Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.
The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.
Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.
And there is also this
Nicknamed “Doom” Sergi, his older brother is Pat Sergi, one of Mr Spagnolo’s business partners. Pat Sergi received an unfavourable mention in the Woodward royal commission on drug trafficking that suggested he was money laundering for the Griffith Mafia.
Mr Ange, who has been prosecuted for selling unclassified material, has a new business partner – a former state Liberal leader, Kerry Chikarovski, who has joined him in a business venture called Pharmaslim.
When asked on radio yesterday how he knew Mrs Chikarovski, Mr Ange replied: “I dunno – I know people. I run into people at places.”
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/league/backyard-blitz-spagnolos-crisis-talks-20090707-daki.html#ixzz2zqZGGOKa
Ctar
Not my comment. However I agree with you about the General Public. They will only become concerned if it impacts availability and prices of goods or if it becomes a shooting war.
Socrates –
The politicians take the advice of the defence/intelligence/foreign affairs public servants.
I would be very surprised if any of them are wandering too far from the PS script on China.
I, for one, would be far from willing to accept that your opinion is more valid than theirs on China.
I don’t think this is a sensible approach to take:
Of course we should avoid involvement with any conflict where possible.
However, if China begins to exhibit aggressive expansionist tendencies then there would be a problem that I doubt we could or should avoid.
Just because our economy is exposed to China is no reason to look the other way if China starts to behave badly.
There are 2 issues of concern here:
1) China has already been clearly testing the regional status quo that has existed post-cold war. China’s behaviour with regards the maritime boundaries with its neighbours in SE Asia have been quite aggressive and inflammatory.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3980437.htm
2) Looking to history to tell you what modern China will do is foolish. Modern China is without precedent in world history. The rise of China economically is astonishing, and that is a good thing, but any rapid growth story has the potential to come unstuck. The Chinese leadership has to keep growth at a breakneck speed – it’s part of the ‘compact’ they effectively have with the Chinese people. As long as the economic sun shines the Chinese people will be content, but that’s a very difficult thing to manage ‘sustainably’ without coming a cropper. If the Chinese economy wobbles or suffers a severe downturn (and of course Chinese credit levels have shot up enormously; the optimists may win out, but you’d have to be worried at the prospect of a probably more-likely-than-not credit crunch now) then the ‘compact’ is in trouble and domestic unrest becomes a serious factor. Nationalism has been on the rise, and it would be no surprise at all if the leadership turned to military fun and games to divert domestic attention in the event that things turn sour economically.
I don’t dispute at all that we should be walking a more subtle, tactful, smart line with respect of not aligning ourselves too overtly with Japan and the Abe government’s own foolishness, and I think we can and should keep a more symbolic distance from the USA’s stance on Japan/China. But at the end of the day if China acts in ways (a la Russia at the moment) where regional stability is threatened we will be forced to choose sides, and us choosing the non-China side in that event is basically inevitable and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise.
confessions
The RC that concluded in 2003 was more than a little dodgy. It served its purpose. Howard then went about establishing the ABCC a few years later. And of course, it severely eroded the power of fhe trade unions. This RC will go about attempting to finish them off. Labor sees the writing on the wall and hence the reforms being sought.
Sam Kekovic was a big and very talented VFL/AFL footballer back in the dim and distant past Fran. He played for North Melbourne from memory.
It is to his credit that he has turned his colourful persona – even in those days – into smart dollars for himself – partly self-lampoon and send up of a heap of other things which many take seriously.
Qualification: There might be two Sam Kekeovics – but I doubt it.
Michael West on the Super Heist, showing why he is Australia’s greatest journalist
http://www.smh.com.au/business/sultans-of-super-set-on-developing-your-wealth-20140425-379mr.html
Sam Kekovich played for North Melbourne and a few games at Collingwood.
He became known as a “funny man” his career helped by the ABC using him for his “rants” on various issues.
