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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Bill Shorten’s electorate of Maribyrnong has covered a shifting area around Essendon in Melbourne’s inner north-west since its creation in 1906. It presently extends westwards from Essendon through Niddrie and Avondale Heights to St Albans. Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1969, prior to which it was held for the Liberals for 14 years by Philip Stokes. Stokes had emerged a beneficiary of the Labor split ahead of the 1955 election, at which preferences from the ALP (Anti-Communist) candidate enabled him to unseat Labor’s Arthur Drakeford by 114 votes, in what was only Labor’s second defeat since 1910. The seat finally returned to the Labor fold at the 1969 election when it was won by Moss Cass, who secured enough of a buffer through successive swings in 1972 and 1974 to survive Labor’s electoral winter of 1975 and 1977. In 1983 he bequeathed a double-digit margin to his successor Alan Griffiths, who enjoyed a 7.4% boost when the 1990 redistribution added St Albans, which remains a particularly strong area for Labor. Griffiths was succeeded in 1996 by Bob Sercombe, who chose to bow out at the 2007 election rather than face preselection defeat at the hands of Australian Workers Union national secretary Bill Shorten.
Shorten came to parliament with a national reputation after positioning himself as the public face of the Beaconsfield mine disaster rescue effort in April-May 2006, and wielded great influence in the Victorian party factional system as a chieftain of the Right. However, Shorten was known to be hostile to Kevin Rudd, and rose no higher than parliamentary secretary for disabilities and children’s services during Rudd’s first term as Prime Minister. Shorten then emerged as one of the initiators of the June 2010 leadership coup, together with Victorian Right colleague David Feeney, and interstate factional allies Mark Arbib in New South Wales and Don Farrell in South Australia. After the 2010 election he was promoted to the outer ministry as Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation, and he then won promotion to an expanded cabinet by further taking on the employment and workplace relations portfolio in December 2011. Nonetheless, Shorten’s political stocks were generally thought to have been depleted by the political travails of Julia Gillard, whom he crucially abandoned in June 2013 to facilitate Kevin Rudd’s return. For this he was rewarded with a portfolio swap of financial services and superannuation for education.
After the 2013 election defeat, Shorten and Anthony Albanese of the Left emerged as the two candidates for the first leadership ballot held under the party’s new rules, in which the vote was divided evenly between the party membership and caucus. Albanese proved the clear favourite of the membership, in part reflecting the taint Shorten was perceived as carrying from his involvement in successive leadership coups against sitting prime ministers. However, Shorten’s 55-31 victory in the caucus vote was just sufficient to outweigh his 59.92%-40.08% deficit in the ballot of approximately 30,000 party members, the combined result being 52.02% for Shorten and 47.98% for Albanese.
Its sad when my gems of humour fly over the head of those it was intended for. 😆
@ruawake/951
Yes, well, humour don’t always travel well via internet.
[No, we have several. Ba-doom tish.]
And their names are well known.
The Monster Raving Loony iterations in the UK were mostly ‘anti-politics’ parties with a relatively communitarian perspective once you got past the tongue in cheek stuff.
Curiously, some of their loony policies were no less loony, and sometimes even in relative terms borderline sensible.at least in their aspirations.
The idea that food sold in fast food establishments should be labelled ‘may contain traves of real food’ falls under the heading, satire, but isn’t actually loony. Vegetables being marked ‘for oral use only’ is just plain whimsy.
Another example from 2010
[10. Afghanistan, Iraq and the War on terror. There’s nothing funny about this. however as we have not found any taliban terrorists in Derbyshire. Our Soldiers can all come home now.
[Yes, well, humour don’t always travel well via internet.]
Course it does. 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0b7pZVExV4
The UK may have the Monster Raving Loony Party but I can see before long we could have the Morrison Raving Lonny Party.
[Giant “whirlpools” in the ocean, up to 500 kilometres across, are driving the world’s climate on a scale previously unimagined. We just don’t know exactly how yet.
The bodies of swirling water, called mesoscale eddies, are 100 km to 500 km in diameter. They form when patches of water are destabilised by obstacles like islands. The eddies carry huge volumes of water and heat across the oceans, until they slowly stop spinning over days or months and reintegrate with the surrounding water.]
