Seats of the week: Fadden and Moncrieff

This week’s Seat of the Week double-up accounts for the northern two-third of the Gold Coast, served by Liberal National Party members Stuart Robert and Steven Ciobo.

Fadden

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Fadden covers the northern part of the Gold Coast municipality, from Gaven and Labrador in the south through Coomera, Pimpama and Ormeau to Logan River in the north, with the Pacific Motorway forming most of its western boundary. This area’s intensive population growth has caused the electorate to be progressively drawn into the Gold Coast since its creation in 1977, at which time it contained none of its present territory, instead covering outer southern Brisbane and the Gold Coast’s rural hinterland. The redistribution caused by the expansion of parliament in 1984 drew it into Brisbane, extending as far northwards as Salisbury and Rochedale, with the Logan River as its southern boundary. It first infringed upon the Gold Coast when it acquired Coomera at the 1996 election, the migration being completed with the exchange of Redland Bay in the north for Southport in the south at the 2004 election. The ongoing population explosion caused it to shed nearly 14,000 voters inland of its current boundary at the most recent Queensland redistribution before the 2010 election.

With the exception of 1983, Fadden in its various guises has been won at every election by the conservatives, meaning the the Liberal Party prior to the 2010 merger and the Liberal National Party thereafter. The inaugural member was Don Cameron, who had held Griffith for the Liberals since 1966. The 1975-engorged margin was whittled away at the 1977 and 1980 elections, then overturned with David Beddall’s victory for Labor with the election of the Hawke government. Cameron returned to parliament a year later at a by-election caused by Jim Killen’s retirement in Moreton, which became the third seat he represented. The 1984 redistribution made Fadden notionally Liberal, causing David Beddall to jump ship for Rankin. The seat was then won for the Liberals by David Jull, who had held the seat of Bowman from 1975 until his defeat in 1983. Jull’s margins were less than 5% until 1996, but generally well into double digits thereafter.

Jull was succeeded on his retirement at the 2007 election by Stuart Robert, a former army intelligence officer. Robert was said to have played a role in “rounding up support” for Tony Abbott ahead of his challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership in December 2009, and was elevated afterwards to shadow parliamentary secretary in the defence portfolio. He was further promoted after the 2010 election to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of defence science, technology and personnel, which was rebadged as Assistant Defence Minister following the 2013 election victory.

Moncrieff

Teal numbers indicate two-party majority for the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Moncrieff covers the central Gold Coast from Miami north through Surfers Paradise to Nerang Head, and inland to Nerang and Highland Park. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, previous to which the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson since 1949, and by Moreton beforehand. Moncrieff originally extended deep into rural territory at Beaudesert, before assuming its current coastal orientation with Beaudesert’s transfer to Forde in 1996. Prior to Moncrieff’s creation the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson, which had itself been created with the previous expansion of parliament in 1949. The Gold Coast had originally been contained within the electorate of Moreton, which has since migrated into Brisbane’s southern suburbs. The area has had conservative representation without interruption since 1906, with McPherson passing from Country Party to Liberal Party control in 1972, and Moncrieff being in Liberal and more recently Liberal National Party hands since its creation.

Steven Ciobo assumed the seat at the 2001 election after the retirement of its inaugural member, Kathy Sullivan, who had previously been a Senator since 1974, establishing what remains a record as the longest serving female member of federal parliament. Ciobo emerged through Liberal ranks as a member of the Right faction, associated with former ministers Santo Santoro and Warwick Parer and state party powerbroker Michael Caltabiano. He rose to the shadow ministry in the small business portfolio after the defeat of the Howard government, which was elevated to a shadow cabinet position when Malcolm Turnbull ascended to the leadership in September 2008. However, he was demoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolios of tourism, arts, youth and sport when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009 and relegated to the back bench after the August 2010 election, which was generally reckoned to be a consequence of his support for Turnbull. Following the 2013 election victory he won promotion to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

621 comments on “Seats of the week: Fadden and Moncrieff”

Comments Page 12 of 13
1 11 12 13
  1. [J341983
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 8:47 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh God I want Galaxy…
    ]

    Is there definitely a Galaxy coming?

  2. p

    Yeah. I had picked up on the choir name and the jersey design stuff.

    It is definitely one choir with which you would not want to get into biffo.

  3. Boerwar@550

    dave
    Interesting stuff, but do you credit the commentary?

    The extent of the truth in this article – who knows?

    I take a far bit of Zerohedge stuff with a lump of salt – they really overdue doom and gloom.

    But there can be some good articles as well.

    The pics in this instance got me in – seem huge numbers.

