Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor

One of the last polls we will get from Nielsen finds the pollster returning the pack, after reporting a particularly big post-budget blowout last month.

GhostWhoVotes relates that what I believe will be Fairfax’s second final monthly Nielsen poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. While being well on trend, this marks a big improvement for the Coalition on last month, which was their worst poll result of the post-budget blowout: 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40% for Labor, 35% for the Coalition and 14% for the Greens. Leadership ratings to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The Nielsen poll has Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 35% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Bill Shorten down five to 42% and up two to 41%; and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 51-40 to 47-40. Questions on preferred party leaders found Malcolm Turnbull favoured to lead the Liberal Party by 40% compared with 21% for Abbott and 11% for both Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, while Bill Shorten led the Labor pack with 25% to 19% for Anthony Albanese, 17% for Tanya Plibersek and 7% each for Tony Burke and Chris Bowen. A question from the previous poll concerning whether the budget was fair was revisited, again finding 33% agreeing that it was, with disagreement down two points to 61%. On the question of sending Australian soldiers to Iraq, 31% said they would be in favour with 66% opposed.

Other recent polling snippets:

• The Sunday News Limited papers report that a Galaxy Research poll of 1010 women aged between 18 and 44 found 60% thought the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme was fair, with 29% thinking it not fair and 6% believing it was not enough.

• The Conversation reports a JWS Research poll conducted for the Climate Institute finds a 10% increase in belief in (presumably anthropogenic) climate change since 2012 to 70%, together with a range of negative results for the government: a net rating of minus 18% for the present government’s performance on climate change compared with minus 1% for the previous government in the earlier poll, and a slight majority of 34% to 30% in favour of the carbon pricing laws, a dramatic reversal from the 28% and 52% recorded in 2012.

• Roy Morgan has a phone poll of 638 respondents on the biggest problems facing Australia, which has “politics and leadership” up seven points since February to 18%, the economy up three points to 42% and “religion/immigration/human rights” down seven to 9%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly result from Essential Research records a move back to the Coalition, who are up one on the primary vote to 40% with Labor down three to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are steady on 9% and 5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48. Further questions relate to Iraq, with 25% thinking the 2003 invasion the right decision versus 50% for the wrong decision, 53% nominating “to support the USA” as the Howard government’s main reason for getting involved, 39% saying they would approve of US action to support the Iraq government in its current crisis with military action with 31% opposed, and 54% saying they would disapprove of Australia sending troops with 30% approving.

The poll also finds 28% felt the Greens holding the Senate balance of power was good for Australia versus 37% for bad, with 26% and 39% responses for the looming circumstance of Palmer United and micro-parties holding the balance of power. We also get the regular arsenal of “leaders attributes” questions applied to Clive Palmer and Christine Milne, with the former turning up rather poorly, with high rating for arrogant, aggressive and erratic. Christine Milne breaks 50% on “out of touch with ordinary people”, but otherwise seems to have made less of an impression. Both rate quite highly on intelligent and hard-working, but successful politicians nearly always do.

Finally, the poll finds only 19% agreeing with Tony Abbott that no election promises were broken in the budget, with 72% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,075 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The only question is how many decibels will Hunt’s voice reach? I doubt if he’s worked through all the consequences already – his eyes will pop and he’s shriek.

  2. rummel@1725

    I’m so proud to watch two millionaires talking about saving the planet…. While making shit tins of money in the process. I’m surprised the Ozzie climate oracle Flannery did not show up to support his American brother…. What a joke lol

    You describe yourself quite accurately –

    [ rummel
    Posted Monday, May 6, 2013 at 9:57 pm | PERMALINK

    I’m burdened with my stupidity for life, but i try and share a little bit every day.]

  3. [Of course, you’d prefer a US Billionaire (Murdoch) and a mining Billionaire (Rheinhardt) in charge instead…]

    Nothing wrong with them.

  7. Judging by today’s interesting events, my guess is that Clive built his business empire on some crafty negotiating skills.

    I wait to see the detail, but if Al Gore is on board, then it is probably workable, and might just be dovetailing nicely into USA plans.

  10. WOW!

    I just got home and put the telly on SBS.

    I can’t believe it, Palmer will only support abolishing the carbon tax if it converts to an ETS asap.

    The Fat One – what a legend!

    Told you, in the words of George Costanza…”big fan”.

    Leaves the L-OO-NY Greens for dead.

    ALP 1.

    PUP 2.

    😎

    The Greens R.I.P. not long now!

  11. Rummel

    You seem very confident in rejecting AGW and the work of the vast majority of climate scientists. It seems to me there are two possibilities:

    1) You have an impressive array of scientific qualifications and have spent years doing climate research.

    2) You are a dipstick.

    I think the smart money is on the latter.

  14. [And you argument vanishes as you fail to understand your own failure of logic.]

    Not everyone has the left wing conspiracy gene!

  29. Centre

    “The Greens R.I.P. not long now!”

    Oh god… Like all the other predictions you made, yes??
    It’s kind of hilarious watching your eternal optimism that the Greens are about to die….

  30. [You seem very confident in rejecting AGW and the work of the vast majority of climate scientists. It seems to me there are two possibilities:]

    I’m confident action has been taken already and nothing will change the weather for over 1000 years. Find a new scare.

  32. Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    Grahame Lynch ‏@Commsday 10m

    BREAKING: Looks like first NBN-Telstra deal to be announced tonight

  38. [So with Hunt claiming victory is that an admission they actually lost?]

    No. As predicted, he’s claiming victory on the basis that their promise the carbon ‘tax’ will be repealled appears to be delivered by PUP.

  41. [1765
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, June 25, 2014 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/1759

    Well obviously your view that your share with Murdoch and Gina, Pollution is good.]

    Pollution is bad, c02 is not pollution.

  42. [Did you hear that the USA Ambassador to Australia was in Canberra today with his gay partner.]

    He was asked a question about gay marriage and answered it admirably.

    Relaying how different both he and his partner felt within themselves to have been able to marry.

  43. Rummel

    [I’m confident action has been taken already and nothing will change the weather for over 1000 years. Find a new scare.]

    So is this confidence based on any scientific qualifications at all? Or are you, as I suspect, a dipstick.

  44. Shorten nails it.

    [A statement from a spokesman for Bill Shorten:

    Climate change is serious issue that demands a serious and effective response, not a stunt.

    It’s now time for Tony Abbott to finally acknowledge the flaws in his expensive, inefficient and ineffective Direct Action policy.

    Labor’s position on climate change has not changed. We will not support the repeal of the carbon tax unless there is a credible alternative that will deliver meaningful action to tackle climate change.

    Labor has already voted to abolish the carbon tax in the Senate and replace it with a emissions trading scheme – and we’ll do so again tomorrow.

    Whether or not Clive Palmer’s proposal delivers an effective scheme remains to be seen.

    The ball is in Tony Abbott’s court – he’s the Prime Minister and it’s his responsibility to tell Australians whether he intends on doing a deal with Clive Palmer.

    Doing nothing on climate change isn’t an option – the Prime Minister needs to understand that.]

  46. This is a highly cynical display by Hunt, and full of hubris.

    I’m not looking forward to the incoming SEnate and damage it can wreak in partnership with the Abbott led coalition govt.

  48. [Well, I’ll be looking forward to my $550 pa cheque from the govt.}

    I think the plan is for Hockey to send you three cappuccinos a week.

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