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25801-huge-whirlpools-in-the-ocean-are-driving-the-weather.html#.U7EgvfmSwbA
Oops
[The idea that food sold in fast food establishments should be labelled ‘may contain traces of real food’ falls under the heading, satire, but isn’t actually loony. Vegetables being marked ‘for oral use only’ is just plain whimsy.]
Hope springs eternal?
[Bridget O’Flynn
Janine Perrett is tearing Mathias apart on Sky Business channel.]
Most of the vegetables on PB are very oral!
I see things are going to hell in Irag. I think all women and children should be evacuated. If men want to turn their country into a battlefield, fine. Go for it. Kill each other until killing gets boring or you get enough blood on your hands, swim in the damn stuff if you like. But don’t expect women and kids to live there while you do it.
Ooh, there’s underwater weather too.
http://www.smh.com.au/tv/Interview/Gores-Challenge-To-Abbott-5000425.html
Al Gore being interviewed.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
So you think all the men are keen on that ? I think not. Only the nutters. The most ruthless of the Tamil Tigers were women . Suicide revenge bombing a specialty.
I was surprised there where 20 LNP members that knew that aluminium was refined. My first reaction was “bet there is a refinery in Fairfax”. Stunt organised overnight.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 1m
#PVOnewshour starting now… I’m joined by welfare expert Patrick McClure]
Puff re Iraq
++++++++
Interesting suggestion but impracticle
Who would carry out such evacuation…and to where ..?.and who would pay ….and feed and house the refugees?????
Not on… In the real world
@lizzie/966
Is PvO being funny?
Because I don’t see being a number cruncher being a welfare expert.
What PvO won’t mention is that Patrick Mclure is from the same private sector that wants more job seekers, so they can get more money from the government (former Mission Australia CEO).
Peter van Insolent gives the “McClure Report” on disability payments the thumbs up. Oh just admits he once worked for McClure.
The whole argument behind aluminium smelters getting a bulk discount on the ETS is silly. We might as well give speeding hoons a discount on speeding tickets and cheaper cigarette prices for heavy smokers.
Child abuse RC
Asking for another 2 years & $100million, didn’t Tony just knoble the RC by reducing funding.
ABC news just said the Government would consider time extension… no mention of additional funding.
Tony really looking after his pedofile mates
sceptic
Tony will “phone a friend” somewhere in Vatican City I suspect.
Aluminium industry can avoid any carbon price. Switch to non renewable sources of electricity.
They can do so gradually
deb
yeah, i know, but one can dream.
poroti
Any women who wanted to stay and join in the killing in men’s wars of course would be welcome to stay behind. But not their kids.
guytaur @ 928
[@MayneReport: That 59-41 Fairfax-Nielsen poll not looking so rogue now as Labor’s 2PP Morgan lead (out this arvo) leapt 2% to 57.5% http://t.co/oZhTY35CXK%5D
Stephen Mayne is being a bit misleading, although maybe by accident. The Fairfax-Nielsen VIC poll was State level, not Federal. Also against all normal Nielsen and The Age practice, they headlined the respondent allocated preferences for the TPP, not the usual last election prefs measure all their Fed polls & other state polls do. If they had, it would have been 56-44 to the ALP at a state level(still very good). This confuses the casual reader who looks at Neilsen & the Newspoll and thinks WTF? when its really only two pts apart, and Newspoll was over two months and the Nielsen was over the last weekend.
As to what he’s comparing it to, the Roy Morgan poll based on the last election prefs is TPP ALP 54.5 L/NP 45.5. Roy Morgan multimode polls (including SMS & the notoriously volatile face-to-face polling) leans about a point to ALP over time (according to Kevin Bonham), so in a way its not too far from the rest of the pack. Neither poll is rogue, they are just headlined differently.
See this section for the Roy Morgan table with the respondent allocated vs last election preference distribution.
http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-recent-2013-2016
However, the higher preference nomination to the ALP in both polls probably shows the temperature out there at both State & Fed level, and its not favourable to the Coalition. But, most pollsters do use last election prefs as the more consistently reliable gauge. I doubt all those indie voters will break to the ALP on the day. But its still a good sign.
RaaRaa
If you are desperate to subsidise aluminium smelting for some reason, you could build them their own renewable capacity and allow them to use as much of it as they needed while the state flogged off the rest. Then we’d have relatively clean aluminium that was no more expensive than dirty aluminium.
