Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor

One of the last polls we will get from Nielsen finds the pollster returning the pack, after reporting a particularly big post-budget blowout last month.

GhostWhoVotes relates that what I believe will be Fairfax’s second final monthly Nielsen poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. While being well on trend, this marks a big improvement for the Coalition on last month, which was their worst poll result of the post-budget blowout: 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40% for Labor, 35% for the Coalition and 14% for the Greens. Leadership ratings to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The Nielsen poll has Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 35% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Bill Shorten down five to 42% and up two to 41%; and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 51-40 to 47-40. Questions on preferred party leaders found Malcolm Turnbull favoured to lead the Liberal Party by 40% compared with 21% for Abbott and 11% for both Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, while Bill Shorten led the Labor pack with 25% to 19% for Anthony Albanese, 17% for Tanya Plibersek and 7% each for Tony Burke and Chris Bowen. A question from the previous poll concerning whether the budget was fair was revisited, again finding 33% agreeing that it was, with disagreement down two points to 61%. On the question of sending Australian soldiers to Iraq, 31% said they would be in favour with 66% opposed.

Other recent polling snippets:

• The Sunday News Limited papers report that a Galaxy Research poll of 1010 women aged between 18 and 44 found 60% thought the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme was fair, with 29% thinking it not fair and 6% believing it was not enough.

• The Conversation reports a JWS Research poll conducted for the Climate Institute finds a 10% increase in belief in (presumably anthropogenic) climate change since 2012 to 70%, together with a range of negative results for the government: a net rating of minus 18% for the present government’s performance on climate change compared with minus 1% for the previous government in the earlier poll, and a slight majority of 34% to 30% in favour of the carbon pricing laws, a dramatic reversal from the 28% and 52% recorded in 2012.

• Roy Morgan has a phone poll of 638 respondents on the biggest problems facing Australia, which has “politics and leadership” up seven points since February to 18%, the economy up three points to 42% and “religion/immigration/human rights” down seven to 9%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly result from Essential Research records a move back to the Coalition, who are up one on the primary vote to 40% with Labor down three to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are steady on 9% and 5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48. Further questions relate to Iraq, with 25% thinking the 2003 invasion the right decision versus 50% for the wrong decision, 53% nominating “to support the USA” as the Howard government’s main reason for getting involved, 39% saying they would approve of US action to support the Iraq government in its current crisis with military action with 31% opposed, and 54% saying they would disapprove of Australia sending troops with 30% approving.

The poll also finds 28% felt the Greens holding the Senate balance of power was good for Australia versus 37% for bad, with 26% and 39% responses for the looming circumstance of Palmer United and micro-parties holding the balance of power. We also get the regular arsenal of “leaders attributes” questions applied to Clive Palmer and Christine Milne, with the former turning up rather poorly, with high rating for arrogant, aggressive and erratic. Christine Milne breaks 50% on “out of touch with ordinary people”, but otherwise seems to have made less of an impression. Both rate quite highly on intelligent and hard-working, but successful politicians nearly always do.

Finally, the poll finds only 19% agreeing with Tony Abbott that no election promises were broken in the budget, with 72% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,075 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 37 of 42
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  1. Centre

    “What was my last prediction on PB?

    NSW to win the series, forecast before game 1.

    Yes – not long now :)”

    You must be a genius!
    🙂

    Yes, so I am actually considering giving up my membership given they’re doomed as forecast by the great ‘Predictor’ 🙂

  2. [
    So is this confidence based on any scientific qualifications at all? Or are you, as I suspect, a dipstick.]

    Tim Flannery, actually!

  4. [FORMER speaker Peter Slipper has lost his bid to have dishonesty charges dismissed on mental health grounds.

    The former federal member for the Queensland seat of Fisher today faced the ACT Magistrate’s Court to hear whether fraud charges against him will be dropped on mental health grounds…

    Mr Slipper will now go to a hearing, set for July 21, which is expected to take six days.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/peter-slipper-loses-bid-to-have-charges-dismissed/story-fn59niix-1226966227143

    Six days for a hearing concerning $1,000?

  5. Carbon tax goes, Direct action goes. An ETS to come in when our major trading partners come on board. I would expect the greens to start protesting pretty soon

  7. In other news Stephen Dank the disgraced ‘sports scientist’ from Essendon has been arrested and questioned over stolen peptides and the Big Day Out franchise has been sold to U.S. concerns and is likely to be shut down.

  8. Rummel

    “Tim Flannery, actually!”

    and you still don’t understand what he said.

    So we stop putting CO2 in the air. The Climate will stop reacting to the current levels after about 1000 years.

    HOWEVER, if we keep putting it in the air, it will continue to get worse for a lot longer…

    I know you don’t get subtle points… but can you at least try?

  11. Rummel only reads “facts” by Bolt and his believers.
    Don’t bother arguing him with him, he’ll out-Bolt you every time.

  13. Wow The Australian playing a straight bat.

    [CLIVE Palmer’s senators will block the Coalition’s efforts to repeal core elements of Labor’s climate change policy, and will try to transform the carbon tax into an emissions trading scheme.

    Mr Palmer, speaking alongside environmental campaigner and former US vice-president Al Gore in Canberra, said his senators would support the repeal of the carbon tax with an amendment ensuring companies were legally bound on pass resultant savings “on to all consumers of energy”.

    However Palmer United Party senators would block plans to repeal the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and any moves to amend the Renewable Energy Target.

