Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has a somewhat less bruising result for the Abbott government than it has lately been accustomed to, as Campbell Newman’s state government girds itself for a difficult by-election.

Galaxy has produced a poll of federal voting intention in Queensland shows the Coalition leading 52-48, representing a swing to Labor since the election of 5%, with further detail presumably forthcoming courtesy of the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: The primary votes are 33% for Labor (steady since February, as is the two-party result), 41% for the Coalition (steady), 7% for the Greens (steady) and 12% for Palmer United (up one). The poll also has a surprisingly high 48% in support of the GP co-payment with 50% opposed, 46% and 48% for increasing the GST, and 25% and 72% for raising the pension age to 70.

In other Queensland news, it today emerged that a state by-election looms in the inner Brisbane seat of Stafford following the resignation of Liberal National Party member Chris Davis. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. How much does it cost to hire the Speaker’s Dining room? If Bronnie can’t answer she should resign.

    There is a cost, the Liberal party got a venue for free. A venue paid for by taxes.

  2. Kezza2

    I am not sure its fair to claim Melbourne had bigger criminals than NSW.

    Sure we had Squizzy but Sydney had the razor wars.

    Melbourne’s pollies might well have been corrupt but at least they got things done.

  3. This was interesting at the foot of Letters to the Editor, Age.

    Postscript

    Talk about heavy lifting. Here at Letters HQ, we’re close to buckling under the weight of the massive volume of budget-related emails coming into the inbox.

    There are just so many parts of Joe Hockey’s realignment of the nation’s spending priorities that readers dislike, so much unhappiness with what was said before the election and the budget itself, and so many meditations on the implications that it has been impossible to capture them all on the page.

    This from Richard Keyes from Enfield, for example, on the potential international fallout: “Any world leader observing Tony Abbott’s casual disregard for the truth with his own people would have to doubt whether they could believe anything he says to them as well.”

    More writers this week defended the budget and the government, though they remain in the minority.

    Kim Chau-Vo, from Northbridge, was among the most passionate: “I love my country, Australia, and would be happy to make necessary sacrifices to maintain the standard of living for all, especially our children … I support Tony Abbott for his courageous stand.”

    But for every missive arguing voters should give Abbott a chance, there were many more arguing he has forfeited that right. “Remember, he did not extend the same courtesy to the voters,” Mustafa Erem, of Terrigal, wrote. “He lied to them. The contract is null and void.”

    Perhaps when considering the week’s polls, the government should consider this insight from Tony Turner of Tuross Head:

    “How quickly our elected officials forget they were voted in solely because it was the only way we had to vote their predecessors out.” Might that put talk of mandates in perspective?

    Julie Lewis Letters co-editor

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-letters/tony-shepherd-is-wrong–not-all-are-doing-budget-heavy-lifting-20140523-zrm0r.html#ixzz32bgZ3m7P

  4. [Documents tabled in Parliament also reveal Mrs Bishop recently accepted as a gift over 13 litres of Johnny Walker Black Label and Mixed Spirits.]

    Does she bathe in the stuff?

  5. Victoria

    If that person is from a JSA provider then of course they wont ever have enough jobs as most employers don’t use the white elephant to find staff.

    The employers hire mostly directly or though recruitment agencies with JSA a complete after thought.

    The sooner JSA is closed down the better.

  6. The only job seekers who should ever go to JSA are those with no official skills

    Every HR person knows that is where you go for the unskilled.

    Anyone with a qualification or extensive experience should be in the mainstream labour market.

  7. Ruawake, I would have thought, from watching her parliamentary performances, you would well work out what she does with the stuff.

  8. There’s definitely internal shenanigans going on… I mean, everyone in Canberra knows BBishop is very fond of her spirits – there’s a reason why THAT story came out at the same time as the misuse of the Speaker’s suite.

    Just because something isn’t illegal… doesn’t mean it’s not totally inappropriate.

  9. If it’s NSW versus Vic for the Liberal leader and Victoria wants one of their guys, that would leave out Sydney spivs Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison. Andrew Robb would seem to be the only candidate.

