Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research result finds little change on voting behaviour, while the monthly leadership ratings are the first from any pollster to show Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

The latest weekly result from Essential Research, a rolling average of polling conducted over the past fortnight, shows little change on last week with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39% and the Greens down one to 9%, while the Coalition and Palmer United are steady on 40% and 5% and Labor’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll also includes the monthly personal ratings, which are the first such results from any pollster showing Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, the latter’s lead of 42-32 last month crashing to a deficit of 37-36. This is down to a slump in Abbott’s ratings, his approval down six to 35% and disapproval up eight to 55%, with Shorten’s ratings little changed at 35% approval (up one) and 37% disapproval (down one).

In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25. The least popular measures were raising the retirement age and increasing interest rates on HELP debts. Respondents thought the Coalition heavily favoured the rich (54%) over the poor (5%) and the average Australian (22%), while tending to place Labor in the middle, with 34% for the average Australian, 16% for the rich and 22% for the poor. The poll found broad awareness that Australia’s national debt was lower than other developed countries (45% believing it lower, 22% higher), and a belief that large companies and high-income earners paid too little tax and small businesses and low-income earners too much.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,295 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Heydon wondering why Blewitt signed a document that demonstrates that Blewitt was prepared to lie to police about not having committed an offense is irrelevant…

  5. [Yes, he will probably will across the whole hearing. Focussing on admission of evidence points is normally unproductive in assessing the fairness of anything.
    ]

    We may see and admission of evidence points are fair game – obviously you can’t make a finding on evidence you have excluded so it is potentially quite important.

  7. So Blewitt signed a document to police that he knew was false, concerning what he has admitted were criminal acts, and the Commission doesn’t allow it to be tendered as evidence?

  12. Shorten has ommitted the negative $68 billion that the Government has add to the budget bottom line.

    He should be hammering the fact that they have spent around $8billion a month EXTRA since they have become the Government.

  13. Heydon has a time problem.

    Plus he has no hearing room of his own for the RC, he is borrowing the child abuse setup.

    Blewitt will never return to Australia after he is no longer sworn, and probably never after Friday if he is.

    He should apply for extra time now, as he has no chance of producing a report by Dec. this year.

  14. [So Blewitt signed a document to police that he knew was false, concerning what he has admitted were criminal acts, and the Commission doesn’t allow it to be tendered as evidence?
    ]

    But it will be evened up evidence Gillard is completely innocent will be excluded too! Just so both sides have evidence excluded.

  15. Maybe you should just find the office newbie and hand them the work!

    Tell them it is for the good of the nation opps I mean good for the business

  19. “@nickharmsen: State Libs say SA has been dudded in budget road funding. Wonder if their federal colleagues agree? #saparli”

  21. @PeterFosterALP: Arrogance of the Coalition Government – Budgeting for repeal of carbon tax and mining tax when hasn’t even passed Senate. #qt #auspol

  23. [69
    guytaur

    “@nickharmsen: State Libs say SA has been dudded in budget road funding. Wonder if their federal colleagues agree? #saparli”]

    The whole budget is an exercise in dudding. The LNP are doing what they know best….cheating.

  25. 18

    More expensive fuel does cut its use and thus increase the use of PT, walking and cycling instead of driving. Fuel burning does pollute and this causes lots of health problems, internal combustion engine vehicles makes lots of noise and this degrades the urban environment and using cars instead of a more active form of transport (this includes PT because to get to it (without a car, like the vast majority of PT users) you have to walk or cycle) decreases activity levels.

    Fuel excise is good.

  27. fascinating. like watching that old footage of the herd of wildebeest or antelope crossing the river footage, and you know the crocodile is going to get one.

  30. “@Kate_McClymont: Watson has just raised “The great flood of 2011” – a reference to Koelma losing all his vital documents in a flood in his garage #ICAC”

    “@ShoebridgeMLC: @MWhitbourn The great 2011 flood was a terrible time when the Coalition members of the NSW Parliament started walking out two by two.”

  32. “Only about one-fifth of voters believe Australia’s national debt is high compared with other developed countries”

    In other news, one-fifth of voters believe in a geocentric model of the solar system.

  34. A bit tedious, but they’re going through the cheques one-by-one. No mistakes by Wilson’s people so far… wait a minute… hesitating… yep, it’s a stamp.

  36. [ Seems that Blewitt used Wilson signature stamp to write himself cash cheques. ]

    Sooooo….this Blewitt guy. On the evidence seen and heard so far he is as bent as dogs hind leg. So unless he has good supporting and documentary evidence for his various accusations there is no way a reasonable person will take him at his word.

    This part of the RC seems to be shaping up as a complete waste of time.

