BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

This week’s poll aggregate finds early signs of a shift in favour of Tony Abbott and the Coalition in the wake of the MH17 disaster.

Three new polls this week provide an early indications of a slight revival in the Coalition’s fortunes after the MH17 disaster and, some might claim, the carbon tax repeal. However, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate result differs only slightly from the one I published a week ago, for two reasons. The first is that a data entry error led an undercooked Labor lead last week of 53.5-46.5, which should have been 54.1-45.9. The second is that this week’s polls only imperfectly capture the effect of a news event which Australia woke up to on Friday morning. The earliest of the three was Nielsen, conducted from Thursday to Saturday, which showed no change to the recent trend in having Labor leading 54-46. Then came this week’s Essential Research sample which was surveyed from Friday to Monday, and caused the fortnightly rolling average to move a point in the Coalition’s favour. Most timely of the three was Monday night’s ReachTEL poll, which was the Coalition’s best result from the pollster since late March. After a fairly flat period since the budget, this makes next week’s Newspoll of particular interest.

Going off a corrected result for last week, this week’s seat projection has the Coalition up one in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, but down one in Queensland. The last federal poll we will ever get from Nielsen provides this week’s only new contribution on leadership ratings, and it’s enough to produce an upward tick for Tony Abbott for the first time since the budget, and also to narrow the gap on preferred prime minister. Bill Shorten meanwhile maintains a slow descent that has been evident since a spike in the wake of the budget. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

967 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  3. matt31@643

    Agree with you. A lot depends on the timing of the Big Event.

    The Falklands War certainly saved Thatcher while the Queensland floods did nothing for Anna Bligh’s government at the election where Labor was slaughtered. Again, Labor had been in office a long time so time for its demise was probably already sealed.

    Along with many I am happy to know Abbott and Bishop – after a life-time in politics – basically know how to be politicians.

    It is the hypocrisy which always gets to me.

    It was not so long ago that Abbott, Bishop – aided by the Murdoch press criticised virtually every move Labor made on the overseas front, from getting a seat on the Security Council as to advice as to where time should be sent overseas.

    As such, that they should attempt to bask in the ‘glory’ of it all is a tad off putting.

    The Operation Bring Them Home is just plain tacky.

    We are still two budgets and many, many sittings of the Senate away from the next election.

  4. zoidlord

    Yes, they got a pledge out of Rudd and I think Gillard re same sex marriage. For a small non mainstream group they command far more attention of Labor leaders than would be reasonable.

  5. The Sri Lankans are coming to the mainland.

    The is the government conceding they were on very weak ground legally, and forestalling some of the embarrassment of going to the High Court.

    My guess is their own legal advice was “refouling these asylum seekers to Sri Lanka is a breach of Australian law – bail out now”

    thats the second time in a week Morrison has had to backflip, following the permanent visa award to that onshore arrival.

    The Minister for Immigration has a bad habit of acting unlawfully.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ocean-imprisonment-to-end-for-157-asylum-seekers-on-customs-boat-with-all-to-be-transferred-to-australian-mainland-20140725-3ck0q.html

  6. [lefty e
    Posted Friday, July 25, 2014 at 11:58 am | Permalink
    IDF bombs a UN school in Gaza following UN vote.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0724/632725-israel-gaza/

    What a pack of unmitigated a*seholes.]

    Probably but Hamas are also a pack of unmitigated a*seholes

    ‘Earlier, Mr Ban had expressed alarm after rockets were found in a vacant UN school in Gaza for the second time in a week, warning in a statement that “those responsible are turning schools into potential military targets, and endangering the lives of innocent children”.’

  8. I’ve been reading the latest Guardian article on Le Tour. Why are so many comments being moderated?????

  10. lefty e @655

    I agree they are fearful of how the High Court would respond – good on the Lawyers who brought on the case.

    Abbott and Morrison will have to swallow deeply and hold their noses.

  12. Its going to be a bad four weeks for Abbott. AS policy fail before a Newspoll comes out.

    Cracks appearing in the Great Leader” theme.

    Sisunity is death stories in the media :eviil:

  13. well, they’re headed for Xmas island, which makes it a boat arrival right there.

    “Turns out piracy and refoulement are illegal dude, who knew???”

  14. kevjonno

    Hamas is not killing hundreds and targeting hospitals and schools.

    The hamas rocket attacks while a war crime at least are random and killing few.

  15. Labor needs to be fast out of the blocks today to comment on AS.

    Get the maximum political milage out of weak and incompetent Abbott government.

    This was a promise as big as the “carbon tax”. No doubt its broken now. “Stop the Boats” has failed

  17. BK, that’s a great link, I’ll be sharing it around.

    Like Professor Monro, I had the opportunity and pleasure to work at the University of Southampton, and lordy, she’s right about the differences between the UK and Australian Universities’ interaction with industry.

    I spent hours and hours working alongside developers in some of the biggest and most well-known (a couple of them infamous) international tech companies, and learnt so much about what questions to ask. This is not something that you can learn in a lab, you need more practical experience than you can get through study alone.

    Part of the reason for this is purely proximate, as there is a real concentration of cutting edge high-tech and design companies in the south of England (such as this). But a larger part is that universities and companies alike understand the synergies of working together on “hard” problems. Prof Monro nailed that side of it – Australia does outstanding basic research, and fails to capitalise on it.

    And photonics is awesome! (but not my field 🙂 )

  18. Ducked over to the GG to find their take on the breaching of the Great Wall of Morrison protecting us from brown people. This is what they have reported so far

    [crickets……tumble weed]

  20. Gary

    I mentioned earlier that the Age were sticking by their story that Daniel Andrews office was involved in the matter, and that he had questions to answer

  21. Guytaur: Hamas are targeting hospitals and schools as places to fire missiles from because 1) there is a chance that Israel might baulk at bombing a hospital or a school and 2) because if Israel does go ahead and bomb, this will produce a propaganda victory.