  10. [

    Documents tabled in Parliament also reveal Mrs Bishop recently accepted as a gift over 13 litres of Johnny Walker Black Label and Mixed Spirits.

    ]

    [Does she bathe in the stuff?]

    Kero for the rich?

  11. [As BB has pointed out on many occasions they think it was through their own good management they survived.]

    Pretty right.

    The precise position was that those tradies who didn’t get jobs working for the BER or HIP, but still survived, never thought to consider that the only reason they kept working was because their competition was otherwise engaged… BER and HIP work.

    I can still remember speaking to a chippy doing a couple of easy hours on the lollipop flag outside our local primary school.

    He was full of scorn because the slab was 2 feet thick, instead of the usual 1 foot thick.

    I pointed out to him that this meant the drivers, the concrete company and the concreters were all making extra money. It didn’t faze him at all.

    Very few of them realized what going on the dole would have meant. Their cars, their tools and in some cases their houses were “part of the business”, or in CES-Speak “assets” that would have reduced any dole payments they might have been eligible for, until exhausted i.e. sold off.

    I’m afraid the Australian mentality is to whinge no matter what happens. It’s the only thing that got Abbott in the PM’s office, and still might be the only thing that gets him out of it.

    The public is learning the power of a short attention span.

  12. Steve777

    J.A wannabe doubles partner might have a few things to say.

    I don’t think the Liberals have a clear successor to Tone unless they want someone with a worst record than him which of course would open the door to the Hon MP for Menzies

  13. mexicanbeemer

    Melbourne always had more class than arse. (Better at hiding the criminal activity in the halls of power).

    And Sydney has always had more arse than class. (And couldn’t be bothered hiding its criminal hedonistic lifestyle).

    They’ve been trying catch-up ever since the 1850s.

    Melbourne’s criminals actually reserved some of their ill-gotten gains to enhance Melbourne.

    Sydneysider crims, on the other hand, always lined their pockets first and last and everywhere in between. Despite the Sydney in particular and the NSW coast in general being most spectacular.

    Anyway, I couldn’t give a shit about either trying to take the ascendency. It still is rather amusing to watch them wipe the shit, if not the blood, off their hands.

    I’d say all this Calabrian Mafioso Liberal connections criminal stuff has come about because of the the RC into the unions. Wouldn’t you say?

    Abbott’s already come unstuck on the HIP RC. Now let him look square in the face the criminal proceeds pouring into the coffers of the Liberals.

    Blowback to a political jerk, especially one so deserved of it, one so beholden to corporates, is so nice to watch.

  14. Who is ” Blondie”?

    Associate of Blondie, also with name suppressed was granted a visa by Amanda Vanstone in 2005

    He was granted the visa against the advice of dept of Immigration & the Federal police.
    What is it with Amanda and connections to things Italian … Appointed ambassador to Italy?

    http://www.watoday.com.au/national/immigration-bungle-leaves-convicted-mafioso-in-community-20140523-38ufr.html

    What IS the connection between the Melbourne Mafia & some sections of the Liberal Party

  15. Kezza2

    Having read about the colonial era Victorian politics there were some interesting sorts hanging around Spring Street, Victoria has had its versions of the Obeids and even today Mick Gatto is a regulator at an Italian restaurant just down from Parliament house.

  16. Fulvio Sammut

    Where Gatto is a regular was also part of the area once controlled by Squizzy.

    Its quite interesting how things often never change.

  17. Let me get this right.

    Abbott is entitled to $60,000 for doing absolutely nothing, except having a kid, while Bronnie has to eat a whole dinner, cooked by someone else, to become entitled to a lazy $50,000.

    I imagine that these two would have shared a wink, a nod and a smirk when they cooked up the idea of stopping 25 year olds from picking up Newstart upon being sacked.

    Everyone contributes, right?

  18. [kezza2
    Posted Saturday, May 24, 2014 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    Dee @ 376

    Re your link: 😆

    And wouldn’t you say that Abbott, by extension, is no student of history?

