Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.
Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.
In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.
As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.
Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.
Good pro-health anti budget rally in Adelaide today at lunchtime. Several speakers including health unions, AMA vice president, Premier, Health Minister.
Best placard was “Budget Smuggler”
Wakefield
There was a similar rally in melbourne last week
[Jonathan Swan
My prediction is that @TurnbullMalcolm will not be doing Alan Jones tomorrow morning. Today’s interview was a terrible idea.]
Before I head off, an email churn from Turnbull
[The mark of a great society is the way it treats the neediest and most vulnerable.
On June 19, I will be joining St Vinnies in their annual CEO sleepout – business and political leaders used to warm beds will be sleeping outdoors on a chilly winter night to raise money for the homeless.]
Lateline introduction
What Crisis. Guest to talk Victorian Politics Jeff Kennet
[Of course the penny has dropped. Business and consumer confidence has had the biggest drop in years]
and yet, the Oz today reports.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/australian-economic-growth-stronger-than-expected/story-e6frg926-1226942710838
no mention of the crash in consumer and business confidence. no doubt when they do report it, the Oz will attribute it to ‘uncertainty about the budget passing’ and blame labor, greens and the cross benches. seriously – this is how they’ll spin in.
That CEO sleep out is a shame, I use to think it was legit but having met someone who helps to organise it apparently they all go home at around 10pm, if true the event should be seen for the shame it is.
shame = sham
Labor looks good on Lateline
[Before I head off, an email churn from Turnbull
The mark of a great society is the way it treats the neediest and most vulnerable.
On June 19, I will be joining St Vinnies in their annual CEO sleepout – business and political leaders used to warm beds will be sleeping outdoors on a chilly winter night to raise money for the homeless.]
I received this to – replied with an email drawing his attention to his party’s treatment of refugees and the proposed budget’s impact on the neediest and most vulnerable. challenged him to do it without a PR crew.
Pretty heavy rain coming down in Sydney atm.
Re the fuel excise story about the Libs and Nats, remember Tuckey and co going on 4corners to boast about the Peacock-Howard overthrow ( I think Peacock took down Howard )
I don’t doubt the story at all.
The AFL’s new hall of farmers are Anthony Koutiufides, the late Ern Henfry, Brad Johnson, Warren Tredrea, Andrew McLeod and RICHO!
Can’t argue with any of them
the other thing of interest with the turnbull PR emails. After months of inaction, I have received three in the last week. It’s ON!
Kennett raving means Labor doing well
William – can you check why your first Bludgertrack Table shows the LNP vote dropping 8.8% from “2013” but the 2pp only droppoing 8.5%. Not possible?
Evening all. Hearing of the death of Doc Neeson today made me feel a little older and quite a bit sadder. I still remember hearing them live in my youth – they were great live, and Neeson could really belt out songs in a long show – and of course the crowd singing back. They were fun. RIP Doc, I will miss you.
Well said Socrates. The Angels were one of the first live bands I saw as an 18 year old at Basser Ball at NSW Uni.
Tony, get back here quick, Malcolm’s making his move. The waves aren’t fantastic on Normandy beaches, anyway.
“@kirstenaiken: Coming up next on @ABCNews24, the full joint statement by Australian PM @TonyAbbottMHR and Indonesian President @SBYudhoyono. 2300 AEST.”
The Cunneen inquiry into a cover up of a paedophile catholic priest in Newcastle diocese has made clear findings of wrongdoing by senior church officials.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-04/hunter-valley-catholic-church-under-fire/5501038
Now the acid question: will a NSW Liberal attorney general permit a senior catholic clergyman to stand trial for their crimes? Will Tony Abbott have any say in the matter? Or will Brad Hazzard be guilty of fostering moral hazard, by doing nothing? Will Liberals be hard on crimes committed by powerful friends?
As founder of Liberalism Edmund Burke would say, “all that is necessary for the forces of evil to triumph in the world are for men of good will to do nothing”.
I don’t quite follow you there, Wakefield.
[ no mention of the crash in consumer and business confidence. no doubt when they do report it, the Oz will attribute it to ‘uncertainty about the budget passing’ and blame labor, greens and the cross benches. seriously – this is how they’ll spin in. ]
I think you are absolutely correct. Its about the only way to rescue this Govt’s standing at the moment. News Ltd will want to set the stage for the Govt to claim an over-riding need for all the Budget measures to be passed in both houses. Suits their agenda and provides good theater.
Roger
Yes I first saw them when I was still in high school – one of the first “big” bands I ever saw. The Angels were great fun – and no big egos, just good at what they did. Doc really made them.
Cast your minds back to when Julia Gillard would go overseas.
It was like clockwork.
While the cat is away the mice will play.
Same thing is happening with the conservatives.
Hmmmm Is this usual diplomatic speak from Indonesian President or has Abbott promised to stop turning boats back?
William – the top rhs table shows in the blue and pink line a 8.5% LNP to ALP shift since 2013. But the top line shows a 8.8% drop for LNP. 2PP change must be higher than the LNP alone change?
Edmund Burke is invariably put in the conservative box these days, rightly or wrongly.
