Seat of the week: Lyons

The central Tasmanian electorate of Lyons covers some of the poorest and least ethnically diverse territory in the country, and it recorded the nation’s biggest anti-Labor swing at the 2013 election.

Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.

Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.

Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Seat of the week: Lyons”

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  1. It’s curious that the Australian is choosing to wrap itself in sentimentality with its 50 year celebration thing. Surely if it wanted to get more readers it would focus on accurate, balanced and measured reportage of current affairs, not rehashing the political scandals of the last half century, a time before a large number of potential readers were even born, much less voting.

    And getting Rupe in to be interviewed on his views about the governance of a country he isn’t a citizen of? Total self indulgence. WTF are they thinking?

  2. Just Me

    Having watched the interview, I’m more inclined to think that Murdoch does not follow a political party so much but wants that political party to represent his views – which stands for small government as its basis.

  3. Oh dear, bemused, you are SO transparent.

    As soon as you started enthusing about your candidate – who I have no doubt is excellent – I knew you were working up to using your praise as ‘proof’ you weren’t misogynistic.

  5. [
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink
    ….

    Unless politics runs to the Media/Insiders script they get hostile and confused.

    They are so hopeless at their jobs.
    ]
    What struck me this morning was Shorten having to point out to the “insiders” that ask stupid question that Abbott is in no position to threaten an election of any kind.

    These insiders are supposed to have knowledge to classify Liberals press release into bulldust and perhaps not bulldust.

  6. zoomster@953

    Oh dear, bemused, you are SO transparent.

    As soon as you started enthusing about your candidate – who I have no doubt is excellent – I knew you were working up to using your praise as ‘proof’ you weren’t misogynistic.

    Not the first time I have done so on PB.

    But of course I couldn’t care less what you, confessions, William or anyone else think. 😀

  7. Having watched that interview, Murdoch’s papers will always push for his beliefs – if they want to keep their jobs!

  8. Hi bludgers. I checked on line for starting time for World Cup soccer. It said 3:30 am. I thought it was 5 am. Does anyone know what time it starts – ie east coast time?

    Thanks.

  12. connie

    Murdoch’s papers are still pretty powerful, not as powerful as they once were and getting weaker, but can still shift voting intentions.

    Look who we have as PM for proof of that?

  17. Everyone at soccer today were saying their heart was with Argentina but their head was with Germany.

    Best summing up of the day — Argentina has Messi. Germany has a football team.

  18. These insiders are supposed to have knowledge to classify Liberals press release into bulldust and perhaps not bulldust.

    Not Mordor hacks on there this morning

  19. Centre

    I support Argentina. I’ve just arrived back from Malaysia and between the flight and watching the World Cup I’m barely functioning.

    Di Maria looks like he won’t be fit to start for Argentina and he has been just as important for us as Messi has been. If he is fit to play, I think we can win but we will be struggling without him.

  20. Z

    Argentina has Mascherano, Aguero and Higuan in addition to di Maria so they have got plenty of talent besides Messi. He is so exceptional that people forget how good some of the rest if the team is.

  22. The German people already enjoy Europe’s largest economy.

    Now they’ve got Diogs tipping Argentina.

    There is no god 🙁

  26. I, who have no interest in soccer, had no real interest in any of the results, but by the end I somewhat fancied the Dutch, based on their comparatively good carbon footprint and relatively liberal social policy.

    Then they won a match on penalty shootout, which is ridiculous so the sympathy evaporated. Ditto Argentina on the same basis. So I guess it’s the Germans, who do pretty well on renewables even if they do have a right of centre government.

    Ok … enough soccer silliness from me.

  27. Poroti re Fox
    ___________

    Last year in the USA I read a survey which found that the most bigoted and right-wing Repubs(mostly Tea Party loons) watched Fox amost all the time
    They have their heads filled with Murdoch nonsense

  28. Bemused….re misogeny
    _________
    You can’t win that argument
    Your innocent promotion of a good candidate is judged to be false ansd self-serving,,,sad stuff

    With a jury comprising Confessions,Zoomster and others you’ll be found guilty before the hearing

    is there a kind of feral feminism now emerging ?
    worrying ?

