Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 15 of 17
1 14 15 16 17
  1. [Also, did the ABC reporter indicate that early in March a Telegraph journo sent a text to ask BOF if he’d received a bottle of wine from Nick and BOF, replied “No”?]

    Fair go Atticus. Lying to a liar is OK.

    But it does seem there was a sort of nexus of right-wing haters out to get O’Farrell.

    Hadley, Singleton, the Catholic Right… something’s fishy there.

    Note also that abbott said BOF was one of his greatest friends.

    Kiss of death time when he says that. Just ask Arfur. Ask Reithy. Ask Hockey.

    Why they have said in the past that Abbott is “loyal above all else” it’s always seemed to me to be a case of protesting far too much.

  2. Do we know yet where ICAC got the note from? Did Nick provide it voluntarily. My guess is that they subpoenaed his records and someone went back and had a look after Bazza’s testimony.

  3. “@WillinManly: RT @JasonMorrisonAU NSW liberal MPs getting calls from Gladys. Mike Baird is at an infrastructure conference and out of contact. #nswpol”

  4. “@Kate_McClymont: #ICAC has made it plain there was no “set up” as some Libs r claiming. They received the note at 9.17am, no doubt brought in by Nicky D G”

  5. Skynews interviewee brought in to give support to Speers and Gilbert, but epic fail when the guy moans: “I want to defend Barry O’ Farrell, but I’m struggling.”

  6. NO Set-up!

    #ICAC has made it plain there was no “set up” as some Libs r claiming. They received the note at 9.17am, no doubt brought in by Nicky D G

    Did the BOF do the dirty on Nick?….

  7. Well, at least Girolamo is giving the lie to the notion that is is just Greeks and Lebanese bearing gifts that you have to watch out for.

  8. Next ICAC investigation into Packer Casino?
    Although the Libs probably drafted ” unsolicited proposals” legislation to allow avenue for what would normally be corrupt approach

  9. Atticus:

    [Skynews interviewee brought in to give support to Speers and Gilbert, but epic fail when the guy moans: “I want to defend Barry O’ Farrell, but I’m struggling.”]

    Abbott had no such reluctance – calling BOF’s resignation “honorable”, and that BOF’s fib to ICAC was “inadvertent” and “innocent”.

    Abbott was bending over backwards to defend BOF – so much so that his eyes starting bulging out of his head when a journo mentioned the word “corruption”.

  10. “@Kate_McClymont: Meanwhile, The Oracle (Kostopoulos) is going off at Nicky Di G about his dealings with the Parrot, radio host Alan Jones #icac”

  11. kakuru

    On serious note…. given that Grange is the most iconic wine gift anyone could ever get & would be unforgettable, only excuse possible is Barry drank it solo one night & lost his memory with the hangover

  12. B. B.,
    As usual, spot on.

    My use of question marks was extra precaution in case I’d misheard what she said.

    A Skynews interviewee made a big deal out of BOF and his minders not doing “the cleaner in Pulp Fiction” immediately upon receipt of the question from Telegraph journo in early March. Naturally, orders from Murdocracy’s top brass have all the Skynews pundits sticking to BOF is NOT, I say NOT, corrupt, but this interviewee was gobsmacked by the amateurism and stupidity of BOF’s staffers.

  13. My takeaway from all of this is to never trust wine connoisseurs. I’ve never taste a good bottle of wine that cost more than $10. In NSW, that would make me incorruptible.

  14. sceptic:

    [On serious note…. given that Grange is the most iconic wine gift anyone could ever get & would be unforgettable, only excuse possible is Barry drank it solo one night & lost his memory with the hangover]

    Yep, we’ve all been there. Every time I receive a bottle of $3K Grange, I tie it on and get totally sh*tfaced – and forget what happened the next day. Perfectly understandable.

  15. Kakuru,

    I’m amazed Abbott didn’t give her a fair whack of the famous multi-minute stare he gave to Channel 7’s guy for asking about insensitive comments Abbott made in the Middle-East. 🙂

  16. “@Kate_McClymont: According to BoF having seen the letter and envelope it still doesn’t spark a memory of receiving the bottle of wine #ICAC @barryofarrell”

  17. Atticus:

    [I’m amazed Abbott didn’t give her a fair whack of the famous multi-minute stare he gave to Channel 7′s guy for asking about insensitive comments Abbott made in the Middle-East]

    No, this time it was just confected outrage from Abbott. I think I prefer the stare.

  18. [Well, at least Girolamo is giving the lie to the notion that is is just Greeks and Lebanese bearing gifts that you have to watch out for]

    Italians, too, it seems. It’s clearly the “wog mentality”. Greasy bastards, all of ’em…

    (Shit… has s.18 been repealed yet?)

    It was either Nicky d’G or BOF. Don’t forget Nicky was up on a perjury charge perhaps if Barry could prove he hadn’t supped from the cup.

  19. “@craigjack36: Sky is now reporting she now has the numbers

    So Gladys Berejiklian next NSW Premier ?

    Abbott wont like a Woman in his boys club
    #auspol”

  20. I saw Gladys in Phillip Street the other day and I must say that, for a politician, she has exceptionally good legs. OK, OK, that’s sexist talk. But I’ve been repressed by political correctness for too long.

  21. Louise Pratt concedes defeat, gives Joe Bullock what-for:

    [Gareth Parker ‏@G_Parker 13m
    Pratt says Bullock is deeply homophobic, anti choice and recently proved disloyal.

    Gareth Parker ‏@G_Parker 11m
    Pratt says she feels like she was campaigning with her hand tied behind her back. “Hiding” Bullock “was never going to be enough”.]

  22. K07

    [I saw Gladys in Phillip Street the other day and I must say that, for a politician, she has exceptionally good legs.]

    Given the state of Sydney’s transport (of which she is Minister), she probably does a lot of walking.

  23. Liberals doing their customary black is white.

    B’OF:

    (1) failed to keep his pecuniary interests updated.
    (2) in the face of damning documentary evidence, allegedly lied under oath
    (3) received what might be regarded as a bribe worth $3,000.
    (4) implied that Girolamo had lied under oath which, whatever one might think of Girolamo, is a nasty bit of work in its own right
    (5) tried to hide a pattern of involvement with Girolamo.

    So what do the Liberals say? B’OF ‘made a mistake’ and took a fall for the purposes of maintaining government integrity.

    Everyone makes mistakes, right?

    And if Abbott keeps stating that Sinodinos and O’Farrell are shining examples of people of the highest integrity and honesty in the Liberal Party, what must the rest of them be like?

  24. K17:

    [Hah, hah. Maybe Tony will give her legs and endorsement.]

    Legs or no legs, the career of the last female Premier of NSW didn’t end well.

  25. What does Tony mean by this ….
    During a press conference about Badgerys Creek this morning, Prime Minister Tony Abbott said of Mr O’Farrell: “He texted me that I should call him and by the time I saw the text, I think he was about to go in and make his statement and we had a brief conversation and I said to him that he was acting from high honour here and I just said how sorry I was that this wasn’t happening in three or four years’ time because Barry is a man of honour……

    …sorry I was that this wasn’t happening in three or four years’ time….. is Tony conceding that he’s now a one term PM?

  26. All the wanker Liberals who are saying that BOF honestly forgot are forgetting that he had a duty to declare all gifts on the pecuniary interest register!

    Clearly BOF didn’t declare it because he didn’t think it would look good being associated with NDG.

Comments Page 15 of 17
1 14 15 16 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *