Seats of the week: Fadden and Moncrieff

This week’s Seat of the Week double-up accounts for the northern two-third of the Gold Coast, served by Liberal National Party members Stuart Robert and Steven Ciobo.

Fadden

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Fadden covers the northern part of the Gold Coast municipality, from Gaven and Labrador in the south through Coomera, Pimpama and Ormeau to Logan River in the north, with the Pacific Motorway forming most of its western boundary. This area’s intensive population growth has caused the electorate to be progressively drawn into the Gold Coast since its creation in 1977, at which time it contained none of its present territory, instead covering outer southern Brisbane and the Gold Coast’s rural hinterland. The redistribution caused by the expansion of parliament in 1984 drew it into Brisbane, extending as far northwards as Salisbury and Rochedale, with the Logan River as its southern boundary. It first infringed upon the Gold Coast when it acquired Coomera at the 1996 election, the migration being completed with the exchange of Redland Bay in the north for Southport in the south at the 2004 election. The ongoing population explosion caused it to shed nearly 14,000 voters inland of its current boundary at the most recent Queensland redistribution before the 2010 election.

With the exception of 1983, Fadden in its various guises has been won at every election by the conservatives, meaning the the Liberal Party prior to the 2010 merger and the Liberal National Party thereafter. The inaugural member was Don Cameron, who had held Griffith for the Liberals since 1966. The 1975-engorged margin was whittled away at the 1977 and 1980 elections, then overturned with David Beddall’s victory for Labor with the election of the Hawke government. Cameron returned to parliament a year later at a by-election caused by Jim Killen’s retirement in Moreton, which became the third seat he represented. The 1984 redistribution made Fadden notionally Liberal, causing David Beddall to jump ship for Rankin. The seat was then won for the Liberals by David Jull, who had held the seat of Bowman from 1975 until his defeat in 1983. Jull’s margins were less than 5% until 1996, but generally well into double digits thereafter.

Jull was succeeded on his retirement at the 2007 election by Stuart Robert, a former army intelligence officer. Robert was said to have played a role in “rounding up support” for Tony Abbott ahead of his challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership in December 2009, and was elevated afterwards to shadow parliamentary secretary in the defence portfolio. He was further promoted after the 2010 election to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of defence science, technology and personnel, which was rebadged as Assistant Defence Minister following the 2013 election victory.

Moncrieff

Teal numbers indicate two-party majority for the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Moncrieff covers the central Gold Coast from Miami north through Surfers Paradise to Nerang Head, and inland to Nerang and Highland Park. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, previous to which the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson since 1949, and by Moreton beforehand. Moncrieff originally extended deep into rural territory at Beaudesert, before assuming its current coastal orientation with Beaudesert’s transfer to Forde in 1996. Prior to Moncrieff’s creation the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson, which had itself been created with the previous expansion of parliament in 1949. The Gold Coast had originally been contained within the electorate of Moreton, which has since migrated into Brisbane’s southern suburbs. The area has had conservative representation without interruption since 1906, with McPherson passing from Country Party to Liberal Party control in 1972, and Moncrieff being in Liberal and more recently Liberal National Party hands since its creation.

Steven Ciobo assumed the seat at the 2001 election after the retirement of its inaugural member, Kathy Sullivan, who had previously been a Senator since 1974, establishing what remains a record as the longest serving female member of federal parliament. Ciobo emerged through Liberal ranks as a member of the Right faction, associated with former ministers Santo Santoro and Warwick Parer and state party powerbroker Michael Caltabiano. He rose to the shadow ministry in the small business portfolio after the defeat of the Howard government, which was elevated to a shadow cabinet position when Malcolm Turnbull ascended to the leadership in September 2008. However, he was demoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolios of tourism, arts, youth and sport when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009 and relegated to the back bench after the August 2010 election, which was generally reckoned to be a consequence of his support for Turnbull. Following the 2013 election victory he won promotion to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

621 comments on “Seats of the week: Fadden and Moncrieff”

Comments Page 5 of 13
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  2. bemused@196

    1934pc@188

    bemused 182

    “” there is an element of Darwin at work here.””

