The only new federal polling result we look to be getting this week, the regularly fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, has Labor up a point on two-party preferred to lead 53-47, as the bad result which saw them drop two points a fortnight ago washes out of the system. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% and the Coalition down one to 39%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. We also have Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 58%, Bill Shorten down two to 36% and down one to 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-36 to 37-34. Other questions find approval of the government’s handling of boat arrivals up two since March to 41% and disapproval down three to 35%, with 27% thinking the government too tough, 18% too soft, and 36% “taking the right approach”. Another result suggests paring back the disability support pension to be a relatively popular cost-cutting measure, with 46% supporting recent recommendations to that effect and 37% opposed.
[Jason Koutsoukis Significant embarrassment for Sri Lankan authorities that one of its own elite police commandos among those remanded in custody.
by victoria on Jul 8, 2014 at 6:01 pm]
If that is all they have to be embarrassed about, then it is not so bad.
William
Another thought is that the Greens ‘performance’ is possibly just due to MOE. Just looking at the Bludgertrack, the Greens position doesn’t very by more than a few percent, so it could actually all be noise (I am not suggesting it is, but just saying that any signal may not be distinguishable).
Deblonay @ 53
[Fairfax today looks at the 7 wealthiest Australians…6 men and I woman…who have more wealth than 1.73 million Australian households
Interesting too… that four the six men Triguboff,Lowy,Glassenberg.and Pratt all have something else in common
What is it ?]
Everyone who reads your posts here knows that you are a disgusting racist piece of shite and a Jew-hater from birth. Therefore you don’t need to remind us, that when it comes to anti-semitism, you are right up there with Goebbels and Stalin.
Right. So I’ll wrap up —
Using Newspoll’s quarterly figures, some posters have said that Labor needs to be wary of PUP and the Greens taking votes from them.
My observations have been – 1. Using Bludgertrack as a guide, PUP doesn’t seem to much of a threat; and 2. Using past history as a guide, it is highly unlikely that the Greens will poll anywhere near what Newspoll is currently suggesting and indeed 3. based on past Newspoll figures (particularly ones at this stage of the cycle) compared with actual election results, it is quite possible that the Greens will fare worse than they did at the 2013 election.
Astrobleme
You don’t have a conversation with Zoomster you get a lesson.
z always teaches the children well!
At a hearing in Melbourne, counsel for the immigration minister, Scott Morrison, told the court that the boat, first reported by refugee advocates nearly two weeks ago, was intercepted outside of Australian territorial waters and therefore not subject to Australia’s migration laws.
Justin Gleeson SC told the court that the asylum seekers – understood to be 153 Tamils – “have no rights under the Migration Act” and since interception had been moved by Australian authorities to the high seas.
[Ron Merkel QC, acting for 50 of those on board, including eight children aged from two years old and 21 women, said it was “irresistible” and clear that the Australian government planned to “involuntarily and by coercion” send the 153 asylum seekers to Sri Lanka despite the fact the boat departed from Pondicherry in southern India. It is understood that those on board had been living in a refugee camp in Tamil Nadu before boarding the boat.
Merkel argued that this would be a breach of Australia’s non-refoulement obligations under the refugee convention.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/sri-lanka-asylum-seeker-case-australia-pledges-72-hours-notice-before-transfer?CMP=twt_gu
Astrobleme, I’ve put quite a lot of effort over the years into observing polls conducted the week for federal and state elections and comparing them to the final result. I’m not much interested in how their poll figures compare with elections 18 months out, as my concern is to measure the accuracy of the polls. To the extent that the argument is about a tendency for the Greens support to rise or fall in the weeks or months leading up to an election, I don’t really have an opinion. Certainly they rose in the period leading up to the 2001 and 2010 federal elections, owing respectively to the Tampa and the dumping of Rudd, to give some context to Dendrite’s figures.
Rundle has a nice piece on the new Senate in today’s Crikey – well worth a read, IMHO. I found this paragraph entertaining:
[The day began with the usual pomp — by which is meant an assembly with the eerie air of first day at primary school and a regional Tidy Town award ceremony. There was a brief flurry when it became clear that the Palmer United/Motoring Enthusiasts bloc had, to a man and woman, decided to affirm their oath of office rather than swear on the Bible, or a Falcon maintenance manual. Thou shalt have no other gods but Clive, perhaps. They had also shown the way with party colours — Labor and Libs both piked the unanimous wearing of the red or blue in ties or dresses, and the Greens forgo on the chance to look like an aviary, but the PUP rocked out the yellow and black — especially Jacqui Lambie, who resembled the Commonwealth Bank logo, not perhaps the best look these days. Glenn Lazarus, PUP Senate leader, took up two seats down the front, and sandwiched between the Greens and the Coalition were the odds’n’sods — DLP, LDP and Family First, just about the palest group of people you’ve ever seen, less bloc, more isolation ward.]
