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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s undeveloped remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south, which pushed the Canberra electorate north of Lake Burley Griffin to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolments of around 140,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 105,000.
The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, succeeding Lionel Murphy as Attorney-General upon his appointment to the High Court in early 1975. Enderby was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.
Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was easily won for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 prompted McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he had secured on the short-lived boundaries in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career that began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, since which time the seat has returned fairly consistent results with Labor margins ranging from a low of 7.0% in 2013 to a high of 11.8% in 2007.
Both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not seek another term six months out from the August 2010 election. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for the two seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s preselection was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left was to support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), which the Right was to reciprocate in Fraser by backing Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109. Following the 2013 election defeat she was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary in the defence portfolio.
Everything/Mod Lib – what the hell are you on about? Tough budget is the Coalitions spin on it and Fran is repeating it obediently. Bastardry is my term and if a media is prepared to ridicule a female (even a prime minister) who fell over can’t see this would be beneath them. Anyway I think this term is concurred with by most of the country it would appear.
So the LNP apparently ‘stopped the boats’ by introducing the ‘no visa’ PNG policy and the ‘no visa on arrival in Indonesia’ policy… ?
MSM are wonderful at re-writing history sometimes.
[zoomster
Posted Sunday, May 25, 2014 at 9:54 am | PERMALINK
ML
No, my point is that you respond to an accusation of bias by the media towards the Liberals by claiming that that proves that posters here are incorrect to claim there is bias towards the Liberals in the media.]
No, I am ridiculing the suggestion that to claim a reporter has to use “bastardy budget” or they are biased.
Then, I make the point that there is great joy here talking about the media reports of this budget (which are perfectly fair enough in my view), where the exact same pressure applied to the previous government was all sexism and anti-ALP bias apparently.
It aint that hard to follow actually…..
https://www.facebook.com/ABCNews23/photos/a.486821478074780.1073741827.486818034741791/641956795894580/?type=1
Nice photo montage.
Someone at the ABC is not toeing the ABC line faithfully.
http://www.essentialkids.com.au/older-kids/education-for-older-kids/why-i-take-my-child-to-protests-20140524-38v1z.html#utm_source=FD&utm_medium=lifeandstylepuff&utm_campaign=protests
This one is just to provide an interesting juxtaposition.
Morrison in from 250 to 1 to 7 to 1 on being leader of the Liberals at the next election.
…Haha 🙂 and there we have it with post #101 talking about sexism again!
BW,
Morrison is the “rolling pin” option for the Libs.
You’ll get him if you break Tony!
I lasted to the end of insiders.
victoria:
Talking Pictures is often the most incisive part of Insiders!
And there we have it. Canberra Press Gallery still out of touch.
They should pay more attention to the cartoons
Scott morrison has an odious and snarking persona. Go for it libs. Make him your next leader
Boerwar:
Wow, that’s quite a narrowing!
vic,
You probably now know less than you did an hour ago.
guytaur
Yep. The cartoonists are more in tune than the journo class
GG
Probably. Lol….
Re Everything @88: Not that many saying there is media bias this term though is there?
The bias this year is not that bad as last year and New Corp titles are carrying stories unfavourable to the Government. That being said, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph is openly campaigning for this budget and generally running interference for Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey.
Ross Gittins (linked by BK above) gives what seems to me to be a fair exposition of the budget strategy: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/tricks-hidden-by-hockeys-fiscal-juggling-20140523-38ua0.html
Re Our/their ABC: it is not, in my opinion, biased, just lazy, too often taking the lead from the Murdoch tabloids.
Malcom Farr said the big question about the scholarship was whether or not the institution got any advantage from Govt regarding accreditation processes or more general benefits . This is correct so naturally the question had to be carefully ignored by the others.
My hope is that team Labot have a clear strategy this week to hold the fibs to account for the nasties in this budget.
Primarily the funding cuts for pensioner concessions,
countless valuable community programs
Deregulation of higher education
And the assault on medicare
Phil Vee
Bingo. Question is will Abbott be asked further re the scholarship
Steve777:
So you are quoting Gittins’ criticisms as evidence of media bias, or not?