He has been used in a very interesting advertising role by the Australian lamb industry causing controversy by calling vegetarians “un-Australian” around Australia Day 2005.
If the spelling Fran has (Kekovic) is correct then it’s probably not the same person.
And for those concerned about Anzac Day moving from ceremony into commemoration into a show, some more straws in the wind.
On ABC local this morning, the RSL representative, commenting on the “40,000” (which I doubt) who turned up at Kings Park in Perth for the Dawn Ceremony, mentioned that the RSL had “set a high standard” this year and that for 2015 the “public expectations would be even higher”.
On top of this there are a number of references to people being wished a “Happy Anzac Day” – for goodness sake.
Interestingly, and with almost a throw away line, the Channel 9 voice last night on the news, said numbers at Gallipoli were “down” on the previous year and the same apparently was the case at the ceremony – correction ‘celebration’ – in France. However, the voice went on, in years to come it is expected the celebrations in V-B would become “even bigger” than those at Gallipoli.
With media talk these day just replace the words ‘Anzac Day’ with any hyped up public event and the message format is about the same.
We are, I think, seeing Anzac Day morphing into something akin to entertainment for the masses.
fran
“You know it makes sense. I’m Sam Kekovich.”
I was under the impression you came from a Aussie Rules state, Slamin Sam is like the Fly Doormat Bruce Doull from the last generation of real football players.
Direct & to the point…. non of this hands off pass the ball 20 times to go nowhere that passes for the game today
Jackol
Fine – but make sure it is YOU and YOUR kids on the front line in the hot war with Chine NOT MINE.
Australia DEPENDS on China for economic stability. Hope you are willing to contribute big time in taxes to feed the unemployed/military
Whatever the rights and wrongs of Australia’s long term interest in regard to China at present we seem to be doing ok.
The approval of the Australia Network for broadcast within China is the latest concrete proof that at present we are doing things right.
K17
Yep.
West might have gone one further and named Abbott, Hockey et al as the ones opening the gates for the spivs to pluck the woodies.
West and Kohler deserve much credit for their efforts in this area of public policy.
Another blood boiler. Just shameful and sickening.
[About 170 WA institutions have been reported to the royal commission into child sexual abuse, which has held 161 private sessions in the State and will start its first public hearing in Perth on Monday.
Harrowing details of the torture and abuse of children at four WA Christian Brothers’ homes from the 1940s to the 1960s are expected to be exposed at the Perth hearing of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, which could run for up to three weeks.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22951591/wa-litany-of-abuse-on-show/
I notice that the militarists and jingoists in Australia and Turkey have done their annual ANZAC Day tango. Are they two sides of the same coin?
Australians who are concerned about our creeping militarization, and our ever-increasing plethora of democracy thieves, should be alert that Galibalu set the platform for military devastation of democracy within Turkey for many decades.
Is Johnny Turk, represented as a the mirror of an ANZAC Digger, as a member of a warrier class, as a nation builder, really a trojan horse directed at getting the military inside the gates of our respective democracies?
If a picture paints a thousand words…
How relevant is this one. (sent to me on facebook)
Victoria 1201
What a read…. one day someone will attempt to do a ” flow chart ” showing all of these connections ( likely to be bigger than large wall map)
Also about time the ABC gave up the idea of ” balanced panels”…. with the likes of Kerry Chikarovski etal having so many connections ( no wrong doing implied… but!) how can one tell where they come from on any particular issue. Corruption has always been here just getting easier to expose
sceptic
It truly boggles the mind. There is so much more tenuous links between these people and our elected officials. I will see if i can post more stuff later
Pru Goward is NSW’s new Minister for Planning. I wondered why on earth this incompetent fool had been given this portfolio. Now I understand why she is in the job. (Ms Goward was a disaster as Minister for Family and Community Services, so bad that for months there were almost daily calls for her sacking.)
