ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The second big-sample ReachTEL automated phone poll in consecutive weeks confirms last week’s result on voting intention, but also finds majority support for the deficit tax.

The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. esj –

    [ the lions of pollbludger gather up the courage to attack when I am not around. ]

    You did lie your little cotton socks off and run away from every argument you tried to make.

    But you do that all the time.

    Just like the tory that you are.

  2. If I was out for the night with a “wonderful fiance” I’d be giving two shits about what was happening here, much less even bothering to comment.

    You wanna keep your woman, ESJ, you best keep you eye on the game. Hint: the game is wherever she’s at, not here.

  3. Thomas. Paine.@550

    I think the Australian electorate is smarter than you think.


    Well exactly and is why they hated Gillard for so long and wanted long gone….but she refused to let go.

    Yes, and Rudd did a great job, which is why he is now PM … oh, wait …

  4. [ Player One
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    I think the Australian electorate is smarter than you think.

    They got rid of the cancer that was most dangerous first.

    Now comes Abbott’s turn.]

    Pulease voters have damaged themselves and set back progress that will take many years to rectify.

    Things like the NBN, NDIS & CPRS may never be able to be fixed.

    Thats just plain D-U-M-B.

  5. [Player One
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 10:25 pm | PERMALINK
    Thomas. Paine.@550

    I think the Australian electorate is smarter than you think.

    Well exactly and is why they hated Gillard for so long and wanted long gone….but she refused to let go.

    Yes, and Rudd did a great job, which is why he is now PM … oh, wait …]

    Labor is in the process of creaming Abbott and you two are talking this rubbish?

  6. dave@555

    Player One
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    I think the Australian electorate is smarter than you think.

    They got rid of the cancer that was most dangerous first.

    Now comes Abbott’s turn.


    Pulease voters have damaged themselves and set back progress that will take many years to rectify.

    Things like the NBN, NDIS & CPRS may never be able to be fixed.

    Thats just plain D-U-M-B.

    Yup. Makes you realize just how bad the electorate thought a Rudd-led Labor government would be, doesn’t it?

  7. [ Labor is in the process of creaming Abbott and you two are talking this rubbish? ]

    Only one of us is talking rubbish.

  8. Player One @ 558

    Too true re Rudd, what a wrecker. I guess his wife’s firm is in the running to conduct independent assessments of DSP recipients

  9. [Chubb’s research, including interviews with 74 people involved with climate policy under Labor, has led him to clearly come down on the side of former prime minister Julia Gillard, treasurer Wayne Swan and their supporters who have blamed Mr Rudd for the paralysis and dysfunction in the government as he delayed a decision on whether to proceed with his emissions trading scheme. He paints a damning portrait of Mr Rudd as agitated, angry and chaotic.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/rudds-meltdowns-as-labor-walked-away-from-ets-20140509-zr7z6.html#ixzz31Jd6iNpw
    ]
    Gawd, it must have chewed at Rudd’s guts to see PMJG never fold under Abbott’s bullying, and tearing into Abbott in THAT speech. No wonder he hated her.

  10. [Player One
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Yup. Makes you realize just how bad the electorate thought a Rudd-led Labor government would be, doesn’t it? ]

    Makes you realise just how poorly they thought through the consequences of putting abbott and his mob in.

    Makes you wonder how casually they took the Labor policies most agreed with.

    Open you window wherever you are Tuesday night in Australia and you will here voters whining.

    But what people are told next week is just the start and anyone who voted for that then – its up to then to correct the situation or just wear it.

  11. [Chubb writes: “Sometimes Rudd’s behaviour in meetings was genuinely worrying. Several sources describe independently how he sometimes physically froze and was unable to continue. He took trips around the garden to help regain his composure.

    “While the prime minister was focused on hospitals, he knew he could not just give up on climate policy. But what was to be done? The senior figures in the government, it seemed, were talking about it non-stop. But they could not get through to Rudd, and his paralysis seemed to be worsening.”

    One Abbott press conference caused a “meltdown”, as an observer described it, when the opposition leader promised to fix the hospital system if elected at the 2010 poll. Ministers and senior staff gathered at the Lodge watched as “Rudd hyperventilated and froze so seriously that his chief of staff, Alister Jordan, helped him to his feet and took him for a walk. It seemed he had suffered a debilitating panic attack.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/rudds-meltdowns-as-labor-walked-away-from-ets-20140509-zr7z6.html#ixzz31JdsZnp6
    ]
    And we were supposed to go to an election with this man as leader?

  12. Rudd should have taken sick leave. Or got professional help. But maybe what he really needed was some character, or a spine.