    Because I am no longer allowed to say ????, ????????, ??????, absolute ????, I will just say he is the Greatest And Most Ignorant Jerk in Modern Times.

    And that I am relishing watching the Greatest Boxer of All Times Bash Himself Up – a la Liar Liar.]

    That’s better.

  19. Some here do overuse the spiv word

    We can’t be supportive of people going to uni then complain that they work for money.

    The word spiv should be kept for those that engage is questionable behavior otherwise I could call Ms Rein a spiv for operating a JSA provider.

  20. Kezza

    Tradies invariably have their worksite radios blaring all morning on the Hadley, Jones, Laws red neck types, and then they sit down for smoko with the Telegraph type rags in their hands.

    I know one who listens exclusively to Jones, Hadley, Oldfield in the day then Bolt at night …. 5 days a week.

    You can imagine the disgusting level of his political comments, especially about asylum seekers, Julia Gillard, and carbon pricing.

  21. Quite likely that these future tradies will be considering their vote.

    Apprenticeship funding changes announced in the federal budget May 14, 2014

    The main change for apprentices is the scrapping of the ‘tools for trade’ allowance and the introduction of a ‘HECS’ style loan programme.

    Unveiled by Treasurer Joe Hockey on Tuesday, the budget included $439 million over five years to establish the previously announced Trade Support Loans Program under which apprentices undertaking Certificate III or Certificate IV qualifications in carpentry, plumbing, tiling or a range of other occupations featured on the National Skills

    Apprenticeship Needs List can access up to $20,000 in loans at concessional rates over the course of their training.

    But the government will save $914.6 million over four years in tax-exempt payments to support apprentices to purchase their own tools by scrapping the Tools For Your Trade Program.

    A further $1 billion will be slashed from the training budget over five years by scrapping ten further programs including the Accelerated Australian Apprenticeships Program, the Australian Apprenticeships Mentoring Program, the Workforce English Language and Literacy Program and the Apprenticeship to Business Owner Program – albeit with this being partially offset by an allocation of $476 million over four years to establish a new Industry Skills Fund which is expected to deliver 121,5000 training places and 74,300 support services supporting the needs of small to medium enterprises which cannot be readily met by the national training system.

    Australian Industry Group Chief Executive Officer Innes Willox welcomed the new skills fund and the Trade Support Loan Scheme.“We are,however, concerned with the cessation of the longstanding Workplace English Language and Literacy (WELL) program,” he added.“Currently, over four million working Australians do not have adequate literacy and numeracy skills for the modern economy. We must ensure that developing these vital skills does not lose priority.

    ”Like Willox, Housing Industry Association Chief Executive – Industry Policy and Media Relations Graham Wolfe also welcomed the new apprentice loans, the terms of which he added are comparable to university students under the Higher Education Loan Programme.

    But Wolfe slammed the abolition of the National Workforce Development Fund (one of the ten aforementioned programs to be cut) and some of the other programs, noting that the new skills fund has a much narrower focus in terms of sectors covered (health and biomedical products; mining, oil and gas equipment technology and services; and advanced manufacturing, including defence and aerospace) of which construction is not one.

    Wolfe further expressed disappointment at a decision to abandon the final round of the National Rental Affordability Scheme (saving $235.2 million over three years), which he said had delivered thousands of affordable homes to moderate and low income families, as well as a lack of investment support for housing to complement a $50 billion plus splurge on transport infrastructure.“Tonight’s Federal Budget has delivered spending cuts across the board, many impacting on Australia’s residential building industry,” Wolfe said.“While it is framed in the context of addressing the budget deficit, this will be at the expense of a number of worthwhile programs.”

    This article was originally published: http://sourceable.net/skills-funding-overhaul-gets-mixed-industry-response/

  22. Fulvio:

    Vanstone’s Wiki page reminds you of the many errors and lapses in judgement which occurred while she was Immigration Minister.

  23. Vandstone flew a particular very senior PS to Rome, up the pointy end of the plane and into a 6 star hotel for 4 weeks, to set up her ambassadorial wine cellar.

