Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  1. mikehilliard

    It’s the days of The Rodent all over again. In his first term he defunded and gutted renewables research. Thus forcing the world leading scientists we had in the field to go overseas.

  2. slothy

    Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2014 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    ruawake @ 607

    The thing that is frightening the crap out of electricity generators and retailers is the increasing number of people asking “can I disconnect from the grid?”.

    In some states there is a standing charge for water and sewerage which is billed even on vacant land. How long before the electricity utilities, networks and retailers demand a similar deal on all properties?

    with the Liberals privatizing power companies the Liberals will need to do something like that to keep their corporate sugar daddies in the profit margins

  3. Abbott’s backbench just voted in favour of $1.3 billion medicine hike. Not one marginal seat MP would speak on it over two days

    This kinda answers jeffmu’s question. The Dutton was getting splattered by none of his mates actually backing his legislation with a speech, it was ALP members ad nauseum calling him a ponce.

    Sick of getting spanked he pulled out the gag, but Burke spanked him again, until the Head Prefect Pyne restored order.

  4. I’ve been blogging on another site. You can pick the employees at Menzies House, Liberal HQ and IPA 4:30 – 5:00pm they all disappear

  11. A quadruple OMFG !!! The 2014 Godwin award has just been wrapped up.Watching Jon Stewart’s segment “A moment of Zen” which features some public figure saying strange things. A Harvard professor just said.

    The demonization of carbon dioxide is like the demonization of the poor Jews under Adolph Hitler.

  13. Martin B
    In this case peak does not refer to quantity but to slope. Without working it out – so I may be incorrect – I reckon the peak of a resource matching your description would occur at the start of production.

  16. Centre
    Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2014 at 7:04 pm | PERMALINK
    So what’s the latest?

    According to Sky News, the carbon tax repeal legislation will be passed tomorrow.

    That will keep the shock-jocks chattering happily until elderly listeners phone to ask when they will get their $550.

  17. Centre

    According to Sky News, the carbon tax repeal legislation will be passed tomorrow.

    Boy have they had that tape on high rotation over the last week or so.

  18. zoidlord@659

    Not sure, the article suggests there is some loophole for the government to reduce rebates to GP’s therefore forcing them to hit the patients up for the difference.

    Others here might know more about how this works.

  21. Just watching ABC news –

    Who’s the nut that wants to abolish federal education and health departments? He also wants to raise the GST to 15%.

    The voters will love that 😯

  22. Brandis would be proud.

    An incoming Liberal senator has set out a radical libertarian program in his maiden speech, calling for the GST rate to rise to 15 per cent, federal health and education departments to be abolished and for the immediate sell-off of youth radio station Triple J, with the rest of the ABC to also be privatised if it fails to address perceived left-wing bias.

    Former Liberal party deputy director James McGrath also defended people’s right to make homophobic comments, as well as “hurtful and bigoted and stupid and dumb things”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-james-mcgrath-makes-radical-call-for-gst-rise-privatisation-of-leftbiased-abc-20140716-3c1j8.html#ixzz37cZvGFkn

  27. The ABC cuts are showing.

    Experts have suggested the Government could feasibly bypass the Senate to introduce some elements of the Medicare GP co-payment.

    Advice from the Parliamentary Library suggests the Government could use its regulatory powers to reduce the Medicare rebate paid to doctors by $5.

    This could force GPs into a position where they have to charge patients to make up the difference.

    However, if the Government did reduce the rebate using regulations, the Senate would still have the power to move a motion of disallowance.

    Well der, did you notice what happened to FoFA last night?

  29. OMG desperate times seem to call for desperate measures.

    Former prime minister John Howard will return to Parliament House to advise a select group of Government MPs on how to successfully prosecute economic reform.

    Mr Howard has accepted an invitation to address the Modest Members group – a gathering of economically dry-minded Liberals.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/24470906/john-howard-to-tutor-modest-members-about-economic-reform-over-parliament-house-dinner/?source=wan

    And Modest Members for the economically dry Liberals? Is Wilson Tuckey a founding member?