    Those on PB who have a go at Israel all the time would do well to make the effort to become a little better informed.

  23. I should have added that the Age representative said that their information is from a very reliable and reputable source

  24. Guytaur

    I’m not supporting or condoning the actions of Israel but think it needs to be recognized that Hamas always uses civilians as human shields and uses hospitals, schools etc at arms depots and launching sites with the aim of either avoiding retaliatory strikes or if struck sparking the outrage seen here. They are highly cynical a*seholes as they are actually trying to get innocents from their own people killed to win the support of western media & voters.

  27. kevjonno

    Not as much as Israel asserts. As we have seen they have attacked a UN run school.

    You claiming the UN is firing rockets into Israel?

  28. meher baba@671

    Guytaur: Hamas are targeting hospitals and schools as places to fire missiles from because 1) there is a chance that Israel might baulk at bombing a hospital or a school and 2) because if Israel does go ahead and bomb, this will produce a propaganda victory.

    Those on PB who have a go at Israel all the time would do well to make the effort to become a little better informed.

    Perhaps the anger is proportionate to the deaths being inflicted on the other side?

    750+ Palestinian deaths
    handful of Israeli deaths

    Therefore most anger directed at Israelis.

  29. Nothing changes the fact that this all started with the murder of an Israeli teenager. As unacceptable an act as that was, Israel was not able to pin that act on Hamas. But did that stop them? No. They immediately began a campaign of air strikes on Gaza. In other words, they responded to a criminal act with an act of war, a completely disproportionate response by any measure.

  31. Gaza is a frickin open air slum/prison. Only one side caused those conditions – Israel. So don’t give me the even-handed crap.

  34. [Nothing changes the fact that this all started with the murder of an Israeli teenager.]

    You have an infantile view of history. I know 10 year olds who have a deeper understanding than you.

  35. Shellbell

    Dont know about defo cases, but the Age journos got into a spot of bother hacking into Labor data base

    [Three journalists from The Age and a former councillor of the City of Melbourne have escaped jail after admitting hacking an Australian Labor Party electorate database in the lead-up to the 2010 Victorian state election.

    Reporters Royce Millar, Nick McKenzie and Ben Schneiders appeared in the Melbourne Magistrates Court on Thursday where they all admitted gaining unauthorised access to restricted information on the database. The court heard the journalists wished to avoid formally pleading guilty and risking a conviction because they intended to work overseas.]

  37. Victoria, Andrews seems pretty confident the allegations are BS. If they are true he deserves everything coming his way. If not The Age will deserve their just desserts. I just hope Andrews hasn’t been blind sided by his own people.

  38. kevjohonno

    Israel is in the wrong. The world is reacting to that fact.

    Israel wants that to stop it can stop committing warcrimes.

  40. Gary

    Andrews was firm today in stating that the allegations in the Age were wrong, and that this matter was an internal problem of the Liberal party. You would hope that Andrews would be quite sure about this before making such a statement

  42. [Guytaur: Hamas are targeting hospitals and schools as places to fire missiles from because 1) there is a chance that Israel might baulk at bombing a hospital or a school and 2) because if Israel does go ahead and bomb, this will produce a propaganda victory.

    Those on PB who have a go at Israel all the time would do well to make the effort to become a little better informed.]

    Well I suppose if Palestine was allowed to have their own state, they might house such things conveniently in military barracks.

    As Bemused points out, the massively asymmetrical death rates, along with the massive civilian death count of one side tell you all you need to know.

    Those who imagine they’re well informed might like to engage with those data and think more deeply and critically.

  43. Matt31
    [Nothing changes the fact that this all started with the murder of an Israeli teenager. As unacceptable an act as that was, Israel was not able to pin that act on Hamas. But did that stop them? No. They immediately began a campaign of air strikes on Gaza. In other words, they responded to a criminal act with an act of war, a completely disproportionate response by any measure.]

    I think it was 3 teenagers, and Israel killed about 15 people in the search for them in the West Bank.

    Israel, as a nation, is basically suffering a kind of delusion that if they keep killing Palestinians, the Palestinians will give up fighting… It is a truly bizarre logic. It looks like they have never read Machiavelli:

    [If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared.]
    So, they would actually need to totally destroy the occupied territories in a similar way to how the Allies destroyed Germany and Japan. This kind of half-arsed killing of a few hundred here and there will never work.

    ALTERNATIVELY they could work towards a peaceful resolution, which would most likely involve them giving back land they currently occupy

  44. matt31@679

    Nothing changes the fact that this all started with the murder of an Israeli teenager. As unacceptable an act as that was, Israel was not able to pin that act on Hamas. But did that stop them? No. They immediately began a campaign of air strikes on Gaza. In other words, they responded to a criminal act with an act of war, a completely disproportionate response by any measure.

    It was actually the murder of 3 teenagers on the West Bank, not Gaza. And it was quickly followed by a particularly gruesome murder of a Palestinian youth by Israeli extremists in revenge.

    Crimes by citizens of either side are not a valid excuse for war.

  45. Just so I’m sure on what we are arguing about here do Guytaur, Left E, Mat31 & Bemused think Hamas aren’t a pack of a*seholes or just that they aren’t as big a*rseholes as Israel?

  46. Code for the indian govt told him to f off!!

    [The immigration said the government has acted in accordance with its international obligations. He now says the government held meetings with the Indian government in New Delhi and agreed to bring the 157 people to Australia.]

  50. Gary

    Yes they do say they have their source, but I guess they dont believe they need to reveal them. They believe Daniel Andrews has questions to answer

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