    Nothing illegal or corrupt perhaps, but waste on a grand scale.

  24. mexican:

    A spiv isn’t necessarily someone who goes to uni and gets a job earning money, but someone who earns their money through dodgy means.

  25. BW
    [Abbott is entitled to $60,000 for doing absolutely nothing, except having a kid, while Bronnie has to eat a whole dinner, cooked by someone else, to become entitled to a lazy $50,000.]

    Be fair, Bronnie only had to do it for one evening. Abbott had to accept $20,000 each year for three years.

    And, don’t forget, because of his salary he couldn’t even claim Frances as a dependent student child for those three years because of the scholarship. Or could he?

    How much did he salary sacrifice over that period of time?

    How much did he rearrange his affairs?

    How much did he claim for two dependent children, over the age of 18 but under 22, during that time? We’ll never know, I suppose.

  26. Fess, it reminds me that when you lay down with dogs you wake up with fleas…

    Dave, one day at the same time, we can dream…

  27. Having been in for drinkies more than once in the Speaker’s courtyard, adjacent to the actual office, I can assure you it is a 5 star venue. Used for visiting delegations and the like.

    The Senate Presidents is pretty spiffy as well. Unlike many spaces in Parliament House which you can hire out, the Presiding Officers suites are not.

  28. Well, as Abbott netted a lazy $60,000 freebie for his daughter’s education, it follows that the other calibered offspring should get a similar but handily earlier start in the form of PPL.

  29. [ Does she bathe in the stuff? ]

    Oldies get kero, Bronnies gets good liquor.

    Age of Entitlement well and truly with us then.

  30. kezza2,

    [Howard kowtowed to the tradies aspirationals.

    They all think of themselves as would-be-if-they-could-be small businesses. In fact, many of them got an ABN, got a GST-exemption, and went for it.]

    You’ve nailed it.

    And no doubt you recall that their shift from employees to ABN with their GST-exemption and all was originally a top-down caper cooked up by the construction companies’ owners. Then, the ATO got wind of this blatant dodge and was within days of dropping the hammer when Howard blocked the ATO and told the tradies that now they were, wtte: Free at last! Free at last! Lord Almighty, free at last ………… to vote Liberal!

    To visualise how momentous the Tradie Emancipation Day has been for Liberal Party history, we only need to play the video clip of Howard in the last week of his landslide 2004 election triumph being mobbed by adoring Tasmanian Timber Workers like he was an Ashes winning Cricket Captain on the MCG pitch. Howard had seen his wildest fantasy come true, so little wonder that it tore him apart to hand over his crown to Peter Costello.

  31. In the United Kingdom, the word ‘spiv’ is slang for a type of petty criminal who deals in illicit, typically black market, goods: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiv

    Someone isn’t a spiv because they do well in business or professions through enterprise, talent and hard honest work. Nor is being a resident of Sydney and being financially well off sufficient to meet the definition. They are if they make their money through dodgy means, hidden commissions, influence peddling and so forth, especially if illegal.

    So far as I know, Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison don’t fit the definition of ‘spivs’. But if it’s good enough for Liberals to call union officials thugs and imply that a Labor PM is a criminal without evoidence…

  32. Fulvio Sammut@389

    Fess, it reminds me that when you lay down with dogs you wake up with fleas…

    Dave, one day at the same time, we can dream…

    I rather like the reply – wtte to bugger off – the punters will luurve that –

    [ “There is nothing illegal about it, there is nothing improper about it,” he added.

    “It’s the use of a room that every other Member of Parliament does often. Are you chasing up all the other people that held fundraisers at Parliament House?” ]

    The attempted use of the *look over there* is again noted.

    bishop – as someone who is said to know HoR rules backwards – that might be reason why she thinks she can get away with it – only it will come across to punters that she fails to understand what the office of speaker is all about – ie she doesn’t even know the rules read frontwards –

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/speaker-bronwyn-bishop-under-fire-for-hosting-liberal-fundraisers-in-her-parliament-house-office-20140524-zrn5n.html#ixzz32cEgLXXO

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