  13. I must admit I am a terrible host. I had a group of people here to-night and had to keep coming over to check the posts on Poll Bludger, when I explained why they all understood , my brother in law who owns a couple of small bushinesses but is fairly centre is disgusted with what Abbott is doing. One of my sisters A true blue Liberal is very upset with Abbott, I have eight Brothers and sisters and she is the only one that voted for the Rissole Abbott

  14. Puffy

    [And we were supposed to go to an election with this man as leader?]

    Yes. Who else was more deserving of the ignominy of the election defeat

  15. Warren 🙂

    One tries to maintain standards though.

    So – whats the consensus with your group tonight about budget 2014 ?

    Or even election 2016?

  16. Boerwar 215

    So you agree that you disagree? Interesting. If so You are also disagreeing with the Washington institutions that set up the Consensus who all changed their methods due to the devastation they realised they were causing.

  17. 545

    In a democracy, the majority get a government the majority deserve. I did not vote for this Government.

  18. OMG indeed. Alan Jones pays out on the Liberals

    Tweet This Article
    Facebook
    Alan Jones – Heather Brown | 2GB
    2gb.com
    @SUBDO2 SAYS:
    CartwheelPrint: OMG sit down & listen to Alan Jones praise Gillard, seemingly dump Abbott in it & go to town on Newman #auspol http://t.co/zaOlCNOIKJ

  19. billie 560

    Player One @ 558

    ‘Too true re Rudd, what a wrecker. I guess his wife’s firm is in the running to conduct independent assessments of DSP recipients’.

    Yes, Billie and Player One.

    But.

    I have a great deal of respect for Therese Rein.

    She gave up mightily on the ascension of Kevin.

    Sacrificed a zillion. Whatever one may think. What I think is that the then government made it possible to reap huge dollars in the field she was in. Or entered,for all I know.

    Which was privatasion writ huge. (Cannot find the P spelling)

    Sure, she made a LOT of Moooolah.

    A kind of interesting change.

    A smart intelligent person taking advantage of the Howard dictates.

    Not that I agree with the concept in the first instance.

  20. victoria@576

    OMG indeed. Alan Jones pays out on the Liberals

    listen to Alan Jones praise Gillard, seemingly dump Abbott in it & go to town on Newman #auspol http://t.co/zaOlCNOIKJ

    What a giraffe – Jones has sucked up to many vested interests and for profit for years and now he finally is starting to face what a bunch of mongrels his tory mates are.

    Too little – too late – the parrot played a huge role of putting abbott into power and allowing this all to happen.

    What goes around comes around.

    The next day the parrot would have been rubbing abbott’s or hockey’s belly – as he will next week after the budget comes out.

  21. I never thought i would say this, but that Alan Jones segment and interview with Heather Brown is compulsory listening.

  22. dave

    I totally concur, but it appears this Heather Brown is not going to be silenced. Whatever this explosive stuff she knows, the parrot is going to support her

  23. 579

    My point is that the voting public is not a whole in who their voted for. Abbott was not elected unanimously.

  24. victoria@581

    I never thought i would say this, but that Alan Jones segment and interview with Heather Brown is compulsory listening.

    Vic – sorry but he is still what he is – a serpent and should be treated as such.

    He was a cheer boy for so much crap – now he is crying crocodile tears.

    Trust him as far as you can throw him.

    After all “Pick and Stick” – he has long ago ‘picked’.

    What he has done in the past speak deafeningly of his true position on all of this.

  25. [ victoria
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    dave

    And what surprises me is that he insinuates that when Abbott was elected, the airport suddenly got the go ahead ]

    Well he says Steven Smith said no way – yet if Smith had ever gone on his show Jones would have ridiculed Labor and licked abbott’s boots.

    He can’t have it both ways.

    Abbott is his pal and his problem – unless he comes out publicly and tells people to dump abbott.

    Oh – What a fine way the Queenslanders have, yet again found to screw themselves – its spelt N.E.W.M.A.N – let them wear it too.

  26. dave

    The conservatives imcluding Jones are getting very restless with Abbott. We shall have to wait and see i guess.

    Anyhoo night all

  27. Player One@559

    Labor is in the process of creaming Abbott and you two are talking this rubbish?


    Only one of us is talking rubbish.

    That is an uncharacteristically generous admission on your part.

  28. Everyone. Don’t think for one moment that the Parrot has suddenly seen the light. The issue on that audio is about gas companies being given carte blanche to “frack” farm lands.

    He has long been a vocal opponent of this, even to the point of standing on the same stage as Green Party members (:eek:) at anti-fracking rallies.

    The principle reason for his stand on this issue is he owns land in an area that is being taken over by CSG drillers.

    Although it’s a noble cause and I applaud the stand he is taking, he’s taking it primarily through that much loved Tory principle of self interest.

