This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.
Lets put it another when the Workchoices protests were conducted there was wide spread public support from across the workforce against it and if the unions had carried out surveys they would have shocked the government by showing opposition wasn’t just confined to ALP seats but was widespread.
If it could be shown that there were many upset voters from government held seats thus would strengthen the protest against the government.
rua
Well it is accurate on the character of Abbott.
Jacklo,
“Of course protests can backfire if they are poorly attended or get hijacked by fringe loon groups”.
Ah, the true story of how the Greens established themselves is finally revealed.
We have letter opening machines in Queensland.
But they are called woodchippers.
Not everyone present was protesting against Abbott.
[While Coalition policies were the target for many protesters, Labor was also criticised at the protest with some placing blame on the previous government for bringing back offshore detention.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tens-of-thousands-gather-for-march-in-march-protest-20140316-34v1x.html#ixzz2w6rAHoh9%5D
MB
There were hundreds of people protesting in rural towns. I would think most of those are LNP seats
@FPsych: March in March Perth 2014 – LIVE WTV coverage during the march through the streets of Perth. http://t.co/q2CKXuwGyK
GG
Do you ever have anything nice to say.
We were always taught that if you don’t have anything nice to say don’t say anything at all.
Guytaur
Yes i am aware of a protest in Bendigo, would presume that there would be others which is good to see.
MTBW,
You post here all the time you hypocritical old biddy.
Guytaur,
A lot of the larger regional towns actually lean Labor, such as Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Newcastle, Broken Hill, Townsville, etc
GG
And your point is?
MTBW,
You never learnt your lessons well, did you?
Looks like Nick McKim suffered an 11% swing against him in Franklin.
And a Greens MP (now likely to lose his seat) is blaming Labor for his party’s dismal showing.
[Greens MP Tim Morris topped the Lyons poll in the 2010 election but could now lose his spot.
He is blaming the power-sharing deal with Labor.
“When we after 2010 went into an arrangement with Labor, and remember they were already passed their use-by date at that stage, we knew that we were going to get dragged down with Labor as well,” he said.]
GG
I think I did it is one thing to have a different point of view but sarcastic put downs are not my game – Abbott and Co excluded.
As a unionist who was involved for over 2 years on the Deakin YRAW campaign, including campaign strategy…
…. identifying swinging voters to target was a major objective.
The campaign’s goal of getting ALP Mike Symon elected was achieved.
mb:
The parts of the YRAW campaign that I saw were pretty good – namely the TV adverts. I wasn’t one of those affected by Workchoices, but I knew people who potentially were, and the adverts seemed to reflect their concerns well. Esp that woman trying to find care for her kids.
Bugler
Yes but I did say rural towns. Mike was at a regional one in Wollongong.
Hope people caught our own BillBo on ABC24 last night spruiking the SA numbers, as a mini Antony Green – I reckon if he could just chubby up his face a bit, he would be a dead ringer.
Oooh goody, 4 corners is after Downer over Timor bugging. That could be fun.
Confessions,
I always thought that when the Greens had to accept responsibility they’d suffer electorally.
Pegasus,
I cast my first (non-Council) vote for Symon last year.
Fessy
True that was one of the best run campaigns in the history of the union movement not just because the subject was straight-forward but the professional that they went about it.
sprocket:
I thought William was a natural last night. A clear successor to Green when he retires.
I have no idea of the Scottish nationalist arguments, or the opposite arguments. It just seems silly to think that any island about 700 x 400 miles in area being anything more than one country. How about everyone stop squabbling over which Monarch drew which line where, and horse-traded other bits ever, and get along with each other?
MTBW,
Your personal perception is different to the reality I’m afraid.
But, you keep living in that “Never Never Land”. It’s all you’ve got.
@PeterFosterALP: 58 “March In March” Photos That Will Give You Goosebumps
http://t.co/srHx9wN3FH #MarchInMarch #auspol #wapol
Bugler:
Another way of looking at last night in Tas is that the Green vote is usually inflated in pre election polling, yet falls short at the actual election.
I saw Bilbo but didn’t hear him, the Frances Bedford’s election-count party was too noisy.
I note that the Greens have not yet quite grasped the main point of the past decade.
In government, everything and every Party they touch, turns to shite.
In opposition they achieve nothing.
In between, they treat the rest of us to hectoring, lecturing, and moral instruction.
Bugler
I don’t blame the Greens for ‘taking’ Labor votes, especially given that the ones they take come back to Labor as preferences.
As I said, before the Greens, disaffected Labor voters went to the Democrats.
What I have said – read it again – is that: 1. Many voters vote Green as a protest vote – they may assume Greens policies are better than Labor’s, but they haven’t actually sat down and looked at them, it’s more a ‘vibe’; 2. You can’t talk of ‘The Greens’ and ‘Green voters’ as if they’re the same thing. Labor gets Greens preferences not because ‘The Greens’ direct them to Labor but because 80% of those who vote Green decide to put Labor second.