In October last year the O’Farrell goernment set up an allegedly independent panel that was supposed to protect the State’s agricultural and water resources from the potential impacts of mining and coal seam gas activities. This was the Mining and Petroleum Gateway Panel, made up of six members.Just the name ‘Gateway’ should have set off alarms.
http://www.mpgp.nsw.gov.au/
Despite the panel members being checked out by the NSW New South Wales Farmers Association and the New South Wales Minerals Council, and being approved by the Department of Planning. there were conflicts of interest that caused concern, especially after the panel approved a Bylong Valley mining application despite concerns over its impacts and despite the project not meeting the relevant criteria. Chairman Terry Short had to stand aside from the very first panel assessment because of his conflict of interest and was to stand aside from another about to begin. Remember, this panel has only six members.
Just over a week ago there was this –
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/farmers-question-new-mine-panel-chairmans-independence/story-e6frg8zx-1226884328812#
And this talks about the effects of the Bylong Coal Project – mostly severe and irreparable damage to the water supples in the area. A panel allegedly responsible for protecting the water supplies in NSW approved this.
http://www.mudgeeguardian.com.au/story/2239490/lock-the-gate-fears-mine-could-drain-bylong-valley/?cs=1485
Mr Short won’t have to stand aside now, he and fellow panel member Russell Frith resigned on Thursday.
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-25/shock-resignation-of-two-gateway-panel-members/5411054
Now for the real worry. The panel is now in disarray and two new members will have to be appointed. Who gets to appoint them? Pru Goward. Do we expect this ditz of a woman to choose wisely? Of course we don’t. It gets worse. There are calls for the panel to have greater powers, something that was never intended as it was meant to be nothing more than a ‘we care’ bit of warm, fuzzy window dresssing with no power to do anything but rubber stamp environmentally destructive projects. Will Pru give the panel greater powers to knock back inappropriate and destructive developments? Of course not. That’s not why she was given this portfolio. Barry O’Farrell was bad enough with his broken promises about protecting water, but Mike Barid will be far worse.
[ should avoid involvement with any conflict with China at all costs
Of course we should avoid involvement with any conflict where possible.
However, if China begins to exhibit aggressive expansionist tendencies then there would be a problem that I doubt we could or should avoid. ]
Both sides of US politics have made it very clear including publicly (ie Richard Armitage ) that in the event of a “hot” conflict with China, Australia would be expected to to pull its weight by being actively involved. The implication being such is the ‘price’ of the alliance.
I really doubt if either side of politics would refuse US insistence that the ADF become involved, unless it was some sort of obvious prevocation etc of the Chinese – ie not ‘by’ the Chinese.
Some months back John Kerry had words to Japan’s Abe about again visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and its more aggressive military stance against the Chinese. The implication being the US didn’t want to be dragged into a war with China on such matters.
Which makes all the more interesting Obama’s latest public support for Japan against China. Hopefully the conditions of such support were spelt out privately to Abe etc ?
Lets hope so….
I’m partly way through Robert Kaplan’s latest book “Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific”
The following review of the book sums up pretty well what I’ve read so far and sets the background should Australia find itself enmeshed in conflict with China –
[ At times, Mr. Kaplan sounds blasé about this risk—bloody battles are less likely across water than over land, he argues, and anyway, “China’s military rise is wholly legitimate.”
But there is nothing blasé about the people he interviews throughout this travelogue, which moves from map-filled conference rooms in foreign ministries to the Taiwanese military’s outpost of 200 men on the lonely Pratas Islands.
“The Chinese never give justification for their claims. They have a real Middle Kingdom mentality,” one unnamed official warns. “China denies us our right on our own continental shelf.
But we will not be treated like Tibet or Xinjiang.”
So China’s neighbors are arming themselves. “The two realities I have encountered almost everywhere in the region are shopping malls and submarines,” Mr. Kaplan writes. “Asia’s arms race may be one of the most underreported stories in the elite media in decades.”
Nervousness is more acute in some capitals (Taipei, Manila and Hanoi) than others (Kuala Lumpur), but Mr. Kaplan hears consistently that only help from Washington can prevent Chinese domination.