Well this is disappointing seeing as we know there isn’t a chance in hell the current govt will extend the RC to enable it to complete its work and make recommendations.
[The royal commission investigating institutional responses to child sex abuse has handed down its interim report, but says it has not yet compiled enough information to make any recommendations.
It is calling for an additional two years and $104 million in extra funding to complete the 70 public hearings they have identified as “essential”.
The interim report says that despite legal obligations to report child abuse, it remains significantly under-reported in Australia.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-30/royal-commission-releases-interim-report-child-sex-abuse/5560782
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
I see things are going to hell in Irag. I think all women and children should be evacuated. If men want to turn their country into a battlefield, fine. Go for it. Kill each other until killing gets boring or you get enough blood on your hands, swim in the damn stuff if you like. But don’t expect women and kids to live there while you do it.]
Puff
I think you’ll find that a sizeable majority of the men don’t want the killing and bloodshed either and their lives are important too. To stereotype them all in that way is really not very helpful.
That said I can understand your frustration. The whole thing gives me the shits too.
Interestingly, Morgan isn’t out on a limb this time in showing its respondent-allocated 2PP results cleaving away from its previous-election results, like it was circa 2012 when its face-to-face polling was showing an unrealistically low preference flow to Labor. Nielsen, which traditionally hasn’t shown much difference between the two measures, has been doing it too. The Victorian Nielsen poll to which Stephen Mayne referred had respondent-allocated 2PP at 59-41 and previous-election at 56-44, and each of its monthly federal polls since March has had Labor between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated.
Why don’t we wait and see what they do first.
Surely the Govt cannot deny the child abuse RC what it asks for. The negative headlines would be appalling.
Even Abbott is not that dumb, surely.
So no Reachtel yet?
Its seems voters are leaving the L-NP but are not prepared to move en masse to the ALP. But they are telling pollsters they prefer the ALP.
Abbott’s problem is he has lost them forever, the ALPs problem is how to entice them.
ru, I don’t think it’s in their blood (so to speak) to jump any specific way on it. I agree that they’ll decide based on political calculus. Whether they come to the same answer as you just did is another matter.
If voters can truly separate state from federal govts then why do we in modern times continually see this ‘toggle effect’ at the state level when the federal govt changes?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/state_colleagues_curse_abbott/
[BREAKING: #London court says UK PM @David_Cameron ex-media chief Andy Coulson will face a retrial over illegal payments #phonehacking]
[Surely the Govt cannot deny the child abuse RC what it asks for.]
If they can water down FoFA laws at the same time as the CBA financial planning scandal is coming to light while simultaneously deflecting calls for a deeper inquiry into that mess, then yeah, I reckon they can thumb their noses at the child abuse RC.
Is Telstra owned by the Records companies now?
http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/telstra_calls_to_say_no_to_price_xhifEK6ilJ9OodpaR3v07M
“Telstra called for a complete removal of all price signalling laws in its submission to the Harper review, which is an inquiry into competition policy. It was a call echoed by other bodies such as the Australian Recording Industry Association (ARIA).”
My mate posted this today, summarising his recent 3 year round-the-world dive trip:
Thought some of you might be interested!
‘fess
Mumble’s graph shows state LNP govts were on the downward slide before Abbott was elected.
zoid
Foxtel
2975
[Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 61.5% well ahead of the L-NP 38.5% on a two-party preferred basis.]
I’ve always maintained that women are far more intuitive than men, are eminently sensible and know a bad deal when they see it.
973 guytaur
[Aluminium industry can avoid any carbon price. Switch to non renewable sources of electricity.]
you mean switch to renewables?
976 FB
Exactly! The smelters in Victoria has the capacity to generate electricity through solar, wind and tidal power. 2 out of 3 of these they can even help out on: wind turbines and solar panels.
Raara
Yes. non was not supposed to be there sorry
Newspoll prediction 53-47
L/Unionist
[My mate posted this today, summarising his recent 3 year round-the-world dive trip:
Thought some of you might be interested!]
???
Ferguson interviewing Andrews on DSP 7:30
There is a Facebook page calling for a 2014 federal election in order to remove the Abbott govt.
Did these people not learn anything over the life of the last parliament?
“@JoshBBornstein: Wanted: employees with episodic mental illness….
#abc730”
@guytaur/997
Is Kevin Andrews going over drive trying to calm people’s nerves?
Is that why he sent McClure to skynews too?