    There is a fair bit ‘on the record’ of car dealers “channel stuffing” to dodgy up the number of actual car sales – particularly in the US.

    I’d watch in a few days and see if its picked up in broader media – often the case.

  4. I have to admit that I’ve not followed anything even remotely Hadley for the past few weeks. But that said, WTF with that DT front page story when this week we saw a federal budget handed down?

    Are they trying to bury the shit Abbott budget or something?

  5. Maybe there is a Galaxy Poll coming, but there was one a couple of weeks ago, and they’re not that frequent. Feels like people have talked up the idea one is due without any evidence, to the level where if one isn’t produced they will feel robbed.

  6. Fess

    It’s a Sydney thing. Hadley is the biggest radio name in town and rugby league is the biggest game in town.

    I guess you gotta be there to understand.

  7. 525…Re Pensioners and the Libs troubles
    _________________________________
    Actually a major pensioners rally is planned for Wednesday 11.00 in front of Melb Public Library…at the top of Swanston St..then a march to Fed Square

    The Rally is being organised by a coalition of pensioner groups and unions and I think it will draw a great crowd and will close down the central city as they march to Fed Square

  8. Had a chat with a guy I know who was a cambodian refugee. Came to Australia 30 years ago. Now works as a tradie. Nice guy, but listens to Alan Jones. Was worried Australia had a debt problem. I reassured him it didn’t (successfully, I think). But what really worried him was any threat to medicare. That really terrified him, partly because of his background, I assumed. He knew that the $7 co-payment would be just the start.
    That made me ponder that medicare is probably the thing that, more than anything, binds this country together because it reinforces the notion that we help each other in need.
    Once medicare is gone, what’s left? Bugger-all, as far as I can see.
    Anyway, how dopey is Abbott, introducing the co-payment in the budget when he should have known Labor/Greens would have to oppose and Clive had already oppose the idea (if I recall). Just caused himself a world of pain for no result.

  9. rossmcg:

    The Sydney obsession with obnoxious radio shockjocks is almost unparalleled. I can totally see Hadley’s latest escapades bumping the budget off teh front page, even though I don’t agree with it.

  10. The oy in Hadley’s pain continues…

    [Ray Hadley bites back on air over media’s ‘meddling’ in split
    On his 2GB morning show on Friday, Ray Hadley told listeners he was struggling with having his private life played out in public. But, on Saturday, he appeared intent on prolonging that pain.

    The broadcaster spent large chunks of his show publicly crucifying journalists who had covered the breakdown of his marriage.

    The Hadley-generated follow-up to Friday’s media storm also featured a bizarre, on-air telephone exchange with his boss and the station’s owner, John Singleton.

    ”Hey girls, bloke available, how good’s that?” said Singleton, in describing the media coverage.
    And on life’s setbacks, Singo had the following tongue-in-cheek advice for Hadley: ”They always say glass half full, glass half empty … call me old-fashioned, but I’d rather see a glass thrown at some bastard’s face.”
    He later added, ”Remember Ray, mate, you got a long way to go … you got three [marriages] to go to get me … so get used to it buddy”. He then remarked that Hadley had ”got out of it scot-free the way I read it”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ray-hadley-bites-back-on-air-over-medias-meddling-in-split-20140517-38goh.html#ixzz31yR6Ef9K ]

    Cringeworthy, but worth still the same.

  11. So many typos originally, I’ll re-post.

    —————-

    The joy in Hadley’s pain continues…

    [Ray Hadley bites back on air over media’s ‘meddling’ in split
    On his 2GB morning show on Friday, Ray Hadley told listeners he was struggling with having his private life played out in public. But, on Saturday, he appeared intent on prolonging that pain.

    The broadcaster spent large chunks of his show publicly crucifying journalists who had covered the breakdown of his marriage.

    The Hadley-generated follow-up to Friday’s media storm also featured a bizarre, on-air telephone exchange with his boss and the station’s owner, John Singleton.

    ”Hey girls, bloke available, how good’s that?” said Singleton, in describing the media coverage.
    And on life’s setbacks, Singo had the following tongue-in-cheek advice for Hadley: ”They always say glass half full, glass half empty … call me old-fashioned, but I’d rather see a glass thrown at some bastard’s face.”

    He later added, ”Remember Ray, mate, you got a long way to go … you got three [marriages] to go to get me … so get used to it buddy”. He then remarked that Hadley had ”got out of it scot-free the way I read it”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ray-hadley-bites-back-on-air-over-medias-meddling-in-split-20140517-38goh.html#ixzz31yR6Ef9K ]

    Cringeworthy, but worth it still the same.

    ———

    Blame the cheap red (hint: not Grange)

  12. just looking through the Daily ToiletPaper stories. Budget? What Budget.

    We have

    – Hadley’s wife
    – Hadley making up with Laurie Daley
    – cyclists clowning on the roads
    – Sam Maiden’s EXCLUSIVE of a Federal MP who likes to know who’s gay
    – 5SOS
    – ASADA being challenged by NRL players
    – security guards watching NRL State of Origin training camp
    – groping in Sydney nightclubs
    – not sure about this

    [Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 27m
    Power wedding: @JuliaGillard congratulated howes for an “eclectic” guest list – Lib Michael Kroger and Labor factional opponents #auspol

    Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 30m
    Power wedding: @JuliaGillard speaks at Paul Howes wedding. “His main attribute was loyalty” She was sitting next to @billshortenmp #auspol]

    Looks like the fix is in……….

  13. There is more to the Hadley story that makes it great soap opera and just the thing for DT front page.

    Hadley has been spending an enormous amount of energy attacking Matt Parish the deputy coach of the Blues and calling for his sacking: so much so that Laurie Daley accused him of treachery and trying to destabilise the team in the lead up to Origin One. Remember that as well as being a rabid shock jock Hadley is also the most prominent NRL. Commentator.
    No one was quite sure why as Parrish is a fairly innocuous guy until rumours spread during the week that Mrs Hadley was having an affair with him.
    Today’s DT confirms this and both Parrish and Mrs Hadley are obviously either very brave or mad.
    So it is indeed a story of the same rank as when the Victorian fumble ball captain screwed the vice captain’s wife. Much bigger than any politics.

  14. Good o.

    The EXCLUSIVE Sam maiden is a smear of new libertarian Senator David Leijdonholm. Maybe Murdoch organs are going to go the squirrel on him?

    :large

  15. A Galaxy poll was done:

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/its-true-we-hate-the-budget-and-paying-for-hockeys-50000-lunch/story-fni0cx4q-1226921367229

    [The Federal Government’s tough fiscal medicine has prompted a ­majority of Australians — 75 per cent — to declare they are worse off after the budget and boosted support for billionaire MP Clive Palmer.

    An exclusive Galaxy poll commissioned by The Sunday Telegraph suggests the Abbott Government needs to improve the sales pitch surrounding the budget that hits families, pensioners, high-income earners and single parents.]

    So, Palmer up, every other party…?

  16. Oops. further down:

    [While support for the major parties is largely unchanged with two party preferred vote of 53:47 in favour of the Labor Party, Mr Palmer’s ­United Australia Party has improved. Primary vote support for the major parties is unchanged at 38 per cent for both Labor and the Coalition.]

    53:47 to ALP on TPP.

  17. [An exclusive Galaxy poll commissioned by The Sunday Telegraph suggests the Abbott Government needs to improve the sales pitch surrounding the budget that hits families, pensioners, high-income earners and single parents.]

    Good ferreting there Dan, I reckon a small box on p37 in the dead tree version.

    Need to improve the sales pitch, eh?

  18. poroti
    thanks my name is taken from a very funny family type movie with Kurt Russel as a super hero. The movie is “Sky High”.
    Warren Peace is the son of a super hero and a super villian.
    this allows my to play good, cop bad cop if I want to.

  19. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s threats to call an early election are ­believed to be “serious”, according to senior government sources, if Mr Palmer turns the Senate into a circus.

    After falling asleep in parliament last week, Mr Palmer said the results proved he was the sleeping giant of Australian politics. “Joe Hockey telling everyone we’ve got a debt crisis put me to sleep. They do seem to be a ­kamikaze government,” he said.]

    Bring it on……..

  20. Blimey, there was one. Not a big drop, which suggests either people already factored in the worst with all the Commission of Audit talk, or it will take a couple of weeks to sink in.

    Interesting that the Primary vote for the ALP is higher than the that of the Newspoll. Pretty sure that’s the case with most other recent polls too.

  21. The extraordinary cost of the April G20 dinner has been revealed just days after Mr Hockey handed down a brutal Budget that could cost some families up to $5000 a year as a result of cuts to family payments and increased medical costs.

    On the menu at Mr Hockey’s dinner was barramundi, Victorian wagyu beef, WA truffles and a “eucalyptus ice” dressed up with Tasmanian leatherwood honey. Despite declaring “the age of entitlement is over’’ in the Budget, Mr Hockey’s own Treasury department paid the TV chef to fly business class and airlift truffles from Australia to Washington DC last month.

Comments Page 12 of 13
1 11 12 13

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *