Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has a somewhat less bruising result for the Abbott government than it has lately been accustomed to, as Campbell Newman’s state government girds itself for a difficult by-election.

Galaxy has produced a poll of federal voting intention in Queensland shows the Coalition leading 52-48, representing a swing to Labor since the election of 5%, with further detail presumably forthcoming courtesy of the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: The primary votes are 33% for Labor (steady since February, as is the two-party result), 41% for the Coalition (steady), 7% for the Greens (steady) and 12% for Palmer United (up one). The poll also has a surprisingly high 48% in support of the GP co-payment with 50% opposed, 46% and 48% for increasing the GST, and 25% and 72% for raising the pension age to 70.

In other Queensland news, it today emerged that a state by-election looms in the inner Brisbane seat of Stafford following the resignation of Liberal National Party member Chris Davis. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. 425

    But if Abbott gets win of the challenge before the party room meeting to depose him, he may well run to the GG for a DD to get those few extra weeks in office.

  2. [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, May 24, 2014 at 6:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Sorry, kezza, but I can’t see how that was the fault of the church.

    Your uncle was entitled to his part of the inheritance. What it was spent on was up to him.]

    Lately, you seem to miss the boat on many arguments.

    And you miss the point totally on this issue.

    The legacy was to the Church not to my uncle.

    In case you still don’t get it, my uncle had no say over his inheritance, it just went straight into the Vatican coffers.

  3. Warms my heart to know that emails mocking Rabbott & Hockey are doing the rounds of a corporate giant dominated by tory fans.

    For the last few years I’ve copped many an email mocking the ALP.

  4. I for one don’t think David Murray is the right person for the financial sector inquiry, the bloke is too narrow minded in his world view and is too overly negative, he openly disagrees with the views on debt expressed by current day leading bankers which indicates to me that he has been out of the loop for too long to have anything relevant to say.

  5. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Saturday, May 24, 2014 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
    I for one don’t think David Murray is the right person for the financial sector inquiry, the bloke is too narrow minded in his world view and is too overly negative, he openly disagrees with the views on debt expressed by current day leading bankers which indicates to me that he has been out of the loop for too long to have anything relevant to say.]

    And he’s too bloody close to Janet Albrechsten for my liking.

  6. I believe that the Egyptians rely heavily on food exports from Australia and on military support from the US.

    Make a phone call, Julie, you wombat.

    It was so easy when you asked the Labor Government to do it.

  7. I’m sure David Murray will tell the Liberal Government exactly what they want to hear. Much like the Commission of Audit. But probably more insidious.

  8. kezza2

    Is he, in what way?

    Yes that is a serious question as I wasn’t aware of any connection.

    Janet has one thing going for her she is more balanced than Miranda Davine

  9. zoomster

    In case it still needs a bit more spelling out, the case of inheritance is tied up with the insistence on celibacy (i.e. priests cannot marry) in the Catholic church.

    The Church wanted no truck with the specific vocational aspirant having to give his inheritance to any children.

    It all had to go to the Church.

    They could indulge in any adulterous affair they wanted, but no children of any coupling would be recognised as legitimate heirs.

    Didn’t take long for that to be extended to child abuse, did it?

    As long as it didn’t interfere with the monies flowing into the Vatican coffers.

  10. Player One @ 427

    [That would be because he’s a moron.]

    Careful lest you have ASIO knocking down your door in the early hours for revealing state secrets!

  11. [Kerry Chikarovski was better than Peter Collins]

    I don’t remember Collins so much, which makes him look good next to his next few successors.

  12. The news.com.au article by Samantha Maiden on on BBishop and the $50,000 fundraiser is presumably to be printed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph and other Sunday Murdoch tabloids.

    Murdoch media seems to be heading in two opposing directions at this time – on one hand trying to support Abbott and Hockey to the hilt, while on the other running stories that are quite damaging to Abbott’s government.

    Perhaps the editors are desperately trying to keep Rupert happy while at the same time not wanting their circulation to drop dramatically as unhappy readers stop buying the papers.

  13. Considering how the Liberals are traveling Julie Bishop may well turn out to be their best leadership contender.

    Just how will the ALP attach her?

    From what I can gather she hasn’t introduced any policies which could be seen as directly harmful to any particular ALP constituency.

  14. slothy@465

    Player One @ 427

    That would be because he’s a moron.