    We should not forget WE are evolved ANIMALS!.

    Prone to cockup’s and mistakes!.

    Indeed we are and we also do stupid things which most of us somehow survive.

    IIRC that bloke had already had a couple of close calls and was a qualified electrician who should have been very well aware of electrical hazards.

    Anyone who gets up in the roof space should have the sense to turn off the electricity at the meter box.

  3. Wayne Swan in The Saturday Paper

    [They claim we have unsustainable levels of debt, but the savings in health and education announced in the budget have not been used to pay down debt.

    Instead, these new savings have been used to plug the billion-dollar holes left by the abolition of the mining tax, the carbon tax and the removal of measures to stop multinational profit shifting and a whole bunch of other kickbacks to the top end of town. They’ve also used these savings to fund new coalition election commitments.

    As a result, deficits are broadly the same as they were in the pre-election fiscal statement when we left office. And, stunningly, net debt has not gone down – it has gone up from 12.5 per cent in September last year to 14 per cent in 2017-18. While our level of net debt is very low at 14 per cent, it’s higher than we’ve experienced in any year since 1997-98.

    In addition, deficits across the forward estimates are not dramatically different from the deficits forecast by the last Labor government, yet they will be bundled up and spouted as an example of wasteful spending despite once again being some of the best outcomes in the developed world.

    So we’ve had a lot of sound and fury about deficit and debt and neither has gone down substantially. Why? They’re starving the beast: a strategy imported from the United States. Reagan, then Bush and now the Tea Party have all employed this strategy, which sets about shrinking the size of the government by, first of all, driving the budget into deficit, then concentrating all political firepower on the need to cut expenditure to fix the deficit.

    The perfect case in point of this is the argument Tony Abbott appears to be making, with the help of his Liberal Party premier mates, for an increase in the GST.

    …

    Ultimately, this budget is one step down the road of shifting the balance towards corporations and away from working people via less corporate tax and a higher GST. And a smaller government. A tamed beast, indeed.]

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/topic/politics/2014/05/17/the-ideology-driving-the-abbott-governments-first-budget/1400248800

  4. lizsi

    I have seen some tweets re Prissy complaining re JBishop being pushed about. I actually saw the footage in ABC tv last night. The angle from their footage shows JBishop and her minders clinbing up stairs right into the path if the students. Why didnt her minders initially clear a path for her?
    Being a cynic, i reckon this was a ploy to beat the students with.
    The fibs can get bloody stuffed

  5. bemused @190

    its not very well known, but it has been mentioned in various economic circles.

    you can find quite a few articles on google if you just type in “cash flow tax australia”

  9. Paul Keating’s analysis is the reason why labor can go to the next election and say that the libs are just trying to slug the poor with a GST, and don’t trust them. I’m all for constructive politics, but I wouldn’t give them an inch on this. They have de-legitimised themselves. Don’t give them an inch.

  10. [ Tricot

    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 1:13 pm | Permalink

    Not much point getting upset about how the Americans chose to use English.

    There are probably thousands of other examples better than mine but not worth getting oneself in a knot about them I would have thought.

    The beauty and strength of English is that is pillages and borrows from other languages and feasts off them.
    ]

    —————————————————

    My first 2 mistakes when I went to live in the the US was our ‘take away’ was ‘to go ‘ in the US …… and the fact that all US money bills were the same colour ( or color in the US ) …. and I mistakenly gave some shopkeeper a $100 bill when it was supposed to be a $ 1 – luckily he was honest and laughed with me at my mistake. Americans were so fascinated by my coloured Aussie notes – the kids there soon cleaned me out of Aussie notes as souveniers 🙂

  12. victoria

    I couldn’t bear to watch it all, but Prissy’s moral indignation was all about the cheek of privileged students who have the cheapest degrees, the best educational opportunities, having the gall to attack an innocent woman (well perhaps not the latter, but that was his tone).