  31. Political Alert ‏@political_alert 22m
    The Senate has agreed 35-31 with a Greens motion to disallow the Migration Amendment (Offshore Resources Activity) Regulation 2014 #auspol

  32. 😆

    Former prime minister John Howard will return to Parliament House to advise a select group of Government MPs on how to successfully prosecute economic reform.

  34. Political Alert ‏@political_alert 16m
    Disallowance of Migration Offshore Resources Activity Regulation invalidates visas of non-citizens working in offshore oil and gas #auspol

  35. Political Alert ‏@political_alert 12m
    Labor Senator Sam Dastyari has given notice to introduce another disallowance motion on the Government’s FoFA regulations #auspol

  38. mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2014 at 7:10 pm | PERMALINK
    zoidlord@659

    Not sure, the article suggests there is some loophole for the government to reduce rebates to GP’s therefore forcing them to hit the patients up for the difference.

    The article says they could do it by regulation, however that regulation could be disallowed by the Senate.

    Doing it this way would lead to a nightmare. The regulation applies as soon as it is gazetted so doctors would lose the $5 immediately. It would only cease to have effect when (if?) the Senate disallowed it. In the intervening period some doctors may charge patients to maintain their income while others might not, hoping it would be disallowed.

    If Hockey wants to cause maximum angst and confusion, do it this way.

    One other thing, the $5 reduction in the medicare rebate also applies to patients who are not bulk billed (and who receive a Medicare rebate) , so all patients are $5 worse off each time they see a doctor.

  41. One way or another, we need to switch to renewables in the (not so) long term if we want to keep the lights on and the wheels turning, even if the climate deniers actually turned out to be right:

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/10/28/when-will-australia’s-coal-run-out/

    Australia’s coal runs out in about 90 years at today’s level of production, or half that time if growth is factored in. Numbers for the world as a whole aren’t too different.

    But then, today’s political and business leaders will have long since left the stage, so no problem.

  42. mikehilliard

    In his former life.

    Boris Johnson adviser James McGrath sacked in race row

    AUSTRALIAN political strategist James McGrath is “gob-smacked” after losing his job as chief political adviser to new London mayor Boris Johnson over allegations he had made a racist comment…………..Mr Johnson announced on Sunday that he knew Mr McGrath was not racist and that his comment had been “taken out of context and distorted”, but Mr McGrath still had to go because keeping him as his top political adviser would provide ammunition for people who wanted to question Mr Johnson’s own attitudes to racial issues.

  43. What is so hilarious about the invitation given to Howard for his guidance is that a very,very short while ago he criticized the budget.

    Rabbott told the media, though he respected Howard,he was no longer in politics and his opinion was not relevant to politics ‘today’.

  44. From the Guardian… Christ! How many times have we read a version of this?

    The carbon tax repeal bills have still not been voted on in the Senate. A vote is now expected {tomorrow}. The bills will pass with the support of the crossbench.

  47. Gawd blimey!

    One of the most significant budget measures was the reinstatement of a biannual increase to the fuel excise, which would have added $2.2 billion over four years to the Government’s coffers.

    But that measure has been killed off by the withdrawal of any support from the Greens, who judged it was pointless to negotiate with the Government.

    Mr Richardson says that decision “surprised” him.

    “I’m not clear you’d be calling them the Greens at the moment,” he said.

    “They sound a bit more like the Australian Motorists Party in terms of their response.”

  49. James McGrath???
    They (LNP) know how to pick them.
    Reportedly a former deputy director of their party, no less.

    Just one of the many Liberal candidates whose background received zero scrutiny from the press during the campaign.

    No wonder Abbott was a headliner at the Australian’s masturbatory 50th birthday bash.

  50. McGrath was sniffing around the seats of Fisher and Fairfax hoping to get a safe (ha with hindsite) seat for himself. He was rejected.

    So Newman got him the Senate job with Bruce McIvor not very happy.

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