I would have thought there are plenty of voices out there critical of the government. Perhaps they don’t use “bastardy budget” but that is a rather high threshold on which to measure bias I would have thought!
E
How do the Abbott cuts affect you? Keeping your job or are you one of the retrenched if the health measures get through the Senate?
What irked me most about Insiders was that the panel unanimously agreed that there was no question Frances Abbott is a talented girl, deserving of a $60,000 scholarship.
Since only one was awarded, and no scholarships were offered to anyone else, I presume they are saying that she was not only talented, but was the most talented girl in years to present herself to the Whitehouse college? So talented, in fact, that the Chairman virtually created the scholarship just for her.
Her results would give the lie to that. They were average at best. Although it’s said she achieved “Distinction average”, it seems just about every student who stumps up the cash for the course does.
I mean, you aren’t going to take $60,000 of a young kid who has to wait tables, dig ditches etc. to collect the loot, and then fail them are you? Especially in the first two years.
Horror of horrors, they might not come back!
Incidentally, most of the kids interviewed are STILL waiting tables and digging ditches. So much for the Whitehouse college’s claim as a center of excellence.
guytaur:
I am in the fortunate position that no budget ever significantly effects me so I can look at it more objectively than most.
I think they have screwed up with lots of these measures, like Workchoices, going a few steps too close to the cliff!
There were a few simple things they could have done, which would have made precious little difference to the bottom line:
1. No fees for children under x years, pensioners or healthcare card holders
2. No change in the interest rates for HECS repayments
3. Not coupling medicare copayment with a new spending initiative ($20b research fund)
….not to mention hitting the big end of town harder than they have!
I am yet to see a front page or any other page in the herald sun questioning the merit or otherwise of Abbott not disclosing the scholarshio given to his daughter, which was recommended by his close friend who is a Liberal donor.
Yesterday the Herald Sun devoted the front page to Geoffrey Edelston’s new girlfriend, and a double page spread as well. Bread and circuses come into play when they deliberately avoid reporting anything about this govt. If it had been a Labot PM, you can bet your bottom dollar that the scholarship would have been front page news.
The Murdoch stable modus operandi is to report by omission.
It appears that the conservative side are so disheartened by their Abbotocracy that, when they do surface, they can only concentrate on trivialities. For example, has Mad Lib praised any aspect of her budget? Or is the majority view of PB on media bias of such earth shattering importance in her mind?
victoria
Bravery for staying until the end, but I thought it was one of the less factual Insiders in weeks.
Maley so obvious loves Tony “he’s just a winking man”.
Fran quite at sea over whether Bronnie should be a more neutral Speaker. Surely she of all people should be aware of the tradition of neutrality.
The whole group missed several important points (see Bushfire above).
Luckily I fell back to sleep towards the end
[Yesterday the Herald Sun devoted the front page to Geoffrey Edelston’s new girlfriend, and a double page spread as well.]
Perhaps they are saving a centrefold spread for when further distraction is needed.
Dean Mighell of all people on The Blot Report.
Must be hard up for a gig.
Sava leaning away from him quite obviously, almost holding her nose.
earth shattering importance?
I made ONE post.
Dont blame me if there were numerous comments about that one post, which any reasonable person would have thought was perfectly fair (i.e. that criticising the media for not using the phrase “bastardy budget”!).
I note that you don’t criticise those making repeated replies about my single comment…..its just my single comment that was evidence of “earth shattering importance” meme! 🙂
lizzie
Yep an uninspiring insiders
lizzie
[Fran quite at sea over whether Bronnie should be a more neutral Speaker. Surely she of all people should be aware of the tradition of neutrality.]
Not to mention the Coalition’s claim that she would be along with all that guff about restoring the dignity of office. But why hold them to even their own standards?
Mad Lib@123
Well seems you don’t really think they got much right then.
