ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The second big-sample ReachTEL automated phone poll in consecutive weeks confirms last week’s result on voting intention, but also finds majority support for the deficit tax.

The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. When the Labor Party Wins the next election easily, it should hold royal commissions into Liberal Party slush funds sate and federal but especially being able to buy the ear of the treasurer of the Australian Government in secret is corrupt it should be a gaol-able offence. ESJ Seems to always need it’s medication or even heavy sedation

  2. The Official Vietnam War History statistics:

    804,000 potential conscripts.

    12,000 did not register.

    70% were balloted out.

    237,000 were balloted in.

    Of whom:

    63,740 were called up.

    50,000 people from all three services saw active service, of whom the large majority were Army.

    Of the 42,000 Army personnel who saw active service, 478 were killed, and over 3,000 were wounded.

    In 2009, 32,000 Vietnam War Veterans were on disability pensions.

    Of whom one in three was a conscript.

    Of the 32,000, 19,000 were classified as TPI (Totally and Permanently Incapacitated),

    Of whom 14,000 were PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder).

    Figures for vets who had already died by 2009, and the causes of death, were not provided.

  3. Jack’s death was a moment of deep emotional truth for Kipling – he finally got an insight into what lies at the end of the Jingo Road.

    It devastated him.

  4. Edwina,

    [We do actually need to encourage people to move North in this country. There is more work to be had north of the Brisbane Line.]

    I hear there is a vacancy for a maintenance position at the North Pole.

    I reckon you would be the ideal candidate.

    Since you have lots of experience as a pole-polisher.

  5. Boerwar@504

    Jack’s death was a moment of deep emotional truth for Kipling – he finally got an insight into what lies at the end of the Jingo Road.

    It devastated him.

    The movie showed Kipling very much into Jingoism.

    It devastated a couple of generations as well of course.

    So much written on why and how WW1 could have been/ should have been avoided and how at many many turns the move to war just went on and on.

    That Putin bloody worries me as well.

  6. Boer war re Washington consensus.

    I knew it was silly quoting Chomsky! I am no fan, the quote merely resonated.

    We r talking 2 different things. Not the PIGS in recent times – I am talking subsaharan Africa, some Latin American nations and some other developing nations in the 90’s. The consensus was a rort that gave money to political crooks to open the door to multinationals to pillage unfettered.

  7. Don’t worry about the health ramifications of Hockey’s cigar smoking

    Actually do!

    That fat cat is trimming the budget of spending on disabled, old age pensioners, low income sick people.

    The sooner that old fat cat is out of the way the healthier we will be

  8. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    It dos’nt matter if you posted it before or not I’m not going to read it just like I didn’t read it on the SMH site I bet it was witten by Sheehan

  9. [Simon Katich
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    Boer war re Washington consensus.

    I knew it was silly quoting Chomsky! I am no fan, the quote merely resonated.

    We r talking 2 different things.]

    I agree.

    The Washington Consensus was not based on the principle that crooks and liars should get together to plunder the environment and the poor.

  10. Puffy:

    I don’t think the book is going to tell us anything we don’t already know. The former member for Griffith was no leader. That may have been news 4 years ago, but it sure ain’t news now.

  11. billie:

    I’m betting Team Abbott was having major meltdowns yesterday as the Treasurer and Finance Minister were seen happily chugging away on cigars as news of a tough budget for families was circulating.

    Stupid.

  12. Looks like tomorrow’s Murdoch tabloids are going with the leak of pay freezes for politicians and public servants, or ‘fat cats’ as the bogan envy would have it.

    I suppose this is to show that ‘we are all in it’ as taxes go up and services go down, whilst Joe NAND the Belgian puff away

  13. victoria:

    That’s what hit me the moment I saw the photo. It screamed blokesville in a way that I haven’t seen a government possibly ever except in Yes Minister.

    No, can’t imagine Swan/Wong doing that. Not at all.

  14. Looks like tomorrow’s Murdoch tabloids are going with the leak of pay freezes for politicians and public servants, or ‘fat cats’ as the bogan envy would have it.

    I suppose this is to show that ‘we are all in it’ as taxes go up and services go down

    And as a political tactic it would work if the government had been able to control their pre-budget messaging better.

    As it is I think cynicism has set in and stunting like this will backfire. But I guess we’ll see.

  15. Acerbic Conehead@505

    Edwina,

    We do actually need to encourage people to move North in this country. There is more work to be had north of the Brisbane Line.


    I hear there is a vacancy for a maintenance position at the North Pole.

    I reckon you would be the ideal candidate.

    Since you have lots of experience as a pole-polisher.

    When you are dead, you don’t know that you are dead. It is difficult only for others.

    It is the same when you are stupid.

  16. [ When you are dead, you don’t know that you are dead. It is difficult only for others.