At the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, young officials criticize the U.S. not for the “American War” of the 1960s and ’70s but for standing by in 1995 when China displaced the Philippines from control of Mischief Reef, a dot in the southeast corner of the South China Sea.
History could now be repeating at the nearby Ayungin Shoal, where Chinese vessels this month blocked supplies to a Philippine naval crew.
Beyond examining today’s tensions, “Asia’s Cauldron” profiles modern state-builders, from Taiwan’s Chiang Kai-shek to Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamed.
Mr. Kaplan stresses that, in Asia, authoritarian politics have borne fruit. Quoting John Stuart Mill, Isaiah Berlin and other worthies, he writes that order must precede progress and defines a “good dictator” as “one who makes his own removal less fraught with risk, by preparing his people for representative government.”
Mr. Kaplan ridicules journalists and intellectuals who, preferring “moral absolutes,” argue that democracy is the only political system that can be called virtuous.
Less compelling is Mr. Kaplan’s confused argument about whether there is any moral dimension to China’s bid for dominance.
“The South China Sea shows us a 21st century world void of moral struggles,” he argues.
“It is traditional nationalism that mainly drives politics in Asia, and will continue to do so.” In contrast to World War II and the Cold War, “there is no philosophical enemy to confront.” Yet he acknowledges that “Chinese dominance in Asia would be very different from American dominance,” partly because China’s “authoritarian system” is “less benign than the American model of government.” No kidding.
Domestically the Chinese government disdains the rule of law, denies property rights and crushes political dissent. Overseas it operates as if only might makes right, and today it is forcing confrontations across nearly all of its borders—not just around the South China Sea but with Japan to the northeast and India to the southwest.
Though Mr. Kaplan doesn’t say so, such behavior derives not from natural Chinese nationalism but from the worldview—or moral character—of this Chinese regime.
Beijing’s aggressive character is what frightens its neighbors and convinces U.S. strategists across the ideological spectrum that, as Mr. Kaplan puts it, “accepting an imperium over much of the hemisphere run by Beijing would be irresponsible.” He suggests that the U.S. can prevent this as long as Washington pursues only “modest” defense cuts that “do not fundamentally affect America’s Pacific forces” and that therefore allow Washington to balance rising Chinese power.
This posture would still require serious investments of U.S. power and prestige—investments that the American people are likelier to support if they understand China’s bullying not just as a far-off territorial quarrel, as Mr. Kaplan suggests, but as a strategic and moral challenge to the U.S.-led liberal international order.
Mr. Feith is an editorial writer at The Wall Street Journal based in Hong Kong.]
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303802104579451152484714452
jeffemu@1215
Nice one Jeff – Shorten shaking hands with the workers 🙂
Sceptic
[I was under the impression you came from a Aussie Rules state, Slamin Sam is like the Fly Doormat Bruce Doull from the last generation of real football players.]
No, Sydney born and bred. I never followed the code. The only Doull I know of is a Kiwi bowler. (Simon, if I recall correctly)
[Direct & to the point…. none of this hands off pass the ball 20 times to go nowhere that passes for the game today]
I’m not sure what that means. Presumably that sort of play is undesirable these days. What I recall of VFL made it look like a really badly played and poorly refereed game of scratch football.
The Kekovic(h) (I had never seen the name spelled) character seems a lot like HG and not meant to be taken seriously. Sadly, the Poe rule applies.
😉
[ leone
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink
Pru Goward is NSW’s new Minister for Planning. I wondered why on earth this incompetent fool had been given this portfolio. ]
Pretty straight forward reason really.
She wanted to run as Deputy Leader in the recent ballot, while the new leader and most of the party wanted a ticket which was uncontested, ie Baird & Gladys.
Goward was muchly cheesed off at being pressured to withdraw her candidacy.
Joint the dots….
But all still not lost – Goward is still a drop kick and an error prone one at that. 🙂
jeffemu @ 1215
[If a picture paints a thousand words…
How relevant is this one. (sent to me on facebook)
Tony Abbott….. The workers are my bestest friends !