Re Kennet on ABC
______________
For those who don’t remember Vic before 1999…this was typical Kennett..A.Classic Kennett appearance
He denies what is know to be true.talks down his opponent and ignores all evidence
It worked for him in his earlier term,but it all came apart in that famous election in 1999 when he lost,most unexpectadly by a single seat ..what a night to remember!
Even now he seems to speak of it as if it was a moment of inaanity by the Vic voters
In the end Kennett’s Torrent of Bulshi style fails as his listeners finally wake up…and those mwho remember the 90ies still flinch when they hear him
Tonight I watched the ABC and made a cup of coffee to see a real Kennet performace,but muy wife who has a smaller tolerance than me, went to bed,saying it was all to much to watch him…even now many can’t watch …though he is nowlike some old tin-pot dictator in exile
so deep is the loathing even now in Victoria
[2PP change must be higher than the LNP alone change?]
No, if the Labor vote is up by less than the Coalition vote is down, it follows that some of the primary vote the Coalition loses will come back to it on preferences.
Regarding the economic figures, they have only improved in the way Abbott’s poll numbers “improved” by a point. It is a dead cat bounce, after some very anemic months. Whether good or bad, you cannot judge economic trends off a single figure. The average growth over the past six to twelve months is still well below the long term average rate. That is why so many school leavers, and even some uni leavers, still have no job.
William Bowe@1728
Burke was a conservative and regarded as such when I studied politics in the 1970s.
But of course the Libs are not conservatives so his positions bear no relationship to theirs.
William 1728
Agreed, that is why I quoted him. Will a conservative AG do as Burke would recommend? We have still never seen an Australian Bishop or cardinal charged with perverting the course of justice or other appropriate offense for covering up and facilitating child abuse. It has now happened in several other countries, even Ireland. (The RC smuggled the suspect out to the Vatican, claiming diplomatic immunity!)
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/eamonn-mccann/why-the-vaticans-diplomatic-immunity-days-are-numbered-28557346.html
They will keep committing the crime, as long as they think they will keep getting away with it.
Deblonay
I have heard Andrew Denton tell the story of when he had Kennet on his show.
Apparently in the chat beforehand Kennet was in great form. Witty, charming and Denton was full of hope for what was to follow.
Then,he recalled, Kennet walked on stage for the interview and turned into Jeff Kennet.
And having seen the show,I knew exactly what Denton meant.
@AlanKohler: The dollar during tonight’s ABC news. Massive volatility as my gaffe flashed on traders’ screens http://t.co/nGc0Giiztr
Steve777,
[I’d go further and say when you can see a medical specialist on Sunday morning, go to the bank or post office without having to duck out of work and when football finals are played on Tuesday.]
Spot on. Maybe it’s different in the big cities, but here in the Illawarra you’ll never see a Howard Battler giving up his family’s Sunday or Official Holiday to work on a construction site of any type, residential or commercial or government.
Night all.
William 1730 – agreed – ignore query!
Goodnight
How much grovelling has Tony Abbott needed to do?
Tony Abbott @TonyAbbottMHR 8m
Just finished dinner with @SBYudhoyono – He’s been a great President and a great friend to Australia pic.twitter.com/YRxXgMULtH
Sorry William I just realised your point, I should have said conservative in reference to Burke, hence the link to conservative AG Hazard. Getting tired. Night all.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/optional-senate-preferencing-not.html
New piece about optional Senate preferencing; demolishes Mackerras piece in the Oz from last week in probably far more gory detail than it’s worth. 🙂
I did some stuff here on preference flows from micros to big parties cf other micros in House of Reps seats that may be of some interest. Basically there do not seem to be any micro parties whose voters will by choice very strongly preference only other micros. There are tendencies towards this in some cases like the Australian Christians, but generally a micro voter is not less likely to preference ALP/Lib/Green than to preference another micro.
Thanks Kevin.
https://twitter.com/KateEllisMP/status/474026343491846144
Yet another Abbott joke thread trending top on Twitter:
#WhatAbbottWillSayToObama
1745
Will he quote Brandis on bigot`s?
William and/or Kevin B
I have a recollection of reading somewhere that it is not unusual or significant to find an incumbent PM ahead on the PPM by a few points even when the 2PP is showing his/her government well behind and in serious trouble. (I think this may have been the case with Julia Gillard at times during 2013).
If that recollection is right, does it then follow that the ten percent PPM lead Shorten now has over Abbott makes the 2PP lead Labor currently has over the coalition even more significant.
Darn@1747
For a ten percent PPM lead to the Opposition the expected Opposition 2PP is a shade under 55. So two consecutive Newspolls with 55 and 54 and that PPM isn’t unusual. But there is enough variation that yes you can easily get closer PPM figures with large Opposition 2PP leads.
1749
Bigot`s rights of course.
While Gillard was PM and Abbott Opposition Leader, if Abbott had a PPM lead of 10 points then the predicted 2PP would be 57.7. Abbott underperformed on PPM because he was such an unpopular Opposition Leader. There was also a similar dynamic with Rudd vs Howard but in that case it was because Howard’s stocks were much higher than his party’s.