I don’t think anything I’ve said bears out the idea that I’m grumpy at people for voting Green ahead of Labor. I think that many of them do so based on misplaced assumptions, but I’d say that about almost any voters for any Party, because most people vote on ‘the vibe’.
MTBW@2408
This is one of the few occasions when I thought it was rather a witty riposte and not really offensive.
Oh well… 🙁
Jackol@2420
That cannot be! I read PB and am constantly told it is ‘their ABC’. 😆
bemussed,
No one would ever accuse you of making a witty riposte.
[4 corners is after Downer over Timor bugging]
Lord Dolly will accurately plead that he is an idiot and had no idea what his Dept was doing in his name, he has no shame.
ruawake – possibly, but the brief clip in the short had him talking about how the Australian government should be acting in the interests of Australian business … possibly taken out of context, we’ll see, but potentially quite damning.
Greensborough Growler@2433
I see you’ve returned to form.
Greensborough Growler@2433
Ahhh, back to the old GG. Didn’t last for long did it? 🙁
What the hell happened there?
Made a post, it didn’t appear. Refreshed a couple of times, still not there. Posted on same point and there they both are.
[I thought William was a natural last night. A clear successor to Green when he retires.]
Couldn’t agree more.
He even had the easy banter and droll wit down pat.
A star is born.
Dio
He is our star. Or are we just Bilbo’s serfs slaving in his psaphy mines? 🙂
MTBW@2408
MTBW, GG is a sad puppy.
He is highly intelligent, can analyse arguments really well, occasionally makes great posts, getting to the nub of the discussion, but he is at base a very sad person.
He finds the worst in every situation. He is not happy, and tries to make others unhappy.
I feel very sorry for him.
ok. put up that iron wall for a few years, watch the ruble and stocks and russia go south economically – they were defeated once economically it can happen again – europe and us will get richer with that rump totalitarian state – pump up ukraine and let crimea suffer (a majority there dont want anything to do with russia, and they can’t vote for their preference ) – noone will trust their little prick again. the only fascists seen lately are his pink stormtrooper saluting and goose-stepping around moscow
geoffrey@2442
Any time a country does not conform to the rule of law, eventually things go south.
You can extract for a long time, but take what you want, and pay for it.
Putin is in the extractive phase, and he can get rich on that. He is rich on that.
But eventually karma has its revenge. He might go to his grave thinking he has won – but his successors will find it otherwise.
bemused@2438
You posted close to the 8pm witching hour.
Here there be dragons.
don
the karma is economic. and reputation. he has already lost more than he knows – already lost all. as a time when US and EU in relative disarray he has produced a new found unity and cooperation – NATO will be reborn, EU economic reborn – every bordering ex USSR state will cut the mad bear loose in its own paddock – i feel sorry for dissenters within the wrinkled empire. the majority of crimea dont want russia – why else is the no option in vote for status quo?
boerwar
green leader is tassie as late as thursday!!!! said aim not to keep bastards honest but replace the bastards. this was prompted by slight prospect of green earning a seat more than labor and becoming official opposition!! phyric victory indeed which never happened. what dishonor to an allied parties – labour defeat celebrated –
from the guardian blog
“If the annexation of the Crimea by armed force leads the West to do something about its dependence on Russian gas, scale back investment in Russia, shove out Russian mafia in London and above all, re-build MI5 and 6’s capability vis a vis Russia, re-build credible NATO defences in the East and guarantee the borders of the Ukraine, then we will be in much better shape to resist Putins next territorial demand, which will not be long in coming.”
Geoffrey, look at the situation from Putin’s point of view.
He does not care what the rest of the world thinks. He has incredible power, he can push the nuclear button if he decides on that path, he can take over the Crimea on a whim.
He does not care a fig for reputation. As someone powerful once said about the Pope, ‘How many divisions does he have?’
Economics? He has light, water, warmth and coolth on demand. He has yes men and women who cater to his every whim. He is the Czar of Russia. He need fear no one.
The Crimea will fall to Russia, there is no doubt of that. It is happening as we speak, and the inhabitants will think it is a good thing. Most of them, anyhow.
With the Crimea goes its offshore oil and gas reserves, more warm water ports should they be needed, and power and prestige.
The reckoning is still to come. But come it will.
don
[
The Crimea will fall to Russia, there is no doubt of that.]
Aren’t they technically going for “independence” rather falling to Russia.
geoffrey@2447
Geoffrey, that is garbage.
The west can do nothing about Russia at the moment, and it is time they realised that. They cannot guarantee the borders of the Ukraine, that is ridiculous. What are they going to do, send in gunships? Give me a break.