    He omitted to mention that the students were protesting about the changes which might be to their detriment.

    Overnight I heard a discussion about the harsh new conditions for the unemployed. A doctor who rang was really angry, said it would definitely lead to crime and suicides, called TA a nincompoop – he was moving towards something stronger but was quickly shut down for ‘language’.

  13. Phil Vee@197

    Bemused at 182 asked about Matthew Fuller :
    he was not the one with his own staple gun, that was Sweeney. Fuller was a qualified electrician though and this report from the Oz gives more detail. It is odd that a qualified sparky is described as untrained but that’s the Oz for you.

    Thanks Phil for correcting the shortcomings of my memory.

    It seems to me the matter was properly dealt with.

  14. [They have de-legitimised themselves. Don’t give them an inch.]

    Yep, dont go along with their completely concocted ‘debt crisis’. As soon as the ALP compromises it’ll looks as if the LNP position has some merit – when it has none.

    Here’s what they did: they spent the first 6 months massively infalting debt, then used it as an excuse for their unnecessaey,nasty, shitty little agenda,whivch is completely un-Australian.

    No one bought it -even the usual suspects in the Murdoch press are lukewarm on it.

    Dont go making these ideological extremists look like they have anything useful to offer this country, other than their heads in 2016.

  16. I’d be pretty sure that a word like ‘gotten’ has a very long history, probably as long as any other word in the English language – it’s just never been regarded as part of ‘correct’ usage.

  17. [165
    Greensborough Growler

    I think Costello’s point is that the rich are getting a tax break because they buy more fresh food than processed food.]

    GST is NOT applied to a wide range of foods, not merely fresh food. The ATO gives these as examples of foods that are GST-free:

    bread and bread rolls without icing or filling
    cooking ingredients such as flour, sugar and cake mixes
    fats and oils for cooking
    milk, cream, cheese and eggs
    spices and sauces
    fruit juice containing at least 90% by volume of juice
    bottled drinking water
    tea and coffee (unless it’s ready to drink)
    baby food and infant formula
    meats for people to eat (except prepared meals or snacks)
    fruit, vegetables, fish and soup
    spreads, such as honey, jam and peanut butter
    breakfast cereals
    rice, cooked or uncooked (but not hot)

    GST is imposed on food served in restaurants, including take-away and drive-thru dining establishments.

    If those on low incomes spend more on food that does attract GST, this argues in favour of exempting them from GST.

  18. don@202

    bemused@196

    1934pc@188

    bemused 182

    “” there is an element of Darwin at work here.””

    We should not forget WE are evolved ANIMALS!.

    Prone to cockup’s and mistakes!.


    Indeed we are and we also do stupid things which most of us somehow survive.

    IIRC that bloke had already had a couple of close calls and was a qualified electrician who should have been very well aware of electrical hazards.


    Anyone who gets up in the roof space should have the sense to turn off the electricity at the meter box.

    A good start but not sufficient IMHO.

    I say that because it provides safety while the work is being done, but when the power is turned back on, it can leave an electrified roof cavity.

    I really would like to see ALL homes fitted with an RCD. Then when the power was turned back on, if there was a fault it would possibly trip, or if someone touched anything in an electrified roof cavity it would trip then.

    Should get one installed myself. 😐

  19. Andrews is hardly alone amongst his colleagues in being a hypocrite. I’m just shocked that the Oz magazine has tweeted those snarky words!

  20. Reading PvO’s column today he talks about numerous Coalition policy contradictions.

    I’d say it’s an extraordinary contradiction to on the one hand demonize the ‘carbon tax’ (basically a broadening of the GST) which came with compensation and on the other hand connive to hike up the current GST.