Between this and our Climate Change stance Abbott could get Australia to pariah status in no time at all.
[World media focus on asylum seeker return
NY Times and international media criticise Australia’s handling of asylum seekers]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/global-media-turns-focus-on-return-of-sri-lankan-asylum-seekers-20140708-3bk9y.html
[ I can only think I’ve hit some kind of nerve. ]
Yes, I think the Greens do have a bit of nerve, after what they did to the original CPRS, which (it could be argued) led directly to the current Abbott-led fiasco of a government.
If the boats have stopped one wonders why the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service is issuing notices on the Commonwealth’s tender site of the following upcoming procurements. Anyone would think we are at war ….
Some rather unusual tenders …
Design and delivery of maritime counter terrorism collective training
Psychological Services and Training
Pre-Vacate Inspection – Panel
Design and delivery of maritime counter terrorism training
Develop an optimised Augmented Multi-Agency Task Force Workforce Model
Provision of services in support of small vessel boarding training
William
[To the extent that the argument is about a tendency for the Greens support to rise or fall in the weeks or months leading up to an election, I don’t really have an opinion.]
Thanks.
[Yes, I think the Greens do have a bit of nerve, after what they did to the original CPRS, which (it could be argued) led directly to the current Abbott-led fiasco of a government.]
Ha!
Nice try Player One.
MTBW
[You don’t have a conversation with Zoomster you get a lesson.]
Especially if you disagree with her.
Astrobleme@164
Glad to be of service.
Yes, because when you disagree with someone, you’d much rather they said “It is!” “It isn’t!” rather than use actual arguments..
Victoria
Ron Merkel QC was a federal court judge who upon returning to life as a barrister seems to have taken up a huge swag of “underdog” claims.
Justin Gleeson SC will be a HC judge one day, IMHO.
Mick77,
[a Jew-hater from birth]
Leaving aside any merits or demits of your target’s views, I wasn’t aware the timeworn nature/nurture controversy had been solved.
I imagine that the Coalition will be very, very interested in the $12 million of which, apparently, Palmer cannot recall signing cheques.
demits = demerits
Boerwar
Whose 12 million dollar cheques was palmer signing?
Shellbell
Jon Faine on ABC this morning, made mention of Ron Merkel and his days as a judge
Rossmore
[Develop an optimised Augmented Multi-Agency Task Force Workforce Model]
Crikey Mo. Before tendering, I would like some terminological clarification of the non-programmatic specificity.
AC @ 169
[I wasn’t aware the timeworn nature/nurture controversy had been solved.]
That may be so but in Deblonay’s case he was already quoting from Mein Kampf at pre-school.
Well, today’s “discussion” over the polls has certainly put paid to the accusation that bludgers don’t discuss the polls enough. Good effort, fellas 😉
Scott Ludlam speaking very well in the Senate carbon tax debate. Read it in Hansard tomorrow. He is not holding back.
Victoria
The cheque apparently was from CITIC Pacific (I think the Port arm). It was for Port services (Clive Palmer successfully applied for the licence to operate the Sino Iron Mine Port at Cape Preston near Karratha).
So CITIC Pacific now want him to provide evidence that it was used to pay for ‘port services’.
Why is it that noone ever signs cheques for me for $12 million and then forgets about them?
I used to get furiously jealous when I read of the banks ‘giving’ someone X millions which they then ‘lost’ – they never seemed interested in letting me lose any of their money.
If any of you guys have money to give away at any stage, just remember – I’m quite happy to lose it for you.
lizzie
yes, I think I’ve redeemed myself and am allowed a lapse…
I made a couple of vats of marmalade today. It’s such a happy looking thing to make…
Astrobleme
Thanks
v
[Boerwar
Whose 12 million dollar cheques was palmer signing?
by victoria on Jul 8, 2014 at 6:26 pm]
He says he can’t recall signing any cheques in relation to this matter. There are (I believe) some subpoenas floating around what passes for Queensland’s justice system seeking to discover what happened to an amount of $12 million. Apparently it was chinese-sourced money and that chinese sources are very interested to know whether Palmer spent the $12 million on the purposes for which it was made available.