Roxanna@1175
And what a great job those Catalina crews did!
I think there is still one in flying condition in Australia and a few on display at various locations.
A few years ago the wife and I went for a long weekend away at Swan Hill and on the way called in at Lake Boga.
I had never heard of it before but did some research before our trip and read all about it. It was a training and repair facility for Catalinas during WWII. Selected because it was well inland and beyond range of any likely carrier borne strike. It is almost perfectly round and so allowed take off and landing with any wind direction.
There is a rather dilapidated Catalina on display and a museum of sorts.
[The head of the Prime Minister’s Indigenous Advisory Council, Warren Mundine, has warned his fellow councillors to be prepared to be among the most hated people in Australia after next month’s federal budget.
Mr Mundine has told the ABC he expects there will be cuts to Indigenous funding in the budget as the number of program areas is reduced from about 150 to five as part of a “realignment” of spending.
The five key program areas identified by Mr Mundine are: health, education, jobs, law and sustainable communities.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-26/mundine-talks-about-fears-for-indigenous-budget-next-month/5412894
I have no sympathy for Mundine. He would’ve known that this Liberal govt perhaps more so than any other was champing at the bit to cut services and funding, so he’s got no excuse IMO.
jeffemu
[
If a picture paints a thousand words…]
With this as a caption.
[I’m best friend of workers: Abbott
OPPOSITION Leader Tony Abbott declared that Australian workers would find he was ”their best friend” ]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/im-best-friend-of-workers-abbott-20120712-21yvv.html
‘Fess
[ I have no sympathy for Mundine. He would’ve known that this Liberal govt perhaps more so than any other was champing at the bit to cut services and funding, so he’s got no excuse IMO. ]
He’s got his forty pieces of silver – hope he chokes on them.
An utterly disgusting piece of work.
Met a long time supporter – and very canny political operator, who had Mirabella convinced she was not just a fellow traveller but a friend — who told me she’ll be joining the party…because of Bill Shorten.
@Confessions/1225
So much for the job creator Mr Abbott.
Sorry Bemused for my non response last night. I was at my local drinking beer.
My father wasn’t at Sandakan. That was lyrical licence. He was instead with the RAAF at Balikpapen in Borneo towards the end of the war. Nevertheless I think from the things Mum said some fifty years later that he suffered PTSD – nightmares, hiding under the bed etc.
dave:
I’m not at all convinced about Abbott’s commitment to indigenous affairs, despite his many public declarations. I think he uses indigenous communities the way a lot of god-botherers use the disadvantaged: to make themselves look good and pious, not necessarily to benefit those they are claiming to help.
Mundine took that risk of shackling himself so strongly to Abbott, so he’s got no choice now but stick it out until the end.
Dave and other war mongers
I am getting scared, very scared in a way that I have NOT felt since I was a child living with the Nuclear threat of the Cold War. I remember walking hand in hand around the play ground with my by then former best friend, both in fear of our lives. We did not speak again for the rest of our lives but that day I DO recall.
Now I fear that Russia and China have said ENOUGH and they will fight strategic encirclement by the USA.
So here is what I feel sure WILL happen
1. China will get very agro in the Sth China Sea. It will sieze any and all small islands along the way, with the objective of securing its sea lanes
2. China will be VERY friendly to Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand, once again so they can safely move goods through their waters.
3. China MAY try to take Taiwan but would be just as happy with neutrality – ie so long as Taiwan does not host hostile forces. The reality is that their is REAL friendship between China and Taiwan, attested by the ease with which Chinese and Taiwanese kids mingle. At my place right now is a Taiwanese boy with a Chinese girl friend. There is however hostility between the Japanese and Chinese kids, although in part it is the language barrier. Taiwanese boy’s dad recently worked in China and aunts and uncles regularly move between the two countries. Taiwan has just STOPPED compulsory military service.