  21. A. Who was mostly to blame for english?
    B. The english.

    Despite efforts by people all over the world for several centuries, no-one has been able to come up with a satisfactory solution.

    We will just have to keep trying.

  23. briefly

    I incorrectly use the term “fresh” instead of raw, unadulterated.

    I never quite understood the problem with the cake. 🙂

  25. Essendon showed last night why they are suck a sick and bitter club by booing an unconscious umpire and Adam Goodes.

    The sooner ASADA effectively chucks them out as a team the better.

  26. briefly,

    The major problem for Australia going forward is a lack of revenue to pay for the services provided by Government. So, eliminating a tax without compesation somewhere else in the Budget is not going to fly, comrade. The aim of every Government should be to spread the pain fairly and proportionately. If the rich are obtaining a tax advantage from their purchasing behaviour, then it should realistically, be a target for Government investigation.

  27. My favourite RC would be one on the Vietnam War.

    I would want it to be funded so that EVERY SINGLE ONE of the 32,000 vets on disability pension could get up and tell the RC about the impact of the war on them and their families.

    It is the least we can do at this stage.

    Then the family members of the thousands of physical casualties, including of suicides, would be able to get up and tell their stories.

  28. Diogs,

    Did Adelaide FC provide another most shameful night in your life opportunity? Or, has the memory lapsed.

  29. [Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    Essendon showed last night why they are suck a sick and bitter club by booing an unconscious umpire and Adam Goodes.]

    What happened?

  31. For a few years after the GST was increased, household spending grew faster than the economy (nominal incomes rose faster than real output) and households increased their consumption at the expense of savings. GST collections really did grow faster than State outlays for a few years.

    By contrast, for the last few years nominal incomes have grown very slowly and households have also rebuilt the savings at the expense of consumption.

    The result is that the growth rate in GST collections has fallen in the last few years and the tax now brings in only about 5.5% of the economy.

    There are things we can do about this…

    We can start to grow nominal incomes again…
    We can expand disposable incomes rather than (by increasing taxes) reducing them…
    We can reduce the cost of housing, which soaks up a huge share of disposable incomes…
    We can grew the economy more quickly…
    We can increase the productive capacity of the economy by improving investment and abolishing the tax shelters, which actually erode investment…

    Increasing the GST or broadening the base is a lazy idea that if implemented would mitigate against all the things we should do to improve economic welfare for those on average incomes or less.

    It is a lousy idea and should be opposed by anyone with an interest in a strong economy and an equitable distribution of the tax burden.

  32. BW,

    For what purpose?

    If you want to hear Vet issues go down the local RSL. They’ll fill your boots for you.

  33. victoria

    [24 year old on Newstart will lose $2496 a year while someone on $200,000 will lose $400 a year. Who’s doing the heavy lifting? #auspol]

    This is a simple yet powerful message that Labor NEED to promote ad nauseum.

  34. [Mr Pyne called on Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to join the government in strongly condemning the “incomprehensible” behaviour of the students who were protesting proposed cuts to higher education funding.]

    Hilarious. WTF does this have to do with Shorten? It’s the coalition who are slashing education funding, and if Pyne can’t live with students voicing their views about it, then perhaps he should find himself another career.

  36. GG

    [Did Adelaide FC provide another most shameful night in your life opportunity? Or, has the memory lapsed.]

    It was “the most humble night of my life”; I was paraphrasing Murdoch.

    Some people got it.

    BW

    Umpie got knocked out during the Essendon Swans match. Some of the Essendon crowd booed him while he was unconscious being stretchered off.

    They are a very bitter, twisted crowd at Essendon.

  37. A sales tax does not only fall on the consumers of the product in question. Part of the cost of the tax is carried by the producers too, in the form of lower prices and lower production. So if, for example, we put a GST on apples, all those involved in apple production will lose while consumers will also see their real disposable incomes fall.

    The BIGGEST SINGLE PROBLEM in this economy is not tax. It is the very low growth rate in real per capita disposable incomes. If we do things that further depress real incomes, we will push down job creation and actually make the fiscal position worse.

    We have to concentrate on boosting incomes rather than finding new ways to reduce them.

  39. GG

    [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    BW,

    For what purpose?]

    Because there has never been a public accounting for the decision to go to war, the treatment of Australian soldiers during the war and the treatment of Australian veterans, their families and friends after the war.

    Because those responsible for the decisions that destroyed the lives of tens of thousands of Australians have never had to face the consequences of their actions.

    Because the war mongers keep wanting to take us to new wars as if the consequences are minor and temporary.

    Finally, because the vets deserve the opportunity to put their side of the story on the public record.

  40. diog

    I think the Essendon Crowd see all as enemies due to denial that their “golden boy” Hird could do wrong.

    It can get ugly

  42. Briefly

    [Increasing the GST or broadening the base is a lazy idea that if implemented would mitigate against all the things we should do to improve economic welfare for those on average incomes or less.

    It is a lousy idea and should be opposed by anyone with an interest in a strong economy and an equitable distribution of the tax burden.]

    Agreed

  43. Diogs,

    I’ve always regarded Essendon supporters as Collingwood supporters that can read. So, I’m not surprised at all.

  44. While I was once very opposed to the GST and especially the GST on food, I am now rather more inclined towards it because it can become in effect a tax on the most well off – PROVIDED it is accompanied by a clear INDEXED tax rebate to compensate ordinary people.

    What I am vaguely thinking is that a full GST tax rebate is given to EVERYONE based on the necessities of a decent life – eg food, clothing, travel to work plus weekend visits, a TV, washing machine, rent, electricity, water medicines, school books etc.

    A second rebate would also be given perhaps at 75% to cater for what we might consider normal living “luxuries” eg takeaway one a fortnight,movie one a month, probably a low cost car, petrol, basic home maintenance (eg plumbers, electricians, some books or magazines, some grog and the occasional luxury food.

    A third tier perhaps at 50% might cater for low cost “luxuries” trip to visit the in-laws annually, normal wedding gifts etc, dine out 4 times an year, an occasional bottle of decent wine ($20 NOT $2000)

    No point arguing about exactly what is in each tier – that is not the point. My idea is that the Rebate caters for all those expenses people on a median income will normally incur.

    After that it is luxuries and if people chose to dine on lobster weekly then they should pay the price. In effect it provides a sort of luxury tax that actually consumes the income of the rich at a much higher level, since your average person will rarely go above the expenditure for which they are compensated.

    Mind you this will only work IF
    1. there is clear public determination of what is rebated and there is no opportunity for substitution ie cheap mince for rump steak or chicken for lamb. (ie not like the sneaky CPI)

    2. You do something to capture money spent by the well off overseas since it is self defeating if it encourages the wealthy to spend in Europe not Australia.

    3. There are provisions to cater for people with special needs – be it for transport, special dietary needs or disabilities.

  45. Well, you would think that the Tiges would fire up for Tommy today, we sure as hell owe him, but I’m not holding my breath

  46. [ Boerwar

    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    A. Who was mostly to blame for english?
    B. The english.

    ————————————————–

    Q: What is Grammar?
    A: The difference between knowing your shit, and knowing you’re shit.

  48. Dio

    Thanks. Just found some footage. Some did boo but most did not. You often get silly minorities. And, yes, some at Essendon have still to come to anything remotely like a sensible view of what happened at their club.

    A Bludger posted that Victorian OH&S officials have started an investigation into Essendon. Better late than never. In my view the clearest and most obvious failure at Essendon was one related to Duty of Care in the Workplace.

    As a side matter, Malceski had only ever been reported once in his career before this – for making negligent contact with an umpire.

  49. Boerwar

    A RC would just determine what we all know.

    We sacrifice our people and our money for the security of alliance.

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