BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor”

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  4. [ Someone was asking earlier about whether Sinodinos had made use of section 38 of the ICAC act – I believe he has, as it is recorded as such in the transcript from ICAC. ]

    From the previous thread.

    That could cause him to come in for some flak if he does return to the Senate. Doug Cameron’s retort to Sinodos’ silly comments in the Senate included the advice that if he was really satisfied he had acted properly he would have no need to make use of section 38.

    Lol! if Dougie doesn’t get him for that, you can bet Wong will. 🙂

  5. Senate counting isn’t a great deal of fun at the best of times, and unless there’s a real boilover in PUP votes or collapse in one of the majors the only excitement of this election is going to be in who gets the last seat, and that’s not something that it’s sensible to make many predictions about on the night.

  8. imacca

    It could be the most interesting coverage yet. Mr Green won’t spend the whole night lecturing the nation about the advantages of OPV.

  12. ‘It was a rough place – the seediest dive on the wharf. Populated with every reject and cutthroat from Bombay to Calcutta. It’s worse than a Board of Directors setup by Eddie Obeid.’

  15. [So, in Abbott’s world, $200k for 50 hours work is Good but 50 cents an hour ‘shiny tin allowance’ is Evil.]

    Excellent argument!

  16. Zoomster,

    It really seems to be a variation on the theme of “people on $150,000 PA are struggling but a base wage of 28,000 PA is too much”

  18. Wasn’t the ‘shiny tin allowance’ extra money paid to forklift drives to stack the raw tins which needed special handling so there were not damaged?

  22. [ Wasn’t the ‘shiny tin allowance’ extra money paid to forklift drives to stack the raw tins which needed special handling so there were not damaged? ]

    Yup, but mere trifling skills of Bogans in handling actual heavy machinery in such a way as to perhaps enhance the productivity of a business and reduce wastage, pale into insignificance compared to the value adding capabilities of well connected person of quality engaged in guiding our captains of industry through the Byzantine horrors of interacting with a Labor Government. Surely that’s obvious??

  23. mikehilliard

    Also An article noted at the time that someone earning that “extravagant” allowance would take (from memory) a couple of years to earn from it what it cost for Toad of Toad Hall’s bespoke bookcase.

  24. Re Zoidlord @9 Joe Hockey 6th August 2013:
    “We will own the economy from day one, whether it’s Labor’s fault or not. I’m not afraid to accept responsibility and I’m not afraid to be accountable.”

    It’s another case that we silly voters heard the wrong thing. What he actually said was “we own all the good stuff and take credit for it. And Labor owns all the bad stuff and is accountable for that, for as long as we can get away with it.”

  26. Looks like we should forget the “1%” it is the “0.1%” that have been sucking the money out of the rest of us.

    [ Since the 1960s, the richest one-thousandth of U.S. households have more than doubled their share of U.S. wealth.

    Forget the 1 percent. The winners of this race, according to Zucman and Saez, have been the 0.1 percent. Since the 1960s, the richest one-thousandth of U.S. households,…. have more than doubled their share of U.S. wealth, from around 10 percent to more than 20 percent………By comparison, the entire top 1 percent of households takes in about 22 percent of U.S. income, counting capital gains. While the super-rich have risen, the merely affluent have barely budged…………… And so an exceptionally tiny circle of Americans is not only commanding a greater and greater share of pay, but – if Saez and Zucman are right – they are successfully consolidating their fortunes far faster than 99.9 percent of the country. At the risk of sounding a little melodramatic, this is how an aristocracy gets built]
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11231645

  27. mikehilliard

    The Royal Stuffup.

    From the beginning, Abbott has shown no awareness of the behaviour required by the PM of this country. No respect for anyone. For all his supposed “Britishness” and support for the Monarchy, the Queen had to push him away as he rabbitted on about his own grievances; he introduces local politics into formal speeches to overseas dignitaries, and is generally self-centred. He is neither a diplomat nor a negotiator, because he always concentrates on himself.

    I am ashamed that I was born in the same country as this man, and cringe every time it is mentioned.

  28. And this is the office of the “great communicator”, the “journalist” ?

    [When I contacted the PM’s press office – the most arrogant, secretive and insulting PM’s office I have ever had the misfortune to deal with in my several decades as a journalist – they refused to comment and, indeed, slammed their phone down in my ear.]

  29. The moving force in the Senate contest appears to have been PUP, who are likely to peel support away from both Labor and the LNP, while not affecting Green support at all. There has to be a very good chance that PUP will displace the third LNP prospect while Labor will win 2 and the Greens 1.

    PUP has spent lavishly on messages that are likely to resonate with at least some mining-dependent voters and be able to capture some of the nascent disaffection with the LNP. It doesn’t seem that Labor have made up much ground – if any – so far.

    I have no knowledge of how long it is since the LNP won just 2/6 seats in a WA half-Senate election but if it happens it could be without precedent.

    My prediction for the Senate re-election is:

    LNP 2
    PUP 1
    ALP 2
    Greens 1

    I think there is at least a 65% chance of this. The next most likely outcome would be

    LNP 3
    PUP 0
    ALP 2
    Greens 1

    There is a very small risk of

    LNP 3
    PUP 1
    ALP 1
    Greens 1

  32. [ I am ashamed that I was born in the same country as this man, and cringe every time it is mentioned. ]

    I am ashamed that I was born in the same country as the voters who voted him into government and I cringe every time it is mentioned he is PM.

    He is doing nothing but tear stuff down and is highly unlikely to do anything else.

  33. Re Poroti @26: aristocracy, working poor, a corrupted electoral system, State Governments and the major current opposition party captured by religious crackpots and other sectional interests, with unaccountable corporations and a rogue financial sector – is the USA headed for the third world?

  34. [Looks like we should forget the “1%” it is the “0.1%” that have been sucking the money out of the rest of us.]

    But this group doesn’t like paying tax and so while they would never socialize with them or like travel in planes with them (the people in first class are soooo common) it is good to group with the whole top 1% or even the top 5% or 10% for the purposes of trying to avoid paying tax.

  36. Re Milehillard @17: the last para in the linked article about the right Royal stuff up was ‘what a disaster’.

    ‘What an idiot’ may have been more apt.

  37. Steve777

    Recent US Supreme court decisions opened up the floodgates for billionaires pumping money into political parties. Oligarchy-r-Us well on the way. Not that we are much better with our local billionaires owning so much of the media and controlling “the message” .

  38. [Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 7:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Re Milehillard @17: the last para in the linked article about the right Royal stuff up was ‘what a disaster’.

    ‘What an idiot’ may have been more apt.]

    Essentially, the Queen was expected to serve Abbott, rather than Abbott serving the Queen.

  40. [17
    mikehilliard

    What a right Royal stuff up.]

    Abbott – very deep down – thinks that he exercises all the prerogatives of a monarch and can do as he pleases. Yer actual Queen is purely a prop.

  42. Re Citizen @38: Abbott isn’t even a proper Monarchist. Any Labor leader you could think of would get the formalities right. Keating and Whitlam would never have acted that way.

  43. Bernard Keane @BernardKeane

    What we really need is a system where there’s free speech for middle-aged white men and their companies, and everyone else has to STFU.

  44. [I have no knowledge of how long it is since the LNP won just 2/6 seats in a WA half-Senate election]

    Never. Half-Senate elections have only been for six seats since 1990, and the Liberals have won three seats every time since.

  45. [What we really need is a system where there’s free speech for middle-aged white men and their companies, and everyone else has to STFU]

    As long as there is an alliance with middle aged white women we have a shot.

    But the reality is it is the babyboomers who with their population bump and highly selfish evolution through life that call the shots. Sadly for them it takes quite a degree of self deception for these guys to still claim to be middle aged.

  46. [@AKBakota: QLD State Reachtel Poll: 39.1 LNP (-10.55%) 35.1 ALP (+8.49) 8 PUP 7.3 GRN (-0.2) 6.3 OTH 4.2 Don’t Know #qldpol]

  47. So here’s the long and short of it for Sinodinos:

    He has to establish that he didnt know that a company he was both Chairman and Director of made donations to the political party that he was treasurer of.

    Short version: He’s GORN.

  50. Sadly for them it takes quite a degree of self deception for these guys to still claim to be middle aged.

    We sexagenarians need a new life stage. I probably won’t see 120 so ‘Middle Aged’ probably isn’t right. I’m not ready to be ‘elderly’, even if I sometimes read news articles about ‘elderly’ people ( normally something bad for them) who are younger than me. Maybe ‘Senior’, although that means old. I’ll settle for ‘middle aged’ as long as I can get away with it.

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