Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. I see that BOF has resigned and has started singing. Cue: “La Grange” by ZZ Top (thanks to Dan Gulberry for the suggestion).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3RLIU7T39I

    Rumour confirmed around, in ol’ Sydney town
    ‘Bout my demise re the Grange
    And you know what I’m talkin’ about
    Just let the Governor know, I’m really on the nose
    Have to retire to that home, home on the range
    Hear they got a nice cellar there ah
    :- (
    For my own-goal
    ICAC have mercy
    On my forgetful soul
    Looks like they’re gonna go:
    Kapow…pow…pow…pow…pow…
    Kapow…pow…pow…
    :- (
    Well, it could be time, for me down the line
    Never thought I’d get dragged in
    A…hmm…hmm…
    Only meant to trap, just those Labor chaps
    Script needs to be re-written
    Hmm…hmm…hmm
    Ah…have mercy…

  2. ‘who will greet the royals in Sydney?’

    Radio criticising Jay Weatherall. Apparently not going to be in Adelaide to greet the royals.

    Fiasco, really. Innit. Now this.

  3. What I find so effing galling is that prick Abbott standing there saying you can’t expect these things to be “front of mind”. F#ck me, if he’d only shown Gillard that level of leeway.

  4. Just like Richard Nixon and Watergate, the coverup is what got him.

    Why did he lie to ICAC, what was he hiding, why ruin an otherwise stellar career? Why?

  5. Nick obvious kept his last card until last. Oh, he must be pissed off.
    The Liberal Party in NSW isn’t the party of developers and the liquor industry, they ARE the developers and liquor industry.

  6. I hope ICAC have bugs in place on all the key players phones – could be hilarious all the calls this morning!

    I assume there is an exclusive Sydney club once reserved only for gentlemen – it’s shady corners will take a beating today.

  7. The follow up question to Abbott regarding his “front of mind’ comment is “Do you declare all of your political gifts?”

  8. “@latikambourke: March 11 2014 the Senate was told “The Prime Minister has not met with Mr Nick Di Girolamo.” Today PM Abbott can’t rule that out.”

  9. “Why did he lie to ICAC, what was he hiding, why ruin an otherwise stellar career? Why?”

    A very good question. This is either the biggest white lie balls up every, or, something fishy is going on and is still to be smoked out.

  10. [643
    rossmcg

    Briefly

    It would seem to me that Nick G decided that he had had enough of being the fall guy.]

    This also suggests there is a lot more to this racket than has so far been disclosed. oF’s reference to ALL the help is intriguing. What help is oF alluding to?

  11. These journos are morons. “Why was he so emphatic in denying he ever received wine? Why?”

    Scratch a bit further, idiots.

  12. Not a bad result, considering at one stage BOF was claiming he’d never met Nicky G.

    What does “ALL your help” (sic) mean?

    Maybe we’ll find out this afternoon.

  13. Sky have said about 12 times “Barry is not corrupt, this is not corrupt behaviour”.

    I’m surprised there isn’t a O’FARRELL IS NOT CORRUPT running byline.

  14. Cheryl ‏@cheryl_suzette 2m
    @JustJen64 @randlight He’s gone off to pray another plane goes missing.
    View conversation Reply Retweeted Favorite

    love this tweet

  15. Lynchpin

    BOF had plenty of notice that nick g had given evidence of the gift. To have answered so unequivocally about not receiving it and given a bs story about holidaying on the Gold Coast with the family smacks of arrogance, stupidity or crimininality…or all three.

  16. In denial

    [The NSW Education Minister and Member for Murrumbidgee, Adrian Piccoli, says he is shocked by the announcement, adding that the focus of ICAC should be disgraced former MP Eddie Obeid.

    “Barry has to be one of the most honest and decent people I’ve ever met,” he said.

    “He’s obviously come to this decision based on actually how honest he is.

    “I only know what I’ve seen in the media and read and heard.

    “So we lose one of the best premiers we’ve had, over a $3000 bottle of wine.”]

    They’ve uncorked the bottle and the genie is out of control

  17. Quite clearly, Nick Di Girolamo is the Liberal party’s Eddie Obeid.

    Every party has them.

    Why the Libs tried to make out otherwise is anybody’s guess.

    Next… Tony Abbott.

  18. step forward, NSW Treasurer Mike Baird (brother of Julia, Son of Bruce) – your State requires your services after an unplanned vacancy has arisen.

  19. Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 3m

    The newspaper with no friends .. You can’t even give it away @australian #media #auspol @rupertmurdoch pic.twitter.com/A1KcYAtrwo

  20. [665
    guytaur

    “@latikambourke: March 11 2014 the Senate was told “The Prime Minister has not met with Mr Nick Di Girolamo.” Today PM Abbott can’t rule that out.”]

    Who else among the NSW Liberal elite have had dealings with Di-G? Abbott…seems likely. Hockey….must be a possibility. Turnbull? Who else in the NSW Cabinet?

    AWH was set up as a high-volume siphon, pumping money into the NSW Liberal Party. Money buys influence. There was a lot of money. So there’s likely to have been a lot of influence-peddling. It’s perhaps no wonder at all that Sinodinos walked even before he was sent into bat.

  21. ABC-24 now making the point that the infrastructure announcements today have been a fizzer.

    Airport? Motorways? Train lines? Meh…

    Abbott thinks O’Farrell acted out of a sense of honour.

    Simpler explanation: he got caught.

  22. Did the ABC’s ICAC hearings reporter on 24News suggest that there’s a BOF text trail of not infrequent exchanges of messages with Nick Di? Did BOF indicate in ICAC yesterday that his acquaintanceship with Nick was minimal?

    Also, did the ABC reporter indicate that early in March a Telegraph journo sent a text to ask BOF if he’d received a bottle of wine from Nick and BOF, replied “No”?

    Obviously, The Tele not reporting this last March would have been different from how the Murdoch empire would have dealt with this denial if it had been a Labor Premier).

  23. The big question is whether Barry will now be charged with misleading ICAC. As things presently stand, I think he’s heading for a world of grief.

  24. ATTICUS – I’ve got the impression that Murdoch doesn’t care much about the State Govt because it’s got nothing to offer (can’t knacker the NBN, etc etc), so Bazza is red meat to throw to its readers.

  25. If there’s a “squeaky clean-skin” appointed as the new Premier, a virtual unknown, then what does that say for the usual suspects who otherwise would have been candidates?

  26. The new premier of NSW may be a backbencher. Quentin Demptser makes the point it will have to be someone with no connection with slush funds,

    That means no perceived influence. So no gifts etc sent their way.

  27. I haven’t felt this good since Mitch Johnson took 4 out of nowhere at Brisbane last year.

    [A very good question. This is either the biggest white lie balls up every, or, something fishy is going on and is still to be smoked out.]

    Oh, it’s game on. Sinodinos chose to cover himself in poo like an old demented man rather than answer the questions, while BoF played down the wrong line to a straight one. The Libs are rattled.

    The whole AWH thing is looking to me like Eddie O had stumbled upon a Liberal party midnight feast, and decided to invite himself to the table.

  28. “@ClayLucas: Hear hear “@grhutchens: Good on @NicBerko for her question about NSW govt corruption at the presser today.” @TonyAbbottMHR response VERY odd”

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