4. China will massively expand its submarine and other naval fleet (already HAS)
6. China will befriend every island in the South pacific, in order to protect sea lanes
7. China will cease trade with Australia in order to weaken us financially and damage a key US ally. China will build up relations with South Ameriaca and other suppliers of raw materials, especially those with a Pacific coast line
8. China will become bestest buddies with Russia.
Now how did I work this our. Looked at a map. If you suddenly shifted the entire population of the USA to Chia with all its “liberties” etc it would be exactly the same.
zoomster
Just to clarify, this was a long time supporter of Mirabella?
zoomster@1228
Good to see the ALP gaining a member, but a long way to go.
Shorten has talked about doubling the membership to 100,000. This morning, in one of BK’s links, I read the ACF is looking at doubling their membership from 200,000 to 400,000.
That kind of gives a bit of perspective on ALP membership. Even with 100,000 members, it is dwarfed by membership of a pressure group!
100,000 should be seen as just the first step.
Zoomster,
[Met a long time supporter – and very canny political operator, who had Mirabella convinced she was not just a fellow traveller but a friend — who told me she’ll be joining the party…because of Bill Shorten.]
It looks like she was able to play them like a fiddle.
To what extent is ALP reform possible? Should it be piecemeal or totally radical? Here’s an example of the latter.
Cue: “Sign in Stranger” by Steely Dan.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODuEin4RdDw
Have you heard about the boom in the join-up drive
We’ve got a plan for us to stay alive
Gonna open up to everyone
Doesn’t matter if you’re Clive or Scott Ludlam
We’ll take anyone who comes along
In a pin-stripe suit or with a bong
The fact we got Joe out in the West
Shows that we recruit only the best
:- (
You zombies
Be born again my friends
Won’t you sign in stranger?
:- (
We’ll even take Tones along for the ride
With his weathervane, he’s qualified
Give the finger to those leftie union dudes
Even if the bills are paid through their dues
And maybe we can sign up Alan Jones
Lots of recruits in the retired zones
Folks’ll be in a line around the block
What the heck, at least we’ll be outta hock
:- (
You zombies
Be born again my friends
Won’t you sign in stranger?
:- (
Like or lump it, don’t you dump it
Sure, it’s all in the game
And who are you
Just another scurvy brother
:- (
You zombies
Be born again my friends
Won’t you sign in stranger?
roger bottomley@1230
There were only 6 survivors of Sandakan. It was straight out murder and, despite my general opposition to capital punishment, I think any Jap involved in that horror should have been shot. Same goes for some of the other horrific events.
Interesting following WW2 Tweets. Not all Japanese military were inhumane and they reported an incident on the Bataan Death March where a Japanese officer received orders to kill his batch of prisoners. He turned them loose and reported they had escaped into the jungle.
Confessions and Dave
Could not agree with you more!
Mundine is a disgrace – to think he was once President of the NSW ALP.
Thirty pieces of silver comes to mind.
victoria
no, she’s always been Labor, but didn’t want to say so publically because she’s an advocate for the local disabled.
She says it’s the change to the rules about belonging to a union which swayed her – I did tell her that’s never been an impediment, but I thought it was interesting that she had seen it to be.
sceptic
Here is another connection between Pat Sergi and the former NSW Lab MP Tripodi
[The spoils of this potential $100 million development in Restwell Street, Prairiewood, has escalated into a feud among a who’s who of the Labor-linked Italian community in the area, with lifelong allegiances in tatters.]
[The financing of the deal, which has been organised by Mr Leonello through obscure companies and with little consultation, has ignited the war between club members, whose founders include the furniture moguls Nick Scali and Tony Brescia and the controversial businessmen Pat Sergi and Tony Labbozzetta]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tripodi-caught-up-in-100m-land-deal-dispute-20111117-1nl6n.html#ixzz2zx8ZJAmp
[Dave and other war mongers
I am getting scared, very scared in a way that I have NOT felt since I was a child living with the Nuclear threat of the Cold War. I remember walking hand in hand around the play ground with my by then former best friend, both in fear of our lives. We did not speak again for the rest of our lives but that day I DO recall.]