  37. I have received a reply from Jamie Briggs MP regarding my question on lousy broadband capacity. Her it is – as expected a tirade against Labor.
    ___________________________________________________________

    Dear Ken,

    Thanks for your enquiry regarding the progress of the National Broadband Network in your local area of Mount Torrens.

    I understand that fast internet services are important, not just because we all want world class internet but because some of us can’t get internet all.

    Recently, I met with a representative of the NBN Co to obtain an update on the rollout. I took the opportunity to highlight the difficulties that Mayo constituents experience with internet connection due to geographical and logistical factors and why a speedy rollout is of paramount importance here.

    Unfortunately Labor significantly underestimated the cost and complexity of the NBN project and, as a result, released rollout schedules that were unrealistic and inaccurate, leaving communities justifiably disappointed and confused.

    The aim now is to provide Australians with a rollout schedule that is accurate, achievable and as expedient as possible

    Accordingly, the Government recently asked NBN Co to conduct a Strategic Review to find out the cost and time needed to finish the project.

    This review has revealed Labor’s mismanagement of the NBN has led to the single largest waste of taxpayers’ money in the nation’s history.

    Several key findings include: the cost of completing the NBN under Labor’s plan has blown out to $73 billion – $29 billion more than we’ve been told; only two in ten Australians would receive the NBN by 2016 and the project won’t be completed until 2024. Consequently, residents of Mayo (and many other areas) faced lengthy delays.

    In addition the Government recently undertook a Broadband Availability and Quality report which found that there are more than 1.6million premises across Australia with very poor or no fixed broadband access at all. However Labor made no effort to prioritise these areas in their rollout.

    That is why the Coalition Government has instructed the NBN Co to revise its current rollout schedule to meet three key objectives

    1. To ensure that the worst served areas in Australia are prioritised in the NBN Co rollout. On average, area with very poor broadband will receive upgrades two years sooner.
    2. To ensure that the NBN is delivered sooner and more affordably, by using a mix of technologies. This will match the right technology to the right location and make use of existing networks where possible to deliver very fast broadband.
    3. To ensure that information provided in the public domain is accurate and can be relied upon by businesses and households waiting for broadband upgrades.

    Under the Government’s plan, taxpayers will save $32 billion, the rollout will be completed four years earlier, and nine out of ten Australians will receive download speeds of 50 megabits per second or more by 2019.

    A multi-technology mix NBN will provide broadband with downloads of 25 megabits per second via satellite and fixed wireless technology in regional and remote areas of Australia.

    Fibre will still be run all the way into households and businesses where this makes sound commercial sense – for instance, where there is high business or consumer demand for very fast broadband, or existing infrastructure needs to be replaced.

    Australians will also pay lower monthly Internet bills. An average broadband plan will cost $72 per month, compared to $139 under Labor.

    This approach to the NBN brings Australia into line with the broadband upgrades being rolled out around the world.

    A new NBN rollout schedule will be released in 2014 along with a revised NBN Co Corporate Plan.

    In the meantime, the NBN Co website will be updated regularly to show where construction has started. You can track the project online at: http://www.nbnco.com.au/when-do-i-get-it/rollout-map.

    This Government is absolutely committed to making sure Australians are told the facts about the NBN – no more spin. We will complete the NBN sooner, at less cost to taxpayers, more affordably for consumers and with complete transparency.

    Regards,

    Jamie

  39. I agree with the GPs on this one.

    [Specialist doctors could be raking in millions of dollars from Medicare by forcing chronically ill patients back to their GP for a fresh referral each year so they can then charge twice the fee.

    An ABC investigation has found evidence of widespread concern in the health industry about the billing practices of some specialists, particularly dermatologists, ophthalmologists and cardiologists.]

  40. [This part of the RC seems to be shaping up as a complete waste of time.]

    Yey despite his likely fraudulent behaviour he has been ranted immunity.

  41. rua,
    I think he agreed under oath that that is what he did; in fact that is what he is doing for each cheque listed in the folder of copies of the cheques. If that make sense.

  43. Blewitt uses the “It’s-over-20-years-ago” line again and again.

    He seems to have a very selective memory. Like a Swiss cheese, actually.

  44. Tom yes except most of Australia has crap PT.

    You don’t need to travel far from inner Melbourne to see just how useless the system is and how underdeveloped it has become.

    Cars will remain Melbourne and Australia’s number 1 form of transport.

  45. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 4m

    Capacity must be amazing. RT @TimWattsMP: Steve Ciobo just told the House that you could get 100 Gbps download speed on Telstra 4G mobile

    ROFL..

  46. [This part of the RC seems to be shaping up as a complete waste of time.]

    Sure is. Thanks Hedley Thomas another waste of public money.

  50. [An average broadband plan will cost $72 per month, compared to $139 under Labor.]

    Mine is $40. And that’s with the maximum download capability I could find. (Satellite).

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