Friday
5.3pm. Further counting in Elder reversed the trend just noted, breaking 1485-1254 Labor’s way and putting the lead at 757, which is very likely more than the number of votes still outstanding. Counting also favoured Labor today in Ashford (347-287, increasing the lead to 820) and Newland (671-652, putting it at 656).
Noon. Declaration votes are flowing fairly strongly the Liberals’ way in Elder, a second batch breaking 528-429. That reduces the Labor lead to 526, and could send it below 300 if the trend continues.
Thursday
8.30pm. The final score for the day from Colton shows Labor gained 1196-1078, putting Paul Caica’s lead at an unassailable 570 with perhaps 1000 votes remaining to be counted. The tide of late counting continued to flood the Liberals’ way in Hartley, today’s batch favouring Liberal candidate Vincent Tarzia over Grace Portolesi by 1685-1204, pushing his lead out to 1131.
5pm. A big addition of votes in Newland breaks 1426-1332, putting Labor’s Tom Kenyon 637 ahead and confirming his victory. In Mitchell, Labor clawed back 39 votes out of 3203 added, but it’s too little too late. Pretty much impossible now not to see a result of Labor 23, Liberal 22, independents two.
4.30pm. Labor has pulled a further 107 ahead with the addition of 1415 votes in Ashford, where Steph Key’s lead is now at 760 and unlikely to change much with perhaps 1000 votes still outstanding. Sykesie reports Labor now 588 ahead in Colton, with postals favouring the Liberals by an insufficient 52-48.
1.30pm. Well-informed commenter Sykesie relates that the morning’s counting in Colton has broken Labor’s way 349-262, putting Labor 539 votes in front and making life all but impossible for the Liberals. Their only hope of making it a twenty-third seat is an unlikely late reversal in Newland, where Labor leads by 543 with declaration vote counting still at an early stage, with about 4000 votes still to count.
Wednesday
11pm. It appears a move from postal to pre-poll counting also staunched the flow in Ashford, where Labor’s Steph Key now looks home and hosed after today’s batch broke only 728-720 to Liberal. This leaves Key 653 in front and projected to win by about 500. Nothing today from Elder or Newland.
6pm. Labor nerves will have steadied considerably with the addition of 970 votes in Colton, which I understand to be pre-polls. These have broken 491-479 in their favour and held their lead at 452. Projecting the existing declaration vote shares over an assumption of about 3000 outstanding votes, Labor emerges over 250 votes in the clear.
1pm. Mitchell continues to trend the Liberals’ way, 980 newly added votes breaking 563-417 and pushing the margin out from 373 to 519.
Tuesday
6pm. It appears the votes counted today were mostly if not entirely postal votes, and they are playing according to the script of favouring the Liberals by virtue of not reflecting the move back to Labor in the final week. On top of what was mentioned previously, today’s counting favoured the Liberals 808-634 in Ashford and 888-767 in Elder, and while that’s likely to be too little too late in Elder, the projected Labor win in Ashford comes down to double figures if the final declaration vote total is presumed to be 6000.
5pm. Encouraging first set of declaration vote numbers for the Liberals in Colton, breaking their way 556-425. If that trend were to play out over a total of 5000 declaration votes – 4000 having been the norm last time, but many more pre-polls apparently having been cast this time – the Liberals would finish about 100 in front. However, it may be that these are absent votes cast over the boundary in a Liberal-leaning part of the electorate, or representative of a particularly strong result for the Liberals on either postals, absent or pre-poll votes that won’t be replicated among the other vote types. UPDATE: I’m told on Twitter that these are postal votes. ECSA doesn’t do breakdowns of declaration votes, but in the corresponding federal seat of Hindmarsh, the Liberal two-party vote in September was 55.4% compared with 53.9% for pre-polls. Absent votes favoured broke 52-48 to Labor, but that’s unlikely to be instructive with respect to Colton.
4pm. The first 1424 added in the only seat that might get Labor to a majority, Mitchell, have broken 782-642 the Liberals’ way, increasing their lead from 233 to 373. If that keeps up, their winning margin will be around 800.
2pm. 1218 votes have been added in Newland, breaking 632-586 to the Liberals and reducing the Labor lead from 589 to 543. If that trend continues, the Liberals will only be able to wear away about 200 votes. However, trends in late counting can be variable, particularly in relation to pre-poll and absent votes which might be cast in particular parts of the electorate or neighbouring electorates. Unfortunately, ECSA doesn’t distinguish between different types of declaration vote in its published results.
Monday night
This post will follow the crucial late counting for the South Australian election, which has so far only dealt with re-checking of the polling booth votes counted on election night. Counting of an estimated 260,000 pre-poll and postal votes begins today, with the Liberals needing multiple miracles to boost them from their likely total of 22 to a majority of 24, and Labor hoping they might yet get there through what presently seems an unlikely win in Mitchell. Labor’s narrowest leads are of 571 votes in Colton (1.6%) and 589 votes in Newland (1.8%), while the Liberal lead in Mitchell is 233 (0.7%).
Spur212 @ 220 ‘Some people on here might remember a user on here named “Bright Ideas” from awhile back’.
10
BRIGHT IDEAS
Posted Saturday, September 20, 2008 at 11:18 am | Permalink
This is a much deserved poll for the SA Government, a terrible do-nothing government which will be plunging down the path taken by the WA Government if they are not careful!
In WA the most powerful election ad run was one which asked views to name three things the Carpenter Government had delivered, you’d have just as much trouble doing this for the Rann Government.
The Rann Government’s motto is ‘if we can spin it once, we will spin it a thousand times.’
The government does nothing, it’s bullying and arrogant and refuses to create an ICAC because it has things to hide.
Senior positions in government are stacked with Labor stooges and backbench MPs are ineffective (look at Bright, the local MP talks about cakeage fees and little else).
The Opposition isn’t perfect and has a lot of work to do to form itself into an alternative government (particularly keeping Hamilton-Smith’s random and pie-in-the-sky ideas out of The Advertiser!) but we’ve just seen a largely dysfunctional opposition elected in WA, so Rann should be very fearful.
His government is dull, he is boring and his Cabinet is arrogant and ineffective.
crikey
Sounds pretty spot on actually.
Replacing Rann with Weatherill turned it all around.
By the way, I have yet to meet anyone who gives a shit about whether Labor or the Libs form government (outside of the PB parallel universe).
And LOTS more on Frome by-election Pollbludger
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/01/17/frome-by-election-live/?comment_page=1/#comments
Dio.
Your contributions (not least) feature on Frome by-election.
A very interesting read.
The EC says prefs will be fully distributed on Sunday afternoon so we can probably put down the glasses then.
crikey
I was pretty spot on looking back.
We got rid of The Marj name and Sherbon got the boot.
Dio
‘By the way, I have yet to meet anyone who gives a shit about whether Labor or the Libs form government (outside of the PB parallel universe).’
I know lots of interested people.
Oh and my thanks too, William.
On your work on Election night and before and since.
The Pollbludger is far and away the go to site for information.
crikey
The plane, the Stones and the footy are waaaaaay ahead with the people I talk to.
To the well-known saying “Happy the country that has no history,” we can add, “happy the country than can afford to think about football rather than politics.”
(The saying derives from Carlyle’s 1864 life of Frederick the Great: “Happy the people whose annals are blank in history.”)
[To the well-known saying “Happy the country that has no history,” we can add, “happy the country than can afford to think about football rather than politics.”]
There’s a lot of truth in that.
Things must be pretty good in general if the footy rates as more important than an election.
Fran would no doubt disagree and say it’s a reflection of the systematic disempowerment of the downtrodden classes by the political elites.
[sspencer_63: SA confirmed at 23 ALP, 22 Lib, 2 Ind RT @JustinDiLollo Liberal Party can’t win Colton from here. ALP best part of 600 in front now.” Great news]
And thats the ball game punters.
I wouldnt give the LNP 1 in 5 of negotiating minority govt from this position.
Odds on, therefore: ALP holds in SA.
Again.
I AM LAUGHING SO HARD!
On scanning the rolls in SA, the Electoral Act has been amended since the Frome by-election so that the counting of declaration votes can begin before the rolls have been scanned. However, the Commission still scanned the rolls for all the closest seats on Monday, the data being available for use in scrutiny of declaration votes.
[Odds on, therefore: ALP holds in SA.]
Yes, but let’s not get carried away. The SA House of Assembly was the last chamber in any Australian parliament in which the ALP held a majority of seats. We are now in a minority in all 15 chambers. Also, we have polled a minority of the two-party vote at the most recent election in every jurisdiction (except Tas and the ACT, which have lower house PR).
Indeed, Psephos. I celebrate relative to comparable disasters.
It was an unexpected bonus, though, presuming the likely does occur from here. And its a real rib-tickler too,with strong elements of farce provided by the SA LOTO.
More broadly, one has to look at the big picture: its not just the ALP, the Tories are coming up short a lot too. One bedeviled by declining voter affilation and socio-economic changes, the other by the rise and rise of rural independents.
The old order is dying and the new is not yet born etc.
It’s also often argued that long-term demographic trends are favouring Labor. The Liberals’ core constituency is middle-class Anglo Protestants, who are declining steadily as a proportion of the electorate. On top of that, young voters of all classes are strongly libertarian, and the Liberals are alienating them over symbolic issues like same-sex marriage and “asylum seekers.” I’m not sure I entirely accept this, since most voters become more conservative as they get older, acquire property and have children. But I think there is something in it.
Next test of the theory that Abbott is dragging down the Tory vote all over Australia: Blain by-election, 5 April. Let’s have a thread for this earth-shattering clash, William!
Thats true, and I agree it isnt all bleak. I have a feeling climate action will be a no-brainer for Gen Next, as SSM clearly is already.
Which reminds me: didn’t Rudd bring back a focus on cities not seen since Whitlam, in the fleeting moment of the 2nd Rudd govt?
Bloody good idea that, even if the execution was brief and poor. ALP could really steal a march there if they work that one up properly.
Lessons from SA,and elsewhere: rural Indies will hand the LNP a headache in the regions, without the ALP spending a red cent. Battles are to be won in the cities.
I guess Weatherill already figured this. Top makrs to the SA ALP on campaign strategy.
But urban policy is there to be owned by some party. Who wants it? The GRNs will have a bloody good go at it if the ALP dont.
Im of the view that much of the heat about asylum seekers is really about mounting traffic, eg.
[By the way, I have yet to meet anyone who gives a shit about whether Labor or the Libs form government (outside of the PB parallel universe).]
Get out more and talk to more people.
More votes up in Ashford – total vote count now 21,647 so less than 1000 votes to count and Labor lead out to 850. I guess mostly postals still to come so lead might retreat a bit.
[More votes up in Ashford – total vote count now 21,647 so less than 1000 votes to count and Labor lead out to 850. I guess mostly postals still to come so lead might retreat a bit.]
1/3 of voters in Ashford were new to the electorate. The fact the Liberals couldn’t win this seat should be a major embarrassment to them.
Latest report from Colton scrutineers:
ALP: 703. 55.35%
LIB: 567. 44.65%
Caica 588 in front.
Postals just started, they are trending 52/48 to Libs.
Looks like more votes up in Light as well. Labor lead now 810 with about 22-2300 votes to go.
Further Colton update:
ALP: 824. 54.3%
LIB: 693. 45.7%
Caica 583 in front.
About 500 postals left. 1000 prepoll/absentee etc
Now the Newland gate is closed – 21,400 counted so maybe 1300 more to count and Labor lead is 637.
Mitchell also all over – maybe only 200 votes to come and Lib lead is 480.
Psephos
The Liberals major constituency are the over 65 cohort. Many of these voters are, how shall we say, mortal. It’s not that younger voters are somehow more libertarian in their views, it’s more that the over 65’s dominant phase politically was the period between 1949 and 1972. Their partisan ID was shaped by that period. When that group starts shuffling off their mortal coil, the Liberal Party’s grip on that age group will have been loosened significantly as the people coming into that age group missed most of the Menzies years. Possum wrote a series of posts about this phenomenon in 2009. It got covered over by the Rudd/Gillard split but now it’s come roaring back again federally (the Coalition couldn’t even get a honeymoon period)
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/15/gen-blue/
How this works out at state level is another story but I’m guessing it’s pretty much the same deal. Will be interesting to see what happens in SA because the next election is 2018, which is around the time this is meant to really come into play
Yes, I remember Possum’s postings on this. I’m a little sceptical. It’s true that the “Menzies generation” is disappearing from the electoral rolls. (The youngest person who voted at the last Menzies election in 1963 is now 72.) But people get more conservative as they get older. There will be a lot of people who voted for Whitlam, or even for Hawke, who now vote for Abbott, and but very few who will have moved the other way. I think the changing class and ethnic composition of the electorate is more important. Both the old unionised Anglo-Irish working class and the old Anglo-Protestant professional and business class are disappearing. They are being replaced by not just one “new class”, but several – a non-Anglo low-skilled working-class; a low-paid non-unionised service industry working class; a highly-educated multi-cultural inner-urban middle class; an ex-working-class small-business class (the “white van” class); etc. Some of these trends favour Labor, some don’t.
The way these postals/prepoll/absentee votes are breaking, does anyone think Hartley can come back into play?
600 lead, >6000 to count. Oh, they would have to break 60-40. Scrap that.
Close of proceedings for the day in Colton:
ALP: 11,337. 51.2%
LIB: 10,767. 48.8%
Caica 570 in front.
With roughly a little less than 1000 left to count tomorrow, libs would need to win the day with approx 78.5%.
Oh, and the latest Hartley counting firms it up for Lib.
I think there’s a feminised low-paid class in there as well, the post-materialists, the relatively unionised low-status professionals (eg teachers, nurses); a welfare class; etc but yes its a different terrain.
Which presumably calls for new policy fronts that can link disparate interests.
There’s no doubt others, but I think quite a few of these fit in to “comfortable, but pissed off about cities not being like the one the grew up in”, annoyed by the difficulty of getting around, parking, picking up kids, especially combined with working longer hours. Population growth and just standard skills immigration combined with poor plannning is behind a lot of this.
For all his faults, Shorto is the type of guy that can do this sort of policy work (eg disability) and I just reckon the future of cities has a lot of votes in it.
Interesting listening to talk back how trying to spin it so Libs can form government. Hello, the most stable is ALP with 23 seats and one of the independents as speaker and the other independent the swing vote. Pretty simple media. Deal with the result and let’s move on.
And bless my mother, lives in Bright electorate near Brighton HS and said yesterday she voted for Chloe Fox, didn’t like the look of Steve Marshall and she can’t stand Abbott. Smart woman, my mother!
Katy Gallagher must be very very cross tonight!
Yeah, and if 2PP is going to be the big issue, let parties know beforehand, so they can:
– campaign in their opponents safe seats, just for the losing vote share
– forget intensive marginal seats campaigns, waste of time
– The Greens, Nats, PUP, FF, Sex and everyone else can stay home on the day: no longer relevant to Australian democracy except as preference detours.
– In fact lets just have two parties listed to save the hassle.
– Ban indies. They only delay the relevant calculations.
– Hell, ban electoral districts. Who gives a crap who won what bit – its the big game!
Congratulations! Youve just invented the world’s first ‘two-party proportional’ system. Duverger is dead.
Well, not much chance of anything other than 23ALP-22LIB-2IND now.
For some reason Elder hasn’t been updated since 18th….but the rest are based on a guess of remaining votes (2010 % turnout with 2014 roll) and (current Lib declaration %):
Ashford: ALP by 700 votes (50.9%)
Elder: ALP by 625 votes but declarations not updated
Newland: ALP by 600 votes (49.4%)
Light: ALP by 800 votes (48.8%)
Colton: ALP by 570 votes (50.0%)
Florey: ALP by 900 votes (52.7%)
Adelaide and Mitchell will be clear Lib wins.
So a 1 seat win with 6 seats within 1000 votes!
YIKES!
Psephos and Lefty e are spot on in highlighting the disparate nature of the electorate and the fact that different trends affect different groups. I think the overseas born are not analysed enough. I think they generally are a conservative influence as migrants are looking for a better life so they are the classic ‘aspirational’ voter. But migrant groups are not all the same. The Anglos, Kiwis, Chinese, Middle Eastern, other Asian, former refugees etc are all different.
[267
Psephos
Posted Thursday, March 20, 2014 at 3:47 pm | PERMALINK
Next test of the theory that Abbott is dragging down the Tory vote all over Australia: Blain by-election, 5 April. Let’s have a thread for this earth-shattering clash, William!]
Followed by the mayoral by-election in Willoughby on 12 April which will be fought out between candidates of shades of blue or green
I can’t wait to see the Abbott effect on the election for Treasurer at the next Enfield Rugby Club AGM.
I suppose it is all over now but at what point do some of these losing candidates concede defeat?
At what point does Marshall concede defeat?
The interesting thing about Mod Lib’s analysis at 286 is that it shows how well Labor’s vote has held up through the declaration vote counting in the 5 key Labor marginals which Labor looks to have held. 50% or better in 3, and not far off 50% in the other 2. This points to a remarkably effective campaign effort in those marginals. Federal Labor could learn a few lessons from the SA Branch I think!
I just wonder why there have been no further updates from Elder?
Update on Elder: http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/2014-state-election-results-summary/house-of-assembly-district-results/pollingboothsummary/711
79% counted. Labor ahead by 526. Declaration votes running at 54.2/45.8 in favour of the Libs. At that rate it will end up desperately close, with around 3,000 votes left to count.
@Outsider, I can see it becoming closer but not enough.
Hypothetically, say 3000 votes left breaking at 57% for the Liberal’s. (1710 for Liberal and 1290 for Labor)
ALP 9364+1290 = 10654
Liberal Party 8838+1710 = 10548
Listening to the Spin Cycle on 891 this morning reminded me so much of the last three years. Everything from the journalists openly pushing for the indies to side with the Liberals, through to questions about Such’s health and whether he will be around for the next four years, through to talk of chaos if they side with Labor. Here we go again!
Of course ECSA doesn’t tell us what type of declaration votes have been counted. The Libs would need to get close to 59% of the outstanding votes to win. I don’t really see that happening. On current trends Labor would still win by 200-250. Whether that is desperately close is a matter of perspective!!!!
Just thought I’d share a photo of the local corfluting a friend took while campaigning up in Whyalla: http://imgur.com/5jbp6V9
[Indeed, Psephos. I celebrate relative to comparable disasters.]
It is a remarkable result considering the national trend in the last few years. There was every reason at a macro level to think that the Libs would get in comfortably.
I am still working out what it means. My current impression is that it is a combination of:
– smart marginal work by Labor
– our weird redistributing rules
– dissatisfaction with Abbott
– perception that SA is at risk re job losses
– people actually quite liking the new hospital and Adelaide Oval (the latter is really great)
– the SA Libs once again running a substance free campaign where their main policy seems to be to assume that they will definitely win and act accordingly
IMHO, assuming it stays this way, it’s a great outcome for SA. Our economy is not strong, and simply could not afford to have another “small government” revolution where half the public service gets sacked. It could push a weak economy into a full blown depression.
tomd – that is gold!
tomd – I think I know who would have won this poll!
While this is probably true, the other issue is Abbott. We know he’s a vindictive man leading a vindictive federal government. I doubt very much that it will not cross the Federal government’s mind to “punish” SA for not electing an LNP government, or at the very least assistance from the Feds that might have been forthcoming if Marshall had gotten up will be absent under Weatherill.
Of course they have to be careful not to threaten Federal LNP seats in SA, but if they think they can blame Weatherill and/or the carbon tax I’m sure they’ll think they’re onto a winner.