So, you survived the Nuclear threat. On the evidence, MAD worked.
[Now I fear that Russia and China have said ENOUGH and they will fight strategic encirclement by the USA.]
Your assumption that Russia and/or China are passive nations responding to external initiatives would be worth testing.
[So here is what I feel sure WILL happen
[1. China will get very agro in the Sth China Sea. It will sieze any and all small islands along the way, with the objective of securing its sea lanes.]
China IS getting very aggressive in the South China Sea but this is not necessarily in response to US initiatives. In any case, it takes two to tango. There are multiple objectives. One of these is grabbing resources. Smaller players like the Philippines are the current victims of daylight robbery by the Chinese.
[2. China will be VERY friendly to Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand, once again so they can safely move goods through their waters.]
There is a long history involving Malaysia and Indonesia that virtually guarantee that these two countries are hostile to China. This has to do with domestic relations between chinese and, broadly speaking, malays. Both these have involved very substantial post-colonial mass murder.
[3. China MAY try to take Taiwan but would be just as happy with neutrality – ie so long as Taiwan does not host hostile forces. The reality is that their is REAL friendship between China and Taiwan, attested by the ease with which Chinese and Taiwanese kids mingle. At my place right now is a Taiwanese boy with a Chinese girl friend. There is however hostility between the Japanese and Chinese kids, although in part it is the language barrier. Taiwanese boy’s dad recently worked in China and aunts and uncles regularly move between the two countries. Taiwan has just STOPPED compulsory military service.]
Relations between China and Taiwan are on the significant improve at the moment.
[4. China will massively expand its submarine and other naval fleet (already HAS)]
True.
[6. China will befriend every island in the South pacific, in order to protect sea lanes]
They are cheap buys.
[7. China will cease trade with Australia in order to weaken us financially and damage a key US ally. China will build up relations with South Ameriaca and other suppliers of raw materials, especially those with a Pacific coast line]
China has, is, and will, use trade to improve its political and strategic positioning. So does every other great power. Australia has a significant cost advantage over South America in terms of resources because of the freight distance and this will, over time, be the most significant issue for Chinese buyers.
[8. China will become bestest buddies with Russia.]
Around 15 centuries of history says you are wrong.
[Now how did I work this our. Looked at a map. If you suddenly shifted the entire population of the USA to Chia with all its “liberties” etc it would be exactly the same.]
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by daretotread on Apr 26, 2014 at 11:26 am
Zoomster
Thanks
daretotread@1232
That is of course your absolute worst case scenario.
And I think you have jumped the shark when you refer to ‘Dave and other war mongers’.
I have a more optimistic view and believe that the US and China have much to gain from co-operation. e.g. They might jointly be able to clean up that mess that is North Korea, a place that is a real threat of war.
China, like Russia, does not want US bases on it’s borders.
Oops i forgot to post this
[FORMER Labor powerbroker Joe Tripodi was allegedly secretly behind a bid to hijack a $100 million development of prime land owned by an Italian community club in Sydney’s southwest.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/attempted-club-coup-shows-joe-tripodi-still-likes-behind-the-scenes-power/story-e6freuzi-1226487653099
It seems highly unlikely Direct Action will get through the Senate. Not only has Clive Palmer said his mob won’t vote for it
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-22/palmer-suggests-he-wont-back-direct-action-policy/5402712
— saying that, if it’s part of the Budget, he’ll regard that as a form of blackmail and rethink support for repealing the carbon and mining taxes—
but the rest of the crossbench seems equally determined —
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2241431/direct-action-could-fail-even-without-palmer-united-party/?cs=7
Of course, this may be playing into Abbott’s hands, as I’m sure taking absolutely no action on climate change suits him down to the ground, but it raises another question in my mind — is this actually part of a deliberate strategy?