    They would attempt to legislate an emissions trading scheme, which would take effect as soon as Australia’s major competitors also took steps to address climate change.

    Mr Palmer said the Palmer United Party would not support the government’s direct action plan as it was “a waste of money”.]

  16. confessions

    Posted Wednesday, June 25, 2014 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    So with Hunt claiming victory is that an admission they actually lost?

    No. As predicted, he’s claiming victory on the basis that their promise the carbon ‘tax’ will be repealled appears to be delivered by PUP.

    And going to an ETS as Labor promised during the election canpaign

  18. Astro

    Good decision.

    Doesn’t the present carbon tax join the European carbon price trading scheme when it converts to an ETS?

    I’m sure Combet organised the details did he not?

  19. Rum Pig

    At least PM Gillard could get legislation through the Parliament. Something Abbott has been spectacularly unsuccessful at.

  20. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Nielsen Poll VIC State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-3) ALP 56 (+3) #springst #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll VIC State Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (-4) ALP 42 (+5) GRN 14 (+1) #springst #auspol
    Expand

  22. [And going to an ETS as Labor promised during the election canpaign]

    But with a significant rider. Which is nothing like what Labor promised during the last election campaign.

  23. “@GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll VIC Napthine LIB: Approve 48 (-3) Disapprove 37 (+5) #springst #auspol”

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll VIC Andrews ALP: Approve 41 (0) Disapprove 36 (-1) #springst #auspol”

  25. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 46s

    #Nielsen Poll VIC Preferred Premier: Napthine LIB 41 (-4) Andrews ALP 40 (+5) #springst #auspol

  27. Nielsen Poll VIC State

    Two Party Preferred (Preferences as per voters’ intended preference allocations):
    L/NP 41 ALP 59

    Two Party Preferred (Preferences as per last election):
    L/NP 44 ALP 56

  29. rummel@1791

    1765
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, June 25, 2014 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/1759

    Well obviously your view that your share with Murdoch and Gina, Pollution is good.


    Pollution is bad, c02 is not pollution.

    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
    Next thing, you’ll tell us that Santa and the Tooth Fairy share digs in an apartment owned by the Easter Bunny

  30. Scott Morrison’s foul bet on torture….

    Tony Wright…
    “In short, if there is a mere 49 to 50 per cent chance of escaping being hung by one’s thumbs from meathooks while being thrashed by a length of electrical flex, that’s good enough for Mr Morrison. They can be sent to whatever fate might await them.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/scott-morrisons-foul-bet-on-torture-20140625-zsll1.html#ixzz35doCwIWX

  32. [Nielsen Poll VIC State

    Two Party Preferred (Preferences as per voters’ intended preference allocations):
    L/NP 41 ALP 59

    Two Party Preferred (Preferences as per last election):
    L/NP 44 ALP 56]

    Dead government walking.

  33. rummel@1799

    Anyway, once the tax is gone (regardless of what useless system follows) what is left of the Gilllard legacy?

    More important is how will history judge RAbbotts legacy, whatever that is.

  37. That’s a great policy by Palmer.

    I’ve always said that we should participate in a global ETS for action on CC when our major trading partners do likewise.

    I remember the brawls I got into here at PB at around the time Ruddy proposed his CPRS.

    I was attacked by the Greens and many on the Labor side. It was like a cage match…I sent them all flying out of the ring 😛

  39. I think Palmer’s being typically self interested and opportunistic, here.

    Easy to announce a zero dollar ETS – harder to legislate it. In the meantime, more money in his pocket.

  40. [lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, June 25, 2014 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    Rummel only reads “facts” by Bolt and his believers.
    Don’t bother arguing him with him, he’ll out-Bolt you every time.
    ]
    Never argue with a Bolt dolt – they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.

  42. [When Tianjin launched its carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on Dec 26th 2013, it became the fifth ETS operating in China, following Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong. Now that five of seven pilots have started trading and the rest are expected to start in 2014, the aggregate of all emissions regulated in China through the seven pilots will be the second largest in the world, following only the European Union.

    The Chinese emissions trading pilots come at a time when environmental and climate issues are increasingly at the top of the Chinese agenda. In September 2013, the central government released its Air Pollution Control Action Plan, which included a target of limiting coal to 65 percent of primary energy consumption and a ban on new coal fired power plants around Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Last year also saw China announce an investment of $277 billion to clean up air pollution over the next five years. Taken together, the events of 2013 show that emissions trading is just one of the ways in which China is trying to tackle it many challenges involving climate and environmental issues.]

    [Beijing plans to replace all of its coal-fired power plants with natural gas plants by 2017]

  43. Scrote Morriscum delving into deeper depths of scummituge..

    [Extraordinary film footage has emerged of Australian immigration minister Scott Morrison directly threatening asylum seekers detained in Australia’s offshore detention centres in Papua New Guinea and Nauru to return to the countries they have fled from or spend a “very, very long time” in detention.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/25/morrison-asylum-seekers-should-go-home-or-face-very-very-long-detention

  47. Triple 😆 . PvO introduces his program with a claim Al Gore supports Clive’s removal of the “carbon tax” . Trying to take over from P:aul Murray ?

  49. Palmer will be playing tactics on how his ETS amendments are dealt with. Could be very messy. But if Gore has some say there is some hope the existing ETS may survive after Palmer gets no support from LNP for his proposals.

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