  29. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@564

    Rudd should have taken sick leave. Or got professional help. But maybe what he really needed was some character, or a spine.

    Well your first sentence was right.

    He had serious surgery twice within a relatively short time of the assassination.

    His performance may well have been impaired by health problems around that time.

  30. [FFS, Rudd / Gillard wars again??]

    The hurt ones cannot resist slagging Rudd and using him as their excuse for all things….and so long as they propagate dishonesty and their bile on Rudd so too will others set the matters straight.

    Now if they could take their meds, or get over that Gillard had to be replaced by Rudd to save the party from oblivion and stopped slagging him….well their would be no back and forth and other issues would be discussed.

  31. [Rudd should have taken sick leave. Or got professional help. But maybe what he really needed was some character, or a spine.]

    And maybe Gillard found a moral compass, sense of loyalty, learned to put her hunger for the top job in proper perspective, learned how to be a national leader.

    Yeh..Labor go to an election in the person of Gillard whom the public had worked out and decided they didn’t like her one bit and willing to punish Labor back to the stone age just to get rid of her. You cannot have a PM and go to an election with a person who is nowhere near being a national leader…it was imperative that the kindergarten factional game finish and a real leader put back in the job, Rudd….and only just in time.

  32. Christ? Seriously?

    … the fact that Rudd was incapable of Governing played no role. I was in the APS at the time and everyone knew how dysfunctional the leadership was.

    Gillard had many faults, but to forgive Rudd his … frankly is foolish.

  33. Thomas. Paine. 596

    It warms the cockles of my heart to see you make a fool of yourself yet again – still.

    How do you manage to tie your shoe laces or cross the road?

    TP – The mad ‘uncle’ of Pollbludger.

  34. Life, I wonder
    Will it take me under?
    I don’t know

    Imagine smoking weed in the streets without cops harassin’
    Imagine going to court with no trial
    Lifestyle cruising blue Bahama waters
    No welfare supporters more conscious of the way we raise our daughters
    Days are shorter, nights are colder
    Feeling like life is over, these snakes strike like a cobra
    The world’s hot my son got knocked, evidently
    It’s elementary, they want us all gone eventually
    Trooping out of state for a plate of knowledge
    If coke was cooked without the garbage we’d all have the top dollars
    Imagine everybody flashing, fashion
    Designer clothes, lacing your clique up with diamond Roles
    Your people holding dough, no parole
    No rubbers, go in raw imagine law with no undercovers
    Just some thoughts for the mind
    I take a glimpse into time
    Watch the blimp read “The World Is Mine”

    If I ruled the world (Imagine that)
    I’d free all my sons, I love em love em baby
    Black diamonds and pearls (Could it be, if you could
    Be mine, we’d both shine)
    If I ruled the world (Still living for today, in
    These last days and times)

    The way to be, paradise like relaxing black, Latino and Anglo-Saxon
    Armani Exchange deranged
    Cash, Lost Tribe of Shabazz, free at last
    Brand new whips to crash then we laugh in the iller path
    The Villa house is for the crew, how we do
    Trees for breakfast, dime sexes and Benz stretches
    So many years of depression make me vision
    The better living, type of place to raise kids in
    Open they eyes to the lies history’s told foul
    But I’m as wise as the old owl, plus the Gold Child
    Seeing things like I was controlling, click rollin
    Tricking 6 digits on kicks and still holdin
    Trips to Paris, I civilized every savage
    Gimme one shot I turn trife life to lavish
    Political prisoner set free, stress free
    No work release purple M3’s and jet skis
    Feel the wind breeze in West Indies
    I make Coretta Scott-King mayor the cities and reverse fiends to Willies
    It sounds foul but every girl I meet’d go downtown
    I’d open every cell in Attica send em to Africa

    And then we’ll walk right up to the sun
    Hand in hand
    We’ll walk right up to the sun
    We won’t land

    You’d love to hear the story how the thugs live in worry
    Duck down in car seats, heat’s mandatory
    Running from Jake, getting chased, hunger for papes
    These are the breaks many mistakes go down out of state
    Wait, I had to let it marinate we carry weight
    Trying to get laced, flip the ace stack the safe
    Millionaire plan to keep the gat with the cocked hammer
    Making moves in Atlanta, back-and-forth scrambler
    Cause you could have all the chips, be poor or rich
    Still nobody want a nigga having shit
    If I ruled the world and everything in it, sky’s the limit
    I push a Q-45 Infinit(i)
    It wouldn’t be no such thing as jealousies or B Felonies
    Strictly living longevity to the destiny
    I thought I’d never see but reality struck
    Better find out before your time’s out, what the fuck?

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