Direct Action doesn’t look like it will get up. There’s been similar rumblings about the PPL.
If neither of the government’s ‘signature’ policies get up, they can blame inaction in these areas on the Senate, whilst saving money by not implementing them, and go to the next election saying ‘we wudda if we cudda, don’t blame us for not delivering.”
I don’t see the government going to a DD on either issue. I don’t think they’ve commited to a DD if Direct Action doesn’t get up, just if they can’t repeal the carbon ‘tax’.
Leone 1218
My sister(who is usually quite conservative) is a constituent of Prue Goward, she hates her so much she went on the campaign for the independent who ran against her the election before last and almost won. Unfortunately didn’t run last election.
Sister still hasn’t changed her mind on M/s Goward 😀
Seems to me that the government and its advisors/lobbyists are cherry-picking facts (so what’s new?).
[In the Grattan Institute’s recent policy brief, Daley points to ABS data showing that most people over 65 who are not working have chosen not to – because they have reached retirement age and are eligible for a pension or superannuation.
But this glosses over the substantial other factors that have contributed to retirement decisions. For retired people who have held a job in the last 20 years (using the same ABS data, table 6), 13% were no longer working because they had lost a job, a temporary job had finished, or they could not find a job. A further 23% had retired because of own sickness, illness or disability with 4.5% retired to care for someone ill, disabled or elderly. These factors account for around 40% of retirement or leaving the workforce decisions.
They relate to two major challenges for the older workforce. The first is obtaining and maintaining employment in later life. The data suggests that regaining a job is difficult for many if a job is lost, precipitating a decision to retire. Age discrimination barriers are more significant than either the Productivity Commission or the Grattan Institute acknowledge in their reports.
The second challenge relates to capacity for work. The argument most often posited is that life expectancy is now much longer than it was when the age pension was introduced over 100 years ago, with an eligibility age of 65 for men and 60 for women. So the logic goes that it makes sense to lift the eligibility age. Daley calls this a “pretty obvious reform”.
. . . But life expectancy (mortality) is not the only consideration. Health status (morbidity) is also important.]
http://theconversation.com/pension-reform-and-the-budget-crisis-a-less-than-mature-debate-25652?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The+Weekend+Conversation&utm_content=The+Weekend+Conversation+CID_dd73437e44783f7ab81ddde459fcfba7&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Pension%20reform%20and%20the%20budget%20crisis%20a%20less%20than%20mature%20debate
So, the Greens are getting in to bed with Palmer once again to stop action against climate change.
Those Greens.
I’m not sure how tenuous theories of the MH370 disappearance have to be, to no longer be relevant on a psephological blog. But I’ll chime in with industrial sabotage:
Perhaps the Russian’s have a suspicion that Boeing arranged the Sukhoi Superjet crash into Mount Salak in 2011?
Wasn’t the MH370 on a closer trajectory to French Kerguelen? Maybe the French had an aircraft carrier nearby and sought the parts to reverse engineer it to make better Airbuses.
But the pings from the ‘Black Box’ seem pretty definitive. I am surprised that the multiple pickups haven’t helped locate the plane, though. There was a very good analysis in Wired suggesting a fire.
And this was the same Joe Tripodi who tried for a position at Club Marconi, but the Italians wouldn’t have a bar of him! lol, they can spot them
[Australia hasn’t twigged to it yet, but the Abbott government is about to announce the most dramatic changes to the higher education sector in decades.
There have been clues to the coming revolution, a sweeping deregulation that will attempt to emulate the best features of the US system while avoiding the worst.
The federal Education Minister, Christopher Pyne, is expected to announce the new system on or before budget night, May 13.
The changes have not been to the cabinet for discussion, but that’s standard in budget season. Pyne does have the support he needs, however, that of his Prime Minister and his Treasurer.
Speculation about the budget’s effects on the elderly has largely overwhelmed attention to its potential effects on students.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tough-task-in-higher-learning-20140425-379k6.html#ixzz2zxFd5j4O