    Careful lest you have ASIO knocking down your door in the early hours for revealing state secrets!

    Hahaha! I’m not worried by … gurk!

  15. slothy

    Ah , the old Russian joke.

    [ A man arrested in Red Square for shouting “Brezhnev is an idiot” was today sentenced to 20 years jail. Five years for insulting the head of state and 15 years for revealing state secrets.]

  16. Well, it’s true that Bishop has been one of the better performers via not being a trainwreck. (Although it helps to have Abbott personally manage the biggest stuff-ups in the portfolio.)

  17. … ahem … testing … testing …

    This is Player One here. Tony Abbott is a great Australian, and we are lucky to have him! He is my hero!

  18. zoomster,

    As part of the conditions of becoming a priest, monk or nun in the Catholic Church one had to sign over all future inheritances to the Church. So I assume there was a legacy of some sort, and that legacy had to go to the Church, probably to the order he was in, specifically. The Church seems to have collected that legacy, even though there were needy family members. Churches are really good at tying up legacies.

  19. [Murdoch media seems to be heading in two opposing directions at this time – on one hand trying to support Abbott and Hockey to the hilt, while on the other running stories that are quite damaging to Abbott’s government.]

    Other way around, Citizen.

    Trying to support the government (i.e. the Libs), while trying to damage Abbott and Hockey.

  20. The NSW special commission into child abuse was singled out for attention by the UN in a report on the Vatican,

    Apparently diplomatic immunity was used to block inquiries. UN not happy. Its the UN body that deals with torture and someting. Have forgotten title.

  21. [ As part of the conditions of becoming a priest, monk or nun in the Catholic Church one had to sign over all future inheritances to the Church. ]

    Sure, being a priest costs money – but think of the fringe benefits!

  22. mexicanbeemer

    Janet Albrechten’s husband (well, estranged or now divorced), John O’Sullivan, was David Murray’s chief legal counsel at the Commonwealth Bank.

    O’Sullivan was also the chief architect of the sale of Telstra, and the $5 billion sale of Sydney Airport.

    Has prolific Liberal Party pedigree.

    While Albrechsten may have exchanged squeezes, Kroger for O’Sullivan, they’re both Liberal party stalwarts and shared the same ideology – I think it must have been bods over sods.

    (btw, had to laugh at her disparagement of sole parents for years before she suddenly became one, and then it was all different . . . )

    Nevertheless, Albrechsten while reaping the benefits of being the wife of the first almost billionaire per year corporate lawyer (while coming from the same migrant roots as Gillard) was ready to throw that all away to copulate her fantasy with anti-Costello-ite Kroger.

    Yet, she still barracks for the father of her children. And that’s what’s needed for the children on Libs to get ahead.

    You don’t burn your bridges for principle in the Liberal party.

  23. Tone now thinking of a DD according to the Guardian. Madness for anyone else in the same position to even think about it, but Abbott is so detached from reality anything is possible. Hitler did after all decide open an eastern front at the same time as fighting a western one. We all know what happened to him.

  24. @MB/469

    If I remember correctly, When ALP were having an identity/leadership crises.

    In an interview Joe Hockey said “JOE HOCKEY: This is the same old Kevin. This is the same old Kevin Rudd. A leopard doesn’t change his spots, he won’t tell us what the debt is, he won’t tell us what the deficit is.”

    So yeah, who do would you believe 😛

  25. I haven’t read each of the last 300 posts but are people seriously suggesting that there’s a good chance that Abbott will get dumped as leader by his own party? No way imo. The only way he’ll get dumped is by the Australian people in 2016. I wish it were otherwise but I can’t see any other way.

  26. Meanwhile in eastern Ukraine and in particular a major centre of pro Russian forces ,Donetsk has a very interesting past.

    [Donetsk

    The city was founded in 1869 by a Welsh businessman, John Hughes, who constructed a steel plant and several coal mines in the region; the town was thus named Yuzovka (Юзовка) in recognition of his role in its founding (“Yuz” being a Russian or Ukrainian approximation of Hughes)]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk

  27. I’m torn.

    I believe it would be madness for Abbott to pull the DD trigger (assuming the CEFC(A) Bill is rejected again)

    OTOH I believe Abbott is mad.

  28. Thanks Kezza2

    Yes I am aware of Janet A’s politics, wasn’t aware of her marriage background although I am pretty sure everyone is familiar with Michael Kroger

  29. Coorey of AFR reckons that Abbott just becomes more doggedly intransigent, the greater the pressure put on him to change his ideas.

    In relation to the budget:

    [As the battle ahead unfolds, MPs will be nervous that unless the government can convince voters of the merits of the budget, the Prime Minister’s propensity to dig in his heels the more he is urged to do something risks dragging out the more damaging debates for months, if not for much of the duration of this term.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/23/galaxy-52-48-to-federal-coalition-in-queensland/#comment-1986839

    This staring contest will be very interesting to watch. Who will break first, Abbott or his MPs? Meanwhile Labor, Greens and Palmer just need to keep applying the pressure…

  30. Kezza2

    Earlier we were on the topic of Russell Broadbent and other liberal mps and fhe latest liberal fundraising efforts attached to mafia identities. I Find it hard to believe that Broadbent was unaware of the mafia links in light of previous investigations.

    As per my previous link

    [The Australian Federal Police is refusing to comment, but the investigation appears to have stalled. Whether it should have, though, is an open question. For donations did exist. And four Liberal politicians – Payne, Bruce Billson, Russell Broadbent and an unnamed NSW state MP – all discussed the visa case with Madafferi’s supporters or contacted Vanstone’s office about the matter.
    Payne’s involvement in the Madafferi case began in late 2003 when she was approached at a charity function by three NSW businessmen, including the man named in the 2004 file note, the furniture store owner Nick Scali.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/crime-and-banishment-20090222-8erb.html#ixzz32cggSlot

  31. Tom H:

    Not suggesting, but just noting that it has been a feature of 3 parliaments in the last 6 years. Not counting BoF who fell on his sword first term.

  32. victoria

    [. I Find it hard to believe that Broadbent was unaware of the mafia links ]
    Not to mention Veranda Manstone.

  33. [433
    shellbell
    Posted Saturday, May 24, 2014 at 6:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Kerry Chikarovski was better than Peter Collins
    ]

    I’ll raise you Bruce McDonald and Peter Debnam

  34. Abbott’s negotiating style on the budget will be his usual one of trying to threaten, bully and belittle the Senate into accepting the budget, with the boosting and support of the Murdochracy. That approach worked well (not) in the House of representatives in the last Parliament.

    Will Abbott go for a Double Dissolution? Well he squibbed on a motion of no confidence in the last Parliament.

  35. citizen
    [This staring contest will be very interesting to watch. Who will break first, Abbott or his MPs? Meanwhile Labor, Greens and Palmer just need to keep applying the pressure…]

    This is hilarious.

    Tony Abbott’s family is so much like my own – except ours was double in size and probably twice the trouble for my parents.

    However, when you are considered to be the chosen one, and you are also a larrikin, you are supposed to dig in your heels when you think you’re right.

    You will do this every day for as long as necessary, and if you falter, that will mean you didn’t really believe what you were saying.

    You had to be able to bear repeated whippings. Without giving in. And once you’d prevailed, you were the winner.

    Abbott’s of the same vintage as my family. Of the same mixed marriage as my parents. Of the same convoluted shit that was dished out by Archbishop Mannix of Melbourne. And the same crap espoused by Bob Santamaria.

    Abbott knows to flinch now will see the whole edifice of his being come tumbling down. He’s not quite over being nice. He’s not quite over the winking funny man. But when he turns, he’s gunna turn mean.

    And it won’t be pretty. Because he thinks he’s right and if laughing along with Mitch doesn’t work, then he’ll just lay down the law. Just like his father did when he got exasperated with young Tony and the girls.

  36. There seems to be a simple pattern with Abbott.

    Cadbury, sponsors PolliePedal gets $16m grant.
    Amgen, Roche and Pfizer sponsors PolliePedal, gets $20b medical future fund
    Whitehouse private college gives $60k daughter scholarship, Private education gets govt aid and free competitors TAFE get boned
    Rupert gives $millions of free promotion, Australia network and NBN gets boned
    Big Mining fill Liberal coffers, MRRT and Pollution Tax get removed

    And so it goes

  37. [433
    shellbell
    Posted Saturday, May 24, 2014 at 6:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Kerry Chikarovski was better than Peter Collins
    I’ll raise you Bruce McDonald and Peter Debnam]

    Yes, most NSW lib leaders are terrible

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