Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll shows Labor down a point on two-party preferred for the second poll in a row, and a narrowing of Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 25
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  2. Raaraa

    [But why resettle them in Malaysia if the point was to discourage them arriving by boat?]

    That’s the point – it won’t discourage a ‘genuine’ refugee but it will discourage one who isn’t.

    Why would a genuine refugee – like you describe – leave Indonesia (or wherever) in the first place?

    There has to be an extra incentive, beyond mere safety, to get on a boat.

  3. [A Lake Macquarie Council motion calling on the Federal Government to address predicted sea level rises has been endorsed at a National Local Government gathering in Canberra.

    …Lake Macquarie council’s policy requiring floor levels to be raised in low-lying coastal areas has angered affected residents and developers.

    Councillor Harrison says hopefully the Commonwealth will respond to the concerns of local government around the country.]

    Don’t like their chances. That chap at Bondi assured us the sea wasn’t rising.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-18/lake-mac-council-motion-on-sea-level-rise-gets-national-backing/5531296

  5. Kathy Jackson’s evidence today that she spent over 5 days in a hospital mental health ward on “psychotic drugs” (sic). Before the police would allow her to return home, suggests to me she was “sectioned” by Vic Plod.

    Shame that many people cannot get a day in a ward, so they self harm or worse.

    Something disturbs me about this, not sure what, yet.

  6. [831
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 3:12 pm | PERMALINK
    bemused

    Well ‘equality of opportunity’, properly understood, would remove the disadvantages indigenous people face.

    It’s that “properly understood”, along with “properly implemented” that are the tricky parts. People do not come to a metaphoric starting line as equals. They come bearing all manner of baggage on the one hand, and with pre-installed jetpacks on the other.

    In practice equal opportunity is rarely honoured.

    But you cannot guarantee equal outcomes if you leave them free to make life choices, including harmful ones such as excess drinking and smoking.

    I took care not to say that I was guaranteeing equal outcomes. I merely said that policy ought to be designed to strongly predispose equal outcomes in areas considered basic to dignified existence. It might well be that even in such circumstances, some people would exercise their discretion in ways that were antithetic to their best interests, as others conceived them.

    However, it is unlikely that those acting self-destructively would be differentiated by class, gender identity, ostensible ethnicity, sexual preference etc …

    I’d be very happy if we got there.]
    Yo see to have forgotten entirely Bob Hawke’s infamous pledge about ‘No child shall live in poverty etc.’

    You want to pursue the same over promising with the same predictable results.

    Oh, that’s right…. You are a Green aren’t you?

  7. On twitter

    [Dear AFP,
    Re: Ashby
    I made a complaint. You said via media issue sub-judice so no investigation.
    Case is off. Over to you.
    Regards
    #auspol]

  9. Bemused

    [You see to have forgotten entirely Bob Hawke’s infamous pledge about ‘No child shall live in poverty etc.’]

    If I recall correctly he said ‘need live in poverty’

    [You want to pursue the same over promising with the same predictable results.]

    I’m for achievable interim targets within an overall goal of overcoming social injustice. I regard it as shameful that an ostensible supporter of the ALP seems to have abandoned the idea that social justice is desirable and attainable. That light on the hill really has gone out for you hasn’t it?

    [Oh, that’s right…. You are a Green aren’t you?]

    Indeed I am. The light still shines bright for my party.

  10. The Union/Insulation Royal Commissions are just very , very expensive , very pre-planned , diversionary tactics designed to distract at the precise moment their massive deceit (budget) was implemented.

    This Govt is dangerous.

  11. From time to time unkind persons here have cast doubts on my Labor credentials. Here is an article I wrote for the 1996 elections, which expresses my core political beliefs as they were then and still are now.

  12. Zoomster

    [Why would a genuine refugee – like you describe – leave Indonesia (or wherever) in the first place?]

    Firstly, and most obviously, because Indonesia can refoul at any time. Secondly, because having burned their bridges and used all of their resources to flee, living indefinitely in misery, especially with children, is unacceptable. Like all of us, life is about hope rather than merely precarious existence.

  13. [You see to have forgotten entirely Bob Hawke’s infamous pledge about ‘No child shall live in poverty etc.’

    If I recall correctly he said ‘need live in poverty’]

    He was SUPPOSED to say “By 1999 no Australian child will need to live in poverty” – that was what his speechwriter (who I went to school with) wrote. But he did actually say “By 1999 no Australian child shall live in poverty”: an absurd statement. The sad part was that the original promise was in fact kept, by Brian Howe’s reforms as Social Security minister. But no-one noticed that because of Hawke’s silly hubris.

  16. Psephos

    I’d like you to acknowledge the fact that the former ALP Government implemented the no visa/offshore resettlement policy, the Indonesian Govt introduced the no-visa-on-arrival policy, both of which are the main reason the boats have slowed/stopped.

    I’d also ask you to acknowledge that the current Minister, Scott Morrison, has ineptly overseen the Manus facility degenerate into a violent and deadly detention camp.

  17. [909
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 5:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Bemused

    You see to have forgotten entirely Bob Hawke’s infamous pledge about ‘No child shall live in poverty etc.’

    If I recall correctly he said ‘need live in poverty’]
    wRONg Fran.
    [You want to pursue the same over promising with the same predictable results.

    I’m for achievable interim targets within an overall goal of overcoming social injustice. I regard it as shameful that an ostensible supporter of the ALP seems to have abandoned the idea that social justice is desirable and attainable. That light on the hill really has gone out for you hasn’t it?]
    No, but I know the folly of over-promising and under-delivering.