There is some speculation that Mr Palmer used the money on PuP’s campaign. If so, and at a stretch, I suppose he could argue that PuP having Senate BOP should be in the commercial interests of both his partners and himself. He has more than a philosophical interest in the carbon tax… his companies have skin that game.
One scenario is that he loses his seat and ends up in the slammer for fraud. This would make ‘management’ of the PuP senators an interesting proposition. They are remarkably free of constraints in what they say and do as it is.
Boerwar
The first person to work out WTF it means wins the tender.
Boerwar
[One scenario is that he loses his seat and ends up in the slammer for fraud. This would make ‘management’ of the PuP senators an interesting proposition. They are remarkably free of constraints in what they say and do as it is.]
Palmer also appears to be free from constraints
Boerwar
The current belief (based on transfer evidence, I think) is that two million went to an advertising form in Brisbane.
Was an article in The West on it last week.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/24393159/inside-palmers-legal-fights/
[Everyone who reads your posts here knows that you are a disgusting racist piece of shite and a Jew-hater from birth. Therefore you don’t need to remind us, that when it comes to anti-semitism, you are right up there with Goebbels and Stalin.]
His posts are miles ahead if yours the mindless stream of abuse is as ridiculous as it is nasty.
700,000 +/- unemployed 450,000 +/- on DSP
135,000 +/- jobs advertised. rough numbers 10 people for every job advertised….and Govt are going to cut on the basis they are bludgers…empathy and compassion do not have a place in the Liberal dictionary
zoomster
Successful marmalade is a very great pleasure to look at.
My achievement today was finally getting a plumber to replace a leaking toilet in my mother’s en suite. Who knows what heights I will aspire to tomorrow!!
Develop an optimised Augmented Multi-Agency Task Force Workforce Model
In common parlance …. the current Border Protection multiagency taskforce workforce model is f*cked and no one has a f*cking clue who is responsible for what, where and when.
poroti
[Develop an optimised Augmented Multi-Agency Task Force Workforce Model]
Vision statement: Arbeit Macht Australia Frei of Asylum Seekers.
The subtext here appears to be that Morrison wanted, but failed to get, independent and full control of a new agency that would have subsumed all assets and staff, and more, involved in his little ethnic cleansing caper.
His fellow capos are happy that he stopped the boats. No doubt about that. But they appear to have some vague understanding that Morrison appears to share some of Napoleon’s aspirations when HE stopped the RN boats during the Siege of Toulon.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Toulon
Boerwar Snap
Astrobleme
Thanks for link. I suspect that, were I Clive, I would tend to forgetfulness as well. So much on his plate.
I notice in passing that the RC into the unions is still going on …
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-08/royal-commission-into-union-corruption-cfmeu-pentridge/5581526 ]
I wonder if anyone is at all interested, given the catastrophic collapse of Abbott’s boat policy and also his climate change denial … which seem to be about the only things he actually had left to boast about?
Surely can’t be long before Morrison’s #optimisedAugmentedMultiAgencyTaskForceWorkforceModel starts trending on Twitter.
Perhaps our Twitter experts could start the ball rolling
WWP @ 186
[His (deblonay’s) posts are miles ahead if yours the mindless stream of abuse is as ridiculous as it is nasty.]
You obviously haven’t read deb’s collected works. My accusations are spot on and certainly not ridiculous, when directed to an anti-semitic piece of shite like deblonay who posts slurs and implied slurs against Jews as a whole, or in particular, at every opportunity.
Boerwar
This is the same company he has been in dispute with for years… They’re not happy about it.
They’re upset he got the licence to operate the Port (they built it and were going to apply themselves, but somehow he got permission).
They’re not happy campers… It’ll end up in a long legal battle.
Ricky Muir rides to the rescue of the Renewabe Energy Agency. Who would have guessed…
“Ricky wants to preserve Arena. He is in favour of renewable energy and he thinks it is doing great work,” the spokesman said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/ricky-muir-seeking-to-save-the-australian-renewable-energy-agency
z&l
Thank youse. If everyone ate a teaspoon of marmalade a day, and if all toilet leaks, as soon as they gouted, were fixed by amiable plumbers infused with alacrity, the world would be a better place by far.
Boerwar
Have you drunk the Hedley Thomas cool aid?
Oh, ffs, someone has to do it.
Antarctic sea ice is at record levels for this time of the year and the anchovies have returned to Peruvian waters, which they would not do in an El Nino year.