.

  26. Rossmore

    [that the Federal budget is a dismal failure.]

    HoJo copping a flogging but no one mentions Cormann (he’s in the US).

    Very strange that both would have O/S trips when they should he here trying to convince people that the ‘know’ what they’re doing. Clowns, both of them.

  27. Tony Abbott’s turn back the clocks government. Sleepwalking on cuban cigars and petty history wars while the country goes backwards.

  28. Rossmore – Cormann just detailed, I guess, to try to fulfill a promise HoJo made to his mates in the Finance Industry.

    Hopefully, absolutely none of it will get past the Senate.

  29. Satellite full of sexually experimental geckos adrift in space, Russia loses control of mission

    I’m sure that can become the plot of a bad science fiction movie – “The Attack of the Radioactive Space Lizards”.

  30. Guytaur

    Snap.

    I was going to comment about Richard Flanagan but thought I’d wait till tomorrow. But since you started it now, here goes! 🙂

    Flanagan’s book, Narrow Road to the North (aprox words) is about the Burma railroad, inspired by his dad’s involvement. He recently went to Japan and met one of the cruelest guards, “The Lizard”, now an old man. His conclusion was that the man was not evil; he was a product of evil.

    Flanagan then said that particular public figures in Japan had poisoned the society for decades before the war, and created the soldiers and their cruelty.

    Although the interview was about Flanagan’s book, he then totally changed the subject to contemporary Australia, and spoke passionately about the poisoning of our society by the public figures who are defining ASs as non-people.

    He says that this is poisoning our society, just as happened in preWW2 Japan, and that such a poisoned society will pay some huge cost a little further down the line.

    It seemed to me that he was referring to both major parties, but clearly he was moved by the current happenings orchestrated by Morriscum.

    One must be very apprehensive as to what actions Morriscum can conjure up and implement, to further elevate the level of antagonism he promotes …… actually torture ASs perhaps (legal torture of course).

    I fantasise about a future RC which crucifies Abbott, Morriscum, and the 3 Star Whatever for their Operation Sovereign Borders travesties

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