  19. [What is disturbing? The fact that she was sanctioned at all?]

    It all smells, if someone seriously tries to kill themselves they probably won’t be sanctioned. Its usually a police strategy to remove someone who may be a danger to the public.

    Still can’t quite put my finger on it.

  21. bemused

    You can promise that our aim is always going to be. Like Shorten did in his budget reply speech.

    That is different to making a promise and under delivering.

    A bit like the point Psephos was making about the Hawke speech.

    One is sensible. The other is just silly.

    This is where politicians fail the most in the broken promise perception.

  24. ruawake

    For the police to , seemingly, have stepped in it must have been pretty dire. Or perhaps it is more a reflection of well to do peeps being treated differently to the plebs.

  25. Bemused

    [No, but I know the folly of over-promising and under-delivering.]

    There is no conflict between stating an ambition and stating interim targets. We may desire for example, to completely decarbonise our energy system but recognise that what is achievable by, say, 2020 is less than 2040 or 2050. This doesn’t mean we don’t regard having a longterm goal as germane.

  26. ruawake

    At that time Kathy believed her life was in danger – well, that’s what she said, because of the shovel, which was later explained. It’s all extremely odd.

  27. [I’d like you to acknowledge the fact that the former ALP Government implemented the no visa/offshore resettlement policy, the Indonesian Govt introduced the no-visa-on-arrival policy, both of which are the main reason the boats have slowed/stopped.]

    I’ve stated the former many times, in fact I’ve boasted it. I haven’t investigated the latter point, but it’s probably also true.

    [I’d also ask you to acknowledge that the current Minister, Scott Morrison, has ineptly overseen the Manus facility degenerate into a violent and deadly detention camp.]

    That appears to be the case, although I’m not aware that Morrison changed the management structure he inherited from Burke. The security firm that was in charge when Berati was killed was hired by Labor and has been replaced by Morrison.

    There has to my knowledge been one death at Manus. You can call that “deadly” if you like. How then would you characterise the previous policy, which caused 1,100 deaths?

  28. Regarding Jackson. Whistleblower or not being around crooks can affect your mental health.

    This is why hearsay is dangerous. Evidence relies on no ones mental state or belief of events.

  32. [At that time Kathy believed her life was in danger – well, that’s what she said, because of the shovel, which was later explained. It’s all extremely odd.]

    I have no problem with the police deciding she may be in danger, they would normally make sure she was with family and friends in a secure place – not the mental ward of the Austin Hospital

    Someone convinced a magistrate she was mad.

  33. In NSW when police get a court to decide you must be locked up its called being sectioned.

    There is specific legislation as to conditions to be met

  35. Libya has been a failed state since 1969, when it was taken over by a an armed gang headed by a lunatic. All that’s happened now is that it has devolved into being run by several different armed gangs. The real issue is whether all the Arab states are by definition failed states, in the sense that they are incapable of creating any form of government other than autocracy without outside intervention. That is still an open question, although the evidence of the Arab Spring is not encouraging.

  37. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 5:42 pm | PERMALINK
    In NSW when police get a court to decide you must be locked up its called being sectioned.

    There is specific legislation as to conditions to be met]

    You need 2 medical practitioners to section someone.

    You are all lucky here, as one of them has to be a psychiatrist, otherwise Dio and I could have had a field day!

    :devil:

  38. [lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 5:43 pm | PERMALINK
    ruawake @ 932

    Everything seems upside-down.]

    Nope…..horizontal, but not upside-down.

  39. Lots of good political comment in this article on Philip Chubb’s book “Power Failure”.

    [He points out that the Royal Commissions into the insulation scheme and unions are both elements of a revenge that “knows no bounds”.

    “A little mud {from the Royal Commissions} will stick, and in the run up to the 2013 election Abbott showed himself to be a truly gifted flinger of mud,” Chubb says.

    Asked what his investigations had revealed about the relationship between the Institute of Public Affairs and the Coalition, Chubb describes the relationship as “tribal”.

    “The IPA is part of the tribe; it gives the government emotional support, mateship and sustenance, and also from time to time maybe a bit of intellectual support,” Chubb says.

    “The IPA and the Coalition are fighting the so-called culture wars every day from the moment they wake up to when they go to sleep.”]

    http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/archives/63434/

  42. Psephos

    Good to see your acknowledgements.

    It’s frustrating when others wrongly attribute the slowing/stopping of mass drownings to the Coalition who’ve simply inherited working policies but unfortunately are grossly mismanaging the offshore facilities.

    The Pacific Solution eventually stopped drownings, but as it did not offer a long term deterrent (eg. no resettlement visa) it was only a temporary measure that would’ve been eventually gamed.

    The Rudd Government (ver.1) failed (one of many policy fails) to act when drownings started re-occurring.
    He was duly sacked.

    The minority Gillard Govt attempted to implement a working deterrent (Malaysia) but was effectively opposed by the Conservative-Green cartel interested only in garnering votes.

  44. Not sure Saudi Arabia’s version of corrupt authoritarian Islamist governance should be held up as an example of anything “done well”.

  46. I am not sure the people who have been apparently tortured and killed in Saudi Arabia, would consider that Saudi Arabia had “done well” as you put it.

  49. ET

    Talking about staes that fail is different to talkung about human rights and democracy.

    Another example is China. hey are doing well, but not on human rights and democracy

  50. 940

    Turkey is not Arab. They speak Turkish, which is written in a Roman script and from left to right (unlike Arabic).

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