  29. deblonay

    Years ago an episode the Simpsons nailed. A Fox News helicopter in the episode had a sign on its side which read “Fox News .Not Racist .But No.1 With Racists.”

  30. Re Murdoch and the Herald Sun/Melb
    ________
    For days the Hun has been running a shock/horror story about the CFMEU and it’s grip on the VIC ALP and the threat to civilizatioin as we know it

    ( Trying to help Napthine ???)On
    page after page…. with horror photos of”unionists” fit to scare the kids and the oldies

  31. Bemused
    [Jennifer will be one of the few in Parliament from a Scientific/Technical background, which is a pleasant relief from the normal collection of lawyers, staffers and TU officials.]

    [With those qualifications she would never have a chance to be nominated by the Libs.]

    [Sadly, they are not the qualifications that would normally get her ALP pre-selection.]

    With such qualifications she would have no trouble being pre-selected as a Greens candidate 😉

    Janet Rice, the new Victorian Greens senator, completed a Bachelor of Science, graduating with Honours in Meteorology.

    Speaking of Ian Thorpe and having to pretend for so long to be something he isn’t….

    Janet Rice married Peter who, after 16 years together, had a sex-change operation and is now called Penny. They have two children and are still happily married.

    [Unlike most politicians, however, she is willing to tell the truth about a personal life that is anything but conventional.

    Trying to hide the truth would be used against her, she says. After the initial shock of discovery, there was acceptance and a willingness to stay together. A marriage between a passionate local campaigner and a classic scientist.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/gender-changes-but-a-wifes-love-stays/2007/09/08/1188783562207.html

    An individual with integrity, someone who is genuine and passionate about making a better world – a great addition to the federal parliament.

  32. deblonay@978

    Bemused….re misogeny
    _________
    You can’t win that argument
    Your innocent promotion of a good candidate is judged to be false ansd self-serving,,,sad stuff

    With a jury comprising Confessions,Zoomster and others you’ll be found guilty before the hearing

    is there a kind of feral feminism now emerging ?
    worrying ?

    Feral feminism, misandry, whatever. 😀

    I don’t see Jennifer campaigning for votes because she is a woman. She campaigns because she champions Labor’s cause and she will be judged on her merits as a candidate, not her sex, ethnicity or any other irrelevant factor.

    It must be rather discombobulating for the misandry sisterhood to find that Jennifer is drawing strong support from those despised mature aged males. 👿

    Have you had a look at the facebook page? https://www.facebook.com/Jen4MW?fref=ts

  33. deblonay

    “is there a kind of feral feminism now emerging ?
    worrying ?”

    Yeah, uppity women give me conniptions too.

  35. Poroti…
    Al Jezzera is giving on its’ early AM news on ABC4 a very close-up view of Gaza from people on the spot

    Last night they showed a family apartment which had been destroyed(wrong building)by a rocket ,while others were being dug out of the ruins Israeli rocket killing 8 members of an extended family

    I understand from an Egytian-Australian friend that their arabic service has a 10 minutes segment every hour ,and is said to have the biggest audience ever across the Arab world

    By the way those rockets/bombs and aircraft all are state of the art of killing… and courtesy of the USA under its’ 3 billion dollars annual gift package to Israel

    The zionist lobby in the USA certainly gets results,but one wonders what it does to the standing of the USA in the wider Arab world …and what will be the consequences in the future….remember 9/11 ?

  37. Retweeted by Tony Windsor
    Joel Gaskell ‏@joelgaskell 1h

    Murdoch thinks the NBN is ridiculous as it will be overtaken by wireless technology. Plus wireless is much easier to hack.

  38. Oh, another thing deblonay, keep posting links to articles on the Israelis and Palestinians and other Middle East topics. Don’t be deterred by confessions ignorant and intemperate rantings.