    It is the same when you are stupid. ]

    As in the movie “The Sixth Sense” …

    “I see stupid people …” ?

  17. What a disgrace by the grubby Melbourne Storm. You won’t hear them whinging after all the favours they received tonight.

    And what about that Cameron Smith being awarded a penalty for belting Ballin (who is a better hooker/player by the way)which led to a try.

    The Storm obviously want to make sure they put someone in a wheel chair next time.

    Disgraceful, the better team again failed to take the two points against the teacher’s pet favourites.

  18. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 8:46 pm | PERMALINK
    I thought I posted this already, but I can’t see it.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/rudds-meltdowns-as-labor-walked-away-from-ets-20140509-zr7z6.html

    It lays bare the utter incompetence of the man.

    If his sacking wasn’t humiliating enough, to see the level of bitterness, hatred and desperation in the years following was truly galling to witness with the attempts to win over Murdoch with treasonous leaks, the Australia network & Nthn Australia policies.

    A shameful display.

  19. Player One #533

    Ultimately, responsibility lies with us, the voters.

    We voted for the likes of Rudd and Abbott.

    It’s time for a change…

  20. There’s too little information available for voters to make properly informed choices. Not to mention that their only means of expressing any number of choices is all tied up in one vote every few years.

  21. Rex Douglas@535

    Player One #533

    We voted for the likes of Rudd and Abbott.

    Both Rudd and Abbott were a 100% certifiable maniacs. Most of us could see that, but we couldn’t get rid of them both in the same election.

    So when we had a choice of which one to get rid of first, we chose Rudd.

    Abbot is next.

  22. @ Player One 537

    If the majority of Australian voters thought both Rudd and Abbott certifiable maniacs, Clive Palmer or Adam Bandt would today be Prime Minister.

  23. DN

    [There’s too little information available for voters to make properly informed choices. Not to mention that their only means of expressing any number of choices is all tied up in one vote every few years.]

    That will do for a start.

  24. Arrnea Stormbringer@538

    @ Player One 537

    If the majority of Australian voters thought both Rudd and Abbott certifiable maniacs, Clive Palmer or Adam Bandt would today be Prime Minister.

    Not so. We didn’t want the cure to be worse than the disease.

  25. @ Player One 540

    I’m not sure how the Greens /or/ Clive Palmer could honestly be worse than the Liberal agenda.

  26. The Trolls Return, When the shit hits the fan they drag up old news. If in the Next twenty years Labor is in trouble I will bring up the Spartan Persian war

  27. [ Player One
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Both Rudd and Abbott were a 100% certifiable maniacs. Most of us could see that, but we couldn’t get rid of them both in the same election.

    So when we had a choice of which one to get rid of first, we chose Rudd.

    Abbott is next. ]

    Mmmm. Voters believed a magic pudding of more for less tax would be delivered by abbott – and they were wRONg.

    Labor had many problems but had protected most of the electorate and had many good policies which the majority agreed with.

    Most voters had serious doubts about abbott but went with him anyway – and will pay for it for years if they don’t *Chuck him out*.

    Labor is addressing its party and candidate selection issues and its leadership is settled in the minds of the vast majority.

    Voters put abbott in – its their problem until they address it.

    If they think they were hard done by under Labor – then enjoy abbott – more detail available Tuesdat night.

    After all voters got who they wanted 🙂

  28. Arrnea Stormbringer@541

    @ Player One 540

    I’m not sure how the Greens /or/ Clive Palmer could honestly be worse than the Liberal agenda.

    Fair point … and one that I would be happy to debate once the Abbott and Rudd cancers have been excised from the Australian body politic.

    And from the look of things, we won’t have long to wait!

  29. Ha – I am out for the evening with my wonderful fiancé and what do I find, the lions of pollbludger gather up the courage to attack when I am not around.

    Don’t worry I’ll be back for budget night to put some stick about!

  30. [Both Rudd and Abbott were a 100% certifiable maniacs. Most of us could see that, but we couldn’t get rid of them both in the same election.

    So when we had a choice of which one to get rid of first, we chose Rudd.

    Abbot is next.]

    The public very quickly understood the sickness of Labor and wanted to get rid of its manifestation in Gillard, and because Labor failed to listen the public from beginning to end it decided to punish Labor anyway.

    The best result prior to that would have been a Gillard loss so the following blood letting would fall back on the factional scum and Gillard called to public account for the long planned backstabbing of Rudd.

  31. [ After all voters got who they wanted ]

    I think the Australian electorate is smarter than you think.

    They got rid of the cancer that was most dangerous first.

    Now comes Abbott’s turn.

  32. [I think the Australian electorate is smarter than you think.]

    Well exactly and is why they hated Gillard for so long and wanted long gone….but she refused to let go.

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