Since Abbott put his family front and centre during the last campaign it is only reasonable they cop scrutiny after.
Sorry Tone, you made your bed now lie it.
Tough titties.
It’s Time
I wouldnt be surprised. Although the double page spread yesterday was full of images of this young girl in all sorts of poses
No, I think they were heading in the right direction, I think they just went too far.
Quite consistent with my view about the ALP Stimulus package as a matter of fact!!!!
:devil:
Well, ML, if you’ve anything earth shattering to say about the budget, feel free to make another post.
lizzie:
I turned off after they spent so much time talking about how social media spent so much time going on about Abbott’s wink.
Blech. Insular, self-indulgent crap.
Re Everything @120: maybe my last post wasn’t quite clear. I regard Ross Gittins as a very knowledgeable and unbiased commentator on economic matters and the related politics. I have regarded Fairfax publications over the years as being fair and balanced. Some individual columnists have their own biases and agendas. It’s not bias to be a supporter of Abbott, the Liberals or of radical free market economics. It is bias to deliberately misrepresent or invent facts in support of the views being expressed.
In writing about the budget, there is no need to use words like ‘bastardy’ (is that a real word?) to be unbiased. A statement of the facts and analysis of the impacts should make it clear. On the other hand, attacks on the disabled and unemployed of the sort we see in the Telegrap are biased and ‘bastardy’ and beneath a publication that wishes to be taken seriously as a journal of record.
Henry:
Yes, Abbott was all for putting his family front and centre when times were good, but now there are questions about special favours suddenly he wants families left out of it.
I have said what I think about the budget. Perhaps you missed it?
You also seem to have missed my question about whether the claims about media bias have increased, decreased or stayed the same here. What do you think?
victoria@124
So you actually read that trashy rag?
Steve777:
I am not sure that anyone in Sydney considers the DT as a publication that wishes to be taken seriously as a journal of record.
I don’t even think the DT thinks that of itself!
:devil:
Bias is measured in aggregate. The presence of The Guardian changes that aggregate.
bemused
No i dont. But i do take the opportunity when i am out and about, to look at what this paper does with its reportage. It takes all of 30 seconds to look at the front page and the first 10 pages to gauge their modus operandi.
Based on statements so far from ALP, Greens and PUP, does anyone have a list of budget measures which are expected to be rejected by the Senate?
Mad Lib@135
Wrong again!
What kind of an idiot thinks Direct Action is heading in the right direction? What kind of an idiot thinks cutting the deficit is assisted by dropping the MRRT? etc.
Well thanks Mad Lib, you have made it clear to us. Idiots like you.
The deficit levy gets through with ALP support
The PPL might get through with Greens support
The pensioner and medicare copayment can get through at the moment
The MRRT is a net negative on the budget. It hardly raises anything (in fact I heard reports it might have been negative), and the impact on investment enthusiasm about Australia is a greater effect.
Briefly
While I agree the petrol tax excise indexation is regressive it IS a carbon tax in all meaningful senses of the matter, so it is entirely consistent with Greens policy to place it on fuel. Indeed it would probably have made a heck of a lot more political sense to put a higher excise tax on fuel (including diesel) than run with the Carbon Tax. The net impact on the total greenhouse gas emissions would be pretty much the
Now I also personally have a problem in opposing the PPL scheme. Having been a beneficiary of just such a generous scheme it would be hypocritical to deny it to others. I imagine many, many Greens, especially those who have public sector background – teaching, nursing public servants etc, have also benefited from such schemes and cannot in conscience deny it to others. I am not sure Labor should either.
Henry,
Have to agree that Abbott was enthusiastic about using his family during the lead up to last year’s election. His daughters spoke at the Lib launch and were interviewed numerous times about issues.
Whether that makes them fair game for investigation of their personal and carreer lives is a vexed question.
I notice Margie Abbott is under attack this morning for failing to live up to the spin that she is a “charity worker” trooper.
As it was Tony Abbott who introduced them to the debate. He really might have to just suck up all the media revelations and criticisms.