  39. [Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 3m
    Interesting Galaxy polling for tomorrow’s Courier Mail on PUP’s impact ahead of next year’s Queensland state election
    Collapse
    10:14 PM – 13 Jul 2014

    Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38
    @Leroy_Lynch It’s a limited seat analysis – Gaven, Hervey Bay, Maroochydore and Pumicestone. Shows PUP with sizeable votes
    10:17 PM – 13 Jul 2014

    Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 1m
    @Leroy_Lynch But with OPV, probably not enough for LNP to lose seats
    10:18 PM – 13 Jul 2014]

  40. I haven’t sat down and watched Fox News for a good few years but I used to tune in when I lived overseas. It somewhat surprises me their viewership is so elderly given the bright, seizure-inducing graphics flashed across the screen every other millisecond or so. It looks like it’s directed at kids who have just had too much red cordial.

  42. [Not only are Fox News viewers old, they’re almost all white. Rich points out that only 1.1 per cent of Fox News viewers are black. That’s a far lower number than other news networks.]

    Calling Fox a news network is quite a stretch. Its news seems to be mostly barely disguised racism, xenophobia and party political cheer leading.

  43. Pegasus…
    Re the Lynch case
    Yes I was aware of the whole affair,which was a long drawn out affair by the zionist in Sydney to scare the Prof and make his life a misery…but he stuck it our and has now won the day

    He was under attack some years ago for helping to give the Sydney Peace Prize to the Palestinian woman leader Hannan Aswhari ,which she did get and came here to speak on her life

    At the time Malcolm Turnbull’s wife Lucy was Lord Mayor of Sydney,and she was pressured by the Lobby NOT to give the prize…she backed out after pressure from the Lobby on Malcolm,but some one else did so…I think Clover Moore who is now the Mayor

  44. bemused, every time I think I can’t possibly have a lower opinion of you, you manage to excel yourself by being even more of a tool than I thought possible.

  46. Yep, I’m backing the Argies.

    This is a different thing from thinking they’ll win, mind 🙂 . Im just backing them.

  47. Bemused…re post 994

    What do you say or do that arouses such venom ?
    I used to get all the time from Psephos,but I know the reason for that …I spoke out against Israel here that’s fatal
    but you seem a pretty inoffensive old white Labor man to me

    so what is the secret ?

  48. Jackol@994

    bemused, every time I think I can’t possibly have a lower opinion of you, you manage to excel yourself by being even more of a tool than I thought possible.

    From you, I count that as high praise indeed. Thank you. 😀

    Now, what has upset you, you poor petal?

    Is it my support for my local ALP candidate who happens to be female?

    Is it my encouragement for deblonay to keep on posting and not be deterred by the ranting of idiots?

    I suspect you just don’t really know… 👿

  49. Fredex

    Thanks for your thoughts.

    Whilst what Cuneen says about female orgasms might well be quite true in most/all cases of violent sexual assault, the Volker assaults, which were ypical child sexual abuse cases, were not of that nature.

    She misses the important point that long term grooming precedes the abuse. The wiley perps do their best to conduct the abuse in a totally non-threatening context and manner ….. in Volker’s cases during sports massages, a common interaction between him and the victims.

    In such cases, despite what’s going on, the victims trust the perp ….. conned to do so …… so the idea of other violence is absent and the victim is not usually focussed on the prospect of physical aggro. Indeed in many cases one of the greatest “pains” for the victim concerns their wrongly perceived view that they share the blame for the conduct.

  50. deblonay@997

    Bemused…re post 994

    What do you say or do that arouses such venom ?
    I used to get all the time from Psephos,but I know the reason for that …I spoke out against Israel here that’s fatal
    but you seem a pretty inoffensive old white Labor man to me

    so what is the secret ?

    I suspect it might be because I don’t go along with bullshit.

    Anyway, lets see if I get a response to 998.

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